Article: Trevor May Presents A Planning Paradox For Twins

[Richie the Rally Goat]

 

Keep in mind, MLB is short of good pitchers. Look at the teams right behind us in the Wild Card race. A lot of them would have liked to have Kyle Gibson.

 

If you made a list of all starters last year in the majors (218 pitched at least 30 innings), Gibson is probably in the 90-100 range (I looked at fWAR and it has him at 108 by WAR and 87 by xFIP (above Berrios). Obviously, having 5 pitchers better than that would be ideal but it's not realistic.

Having 5 starting pitchers better than league average xFIP isn't realistic? The average team uses in excess of 10 starters in a season. Sure the bulk of your starts come from the opening day 5, but if you expect to be a "good team" I would think 4/5 of the starting 5 would be better than league average.

 

According to Fangraphs, Gibson's FIP was 4.85 vs league average 4.4. Better than Gibby still has some room to get up to league average.  

[caninatl04]

Since no one has yet said it-- thanks for the article.  As a few posters have mentioned, some of us have forgotten about May.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I could see an option burned for Trevor due to known control issues with pitchers returning from TJS, and that's fine in my opinion. He will get his shot at some point, and he'd likely be the first guy called up in that scenario.

 

I don't see how May prevents them from signing a pitcher. I just don't see it. If May is ready, it's Gibson or Mejia that's on the bubble in that case. Mejia has options, and I'd keep May over Gibson 10 times out of 10.

[gunnarthor]

 

Having 5 starting pitchers better than league average xFIP isn't realistic? The average team uses in excess of 10 starters in a season. Sure the bulk of your starts come from the opening day 5, but if you expect to be a "good team" I would think 4/5 of the starting 5 would be better than league average.

 

According to Fangraphs, Gibson's FIP was 4.85 vs league average 4.4. Better than Gibby still has some room to get up to league average.  

Yeah, I don't think it's very realistic. Most teams don't pull that kind of stuff off. Cleveland did but the Astros gave 60 starts to fip's above 4.40, the Red Sox 48, Yankees 70, etc. All those teams were top 7 in fWAR for starting pitching. But that's just one random stat. Why not xFIP, where Gibby looks better? Or fWAR? (or bWAR which doesn't like him at all).

 

The point is, most teams don't have five pitchers better than Gibson. The Nationals, a great pitching team, gave 28 starts to Jason Ross, AJ Cole, Matt Grace, Jacob Turner, Jeremy Gutherie, Edwin Jackson and Krick Fedde.  Those seven pitchers managed 147ip and 0.1 WAR. By most metrics, Gibby was our 3rd best starter last year. By some, xfip, he was our best, by others, bWAR or FIP, probably 4th. If the Twins can improve that, great. But it's not realistic to expect it. Gibson is what he is, a back of the rotation starter who will have hot and cold streaks but probably finish around 160 innings and stay relatively healthy. 

[ashbury]

I could see an option burned for Trevor

Burned? He's 28. I'm just grateful if he still has one and league rules allow it to be exercised. What would the team save the option for, his old age?

[beckmt]

 

Yeah, I don't think it's very realistic. Most teams don't pull that kind of stuff off. Cleveland did but the Astros gave 60 starts to fip's above 4.40, the Red Sox 48, Yankees 70, etc. All those teams were top 7 in fWAR for starting pitching. But that's just one random stat. Why not xFIP, where Gibby looks better? Or fWAR? (or bWAR which doesn't like him at all).

 

The point is, most teams don't have five pitchers better than Gibson. The Nationals, a great pitching team, gave 28 starts to Jason Ross, AJ Cole, Matt Grace, Jacob Turner, Jeremy Gutherie, Edwin Jackson and Krick Fedde.  Those seven pitchers managed 147ip and 0.1 WAR. By most metrics, Gibby was our 3rd best starter last year. By some, xfip, he was our best, by others, bWAR or FIP, probably 4th. If the Twins can improve that, great. But it's not realistic to expect it. Gibson is what he is, a back of the rotation starter who will have hot and cold streaks but probably finish around 160 innings and stay relatively healthy. 

Lot's of you missed my point.  His statistics were inflated by pitching in August and September against many clubs not contending for the wild card much less a postseason berth.  

Gibson will not help us beating good clubs.  You may have to keep him, but  I would package him and some prospects for a better starter.

[gunnarthor]

 

Lot's of you missed my point.  His statistics were inflated by pitching in August and September against many clubs not contending for the wild card much less a postseason berth.  

Gibson will not help us beating good clubs.  You may have to keep him, but  I would package him and some prospects for a better starter.

I'm fine with your second point - if we can move him, great. 

As to your first point, I'm less convinced. I'm pretty sure if we started looking at the pitchers on the list in the 90-115 range we'd see a lot of up and down seasons and variances between level of opposition. And the Twins will still face bad teams next year so wins against Detroit still matter.

[Thrylos]

 

Lot's of you missed my point.  His statistics were inflated by pitching in August and September against many clubs not contending for the wild card much less a postseason berth. 

 

So, if that stands true for Gibson, why should not apply to Buxton?

[laloesch]

May will be a factor in the rotation next season maybe not right away but at some point. 100% healthy he will push Gibson and Mejia IMO and that's a good thing. I also think Littell, Enns and Gonsalves will be a factor too. What the Twins need is a top of the rotation to pair with Berrios and Santana. The rest can fill out the #4 and #5 spots.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Burned? He's 28. I'm just grateful if he still has one and league rules allow it to be exercised. What would the team save the option for, his old age?

 

If he's not ready come spring... that's the nice thing of having it. Hopefully, it isn't the case, but that's a real possibility coming back from TJS.

[snepp]

Getting May back as a viable starter mid-season is just like making a trade.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

/snark

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Lot's of you missed my point. His statistics were inflated by pitching in August and September against many clubs not contending for the wild card much less a postseason berth.

Gibson will not help us beating good clubs. You may have to keep him, but I would package him and some prospects for a better starter.

this is the very essence of the importance of sample size. It’s the foundation of statistical analysis.

 

You will always find variance like this inside of a season among all players.

 

This just Gibson. His season on the whole was in line with his career. You take the good with the bad.

[Jacksson]

If he doesn't show enough to hang on to him in ST, trade him to SF for Denard Span!!

[kab21]

 

Lot's of you missed my point.  His statistics were inflated by pitching in August and September against many clubs not contending for the wild card much less a postseason berth.  

Gibson will not help us beating good clubs.  You may have to keep him, but  I would package him and some prospects for a better starter.

Very few teams have #5 starters that help them beat good teams. Gibson is a placeholder at the back of the rotation that can be replaced by any of the talented AAA pitchers (or May) next season if they take the spot from him. And he will be back on a cheap 1 year arb contract. 

 

I don't have high expectations of Gibson either though.

 

Little dirty secret about one of the worst rotation in the majors:

Their "Ace" will almost certainly regress next season, based on his 4.46 FIP, 4.77 xFIP, & .245 BABIP.

 

This pitching rotation to be competitive in the post-season will need 2 pitchers better than Berrios, and Santana is not one.  If that means giving Santana up in a package to get one of, let it be. 

 

I doubt teams aren't aware that Santana is 35 (opening day) and has some scary stats. But packages that include aging starters that acquire better MLB pitchers are very rare. The only thing that the Santana trade would accomplish is bringing in a package containing another top 100 prospect. That isn't terribly exciting for next season.

[Rosterman]

I would ease May back in. He will have to work up towards 120 innings in 2018, as an example, if he is fairly ready to go. I would baby him and keep him on the DL if the season opens and he is not quite there, allowing him to rehad in Ft. Myers (and not use an option) for the colder weeks up north, then work him into long relief or spot starts. Or, there is the chance you might find that he could be closer material. But if he fully recovers, the Twins should have decent control of his services for his 29-31 years of age. And go from there.

 

Curious, more, about the state of Chargois. And even if Zack Jones is in the mix.

[gunnarthor]

 

So, if that stands true for Gibson, why should not apply to Buxton?

While I don't agree with his premise there are substantial differences between Gibson and Buxton. One of them is still young and improving. Gibson's last 10 starts or so were against some very bad offensive ball clubs while Buxton was playing everyday and facing some legit pitchers. Buxton's pedigree and background make him a much safer bet moving forward. Etc.

[laloesch]

 

I would ease May back in. He will have to work up towards 120 innings in 2018, as an example, if he is fairly ready to go. I would baby him and keep him on the DL if the season opens and he is not quite there, allowing him to rehad in Ft. Myers (and not use an option) for the colder weeks up north, then work him into long relief or spot starts. Or, there is the chance you might find that he could be closer material. But if he fully recovers, the Twins should have decent control of his services for his 29-31 years of age. And go from there.

 

Curious, more, about the state of Chargois. And even if Zack Jones is in the mix.

 

If he's healthy he should be able to go more than 120 maybe in the 150 range.  Matt Harvey's limit in his first year back was 185 innings and he went 200.  Not saying he should do the same, but 120 is quite low and overly cautious IMO.  He's also going to have a full year of recovery by March 2018 so he should be ready by spring training.  But if he's erratic and has control issues it might be a moot point anyways.  

[Squirrel]

While I don't agree with his premise there are substantial differences between Gibson and Buxton. One of them is still young and improving. Gibson's last 10 starts or so were against some very bad offensive ball clubs while Buxton was playing everyday and facing some legit pitchers. Buxton's pedigree and background make him a much safer bet moving forward. Etc.

Just a mod note: As it applies to Gibson, and in this case it was a response to a comparison, please don’t take the Buxton tangent further, as this is a discussion about May, and how he may or may not affect the starting rotation next year. Thanks.

[Bill Brown69]

Santana and Berrios are the only locks for next year. I do understand the age factor but I also think there is a coaching aspect to Santana that is being overlooked.

 

May should not in any way factor into the signing of a starter this offseason, nor should Mejia or Gibby. We absolutely need someone of the caliber of Santana/Berrios to make a top 3. Let the rest of the contenders play out and go from there. 

 

With a top 3 of Santana, Berrios and FA or trade then see where we are at come deadline time and pick up a guy like the Astros did this year if needed.

[biscuit]

What is the word on Chargois and his rehab? Anybody?

[awinter]

This thread is getting too pessimistic for my liking.

 

May plays for the Twins, not the Indians, or Dodgers, or Nationals. I would assume May to be better than anyone among the Indians starting 5, but c'mon, I think he can improve the Twins very poor starting staff.

[Jham]

I thought it was foolish to depend on May last season. He's never shown sustained success as a starter. His peripherals were nice but rarely transferred to on field results. Similar to Mejia, his swing and miss stuff was offset by erratic control, inability to get deep into games and in May's case, some very hard contact mixed in. He also has a bad back. I like the guy. I think he's going to be successful in either the pen or starting rotation. But in a competitive year, his production should certainly not be relied upon.

[drjim]

 

I thought it was foolish to depend on May last season. He's never shown sustained success as a starter. His peripherals were nice but rarely transferred to on field results. Similar to Mejia, his swing and miss stuff was offset by erratic control, inability to get deep into games and in May's case, some very hard contact mixed in. He also has a bad back. I like the guy. I think he's going to be successful in either the pen or starting rotation. But in a competitive year, his production should certainly not be relied upon.

 

Why didn't it make sense to have him break camp as a starter and get the first crack at it last year?

[Loosey]

I agree May could be a nice addition to the pitching staff next season.  However, I would not alter the off-season approach because he might be a pleasant surprise next year.  I would approach the off-season thinking May is one of the many arms with question marks (which he is).  If the Twins can get a quality starting pitcher or two I would do it if I were them and not think about what effect May could have. Never a bad thing to have too many pitchers.  

[Richie the Rally Goat]

This thread is getting too pessimistic for my liking.

 

May plays for the Twins, not the Indians, or Dodgers, or Nationals. I would assume May to be better than anyone among the Indians starting 5, but c'mon, I think he can improve the Twins very poor starting staff.

he has shown the ability in the past to be a good starting pitcher, 4-5 innings at a crack, but doesn’t coming back from Tommy John give you some pause? He was never going to be an “Ace” but maybe a lights out bullpen arm or 3-4 starter.

 

Could he improve last year’s staff? Absolutely

Will he do so opening day? 50-50 at best. Will he put in a 150 inning season? No chance

[Jham]

 

Why didn't it make sense to have him break camp as a starter and get the first crack at it last year?

It did make sense.  Expecting him to produce for a season as a 3ish starter did not.  

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I thought it was foolish to depend on May last season. He's never shown sustained success as a starter. His peripherals were nice but rarely transferred to on field results. Similar to Mejia, his swing and miss stuff was offset by erratic control, inability to get deep into games and in May's case, some very hard contact mixed in. He also has a bad back. I like the guy. I think he's going to be successful in either the pen or starting rotation. But in a competitive year, his production should certainly not be relied upon.

 

The problem with this type of reasoning is that it assumes his rookie struggles are the reasons to avoid him starting. I'm not sure I agree as this can be said about any pitcher. I'll ignore his rookie season in large part because he got better over time and it was his rookie year. He got bounced from the rotation his second season for reasons other than his performance. Year 3 was the pen, and year four was the DL. I'm fine with May as a starter in 2018, and I'll be fine with that until he proves he cannot do it.

[old nurse]

 

Lot's of you missed my point.  His statistics were inflated by pitching in August and September against many clubs not contending for the wild card much less a postseason berth.  

Gibson will not help us beating good clubs.  You may have to keep him, but  I would package him and some prospects for a better starter.

His 5 great games in August and September were 2 against KC while they were still in the race and one against Toronto, while they were still in the race.   Maybe KC will give a decent prospect up in trade for Gibson.

[sthpstm]

 

The problem with this type of reasoning is that it assumes his rookie struggles are the reasons to avoid him starting. I'm not sure I agree as this can be said about any pitcher. I'll ignore his rookie season in large part because he got better over time and it was his rookie year. He got bounced from the rotation his second season for reasons other than his performance. Year 3 was the pen, and year four was the DL. I'm fine with May as a starter in 2018, and I'll be fine with that until he proves he cannot do it.

Completely agree with your thoughts. Before they moved him out of the rotation in 2015, he had a 3.25 FIP. He had a .341 BABIP and a 69.5% LOB. Even assuming he couldn't have made any sort of adjustment to improve himself (pitch usage, sequencing, etc.), he still likely would have improved those numbers enough to drive his ERA into the low 4's if not lower thanks to improved defense and pitch framing.

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

Neither May nor Hughes are on the Twins' 40-man roster as of today. Not listed at all – not on the DL or anything.

 

Maybe they don't have to be listed, coming back from injuries. I just found it odd, that's all.