Article: Seth's 2018 Minnesota Twins Offseason Blueprint

[lukeduke1980]

 

And someone else takes him on.  I am not high on Palka, but saw him as one of many who could slug and strike out and therefore they are all eligible to move on.  I like players like Altuve that make contact and ocassionally hit HRs.  Will that be Wade, Rooker????

Actually the ChiSox claimed Palka yesterday.

[Oldgoat_MN]

Lots of interesting moves Seth!

IMHO the biggest weakness is the DH solution. Mark Reynolds had an OPS of .978 in Coors Field. His OPS away from home was .703, which was lower than the OPS posted by Kennys Vargas at home or away (.737, .780 respectively).

I would keep Vargas rather than replacing him with someone like Reynolds.

[Kato87]

MLB Trade Rumors has  Shaw to the BoSox nearly the same, McGee going to the Cubs for $6 mil less and Tillman going to the Tigers 2x the free agent salary
25.  Bryan Shaw – Red Sox.  Three years, $21MM.
30.  Jake McGee – Cubs.  Three years, $18MM.
47.  Chris Tillman – Tigers.  One year, $10MM.
Here are the players linked to the Twins
11.  Alex Cobb – Twins.  Four years, $48MM.
24.  Juan Nicasio – Twins.  Three years, $21MM.

I think Twins need to get a free agent starting pitcher.  They can't rely on the last 3 spots in the rotation with Gibson, Mejia, Hughes.
Hopefully 2 or 3 guys in minors is able to have success in the major in 2018.
Gonsalves, Romero.  Chargois, Reed, Burdi or Jay. Also hope that May, Duffey and Pressly can re-discover their early successes.

Idealistically i would have 12 pitchers on the roster and 2 lefties in the rotation for most of the season and 3 lefties in the bullpen.  If Molitor and the Alton manage bullpen better than last season they should not need 13 pitchers.

[Steve Penz]

Why is Kepler deserving of a larger contract than Rosario and should we be extending Kepler at this point? It seems like a huge gamble without knowing he can hit LHP.

[beckmt]

I saw the mlbtraderumors and think Cobb is light, maybe way light.  I also might like Chatwood vs Cobb.  Like the idea of Nicasio, but do not know if the Twins will be able to sign him as he might be more light $24 - $27 million for 3 years.  

Would like the Twins to sign Darvish, but do not think that is likely.  

I like OB players so would keep Grossman and see if he just wore down from playing as much as he did. 

My biggest worry is that Sano goes year to year and looks like he is going to leave, what would his value be, can we get multiple front line pitching prospects for him, with a couple of lower level, high risk, high upside types.  

Would guess Rooker will be here in 2019 so would accept short term solutions like Grossman here this year.

[Mr. Brooks]

Why is Kepler deserving of a larger contract than Rosario and should we be extending Kepler at this point? It seems like a huge gamble without knowing he can hit LHP.

Apples to apples, if they both go 7 years, Rosario actually gets 6M more, under Seth's plan.

 

I know Rosario just had a big year, and Kepler a down year, but I think big picture, Kepler still has the higher ceiling.

He's a better defender and baserunner, and Rosario's lack of walks will always put a hard cap on his offensive ceiling.

 

Yes, Kepler has to not be awful vs. lefties to hit that ceiling, but given he has hit them in the minors, there is hope he'll figure it out.

[ScottyB]

 

 

• • Max Kepler - 7 years, $48 million extension with option for 7 years, $61 million
    • 2018 value at $1.0M

 

I think if I'm Kepler I opt for the 7 year, $61 million contract rather than the 7 year, $48 million contract.

 

 

[Major League Ready]

I am a big proponent of extending our core.  However, any plan that start with the assumption all of these players are willing to extend has a very low probability of success.  Add to that how inconsistent they have all been and it’s a bad idea in concept.  I also think you are light on the dollars and it’s not financially feasible to extend them all at what they are likely to cost.  These decisions can be mad over the next couple years and that additional time should facilitate better decisions, especially given none of them has sustained a high level of play.  

 

Dozier – Extending Dozier is not where I would invest given the depth we have in high ceiling middle infield prospects.

 

Buxton – We still have no idea if he can hit for more than a 6 week period but I would extend him at this price if he is willing.

Sano – Just not a guy I would bet on at this point.  Take another year or even two to determine if Sano is a good long-term investment.  

 

Rosario – I would sign him for that kind of money in a heartbeat but it will take considerably more.  He is a good bet to maintain his offense now that he has improved his plate discipline from horrid to below average.  He will be great if he can develop average plate discipline. 

 

Kepler – I had a man crush on Kepler but I want to see him bounce back before I invest long-term.   Rooker might be a better option than Kepler by 2019.   It makes a lot of sense to approach this next year or later unless the terms were very favorable.

 

Berrios – I doubt he signs for this kind of money.  Regardless of the exact dollars, I would want option years on any pitcher.  History is very clear how risky pitchers are on long-term deals.

 

Polanco is also worthy of consideration.  I would be more apt to extend him than Kepler right now which is part of the reason this should be approached over the course of the next couple years.  

 

Our payroll is roughly $85M.  We can go get Lynn, Cobb or maybe even Darvish and a couple relievers.   This would make for a very good team, especially if this core continues to improve in a manner consistent with core players worthy of an extension.  Next year we have $44M coming off the books if we don’t pick-up Santana’s option.  At that point we are going to be in a much better position to determine where to invest.  We will be doing so in a year with an exceptional free agent class.  We will have had another year to determine the best extensions candidates and there will more legitimate pitching prospects (SP&BP) reaching ML readiness than we have had in a long time.

[Mike Sixel]

Isn't Frazier a terrible defender?

[jimmer]

 

Isn't Frazier a terrible defender?

No.

 

Todd Frazier had 10 DRS (4th in MLB for 3B) and was 3rd in UZR.

 

 

[drjim]

Not a sexy name but I wonder if Chase Headley could make some sense. Yanks would probably eat some money to dump him for basically nothing.

 

Good Sano insurance, veteran bat.