Article: The Hunt For An Ace Starter

[Nick Nelson]

Clayton Kershaw. Dallas Keuchel. Rich Hill. Justin Verlander.

 

These veteran studs, with their ace-type profiles and plentiful big-game experience, were tabbed by Houston and Los Angeles to start Games 1 and 2 of the World Series. Each played a major role in getting his team to the big stage.

 

The Twins' deficiency in this area is the biggest reason it's hard to view them as serious contenders to make their own deep October run next year.

 

What can they do about it?Minnesota has one starting pitcher who can credibly be placed in the same category as the four mentioned above, and in many ways it feels like a stretch to do so.

 

Sure, Ervin Santana had some core numbers in 2017 that were on par with the league's top tier – namely, a 3.28 ERA and 1.13 WHIP to go along with 16 wins – but for various reasons, he just doesn't quite measure up.

 

There's the track record. To his credit, Santana enjoyed a career year at age 34, but in 2,170 previous MLB innings he had a 4.09 ERA and 1.28 WHIP.

 

There are the peripheral numbers. Santana was among the league's most homer-prone starters this season, with walk and strikeout rates that were closer to average than elite. The success was heavily aided by a career-low .247 BABIP. His 4.77 xFIP suggests the performance was not nearly as good as the results, and that we shouldn't expect the same going forward.

 

And then there is the wear and tear. Santana's durability is to be admired – he has made 30-plus starts in each of the past seven seasons (excepting his suspension-shortened 2015). But all those innings take a toll. Erv threw 100-plus pitches in 17 starts this year, and threw 37% sliders overall. He'll turn 35 in December. There hasn't yet been a drop-off in pitch velocity or quality, but few arms can escape the ravages of time and attrition forever.

 

For all these reasons, Santana looks like a poor bet to be the No. 1 starter that the Twins need in 2017 if they're aiming for a championship.

 

So where can they find this most coveted of assets? If he's coming from within the organization, it'll still probably take at least a couple more years. So let's explore a few avenues for realistically adding an ace-caliber starter from the outside.

 

FREE AGENCY

There are three pitchers set to be on the open market who could slot above Santana in the Twins rotation: Jake Arrieta, Lance Lynn and Yu Darvish. All three have the attributes to be a rotation-fronter for a true contender, and each has more or less filled that role within the past few years.

 

Signing Arrieta, Lynn or Darvish will also require more than double the $54 million that Terry Ryan committed to Santana in 2014 when making him the highest-paid free agent in franchise history. So in a way, it's a little hard to envision.

 

Or is it? There's a lot of payroll coming off the books over the next few years.

 

In the 2018 Offseason Handbook (coming next week, make sure to preorder and get yours early!) we'll give you the low-down on these three free agents and 18 more, as well as a breakdown of payroll flexibility and how they all might fit financially.

 

 

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TRADES

Last winter, in the ultimately fruitless Brian Dozier trade talks, the Twins seemingly targeted the right kinds of arms in a loaded Dodgers system. While they probably won't revisit discussions with LA, this increasingly impressive scouting department undoubtedly has some other names from other organizations on the "Want" list.

 

Are they willing to pony up? High-end pitchers, or prospects with that kind of potential, don't come cheap. Minnesota would surely be looking for a younger guy with multiple years of control, and that only ups the ante.

 

The name that pops here is Chris Archer. One of the best pitchers in the game, he keeps getting mentioned as a candidate to be moved, though it's not clear why; he's 29 and signed very reasonably through 2021 with team options. I can't even imagine the package it would take to get him.

 

Since established aces are exceedingly tough to pry away, the Twins would more likely need to identify someone who is on the verge of reaching that level. A tall task indeed.

 

I'll just throw a name out there: Dinelson Lamet, of the Padres. The 25-year-old right-hander looked solid in his MLB debut this summer, averaging well over a strikeout per inning and featuring a 95 MPH heater. San Diego, perpetually one of the worst offensive teams in the majors, would LOVE to add some promising young bats.

 

Are there other names out there that catch people's attention in the same way? Share in the comments.

 

INTERNATIONAL

We may see an unprecedented scenario play out over the next few months. By all accounts, Japanese superstar Shohei Otani fully intends to sign with an MLB team and head to the States. He's been called "Japan's Babe Ruth." Otani touches triple-digits and piles up whiffs with a nasty repertoire. Oh, and he's a good enough hitter that some legitimately believe he could DH on top of pitching.

 

Two-way player or not, there's a decent chance the 23-year-old quickly becomes one of the top starters in the majors. And cost will not really be a factor in acquiring him.

 

Per the new CBA, foreign players under the age of 25 are considered international amateurs and are thus subject to the bonus pool system. Otani could only sign a minor-league deal with a bonus of a few million tops.

 

Many teams have already spent a majority of their allotted amounts. It bears noting that Minnesota is one of eight clubs that could offer a bonus of more than $1 million, though the Rangers and Yankees are also on that list, and probably more attractive destinations.

 

I just don't see how the Twins make this happen. In fact, I really can't see Otani coming over this winter and forfeiting the $100M+ he'd be eligible to earn by waiting two more years. But, he says he's doing it, so we'll have to wait and see what happens.

 

It's going to be an interesting offseason on all fronts. And with the World Series now officially underway, it's suddenly almost upon us.

 

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[FargoFanMan]

Forget Archer. Gerrit Cole. Why is everyone so afraid of this guy? Plus I’d rather arm the pirates than an in league team.

[beckmt]

 

Forget Archer. Gerrit Cole. Why is everyone so afraid of this guy? Plus I’d rather arm the pirates than an in league team.

Archer > Cole.  Both will require a heavy package.  Twins would have to gut there farm system to get there or give up some major league talent.  Would rather spend dollars than gut the future of a mid market team (if not the future the replacement of the players that do not stay here).

[Winston Smith]

I think I'd trade Rosario for Archer, seems like an even up trade. Hard to tell what kind of prospect package it would take.

[Mr. Brooks]

I think I'd trade Rosario for Archer, seems like an even up trade. Hard to tell what kind of prospect package it would take.

With all due respect, TB would feel insulted by that offer, IMO.

[drjim]

 

I think I'd trade Rosario for Archer, seems like an even up trade. Hard to tell what kind of prospect package it would take.

 

If you added Gordon and Gonsalves, still wouldn't be enough.

[Rosterman]

 

Archer > Cole.  Both will require a heavy package.  Twins would have to gut there farm system to get there or give up some major league talent.  Would rather spend dollars than gut the future of a mid market team (if not the future the replacement of the players that do not stay here).

In some ways, the Twins may have prospects galore. They have to make some hard-lined decisions on WHO they think will be a part of the organization from all the players in A ball and above...how many can actually make the grade, and if it is too many, start to deal them when they might have a perceived worth. Are Romero and Jorge still fixtures for the rotation. Is Gonsalves the lone guy coming up in 2018, and if the Twins sign or trade for a BIG free agent, do they need Romero AND Jorge right now? Is Stewart viable? Has Thorpe increased in value? Who are the prospects in line for 2019 and 2020. Could the Twins sacrifice Rosario or Kepler? Is Buxton on the centerfield swing door? Is Nick Gordon the real future, or is it the next bunch of Lewis/Marte/Javier that will push for the infield. If not Gordon...is he at his highest worth now and can you stomach continued Dozier/Escobar/Polanco until 2020?

 

The Twins have a lot of youth that could play in the majors, just not maybe with the Twins. And if some of them can bring important NOW pieces to the mix (remember, not all rookies shine in their first couple of years of major league play).

 

 

[nicksaviking]

Maybe I read the tea leaves wrong, but I assumed when the Twins hired Falvey the idea was to do what Cleveland did; identify and procure a young stable of arms before they hit their peak and every other team wanted them.

[Major League Ready]

 

Maybe I read the tea leaves wrong, but I assumed when the Twins hired Falvey the idea was to do what Cleveland did; identify and procure a young stable of arms before they hit their peak and every other team wanted them.

 

Exactly, Acquiring an established SP with 3-4 years of control carries such a lofty price that you likely hurt the franchise long-term.  KC just demonstrated how to have 20 years of futility and then a very short window of contention. 

 

What would be the short-term effect?.  Archer would not put us on the level of the Indians so we are still likely playing for a wildcard.  That does not have the same benefit it did just a few years ago.  It's the equivalent of a game 163.  Even if you get there the chances are 50/50 you don't get to a playoff series.

 

If we have to trade one of our young core to get an Archer the gain on the Indians is reduced or eliminated.  If not, it would take a package that likely included Lewis and a couple of our other top SP prospects.  Perhaps Lewis and two of Gonsalves, Romero, and Thorpe.  I also think he is a border line ace and we would still be at a disadvantage in a playoff series with the other top contenders. I just don't see a net gain trading for an established "ace" level SP.  Let's hope Falvine can identify a break-out candidate for us.

Edited October 25, 2017 by Major Leauge Ready

[Cory Engelhardt]

I love the Lamet idea! That would be expensive but he could be amazing. How much would a Lamet/Brad Hand package cost?

Probably doesn’t hurt that Lavine and Preller know each other well.

[gunnarthor]

In what world is Rich Hill an ace and Ervin Santana is not? 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Maybe I read the tea leaves wrong, but I assumed when the Twins hired Falvey the idea was to do what Cleveland did; identify and procure a young stable of arms before they hit their peak and every other team wanted them.

 

This is true, but that takes time. In the mean time, the Twins need starting help now.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'd be thrilled acquiring any of Lamet/Cole/Archer. I'm not, however, a fan of gutting the system to get them. We have enough surplus where it may be possible, and I wouldn't be upset, but ultimately, I think spending cash may make more sense here. Those prospects can be used to either extend the window of competitiveness, or fill other gaps as needed.

 

Otani is certainly intriguing. His contract is going to be capped (meaning money won't be the issue), however, so the question at hand is what else he wants, as I suspect it's going to be his second contract, being a 2 way player, endorsements, or (most likely) destination that are capturing his attention. If we can do that, awesome.

 

Ultimately, I think you bite the bullet and pay for a starter.

[drjim]

 

In what world is Rich Hill an ace and Ervin Santana is not? 

 

Last year, for one season, if you pro-rate his starts, and don't think innings pitched means anything, Rich Hill is definitely a borderline ace.

[Monkeypaws]

Are we certain that Berrios is not gonna be the guy moving forward? He certainly has the stuff and the make-up to be a top starter. 

 

His 23 year old season was quite successful as well. 

Edited October 25, 2017 by Monkeypaws

[gunnarthor]

Are we really convinced on Lamet? He wasn't exactly a highly thought of prospect. He pitched in one of the best pitcher's parks in the country. In 21 starts, he amassed less than 0.5 bWAR and 1.3 fWAR. His home/away splits weren't quite as big as Rich Hill but they were big. Yes, he struck out a lot of guys but he pitched in the NL. He had a low babip (that gets mentioned sometimes when we talk about Twins pitchers) and is a big flyball pitcher and gave up HR's at a worse pace than even Bartolo Colon.

 

We really think this guy is worth two top 100 prospects?

[prouster]

Are we really convinced on Lamet? He wasn't exactly a highly thought of prospect. He pitched in one of the best pitcher's parks in the country. In 21 starts, he amassed less than 0.5 bWAR and 1.3 fWAR. His home/away splits weren't quite as big as Rich Hill but they were big. Yes, he struck out a lot of guys but he pitched in the NL. He had a low babip (that gets mentioned sometimes when we talk about Twins pitchers) and is a big flyball pitcher and gave up HR's at a worse pace than even Bartolo Colon.

 

We really think this guy is worth two top 100 prospects?

I think the point is that he's young, controllable, has interesting stuff, and wouldn't cost a ton in prospects for the reasons you mention. I doubt it would take even one top 100 guy. And remember, some of the best pitchers alive were virtually unknown as prospects.

[PseudoSABR]

Why would the Padres sell Lamet one year into his serfdom?

[Brock Beauchamp]

I still think chasing an "ace" as the cure to all the Twins' woes is unnecessary. Go get a good pitcher, period. Sure, we'd all like an "ace" but what the Twins need is a reliable, above average arm.

 

If you find an ace, it'll likely come from inside the organization, either via trade and development or draft/sign and development.

 

But how much better would the 2017 Twins have been if you replaced Colon's and Santiago's starts (net 0 fWAR) with a 3 fWAR pitcher? Not only do you bank something around three wins but you ease up the load on the bullpen and allow your better relievers to pitch innings.

 

Between Colon and Santiago, they had EIGHT starts where they went fewer than four innings. And most of us said Colon "wasn't that bad" (and he wasn't).

 

Making that one swap could net the Twins as many as 5-6 wins on the season, not counting any potential improvement and/or callups from pitchers already in the organization.

 

Aim for an ace pitcher in FA or trade but be ready to fall back quickly and pick up a good pitcher if that plan doesn't appear to be feasible. The last thing I want to see the Twins do is go big on Darvish, battle with five other teams for his services, lose out to the Cubs in January, and then miss a chance to pick up a lesser pitcher like Lynn (just an example, not crazy about him but he'd be an adequate choice).

[Vanimal46]

 

Are we really convinced on Lamet? He wasn't exactly a highly thought of prospect. He pitched in one of the best pitcher's parks in the country. In 21 starts, he amassed less than 0.5 bWAR and 1.3 fWAR. His home/away splits weren't quite as big as Rich Hill but they were big. Yes, he struck out a lot of guys but he pitched in the NL. He had a low babip (that gets mentioned sometimes when we talk about Twins pitchers) and is a big flyball pitcher and gave up HR's at a worse pace than even Bartolo Colon.

 

We really think this guy is worth two top 100 prospects?

 

Never heard of the guy until it was mentioned in this article. So no, I'm not convinced on Lamet.

 

As a general rule of thumb, similar to nicksaviking, I don't trust any pitcher from the Padres organization. Their ballpark favors pitchers too much, and produces stats much better than their true ability.  

[Mike Sixel]

IMO, if they don't find pitching help in the next year or two, Sano and Buxton's time will be remembered like Mauer and Morneau's time.....wasted.

[Nick Nelson]

 

In what world is Rich Hill an ace and Ervin Santana is not? 

Hill over the past 2 years: 2.78 ERA, 3.12 FIP, 1.05 WHIP, 10.8 K/9

Santana over the past 2 years: 3.32 ERA, 4.16 FIP, 1.17 WHIP, 7.2 K/9

 

That looks to me like the pretty clear delineation between a #1 and #2. Santana has the advantage in durability (Hill and those pesky blisters), but when both healthy I can't imagine there's a person in the baseball world who wouldn't choose Hill to start a playoff game. 

 

 

Are we certain that Berrios is not gonna be the guy moving forward? He certainly has the stuff and the make-up to be a top starter. 

It's possible. I wouldn't count on it. He had a solid year but he's a long way behind the the starters mentioned at the top of this article, no? Either way, as the teams that are still playing have proven, you need multiple horses atop the rotation.

 

 

Why would the Padres sell Lamet one year into his serfdom?

Because they're in desperate need of bats and you gotta pay to play. I'm not saying they'll be actively shopping him, but if the Twins came knocking with, say, Polanco and Kirilloff? 

[Mike Sixel]

I don't know why anyone trusts a SD pitcher to be good outside SD....

 

And, if he's a legit prospect to be a number 1/2 type, it will take way more than a guy with 3-4 years of control and a guy in low who just missed a year of baseball with an injury.

[Cory Engelhardt]

 

I'd be thrilled acquiring any of Lamet/Cole/Archer. I'm not, however, a fan of gutting the system to get them. We have enough surplus where it may be possible, and I wouldn't be upset, but ultimately, I think spending cash may make more sense here. Those prospects can be used to either extend the window of competitiveness, or fill other gaps as needed.

 

Otani is certainly intriguing. His contract is going to be capped (meaning money won't be the issue), however, so the question at hand is what else he wants, as I suspect it's going to be his second contract, being a 2 way player, endorsements, or (most likely) destination that are capturing his attention. If we can do that, awesome.

 

Ultimately, I think you bite the bullet and pay for a starter.

 

I at least want to have the conversation and see how much gutting needs to take place. If you are comfortable with the potential return, then go for it.

 

For Lamet specifically, what would you deem a reasonable offer? Gonsalves/Gordon/Kiriloff?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

IMO, if they don't find pitching help in the next year or two, Sano and Buxton's time will be remembered like Mauer and Morneau's time.....wasted.

It's hard to say their time was wasted. They made the postseason a bunch of times, some years when they had the best pitcher in all of baseball.

 

And they still lost. If you have two MVP-caliber position players, the best pitcher in baseball, and you still lose in the first round... *shrug*

[Mike Sixel]

 

It's hard to say their time was wasted. They made the postseason a bunch of times, some years when they had the best pitcher in all of baseball.

 

And they still lost. If you have two MVP-caliber position players, the best pitcher in baseball, and you still lose in the first round... *shrug*

 

Wasted was an exaggeration.....but it could have been much more than it was.

 

I have my doubts this team is even close to those teams yet, but go get a legit SP and 2 legit RPs, and we can talk.

[Don Walcott]

 

In what world is Rich Hill an ace and Ervin Santana is not? 

In what world is Lance Lynn an ace and Ervin Santana is not?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Wasted was an exaggeration.....but it could have been much more than it was.

 

I have my doubts this team is even close to those teams yet, but go get a legit SP and 2 legit RPs, and we can talk.

It's a single offseason. I'd be satisfied with one and one. I don't think this team really needs two relievers given how some guys stepped forward late last season and how there are intriguing arms in the upper minors.

 

I don't think the Twins have the payroll flexibility to get a good starter and two good relievers (the upcoming handbook has hard numbers on payroll and there isn't $30m to spare... maybe $15-20m, tops).

[Mike Sixel]

 

It's a single offseason. I'd be satisfied with one and one. I don't think this team really needs two relievers given how some guys stepped forward late last season and how there are intriguing arms in the upper minors.

 

I don't think the Twins have the payroll flexibility to get a good starter and two good relievers (the upcoming handbook has hard numbers on payroll and there isn't $30m to spare... maybe $15-20m, tops).

 

If they only have $15MM, this team is in serious trouble. Because that doesn't buy 1 SP.

[Nick Nelson]

 

I don't know why anyone trusts a SD pitcher to be good outside SD....

 

And, if he's a legit prospect to be a number 1/2 type, it will take way more than a guy with 3-4 years of control and a guy in low who just missed a year of baseball with an injury.

Lamet has pitched 1 season with the Padres and wasn't that great. He's not being suggested because of his numbers in San Diego. He's young, has good stuff and a 2.99 ERA in the minors. 

 

He's not a "legit 1/2 type" now, that's the point. He's never been a top prospect and wasn't spectacular as a rookie. But he has the underlying components to break out, IMO. The idea is to find those guys BEFORE they make that leap and thus not have to give up the farm. 

 

Folks, are we automatically dismissing every pitcher that comes out of the Padres system now? Because, you know, some guy named Kluber was fished out of the very same organization...