Article: Busting 3 Myths About The Twins Offseason

[Doomtints]

 

And I also pointed out that the Giants won it with a pitching staff WAR of 9 and the Cards did it with an 8. Or the Astros relatively low 13 this year. It's not just the Royals. There are a lot of exceptions to whatever arbitrary line you are making. And the Dodgers and Nationals (and Tigers) have failed in the postseason with some of the greatest pitching staffs ever.  You can win the World Series if your #1 starter is just a 4 WAR type pitcher. It's happened a lot over the last few years.

 

There are a lot of ways for the Twins to move from an 85 win team to 90+. Improving the bullpen and rotation seem like the easiest. That doesn't mean that the Twins need to waste 160m on Darvish (and we have 20 years of history that says we won't do that). Adding Cobb to our nucleus could be enough. Berrios looks like a stud in the making. If those are your first two arms and Santana is #3, that's not a bad rotation on paper. We have two top 100 prospects in AAA this year (Romero and Gonsalves) and a few other arms not far behind that are worth being excited about (Thorpe being a really intriguing sleeper) as well.

 

Yes, the Astros were a mediocre pitching team, but they may have had the best hitting in the league.

And as banal as the Astros pitching was, it was still +6 WAA from the Twins. The Twins have to add a lot of talent to get up to where the Astros are! Add three more Santanas and you are just about there.

Edited November 4, 2017 by Doomtints

[jimmer]

The Astros were 6th in MLB for pitching fWAR at a robust 20.8 fWAR.  They were also 2nd in K/9 IP, 6th in FIP and 3rd in xFIP.

 

I want that kind of mediocre pitching for the Twins, cause that's championship caliber pitching.

Edited November 4, 2017 by jimmer

[Rhino and Compass]

I'd rather the Twins consider expanding their payroll, but I think the best way to do so is by extending the players they want to go the long haul with now.

Pitching free agency is such a dangerous minefield, I am always skeptical of those big contracts to free agent pitchers. It's such a gamble that can go so wrong. You need good depth to a rotation, and will investing a lot of money into one guy hurt the chances of building out a full pitching staff? I don't know.

 

The nice thing about extending players is you know which prospects will be blocked, and can decide which positions are positions of strength. Trade from a position of strength, acquire younger cheaper starters and win that way. 

[ashbury]

The nice thing about extending players is you know which prospects will be blocked, and can decide which positions are positions of strength.

Does making it obvious damage the trade value of the blocked prospects?

[Broker]

I think the Pohlads will spend whatever the FO guys want. I don't think money is an issue. Owning the Twins is a hobby for them not a business.

 

[Mr. Brooks]

I think the Pohlads will spend whatever the FO guys want. I don't think money is an issue. Owning the Twins is a hobby for them not a business.

Do you have any evidence of this? Quotes, anything whatsoever that would suggest that?

The evidence we have, from prior spending, to statements about revenue to payroll philosophy, to direct quotes from the new FO regarding spending suggests the opposite- that it has been, and will continue to operate as a business.

[Rhino and Compass]

 

Does making it obvious damage the trade value of the blocked prospects?

Not if you let it, I don't think. There is still a supply and demand principle at play for the top talent, even for prospect depth. If a team has two options, they aren't going to take the lesser just because the Twins don't need the players they are offering nearly as much. 

[Broker]

 

Do you have any evidence of this? Quotes, anything whatsoever that would suggest that?
The evidence we have, from prior spending, to statements about revenue to payroll philosophy, to direct quotes from the new FO regarding spending suggests the opposite- that it has been, and will continue to operate as a business.

On more than one occasion Ryan said the Pohlads never told him not spend. Also the Twins are minuscule part of the Pohlad's holdings. The Pohlads are worth billions. Business wise there is no reason to own the Twins. They aren't doing it for the money so I figure they are doing it for fun.

[old nurse]

 

One of the secrets of the Astros is that they kept payroll low until advantageous and timely opportunities came up to acquire expensive players like McCann and Verlander. They didn’t bother paying free agency rates for pitchers hoping to achieve 3 WAR. If they had, they might not have had the payroll room to take Verlander for the next few years.

Their second secret is that they didn’t look at players as finished goods or judge them on their reputations, which is what the Twins have done. This attitude allowed them to look at Charlie Morton and see what he could become, instead of looking only at what he was already.

Third is that they looked in volume, as opposed to saying they needed to get one pitcher who is just better than what they had already, which is a small increase in WAR and places all of your chips on one bet.

Morton has always been a very good pitcher when healthy.  The Astros took a  medium level risk and won.

[old nurse]

 

On more than one occasion Ryan said the Pohlads never told him not spend. Also the Twins are minuscule part of the Pohlad's holdings. The Pohlads are worth billions. Business wise there is no reason to own the Twins. They aren't doing it for the money so I figure they are doing it for fun.

Business wise, what is the value of the franchise when they bought it versus now? Business wise it is one of the best returns they ever have. The set up does not lose money and just sits there and appreciates

[Broker]

 

Business wise, what is the value of the franchise when they bought it versus now? Business wise it is one of the best returns they ever have. The set up does not lose money and just sits there and appreciates

Twins president Jerry Bell once remarked the Eloise Pohlad—Carl’s wife, and undoubtedly the biggest Twins fan ever in the family—liked the team particularly because it was a family thing.

 

The value of the Twins is chump change for the Pohlads. Billions make millions seem small.

[old nurse]

 

 

Does making it obvious damage the trade value of the blocked prospects?

Last Twin prospect of note traded that was blocked was Chris Hermann?  My gosh, Kurt Suzuki was blocking Chris Herrmann.  It might have been the best blocking of the plate he ever did in his career as a Twin.

[Nick Nelson]

 

Wouldn’t adding to the top over the winter and hoping May or Romero prove worthy of being added during the season be a plan much more likely to succeed?

Sure, and I'd be all for it. I just won't feel like the offseason is a failure if they don't do so. I think they have enough quality numbers. Though I do like the idea of swapping out Santana for a superior longer-term option, as outlined in the Handbook blueprint.  

[gunnarthor]

 

On more than one occasion Ryan said the Pohlads never told him not spend. Also the Twins are minuscule part of the Pohlad's holdings. The Pohlads are worth billions. Business wise there is no reason to own the Twins. They aren't doing it for the money so I figure they are doing it for fun.

I tend to think that Ryan took a lot of bullets for the Pohlad family. We'll see what happens now.

 

One thing that has always bothered me about the ownership is that they had years where they 'saved' money by playing the young guys but they've never saved that money for seasons where going over was needed.

[gunnarthor]

 

 

Yes, the Astros were a mediocre pitching team, but they may have had the best hitting in the league.

And as banal as the Astros pitching was, it was still +6 WAA from the Twins. The Twins have to add a lot of talent to get up to where the Astros are! Add three more Santanas and you are just about there.

Sure, there are ways to improve other than pitching although that's the obvious upgrade. But they don't need us making Anibal Sanchez contracts. Would you agree that a rotation (ignoring the bullpen for a moment) of Berrios, Alex Cobb and Ervin Santana could be a good enough top 3 for a playoff team?

[Deduno Abides]

Sure, and I'd be all for it. I just won't feel like the offseason is a failure if they don't do so. I think they have enough quality numbers. Though I do like the idea of swapping out Santana for a superior longer-term option, as outlined in the Handbook blueprint.

 

If the season is going well, it could be interesting to push some chips onto the table at mid-season and get 2018’s version of Cueto, Price, Darvish and Verlander.

[old nurse]

 

Twins president Jerry Bell once remarked the Eloise Pohlad—Carl’s wife, and undoubtedly the biggest Twins fan ever in the family—liked the team particularly because it was a family thing.

 

The value of the Twins is chump change for the Pohlads. Billions make millions seem small.

The current valuation of the Twins is around a billion.  Valuations of the Pohlad fortune is at around 4 billion. The Twins are hardly chump change in their pocket.  It can be a fun thing, but being fun doesn't change the position in the Pohlad portfolio

[old nurse]

 

 

Sure, there are ways to improve other than pitching although that's the obvious upgrade. But they don't need us making Anibal Sanchez contracts. Would you agree that a rotation (ignoring the bullpen for a moment) of Berrios, Alex Cobb and Ervin Santana could be a good enough top 3 for a playoff team?

When the pitch well, yes. If they pitch like Verlander did in 06 or Darvish in this WS, no. You need good pitchers, you also need them to pitch well when it counts.

[jimmer]

If our plan is to count on the starters we have and then add to the BACK part of the rotation, that is a bad plan.  Cause we have enough back end starters, in fact, that's mostly what we have.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

 

You know what happens when you rely on unproven prospects to fill an MLB spot in the rotation?

You get Adam Wilk, Tim Melville, broken Phil Hughes, Nick Tepesch, Felix Jorge, Aaron Slegers, Dillon Gee, Nik Turley, and Big Sexy starting games for you.

Sign a gol dang impact SP.

I agree 100%

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Sign Darvish. Period.

[Kwak]

 

Sign Darvish. Period.

He has as much as possible said that he will rejoin Texas. 

 

A myth often expounded in TD is that top talent (like Verlander) would sign here if the Twins offered just a bit more money. JV thought about not approving the trade to HOU, but ultimately changed his mind because he believed that they could win the WS.  I can't think of any top player having that confidence in the Twins.

Edited November 5, 2017 by Kwak

[gunnarthor]

 

He has as much as possible said that he will rejoin Texas. 

 

A myth often expounded in TD is that top talent (like Verlander) would sign here if the Twins offered just a bit more money. JV thought about not approving the trade to HOU, but ultimately changed his mind because he believed that they could win the WS.  I can't think of any top player having that confidence in the Twins.

Actually, I would doubt that. With our young offensive talent, I would imagine most pitchers would say "yeah, I'm what they need."  But ownership is going to limit what bin we can look in. If we can get a Cobb like signing, that's probably the best we could realistically hope for.

[beckmt]

We need the 'Ace'.  Cobb could be a fine secondary piece, but this is the year to go large and many of the teams are waiting for next year.

[Deduno Abides]

He has as much as possible said that he will rejoin Texas. 

 

A myth often expounded in TD is that top talent (like Verlander) would sign here if the Twins offered just a bit more money. JV thought about not approving the trade to HOU, but ultimately changed his mind because he believed that they could win the WS.  I can't think of any top player having that confidence in the Twins.

Nobody would have said it about Houston a year or two ago, either. If things go right, they may say it about the Twins in the next year or two.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

My point was that someone like May or Romero could be the addition to the top. And keeping the door open for them maintains roster/payroll flexibility. As I mentioned, you can always add during the season when you have a better idea of how things are shaping up.

in 2018 May or Romero could be a top 25 MLB starting pitcher for the Twins?

 

Having that upside, and having that upside in 2018 are two different things.

 

The window for the core to compete is finite. Can’t wait for someday

Edited November 5, 2017 by Sconnie

[Platoon]

Myth 1©. If one yearns for an uptick in payroll spending, using Bill Smith as an example will likely not encourage Falvine to follow that path to unemployment. .

[tarheeltwinsfan]

 

He has as much as possible said that he will rejoin Texas. 

 

A myth often expounded in TD is that top talent (like Verlander) would sign here if the Twins offered just a bit more money. JV thought about not approving the trade to HOU, but ultimately changed his mind because he believed that they could win the WS.  I can't think of any top player having that confidence in the Twins.

Are you saying top players won't sign with Minnesota because....why? No chance to win as a Twin? Too cold? Lack of "big time" media coverage?  Low salaries? I

[prouster]

 

[Darvish] has as much as possible said that he will rejoin Texas. 

 

This actually doesn't seem to be the case:

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/11/rumors-cards-stanton-yelich-rangers-yu-cobb-tribe.html

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/11/quick-hits-yu-rangers-mariners-brantley-d-backs-nats.html

 

It'll be interesting to see how the market plays out for FA starters. With Tanaka choosing not to opt out, there's one less high profile arm available. However, some of the usual big spenders seem like they may be reluctant to add a large contract this offseason, when next year's class is packed with so much more youth and talent. MLBTR predicts Darvish going to the Cubs for 6/160, which amounts to just over 26 million AAV. This seems about right, but I wonder if his market might be somewhat depressed due to his injury history, relatively modest output in 2017, and the fact that there are several enticing options that will certainly cost less. That could open the door to a non-traditional spender (maybe or maybe not the Twins) plunking down some cash.

 

That said, I'd rather see the Twins target a cheaper starter so that they can also fill out their pen with a couple arms and extend Buxton and/or others.

Edited November 5, 2017 by prouster

[tarheeltwinsfan]

 

I just want a pitcher who will be better than the merry-go-round of AAAA/unproven pitchers we've seen over the years. Cobb could fit that mold. Lynn could fit it too. Darvish is a pipe dream but would certainly fit. Or make a trade for someone who isn't a FA. 

 

If the playoffs this year and last have shown us anything, it's the Twins are not even close in the pitching department. I believe the offense could survive, and WIN a playoff series or two. With the current pitching staff as it is? No chance they would win a 5 or 7 game series. 

What if the Twins build a strong bullpen, ala Yankees this year and Royals when they won it all recently?