Article: Can Minnesota Follow Houston's Blueprint?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

People remember the champions. Have you ever heard of a team called the Minnesota Vikings, who were for a time the winningest team in NFL history and are still in the top 8-10? Does anyone treat the team that way, even in Minnesota?

 

If you're good enough to be one of the best regular season teams and also make it to the World Series, you have close to a coin flip's chance of winning the series. I'm not going to say Cleveland is a failure because they failed to get one more out after the ~60 outs they already got in the 2016 Series.

[USAFChief]

If you're good enough to be one of the best regular season teams and also make it to the World Series, you have close to a coin flip's chance of winning the series. I'm not going to say Cleveland is a failure because they failed to get one more out after the ~60 outs they already got in the 2016 Series.

They would view themSELVES as having failed.

 

The point isn't to be the win per dollar spent champ, he third wins champ, the TeamWithTheMostWAR. The WeAlmostWonTeam.

 

The point is to win the WS.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

They would view themSELVES as having failed.

The point isn't to be the win per dollar spent champ, he third wins champ, the TeamWithTheMostWAR. The WeAlmostWonTeam.

The point is to win the WS.

Sure, they want to win. Their fanbase wants them to win.

 

But "all or nothing" is a frustrating way to be a fan of anything. Personally, I enjoyed the hell out of the 2017 season and the relatively meager 85 wins from Minnesota.

 

If I can't enjoy the process and only celebrate the result, I'll be a truly happy sports fan once every couple of decades.

 

Do what you can to get there and give yourself a legitimate chance to win it all. That's all I can ask. Whether you get that 63rd out or fail at 62 is not going to dictate whether you succeed or fail.

[tvagle]

Not to change the topic but I'm struggling with TwinsDaily math...

 

27 outs made by one team, got by the other team in a 9 inning game

 

60th out gotten by the Indians would be like the end of the 2nd inning of game 3??

 

Why the focus on the 60,61,62,63 out being gotten 

 

End of Math Class...resume quantifying and qualifying what failure is

[terrydactyls]

Yeah, no single miss hurts. But when combined...

Just missing on both Jay and Stewart stings. And then there's all those other picks.

 

Missing on Jay? I think that is a little premature. He may be our closer by the enkd of next season. Or they may try him as a starter again next year. Way to early to call that draft pick a failure.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Missing on Jay? I think that is a little premature. He may be our closer by the enkd of next season. Or they may try him as a starter again next year. Way to early to call that draft pick a failure.

Missing on Jay in the sense that he was drafted to be a starter and will not start games in Minnesota. He can still be valuable, just not as valuable as his draft placement.

[gunnarthor]

 

Missing on Jay in the sense that he was drafted to be a starter and will not start games in Minnesota. He can still be valuable, just not as valuable as his draft placement.

Actually, as you know, if he's a viable reliever, he'll still be viable for his draft spot. Baseball drafts are really, really hard.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Actually, as you know, if he's a viable reliever, he'll still be viable for his draft spot. Baseball drafts are really, really hard.

Sure, the reality is that getting a good reliever from almost any pick is a decent return on the pick.

 

But that’s not your goal with the fifth or sixth pick or wherever Jay landed.

 

Jay and Stewart are part of the reason why I’ve come around on the idea of avoiding arms at the top of the draft.

[gunnarthor]

 

Jay and Stewart are part of the reason why I’ve come around on the idea of avoiding arms at the top of the draft.

I disagree. You just have to accept that there will be misses. If Gonsalves went in the first round and Stewart went in the fourth, would that change how you view that draft?

 

Pitchers are a quantity game. Stewart was definitely the right pick. I see arguments against the Jay pick but still understand it.

[Deduno Abides]

They would view themSELVES as having failed.

The point isn't to be the win per dollar spent champ, he third wins champ, the TeamWithTheMostWAR. The WeAlmostWonTeam.

The point is to win the WS.

For years, Strat-o-Matic considered the 1927 Pirates and the 1953 Dodgers to be among the greatest teams of all time, despite not winning the World Series. For years, people around here have celebrated the 1965 Twins. Of course, it’s best to win, but there’s merit and accomplishment in being a great team, even if it was ultimately unsuccessful.

[markos]

 

Sure, the reality is that getting a good reliever from almost any pick is a decent return on the pick.

But that’s not your goal with the fifth or sixth pick or wherever Jay landed.

Jay and Stewart are part of the reason why I’ve come around on the idea of avoiding arms at the top of the draft.

Not only Jay and Stewart, but look at the Astros. They took Appel over Bryant, and only thanks to collective bargaining rules were able recoup the value of the Aiken pick (which turned into Bregman). They were lucky that Aiken turned down their reduced offer. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I disagree. You just have to accept that there will be misses. If Gonsalves went in the first round and Stewart went in the fourth, would that change how you view that draft?

 

Pitchers are a quantity game. Stewart was definitely the right pick. I see arguments against the Jay pick but still understand it.

I agree that pitchers are a quantity game but I believe in collecting that quantity in round two or later.

 

It's part of the reason why I was such a fan of the Twins' last draft.

[caninatl04]

Can we agree that it’s just too bad that the Jay and Stewart picks didn’t make our best dreams come true?

[Brock Beauchamp]

Can we agree that it’s just too bad that the Jay and Stewart picks didn’t make our best dreams come true?

That’s a bit of a strawman. All I’m saying is that this org would look a hell of a lot different if even one of them projected to be an adequate #3. That’s a relatively low bar to set.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Can we agree that it’s just too bad that the Jay and Stewart picks didn’t make our best dreams come true?

 

I think so... But I think it's also fair to note that the book isn't quite closed on either of them yet. Stewart at this point should be written off by most, but he's on the 40 man and has started to shown he can get the Ks (just not consistently)... He could be a surprise, even if the odds are low. Jay could still be a dominant reliever.

[Mr. Brooks]

I think so... But I think it's also fair to note that the book isn't quite closed on either of them yet. Stewart at this point should be written off by most, but he's on the 40 man and has started to shown he can get the Ks (just not consistently)... He could be a surprise, even if the odds are low. Jay could still be a dominant reliever.

When was Stewart added to the 40 man?

[caninatl04]

 

That’s a bit of a strawman. All I’m saying is that this org would look a hell of a lot different if even one of them projected to be an adequate #3. That’s a relatively low bar to set.

I agree completely-- I was just trying to nudge the conversation away from pointing fingers.

[dgwills]

We can't forget how hard the Astro's tanked to get the players they have now. The Twins did have the first pick last year, but they were usually picking around fifth. Big difference in the players you get. I do realize Buxton was a top pick as well.

[drjim]

We can't forget how hard the Astro's tanked to get the players they have now. The Twins did have the first pick last year, but they were usually picking around fifth. Big difference in the players you get. I do realize Buxton was a top pick as well.

The Astros puked up a #1 pick too, so not just the Twins blowing high picks. What the Astros did really well compared to the Ryan Twins was consistently producing good whole drafts and working the entire draft pool.

 

Even though the Astros made a boatload of trades as they were tearing down, they didn't really accumulate a ton of value, and the few times they did, it was usually from the third piece, not the primary return.

 

The current front office inherited some core pieces (Altuve/Springer/Keuchel), drafted well (Correa/Bregman/McCullers), added some under the radar guys, were aggressive with adding mlbers via trade when they were competitive, and filled in the final gaps with some short year free agents.

 

Very smart, very replicable model, even if the Twins (hopefully) won't have the same opportunity to draft as high for a while.

[dgwills]

 

The Astros puked up a #1 pick too, so not just the Twins blowing high picks. What the Astros did really well compared to the Ryan Twins was consistently producing good whole drafts and working the entire draft pool.

Even though the Astros made a boatload of trades as they were tearing down, they didn't really accumulate a ton of value, and the few times they did, it was usually from the third piece, not the primary return.

The current front office inherited some core pieces (Altuve/Springer/Keuchel), drafted well (Correa/Bregman/McCullers), added some under the radar guys, were aggressive with adding mlbers via trade when they were competitive, and filled in the final gaps with some short year free agents.

Very smart, very replicable model, even if the Twins (hopefully) won't have the same opportunity to draft as high for a while.

They did screw up some top picks for sure, but they also got the huge draft pools to play with in the first place. Correa, Bregman, and McCullers are a product of that.We really can't go back in time, but just think if we were drafting a little higher and had Jon Gray, Carlos Rodon and Alex Bregman instead of Kohl Stewart, Nick Gordon, and Tyler Jay. Not to mention picking up better players later in the draft due to the bonus pool.

It is a pretty good argument for tanking although many find it unseemly. Including me, but it still should of been done. I am glad we won't be in that position for a while.

[jimmer]

 

They did screw up some top picks for sure, but they also got the huge draft pools to play with in the first place. Correa, Bregman, and McCullers are a product of that.We really can't go back in time, but just think if we were drafting a little higher and had Jon Gray, Carlos Rodon and Alex Bregman instead of Kohl Stewart, Nick Gordon, and Tyler Jay. Not to mention picking up better players later in the draft due to the bonus pool.

It is a pretty good argument for tanking although many find it unseemly. Including me, but it still should of been done. I am glad we won't be in that position for a while.

You assume we would have drafted Gray, Bregman and Rodon or that it would have mattered if we had drafted Gray or Rodon (meaning could we develop them?)

 

Anyway, we've drafted pretty high most of this decade. In the last 6 drafts we've drafted, 1st, 2nd, 4th, 5th, 6th and 15th.  This isn't high enough?.  Yeah, it wasn't three #1 in a row like the Astros had but only one of those will amount to anything for them anyway (yeah, he's awesome).

 

Going into this season we had the worst record in baseball this decade, I believe.  If not, very close.  We've had opportunity.

 

Twins don't draft top notch starting pitchers and/or we can't develop them(unless we're including the rule 5 draft then we did it once). Either way, at some point, it turns into an organizational failure which I believe was the case. That is one of a few reasons why I'm glad the new guys are on board.

Edited October 29, 2017 by jimmer

[Rhino and Compass]

I think a good lesson for the Twins, and I'm sure it's well taken already, is that the biggest free agent SP the Astros added as they turned things around was Scott Feldman. They developed talent from within (McCullers and Keichel) and have had really good production from some under the radar arms (McHugh and Morton). Sure, they grabbed Verlander at the deadline this year, but to get to a point where that matters, you need a lot more depth. 

I'm already conditioned to believe that, if they sign any of the top FA pitchers, it will bite Minnesota in the butt before it pays off. 

[dgwills]

 

You assume we would have drafted Gray, Bregman and Rodon or that it would have mattered if we had drafted Gray or Rodon (meaning could we develop them?)

 

Anyway, we've drafted pretty high most of this decade. In the last 6 drafts we've drafted, 1st, 2nd, 4th, 5th, 6th and 15th.  This isn't high enough?.  Yeah, it wasn't three #1 in a row like the Astros had but only one of those will amount to anything for them anyway (yeah, he's awesome).

 

Going into this season we had the worst record in baseball this decade, I believe.  If not, very close.  We've had opportunity.

 

Twins don't draft top notch starting pitchers and/or we can't develop them(unless we're including the rule 5 draft then we did it once). Either way, at some point, it turns into an organizational failure which I believe was the case. That is one of a few reasons why I'm glad the new guys are on board.

To be fair there was some other good players at the top of those drafts. We also could of taken the busts of course. My point was that the Twins were signing players like Ricky Nolasco to try to win a few extra games which really just put them into the second tier of prospects. The Astros and Cubs did not do that and were at the top of their drafts.

Either way I agree with you that it is good we have knew management on board since Ryan and company really didn't get what they should of out of all those terrible seasons. I really can't speculate on the development side of things since it's really hard to say what prospects would of done in other systems.

[drjim]

 

You assume we would have drafted Gray, Bregman and Rodon or that it would have mattered if we had drafted Gray or Rodon (meaning could we develop them?)

 

Anyway, we've drafted pretty high most of this decade. In the last 6 drafts we've drafted, 1st, 2nd, 4th, 5th, 6th and 15th.  This isn't high enough?.  Yeah, it wasn't three #1 in a row like the Astros had but only one of those will amount to anything for them anyway (yeah, he's awesome).

 

Going into this season we had the worst record in baseball this decade, I believe.  If not, very close.  We've had opportunity.

 

Twins don't draft top notch starting pitchers and/or we can't develop them(unless we're including the rule 5 draft then we did it once). Either way, at some point, it turns into an organizational failure which I believe was the case. That is one of a few reasons why I'm glad the new guys are on board.

 

Twins have definitely had the opportunity. 2012 was a really good draft for the Twins, but they've had some duds.

 

On anther note, the 3 #1s produced Correa and Bregman (as compensation for not signing Aiken). That is two cornerstones. Twins at least nailed their #2, and look OK on the #1 so far.

[laloesch]

 

This is where the miss on Kohl Stewart really hurts.

 

And Jay.