Article: Busting 3 Myths About The Twins Offseason

[USAFChief]

I'll believe 1 isn't a myth when it's proven not to be.

 

2 shouldn't be put forth as a myth...the Twins need better pitchers than they've assembled. You do that by adding to the top, not the bottom.

[Thrylos]

I'd love to hear the name of the last team that made it to the World Series without an impact pitcher (or 2.)

 

If the goal is to snick in the post-season as a wild card and go belly up again, nope, they do not need to add an impact pitcher...

[Nick Nelson]

I think some are missing the point of this post a little bit. 

 

To be clear, I'm not saying the Twins will spend $120M+, only that we shouldn't treat it as a given they won't. It seems like a lot of people are conditioned to think a certain way, or making assumptions based on how they've operated over the past 5 years while out of contention, or in the pre-Target Field days. The fact that people are pointing back to how the franchise spent in the early 2000s only reinforces why I made the point.

 

And I'm certainly not saying the Twins SHOULDN'T add an impact starter, only that they COULD keep roughly the same staff and still take a meaningful step forward.

 

Do the people saying things to the effect of "If they don't spend on a FA they'll end up with pitchers like Hughes and Nolasco in the rotation" realize the irony of their statements? 

[Nick Nelson]

 

I'll believe 1 isn't a myth when it's proven not to be.

2 shouldn't be put forth as a myth...the Twins need better pitchers than they've assembled. You do that by adding to the top, not the bottom.

My point was that someone like May or Romero could be the addition to the top. And keeping the door open for them maintains roster/payroll flexibility. As I mentioned, you can always add during the season when you have a better idea of how things are shaping up. 

[Nick Nelson]

 

Article: "Know what happened the last time the Twins planned for a season with true championship aspirations? They set a franchise record for payroll, under Bill Smith, at $113 million. That was in 2011, when they were coming off their last playoff appearance."

 

Wikipedia: "The Twins fired Smith as general manager on November 7, 2011, and replaced him with his predecessor, Ryan."

 

Is there any doubt the new front office is aware of this history? As a few others have stated, it's not a myth until it's proven wrong. 

Did Smith get fired for spending money or for spending money poorly? Speculation aside, he was green-lighted for an all-time record payroll the last time the Twins had legit championship aspirations. That is the pertinent fact here. 

[Vanimal46]

 

Which one would you like? Kevin Correia, Vance Worley, Phil Hughes, Ricky Nolasco, Mike Pelfrey???? It's not that the Twins haven't tried, but it's a big crap shoot. And you don't just sign somebody. There has to be a mutual agreement between a player and a team. I'm not convinced Yu Darvish would come to Minnesota regardless of the money offered. I think he would accept less money to be in a community with a significant Japanese influence. or return to the Rangers where he felt very comfortable. At the ridiculous salaries offered to free agents, what's a few million?

 

 

Alex Cobb, Lance Lynn, if we want to talk about a pipe dream Darvish.... Or trade for an impact SP with the players down in the minors. 

 

Frankly all of those pitchers would have more of an impact than most every pitcher we've seen over the last 5-6-7 years. 

[Vanimal46]

 

I'm not entirely with you on the premise.   Every successful or impact SP was an unproven prospect at one time that some one promoted to fill a spot in the rotation.   World Series contention is what happened when Cleveland relied on Salazar and Kluver to fill spots in their rotation and I could probably come up with dozens of other examples but you get the drift.   Of course there are plenty of examples of going the other way.   I am still on the Cobb band wagon and think he could have a very big impact on our rotation though don't know if he would fit your definition of impact SP.  If he does then I am completely on board with your last sentence. 

 

  If the Twins came out of the gate with that signing like they did with Castro a year ago I would immediately rate their off season a B+.     

 

As far as myths go I agree with Sconnie.   If you think myth 2 is not a myth then myth one becomes pointless.    

 

I just want a pitcher who will be better than the merry-go-round of AAAA/unproven pitchers we've seen over the years. Cobb could fit that mold. Lynn could fit it too. Darvish is a pipe dream but would certainly fit. Or make a trade for someone who isn't a FA. 

 

If the playoffs this year and last have shown us anything, it's the Twins are not even close in the pitching department. I believe the offense could survive, and WIN a playoff series or two. With the current pitching staff as it is? No chance they would win a 5 or 7 game series. 

[Thrylos]

 

Which one would you like? Kevin Correia, Vance Worley, Phil Hughes, Ricky Nolasco, Mike Pelfrey???? It's not that the Twins haven't tried, but it's a big crap shoot.

 

 

Dumpster Diving and Spendtrifting, both TR trademarks, are a big crap shoot.    If you are going for quantity vs. quality, that's what you get.

 

The Twins should go after two top 20 pitchers.  They have not done that since MacPhail. 

 

 

 

 

[gunnarthor]

 

I'd love to hear the name of the last team that made it to the World Series without an impact pitcher (or 2.)

 

If the goal is to snick in the post-season as a wild card and go belly up again, nope, they do not need to add an impact pitcher...

Might depend on what you mean by impact. The Royals won the WS when their best pitcher was Edison Volquez and Chris Young. Obviously, they had a great bullpen and amazing team defense. The 2015 Mets pitching staff wasn't that great either but was certainly better than the Twins this year. The 2014 Giants had a team ERA+ of 99 but rode Bumgarner (4.0 WAR pitcher) and Jake Peavy down the stretch. They beat a Royals team with 3 solid starters but none had a WAR above 4.  The 2012 Giants pitching staff was actually worse than 2014. Bumgarner and Cain were both good but again both were sub 4.0 WAR pitchers. 2011 Cards had Chris Carpenter and nothing - Kyle Lohse was their second best starter.

 

So a World Series team doesn't need a bunch of 4+ WAR pitchers. That helps, of course. But could Berrios and, say, Alex Cobb and Ervin Santana be a strong enough front of the rotation for the Twins? Maybe?

 

 

[Deduno Abides]

Did Smith get fired for spending money or for spending money poorly? Speculation aside, he was green-lighted for an all-time record payroll the last time the Twins had legit championship aspirations. That is the pertinent fact here.

 

Memory is that Smith was offered another position in the organization because of a series of bad trades while he was GM, and not for spending.

 

Smith’s worst free agent signing was Nishioka, who wasn’t expensive. Smith had no idea whether it was a good idea; he was just reacting to Gardy’s dissatisfaction with Hardy and the scouting assessment of Nishioka. It wasn’t the money; it was the outcome.

[Thrylos]

 

Might depend on what you mean by impact. The Royals won the WS when their best pitcher was Edison Volquez and Chris Young. Obviously, they had a great bullpen and amazing team defense. The 2015 Mets pitching staff wasn't that great either but was certainly better than the Twins this year. The 2014 Giants had a team ERA+ of 99 but rode Bumgarner (4.0 WAR pitcher) and Jake Peavy down the stretch. They beat a Royals team with 3 solid starters but none had a WAR above 4.  The 2012 Giants pitching staff was actually worse than 2014. Bumgarner and Cain were both good but again both were sub 4.0 WAR pitchers. 2011 Cards had Chris Carpenter and nothing - Kyle Lohse was their second best starter.

 

So a World Series team doesn't need a bunch of 4+ WAR pitchers. That helps, of course. But could Berrios and, say, Alex Cobb and Ervin Santana be a strong enough front of the rotation for the Twins? Maybe?

 

The Royals were 3rd in the AL in team ERA in 2015 and 4th in 2014.  Plus that pen.

 

The Mets in 2015 had Harvey, deGroom and Thor with ERAs 2 under 3, the other 3.25 and WHIPs around 1.000.

 

The 2014 Giants had Bumgarner and Peavy with 2.98 and 2.12 ERAs and WHIP around 1.000, as well as 5 relievers with WHIP under or around 1.000

 

The 2012 Giants had 5 starters with 184+ IP, headed by Cain (2.79 ERA, 1.040 WHIP) and Bumgarner (3.37 ERA, 1.114 WHIP)

 

The 2011 Cardinals had 4 starters with 183+ IP, 4 starters with ~3.50 ERA, and 5 relievers at 1.000 WHIP or under, 3 of them under 2.30 ERA.

 

Are the Twins projected to have anything close to that if they sit on their rear ends?   Esp. with Santana regressing.

[Nick Nelson]

 

The Royals were 3rd in the AL in team ERA in 2015 and 4th in 2014.  Plus that pen.

Not plus that pen, BECAUSE of that pen. They were 12th in the AL in SP ERA in 2015, when they won the World Series.

[gunnarthor]

 

The Royals were 3rd in the AL in team ERA in 2015 and 4th in 2014.  Plus that pen.

 

The Mets in 2015 had Harvey, deGroom and Thor with ERAs 2 under 3, the other 3.25 and WHIPs around 1.000.

 

The 2014 Giants had Bumgarner and Peavy with 2.98 and 2.12 ERAs and WHIP around 1.000, as well as 5 relievers with WHIP under or around 1.000

 

The 2012 Giants had 5 starters with 184+ IP, headed by Cain (2.79 ERA, 1.040 WHIP) and Bumgarner (3.37 ERA, 1.114 WHIP)

 

The 2011 Cardinals had 4 starters with 183+ IP, 4 starters with ~3.50 ERA, and 5 relievers at 1.000 WHIP or under, 3 of them under 2.30 ERA.

 

Are the Twins projected to have anything close to that if they sit on their rear ends?   Esp. with Santana regressing.

I think you're taking a few things out of context (again) and moving goalposts. You originally suggested that teams need one or two "impact" pitchers. Now you want to look at staffs. Either way, it really just depends on what you think of as impact.

 

For example, the Cards 4 starters were pitching in the NL. Carpenter was legit good but Jackson and Garcia had WARs under 1.0, Westbrook was in negative territory. Lohse was 2.3. They had some good relief pitchers but overall, it wasn't that impressive. Team wise, they had 9 WAR. Frankly, they really weren't too far off from where the Twins were this year.

 

The 2012 Giants had 5 starters w/184ip. That is true. What you didn't mention was that Lincecum was really, really bad and, as a staff, they managed only 8 WAR. I did mention that Cain and Bumgarner were their two best pitchers but neither was anything special.  

 

You didn't say anything really different than what I said about the 2014 Giants squad.  Casilla, Machi, Affeldt were all good relief arms for them that year. They had a solid pen but I don't think anyone on that staff would be called impactful. And if they are, then yes, the Twins could find some similar arms.

 

The Mets certainly had better arms than these Giant and Cards teams but again, they didn't really have anything too impactful. They had a couple guys with 4+ WAR seasons but not above it. Could a Berrios, Cobb, Santana front three (as I suggested) come close to what the Mets group kicked out? Maybe. 

Edited November 3, 2017 by gunnarthor

[TwinsWonWithHunter]

Another note on myth 1. Not to kick up an old tired wound but ...

In Dec 02, the Twins non-tendered David Ortiz. Why? To save a little over a million dollars.

I remember the discussions well. The Twins had a young, power-hitting left-handed hitter who was their best power hitter since Hrbek. He (Ortiz) had just come off a 400 at-bat, 20 HR season. Even the most conservative and measured estimates concluded that, if you give him 550 at bats, he'll hit about 30 HR, drive in 90+.

But, he was arbitration-eligible, and was projected to bring in somewhere from 1.5 to 2 million.

So, the Twins (penny counters), came up with a rationalization.

We'll let Ortiz go. Make Matt LeCroy the nominal DH, pay him about 500K. LeCroy can probably give us 15 HR, 60 RBI. And we will platoon him with "the bench"--a bunch of guys who can spell DH for a game here and there, keep our options open, keep guys fresh. And when it's all said and done, the DH slot will probably be in the ballpark, statwise, of the projected Ortiz numbers. And if it's a little short, We'll make it up in the aggregate on the defensive end, since our rotating DH slot guys are pretty decent when they play their field positions. Whereas Ortiz can only play one position, and he is sort of a field liability.

So, we can save about 1.5 million in 2003, and we will have more day-to-day rotational options. It's hard to put a price on that!

The argument had so many angles to it that you could almost buy it in real-time. Almost.

And I am not stretching the truth one jot. What I just described is how the Twins sold that bill of goods during the 2002/2003 off-season.

The elephant in the room of course is that we knowingly let an up and coming power hitter walk, and we did it to keep a dollar.

The same family owns the Twins. They are not going to increase payroll beyond some nominal tick.

[Kwak]

 

Another note on myth 1. Not to kick up an old tired wound but ...
In Dec 02, the Twins non-tendered David Ortiz. Why? To save a little over a million dollars.
I remember the discussions well. The Twins had a young, power-hitting left-handed hitter who was their best power hitter since Hrbek. He (Ortiz) had just come off a 400 at-bat, 20 HR season. Even the most conservative and measured estimates concluded that, if you give him 550 at bats, he'll hit about 30 HR, drive in 90+.
But, he was arbitration-eligible, and was projected to bring in somewhere from 1.5 to 2 million.
So, the Twins (penny counters), came up with a rationalization.
We'll let Ortiz go. Make Matt LeCroy the nominal DH, pay him about 500K. LeCroy can probably give us 15 HR, 60 RBI. And we will platoon him with "the bench"--a bunch of guys who can spell DH for a game here and there, keep our options open, keep guys fresh. And when it's all said and done, the DH slot will probably be in the ballpark, statwise, of the projected Ortiz numbers. And if it's a little short, We'll make it up in the aggregate on the defensive end, since our rotating DH slot guys are pretty decent when they play their field positions. Whereas Ortiz can only play one position, and he is sort of a field liability.
So, we can save about 1.5 million in 2003, and we will have more day-to-day rotational options. It's hard to put a price on that!
The argument had so many angles to it that you could almost buy it in real-time. Almost.
And I am not stretching the truth one jot. What I just described is how the Twins sold that bill of goods during the 2002/2003 off-season.
The elephant in the room of course is that we knowingly let an up and coming power hitter walk, and we did it to keep a dollar.
The same family owns the Twins. They are not going to increase payroll beyond some nominal tick.

You should have added: and LeCroy would satisfy Gardy's requirement for 3 Catchers.

[Thrylos]

 

I think you're taking a few things out of context (again) and moving goalposts. You originally suggested that teams need one or two "impact" pitchers. Now you want to look at staffs. Either way, it really just depends on what you think of as impact.

 

For example, the Cards 4 starters were pitching in the NL. Carpenter was legit good but Jackson and Garcia had WARs under 1.0, Westbrook was in negative territory. Lohse was 2.3. They had some good relief pitchers but overall, it wasn't that impressive. Team wise, they had 9 WAR. Frankly, they really weren't too far off from where the Twins were this year.

 

The 2012 Giants had 5 starters w/184ip. That is true. What you didn't mention was that Lincecum was really, really bad and, as a staff, they managed only 8 WAR. I did mention that Cain and Bumgarner were their two best pitchers but neither was anything special.  

 

You didn't say anything really different than what I said about the 2014 Giants squad.  Casilla, Machi, Affeldt were all good relief arms for them that year. They had a solid pen but I don't think anyone on that staff would be called impactful. And if they are, then yes, the Twins could find some similar arms.

 

The Mets certainly had better arms than these Giant and Cards teams but again, they didn't really have anything too impactful. They had a couple guys with 4+ WAR seasons but not above it. Could a Berrios, Cobb, Santana front three (as I suggested) come close to what the Mets group kicked out? Maybe. 

 

WAR is what got them to the post-season.  WAR does not matter in the post-season.   Rate stats, do matter more.  Verlander's WAR with the Astros was very small (because he did not play much.)  But he was essential for their off-season.  No Verlander no WS.   WAR is a very bad metric for this.

[gunnarthor]

 

WAR is what got them to the post-season.  WAR does not matter in the post-season.   Rate stats, do matter more.  Verlander's WAR with the Astros was very small (because he did not play much.)  But he was essential for their off-season.  No Verlander no WS.   WAR is a very bad metric for this.

Sure, WAR is just one stat, I've also pointed out the low ERA+ as well. The point is we need better starters. But better starters could mean Cobb and not Darvish, for instance. 

[Doomtints]

 

I'd love to hear the name of the last team that made it to the World Series without an impact pitcher (or 2.)

 

If the goal is to snick in the post-season as a wild card and go belly up again, nope, they do not need to add an impact pitcher...

 

This is what I was thinking. If we start looking at the SPs on the other playoff teams, we will notice most of the names. For fun, we can analyze how these pitchers were acquired. Only then can we state:

 

1) The Twins don't need good, proven SPs.

2) The Twins shouldn't acquire them via free agency or trade.

 

I'm guessing these two ideas could be shattered just by looking at what successful teams are doing.....

Edited November 3, 2017 by Doomtints

[Doomtints]

 

Might depend on what you mean by impact. The Royals won the WS when their best pitcher was Edison Volquez and Chris Young.

 

It's worth it to look at how crappy the teams the Royals beat in the playoffs were.

 

- The Astros had no hitting and barely above average pitching.

- The Blue Jays hit well but had poor pitching

- The Mets may have been the worst-hitting team to ever play in the WS

 

Every team the Royals faced in the playoffs had pitching at or worse than theirs.

2015 was a year where whoever got hot would win the WS, this happened to be an above-average but unexciting Royals.

 

This was a fluke year ... an outlier ... an exception ... thus it's not helpful to bring it up. You can't win a world series by betting on more exceptions happening.

Edited November 3, 2017 by Doomtints

[Kwak]

 

It's worth it to look at how crappy the teams the Royals beat in the playoffs were.

 

- The Astros had no hitting and barely above average pitching.

- The Blue Jays hit well but had poor pitching

- The Mets may have been the worst-hitting team to ever play in the WS

 

Every team the Royals faced in the playoffs had pitching at or worse than theirs.

2015 was a year where whoever got hot would win the WS, this happened to be an above-average but unexciting Royals.

 

This was a fluke year ... an outlier ... an exception ... thus it's not helpful to bring it up. You can't win a world series by betting on more exceptions happening.

However, it appears to me that "fluke" or "outlier year" is the Twins strategy.

[prouster]

It's worth it to look at how crappy the teams the Royals beat in the playoffs were.

 

- The Astros had no hitting and barely above average pitching.

- The Blue Jays hit well but had poor pitching

- The Mets may have been the worst-hitting team to ever play in the WS

 

Every team the Royals faced in the playoffs had pitching at or worse than theirs.

 

2015 was a year where whoever got hot would win the WS, this happened to be an above-average but unexciting Royals.

 

This was a fluke year ... an outlier ... an exception ... thus it's not helpful to bring it up. You can't win a world series by betting on more exceptions happening.

The Royals won the AL pennant the year before, so . . . two consecutive fluke years? I hope the decision makers aren't discounting proven methods of roster construction because they're less aesthetically pleasing.

[shimrod]

"Did Smith get fired for spending money or for spending money poorly?"

 

Exactly the point. Ownership has a track record. Shoddy play and low payroll? Management stays. Elevated payroll and shoddy play? New management. The GM can screw up on the low side for years and still have a job. Screw up spending money and you're out the door. 

 

 

 

[Monkeypaws]

Agree totally with #2. Berrios is our impact starter, and there is a long line of pretty good looking guys to back him up.

[DocBauer]

Truth #1

Pitching...quality pitching...remains the single biggest advantage for a team to win, win often, and legitimately contend.

 

Truth #2

Every team wants pitching, and everyone wants an ACE to lead their club with another impact arm behind him, and then it becomes a bit more cloudy 3-5.

 

Truth #3

A real and true ACE is hard to come by. (We've even had debates as to who and what is a true ACE). Hopefully you draft and develop one. Acquiring one via FA is very expensive, you have to at least somewhat overpay and assume risk, and they are also expensive prospect wise to acquire via trade.

 

I don't think anyone can really disagree with those "truths". But no matter what, its still a TEAM game. An outstanding, balanced and deep staff still won't win with poor defense and lousy offense. A great offense and tight defense still won't win with a poor/lousy staff.

 

The question becomes, how do you build the best overall TEAM to contend? Yes, I'd love the Twins to somehow acquire a real ACE, have Berrios take a step forward and Santana would be a stud #3. But is that practical? And if not, what can you do make the best roster? I'm not going to list all the names, we know them, but one more really good, really solid, quality SP deepens the rotation, allows for the upcoming kids to move up when ready, and increases your chances to contend and win, even without an ACE if the other pieces are in place and the bullpen is quality.

 

You sign a couple quality bullpen arms like Shaw and McGee...my top 2 targets...to go along with what you have, and what's coming up, you could have a really nice pen. You add that one quality arm, and suddenly you have a potentially deep and solid rotation, overall, lead by 3 guys who could/would pitch most days like a #2, with that new pen, quality defense and hitting, and you have a deep and well balanced team. You could afford extensions, and you still have your milb system intact for depth, promotion, and a big trade if available.

[Deduno Abides]

One of the secrets of the Astros is that they kept payroll low until advantageous and timely opportunities came up to acquire expensive players like McCann and Verlander. They didn’t bother paying free agency rates for pitchers hoping to achieve 3 WAR. If they had, they might not have had the payroll room to take Verlander for the next few years.

 

Their second secret is that they didn’t look at players as finished goods or judge them on their reputations, which is what the Twins have done. This attitude allowed them to look at Charlie Morton and see what he could become, instead of looking only at what he was already.

 

Third is that they looked in volume, as opposed to saying they needed to get one pitcher who is just better than what they had already, which is a small increase in WAR and places all of your chips on one bet.

[Boom Boom]

I'm going to disagree w/you on #2. I'm not sold on Mejia yet and I've seen too much of Kyle Gibson to be a believer in him now.

 

I think the Twins need to add a medium-to-high-end SP to really be a contender.

[USAFChief]

My point was that someone like May or Romero could be the addition to the top. And keeping the door open for them maintains roster/payroll flexibility. As I mentioned, you can always add during the season when you have a better idea of how things are shaping up.

 

Wouldn’t adding to the top over the winter and hoping May or Romero prove worthy of being added during the season be a plan much more likely to succeed?

[wabene]

Some of this falls into the grass is always greener realm. How did Darvish (the pipe dream) do in the Series? Roto/fantasy has made everyone a GM with an itchy trigger finger. Trades and FA are a crap shoot. One costs money and the other part of your potential future.Of course I would rather gamble with someone else's money. So we've gone that route recently when our rotation was a shambles. At the time my bar of acceptance was lower than now. Nolasco? Not excited especially because the mediocre stats were from the NL but thought he could be better than some we had with his track record. Result? Disappointed mild expectations. Hughes? I was excited. He had a pedigree and was a fly ball pitcher in Yankee Stadium. Might have something. Result? A little below what I expected with one year above and one below with the brevity leading to ultimate disappointment. Santiago? Happy to see Nolasco go and a little worried about Meyer but ultimately saw him as the opposite of a bulldog. What would that be a Shiatsu? Trembling Chihuahua? I thought Santiago was a slight upgrade from Nolasco. Busenitz??? Result? I see Busenitz as a better long term contributor than Meyer. Santana? Now this had me excited. This is the type of acquisition I can get behind. He has produced about what I had hoped. He is a solid piece and it is fortunate that we didn't trade him. 

I am hopeful the new regime will spend to the middle of the pack and make one SP addition on par with Santana. I think a little more depth is necessary. If these things don't happen then the Pohlads just reinforce the banker stereotype and stress my fandom. If they can't at least spend to a break even point and have to make even more cash then they just take all the fun out of owning a ballclub. Isn't some of this supposed to be fun?

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

Wouldn’t adding to the top over the winter and hoping May or Romero prove worthy of being added during the season be a plan much more likely to succeed?

I will be surprised if May comes back to pitch very many innings next year after having pitched none innings this year. (outside of pre-season)

I like Romero, but his 1.352 WHIP was a bit of a concern and his 8.6 K/9 in AA was good, not great. I believe he is a full year away.

I would be less surprised if Thorpe helped the Twins this year. Unfortunately he will probably be limited to about 120 innings this year.

Not as optimistic as some about these younger starters. I believe they are further away then is being bandied about. 

And I would be fine with being wrong about that.

[gunnarthor]

 

It's worth it to look at how crappy the teams the Royals beat in the playoffs were.

 

- The Astros had no hitting and barely above average pitching.

- The Blue Jays hit well but had poor pitching

- The Mets may have been the worst-hitting team to ever play in the WS

 

Every team the Royals faced in the playoffs had pitching at or worse than theirs.

2015 was a year where whoever got hot would win the WS, this happened to be an above-average but unexciting Royals.

 

This was a fluke year ... an outlier ... an exception ... thus it's not helpful to bring it up. You can't win a world series by betting on more exceptions happening.

And I also pointed out that the Giants won it with a pitching staff WAR of 9 and the Cards did it with an 8. Or the Astros relatively low 13 this year. It's not just the Royals. There are a lot of exceptions to whatever arbitrary line you are making. And the Dodgers and Nationals (and Tigers) have failed in the postseason with some of the greatest pitching staffs ever.  You can win the World Series if your #1 starter is just a 4 WAR type pitcher. It's happened a lot over the last few years.

 

There are a lot of ways for the Twins to move from an 85 win team to 90+. Improving the bullpen and rotation seem like the easiest. That doesn't mean that the Twins need to waste 160m on Darvish (and we have 20 years of history that says we won't do that). Adding Cobb to our nucleus could be enough. Berrios looks like a stud in the making. If those are your first two arms and Santana is #3, that's not a bad rotation on paper. We have two top 100 prospects in AAA this year (Romero and Gonsalves) and a few other arms not far behind that are worth being excited about (Thorpe being a really intriguing sleeper) as well.