Article: Diving Into The Offseason: Rosario And Kepler Extensions?

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Mostly on board with this but there are options.   Back when Sano was the #2 prospect I threw out the idea of trading him for Lindor or Correia who were also top 10 at the time but below Sano.    Now I wonder what kind of package we can get for him in a trade.   On another thread people were talking about the high price tag of Chris Archer.   Would Sano do it alone or more?   Would a guy like Archer plus maybe a reliever be worth the 100+ drop in OPS between Sano and Escobar?

 

There is a reason prospect for prospect trades rarely happen. Not sure either team would have done that to be honest.

[Dantes929]

 

It's stupid because if you have a bunch of money today, it will be a much larger pile of money tomorrow if you follow some pretty basic steps.

 

If you offered me $500,000 today or $50,000 per year for 20 years ($1m total), I'd take the $500k every time because I could turn it into way more than $1m very easily.

 

And that's even if you're paying me double the amount over time and doesn't even include inflation expenses or anything of the sort. If you're offering me a 1:1 dollar ratio either front-loaded or back-loaded, I'm going to take the front-loading because it's so much better for me financially.

 

And you'd think at least one agent in pro sports would be able to explain this concept to his client.

Debating at a little cross purposes here.     I agree with you especially with paragraph 1, 3 and 4.    Especially 3!    In theory.   Its math, which doesn't lie.    But then you add in human nature.    You can give a guy 30 mil up front and 5 mil a year for 6 years which is much better than 10 mil a year for 6 years but if the player is going great he is going to downplay the upfront money after a few years and say "I am worth way more than 5 mil a year" and his agent who explained the front loading concept 3 years ago and pocketed the huge commission up front is going to say "I agree.  Lets go renegotiate for a 2 year extension that will pay you the 10 mil a year for the remainder of your contract and fair market value for the extra two years"

[Seth Stohs]

One thing I should have mentioned is that these guys may be the types where signing somewhat shorter deals may make sense. 

 

Maybe Rosario gets a three year, $9 million deal... or maybe you sign Kepler to a 3 year, $8 million or a 4 year, $14 million.

 

In that case, they would each have a year or arbitration-eligibility after the contract remaining. Eliminates a lot of the risk for the Twins. Even if they get hurt and miss  a year, the Twins only would overpay a couple of million. For the players, they may risk out on losing a couple million during those years, but they can become free agents earlier. 

[tvagle]

 

As much as I love Kepler, I don't sign him. Even in the era of the live ball, he shows limited power. I'd try on Rosario, but he is a high beta player for sure, and people vastly over estimate his running and defense, imo. I like the idea of the Escobar deal, they need 3B/Sano insurance.

in the post above where I ramble on about the Forbes info and just what 52% of revenue could mean...I've chosen to let Kepler get paid through arbitration each year

 

Super-2 makes it a little more expensive, but hey you can always extend after the first year or two

 

I could see Polanco being an arbitration only candidate as well

[tvagle]

 

One thing I should have mentioned is that these guys may be the types where signing somewhat shorter deals may make sense. 

 

Maybe Rosario gets a three year, $9 million deal... or maybe you sign Kepler to a 3 year, $8 million or a 4 year, $14 million.

 

In that case, they would each have a year or arbitration-eligibility after the contract remaining. Eliminates a lot of the risk for the Twins. Even if they get hurt and miss  a year, the Twins only would overpay a couple of million. For the players, they may risk out on losing a couple million during those years, but they can become free agents earlier. 

 

We don't know what the players situation is...does his family need money, a new house for Granny...I would GUESS that of the Young Core (Buxton, Sano, Berrios, Polanco, Rosario, Kepler) 2 of them would take a team friendly deal that nets them some long-term financial stability. Be that shorter years or smaller in AAV

 

If I were betting Seth's collection of Christian Brothers Vintage Hockey Sticks I'd say Polanco, Kepler and Rosario will take team friendly deals

[Seth Stohs]

 

We don't know what the players situation is...does his family need money, a new house for Granny...I would GUESS that of the Young Core (Buxton, Sano, Berrios, Polanco, Rosario, Kepler) 2 of them would take a team friendly deal that nets them some long-term financial stability. Be that shorter years or smaller in AAV

 

If I were betting Seth's collection of Christian Brothers Vintage Hockey Sticks I'd say Polanco, Kepler and Rosario will take team friendly deals

 

It's hard to know...

 

Byron Buxton got something like $6.5 million when he signed, but $50-70 million guaranteed is something entirely different. 

 

Kepler and Polanco signed for $750K. Rosario probably signed for a couple hundred thousand. Sano signed for $3.15 million. I don't know what 'enough financial security' means. 

 

And it's hard to know what will encourage people to sign, the risk-reward quotient. 

[tvagle]

I wonder if recent global events may sway players feelings about signing an extension

This would be an opportune time for the Twins to show how much they care about their players well being by extending an offer to those who could use it the most right now in light of the natural disasters several players families are dealing with

 

I am not advocating this as a sound strategy/practice in general, but they are people and there is a  humanitarian side to taking care of employees...it could play a part

 

[drjim]

It's hard to know...

 

Byron Buxton got something like $6.5 million when he signed, but $50-70 million guaranteed is something entirely different.

 

Kepler and Polanco signed for $750K. Rosario probably signed for a couple hundred thousand. Sano signed for $3.15 million. I don't know what 'enough financial security' means.

 

And it's hard to know what will encourage people to sign, the risk-reward quotient.

I think you were light on Buxton, but he seems like he could be signable this offseason if the price is right. Polanco/Kepler/Rosario/Berrios would probably sign if the Twins are interested (or at least they should). Don't really see a path with Sano.

[beckmt]

Sano is the wildcard factor, but I would try and get it done.  I would sign Rosario if the dollars made sense.  He might not be a superstar, but he could be a very good player.  Kepler I would wait a year and see how he turns out.  You do not need all three right away (Buxton, Rosario, Kepler).  You still have Rooker, Badaoo, Wade and maybe more in the minors.

I like the outside the box signing of Escobar for 3 - 4 years at around $7 million a year.  It gives you some options.

Polanco not mentioned here could be another target, but price would have to be very good.  Polanco and Escobar are the reasons I could see letting Dozier walk after next year.  Or you could make him a QO if you do not think the other middle infielders are ready yet.

Twins revenue should be up next year (could be way up if the Twins content).  Let us start planning on it.

[ashbury]

Wait at least a year on Kepler to see if he can hit lefties. If he can't improve on this you'd be over paying on him to be somewhat of a platoon player.

Earl Weaver might have gotten too much credit for those 1970s Orioles, but he seemed good at finding what was right with players instead of what was wrong. One of his best achievements was crafting a decent "outfielder" out of John Lowenstein and Gary Roenicke. You can't platoon very much in this day and age, but if the downside of a contract is still having the dominant (lefty-hitting) half of a platoon with very good defense, that's a pretty limited downside, because finding a good RH bat for the OF isn't that expensive.

 

Buxton hasn't proven who he really is offensively.

If you wait until that, you will be paying much, much more.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Earl Weaver might have gotten too much credit for those 1970s Orioles, but he seemed good at finding what was right with players instead of what was wrong. One of his best achievements was crafting a decent "outfielder" out of John Lowenstein and Gary Roenicke. You can't platoon very much in this day and age, but if the downside of a contract is still having the dominant (lefty-hitting) half of a platoon with very good defense, that's a pretty limited downside, because finding a good RH bat for the OF isn't that expensive.

 

If you wait until that, you will be paying much, much more.

Yes and yes. A strong side platoon is barely a platoon at all. It's half pinch-hitting, half platoon with a guy who can kinda hit lefties and kinda man the position.

 

With that said, Kepler has to post an OPS north of .500 or he's in trouble. I think he will but it'll take reps. Not a lot. I doubt he'll ever hit lefties over a .700 OPS but that's okay. Most lefties suck against lefties.

 

He just needs to do enough that he's not an automatic out against LHP.