Article: The Hunt For An Ace Starter

[snap4birds]

The #1 'similar pitcher through age 24' (on Baseball-Reference) for Lamet is Ryan Rupe.  So he shouldn't cost much.  Maybe a C- prospect.

 

But #9 on the list is Bob Gibson, so the Twins will have to trade Gordon, Lewis and Gonsalves for him.  Plus Duensing, of course.

 

I'd be kind of scared of the high BB %.  He just seems kind of raw.  Turned 25 in July.  I guess they're is room and time for improvement, but I'm not sure he really helps the Twins much in 2018.  Jake Arrieta was #6 on the list, so maybe that is a sign that a quick turnaround is a possibilty with him.  Maybe the Twins should hire Chris Bosio, I believe he was credited with turning Arrieta from a mostly failed prospect into an all-star.

 

 

[GP830]

 

If you're dangling both of them, I think you are trying to get something more of a sure thing like Archer. I don't know enough about Lamet, but I think the thought is that he could be had cheaper b/c he has more question marks. You shouldn't need two top 100 players for that.

That's good insight. Thanks for that.

[Nick Nelson]

 

What is lame is ignoring the effects of a line drive to the wrist and the pins/screws that needed to be used to put his pitching hand back together. I'm not saying Andy/Gardy didn't play a role there, but Slowey didn't exactly become that ace when he left the Twins either.

Also, we're complaining about the Twins urging him not to rely on his straight 89 MPH fastball in the majors? Huh. 

 

Some people just refuse to believe there's any explanation other than coaching ineptitude for successful minor-leaguers who don't translate their numbers to the majors, even though it happens all the time in every organization. There's really no room for common ground when contending with that kind of unnuanced viewpoint. (I say this as someone who thought Slowey got a somewhat raw deal from the Twins.)

 

 

That's a hell of a qualifier. Over the past two years, Hill has put up a 149 ERA+ in 246 innings while pitching in the NL in an extremely good pitching ball park. He's amassed 3.5 WAR.  Santana has pitched in a hitters park in the AL the last two years and put up 8.4 WAR while throwing 393 innings with a 131 ERA+. I can't see how anyone can make a claim that Hill is an ace but Santana is not. And Hill got rocked in his first start this post-season too.

 

Rate stats are nice but you're taking them a bit too far.

This is more a discussion of talent/ability than past production. Do you actually think Santana is a better pitcher than Hill? 

 

Of course I don't think the Twins should be targeting an injury-prone starter in his late-30s. But they need to identify guys who can dominate the way Hill can. That's really the point here. 

[drjim]

 

I wonder how much Alex Cobb will cost? He's decent and 2 yrs away from surgery and pitched well this year. Trade rumor has him getting something like Santana got.

 

If he gets a QO his market could be real small. Anyone know what pick the Twins would give up for singing QO'd free agent?

 

This is a good primer on the QO: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/07/2017-qualifying-offer-expected-to-be-worth-roughly-18mm.html

 

I could get on board with Cobb, 4/56 strikes me as palatable for the Twins right now, could have some upside. 1 decent sized 4 year deal for a free agent pitcher really fits their need and payroll structure well.

[drjim]

 

This is a good primer on the QO: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/07/2017-qualifying-offer-expected-to-be-worth-roughly-18mm.html

 

I could get on board with Cobb, 4/56 strikes me as palatable for the Twins right now, could have some upside. 1 decent sized 4 year deal for a free agent pitcher really fits their need and payroll structure well.

 

TL;DR - Twins would give up their 3rd best pick if they sign a QO free agent.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

TL;DR - Twins would give up their 3rd best pick if they sign a QO free agent.

 

Given where they are picking, that wouldn't bother me too much. They won't have the pool money this year to play games, so giving up the 2nd or 3rd round pick wouldn't bother me personally. That's well worth it for the right player.

[gunnarthor]

 

 

 

This is more a discussion of talent/ability than past production. Do you actually think Santana is a better pitcher than Hill? 

 

Of course I don't think the Twins should be targeting an injury-prone starter in his late-30s. But they need to identify guys who can dominate the way Hill can. That's really the point here. 

Yeah, I don't even think it's close.

 

Take Hill out of Dodger stadium and his 89mph avg fastball, his flyball tendencies, his HR tendenices and it's not even a debate. You have to really love fip to think Hill is better.

 

 

[drjim]

 

Given where they are picking, that wouldn't bother me too much. They won't have the pool money this year to play games, so giving up the 2nd or 3rd round pick wouldn't bother me personally. That's well worth it for the right player.

 

I would agree. Seems they would lose a Competitive B pick (between 2nd and 3rd round) or a 3rd rounder (if they don't get a Competitive B pick). I would hope they don't find that cost prohibitive to add a much needed starter.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I would agree. Seems they would lose a Competitive B pick (between 2nd and 3rd round) or a 3rd rounder (if they don't get a Competitive B pick). I would hope they don't find that cost prohibitive to add a much needed starter.

 

Wondering if they get a competitive A round pick this year. They are probably still in bottom 10 in market. Revenue may have went up though.

[drjim]

 

Wondering if they get a competitive A round pick this year. They are probably still in bottom 10 in market. Revenue may have went up though.

 

My understanding is that if you get an A one year you can only get a B the next year (and vice versa). Not the easiest rules to track.

[Winston Smith]

I'd rather see them spend the money and maybe lose a draft pick than trade several prospects for pitching.

However, I'd like them to spend what it takes to sign JD Martinez first then go after some mid range starting pitching.

[drjim]

 

I'd rather see them spend the money and maybe lose a draft pick than trade several prospects for pitching.

However, I'd like them to spend what it takes to sign JD Martinez first then go after some mid range starting pitching.

 

Don't think they'd sign Martinez unless they were also planning on moving Kepler or Rosario (presumedly for pitching). Could be another way to upgrade this offseason.

[tvagle]

 

I would agree. Seems they would lose a Competitive B pick (between 2nd and 3rd round) or a 3rd rounder (if they don't get a Competitive B pick). I would hope they don't find that cost prohibitive to add a much needed starter.

 

Or maybe just sign a starter who isn't tied to a QO

 

~ Do Anything Realistic Via Incremental Salary Hikes ~

[Mike Sixel]

 

Or maybe just sign a starter who isn't tied to a QO

 

~ Do Anything Realistic Via Incremental Salary Hikes ~

 

Really, you should yourself time and put that in your sig.....

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Or maybe just sign a starter who isn't tied to a QO

 

~ Do Anything Realistic Via Incremental Salary Hikes ~

 

which means you won't get a decent one...

[Mr. Brooks]

Yeah, I don't even think it's close.

 

Take Hill out of Dodger stadium and his 89mph avg fastball, his flyball tendencies, his HR tendenices and it's not even a debate. You have to really love fip to think Hill is better.

Hill had better numbers away from Dodger Stadium last year. This year they are worse. Both years combined they are about a wash.

Ballpark doesn't seem to have much effect on Hill.

[Monkeypaws]

I think the Twins have some nice young arms on the way. Besides Berrios, you have Gonsalves, Romero, Thorpe, maybe even Stewart.

 

I've said it before, and will say it again - just throwing money around is a fool's errand. I think the owners feel the same way.

 

I hope the new regime will be able to uncover the future Klubers and Arrietas on the cheap. They are out there.

[Don Walcott]

 

I think the Twins have some nice young arms on the way. Besides Berrios, you have Gonsalves, Romero, Thorpe, maybe even Stewart.

 

I've said it before, and will say it again - just throwing money around is a fool's errand. I think the owners feel the same way.

 

I hope the new regime will be able to uncover the future Klubers and Arrietas on the cheap. They are out there.

I would love to see us sign Arrieta!!

[Rhino and Compass]

I hate the idea of sinking a lot of money into a free agent, because that means that pitcher is likely on the wrong side of 30, and there aren't many pitchers that are still effective at 33/34 and older. I can guarantee you that someone like Yu Darvish or Arrieta will want a contract that extends longer than the 2 or 3 years beyond what is left of their prime, at which point, you have a lot of money tied up in a ticking time bomb.

People can complain about Mauer's contract, but signing someone to an extension in their late 20s, especially a position player, is a reasonable move, but sinking a lot of money and years into pitching free agents effectively kneecaps your payroll in just a few years, and you know it ahead of time. Your time to win with Sano and Buxton is a lot shorter than what is left under their team control. 

Trade prospects for guys with many arb years let, or reallocate your prospect depth to patch the holes in the system that you need. Any signing over 1-2 years is going to irritate me. 

[ashbury]

Or maybe just sign a starter who isn't tied to a QO

 

~ Do Anything Realistic Via Incremental Salary Hikes ~

which means you won't get a decent one...

Unless the guy was traded mid-season, for example.

[beckmt]

Cobb will be closer to 4/64, Lynn will be about 4/80 and Chatwood may be 4/56.  Would rather go big, Prior 3 will have big market teams after them as they all want to be under the luxury tax threshold before 2018.  Pohlad's have always spent the money when they feel the team has a chance.  This team has a chance, but needs to upgrade the pitching staff significantly to succeed. 

[tvagle]

 

Unless the guy was traded mid-season, for example.

 

Hmmmm...who could that be?

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Cobb is good but has been snake bit trying to make it through a full season.

 

Not to rehash a debate, but trading two top prospects and paying three arb years for Sonny Gray seemed like a much better deal than waiting for this offseason to sign a Cobb for 4/50-60. Which is to say I think a trade will happen this offseason.

[beckmt]

 

Cobb is good but has been snake bit trying to make it through a full season.

Not to rehash a debate, but trading two top prospects and paying three arb years for Sonny Gray seemed like a much better deal than waiting for this offseason to sign a Cobb for 4/50-60. Which is to say I think a trade will happen this offseason.

How much do you want to gut the farm system.  Our midlevel farm system cannot stand that.

[Squirrel]

Moderator note: Stick to the topic. This is about pitching in the here and now, and into the future and does not include tangents of Slowey and Gardy/Andy from 2006-7.

[Major League Ready]

 

Even if we accept the figures in the handbook, why shouldn't they spend the money in 2018 that they didn't spend in 2017, and 2016?

They just get to bank that, without anyone questioning it?

They can spend whatever they chose to spend. And they could certainly add $30m in 18 and not lose money, particularly if you average over the past several years.

 

This premise of “MLB owners should operate as a non-profit so we could improve our team keeps coming up.  This premise is a failure of economics 101.  If MLB owners operated as a non-profit we would still be in the same position in terms of competing for free agents.  We might even be worse off because some of the large market teams make about the same net percentage as the Twins but have higher revenue.  Therefore, even more incremental revenue would be available to those teams. The net effect would be player salaries would be even higher.  The only way this would benefit our team is if the Pohlads were willing to operate as a non-profit while the rest of league maintained business practices focused on maintaining profitability as they do now.

 

There also would not be MLB at least not even remotely close to form we enjoy now.  It takes a whole lot of capital to build and maintain an entire industry.  Given business valuations are based on sustainable profitability the only way MLB could exist in this form would be if it were government sponsored non-profit.

Edited October 26, 2017 by Major Leauge Ready

[USAFChief]

This premise of “MLB owners should operate as a non-profit so we could improve our team keeps coming up.  This premise is a failure of economics 101.  If MLB owners operated as a non-profit we would still be in the same position in terms of competing for free agents.  We might even be worse off because some of the large market teams make about the same net percentage as the Twins but have a higher revenue.  The net effect would be player salaries would be even higher.  The only way this would benefit our team is if the Pohlads were willing to operate as a non-profit while the rest of league maintained business practices focused on maintaining profitability as they do now.

 

There also would not be MLB at least not even remotely close to form we enjoy now.  It takes a whole lot of capital to build and maintain an entire industry.  Given business valuations are based on sustainable profitability the only way MLB could exist in this form would be if it were government sponsored non-profit.

You haven't addressed a single word in the post you quoted.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

How much do you want to gut the farm system.  Our midlevel farm system cannot stand that.

I don't consider trading Nick Gordon and a top minor league arm to be gutting the system. There are good shortstops coming behind Gordon and arms are unpredictable.

 

I also wonder how pessimistic people are of Falvey's ability to build a farm system, that we can't part with a good minor leaguer or two.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Unless the guy was traded mid-season, for example.

 

So... Jamie Garcia (who wouldn't get a QO) and Yu Darvish (who everyone says we won't sign)... I'm missing a couple I'm sure, but it's not a long list.

 

That's kind of my point... it narrows the list if we refuse to sign someone who gets a QO. I'd be hesitant to trade a 1st round pick for a QO guy (though I'd probably still do that this year), but a 3rd round or comp B round? I wouldn't think twice about that.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I don't consider trading Nick Gordon and a top minor league arm to be gutting the system. There are good shortstops coming behind Gordon and arms are unpredictable.

I also wonder how pessimistic people are of Falvey's ability to build a farm system, that we can't part with a good minor leaguer or two.

 

You're likely able to start conversations there for a guy like Cole. I doubt Archer would be available at that point. If I'm trading, I think I want Archer personally. For that matter, I'd still probably consider dangling Dozier and see if someone bites.

 

Personally, I'd rather bite the bullet and spend cash, especially given the risks that all pitchers bring. That saves our minor league bullets for later if that expensive pitcher gets hurt or to shore up another hole if everything goes as planned.  But... the system is definitely good enough to bring a pitcher home.