Article: Do The Twins Need A Proven Closer?

[mikelink45]

Underwhelming is the word that comes to mind.  Go young - nothing else looks worth and investment.  Test the young arms, but not Pressly, he has consistently proved that he is Tonkin like when the big bats are up. 

[ThejacKmp]

Another thought is to go and find the next Kintzler/Belisle by promising someone who would be unlikely to close games elsewhere that they'll get the chance to on a 1 year deal. Since people still pay for closers, you may get someone who wants a chance to get the big bucks.

[nicksaviking]

Another thought is to go and find the next Kintzler/Belisle by promising someone who would be unlikely to close games elsewhere that they'll get the chance to on a 1 year deal. Since people still pay for closers, you may get someone who wants a chance to get the big bucks.

I can't imagine Kintzler or Belisle get big bucks though this year.

 

I want velocity and I want strikeouts. I want free agents that can offer those things, otherwise I'd rather go with the young guys who can.

[IndianaTwin]

Maybe there are examples, but it seems like young guys don't often open the season as closers and stay there. That's at least in part because they don't often get the chance, sure, but it seems rough to win the job based on the previous year, demonstrate enough in spring training to hold it, and then get off to a hot start. 

 

Rather, it seems like a lot of closers earn their way into the job by pitching lights-out and stepping in when the old guy stumbles/gets hurt. So, I like the thought of taking the flyer on the guy with closer experience (like Kintzler or even Rodney). If they keep the job, cool. If not, you've had real-time evaluation of which young guy has the hot hand THIS year. 

[h2oface]

Do The Twins Need A Proven Closer?

 

Yes.

 

Absolutely.

 

And two setup men that are lights out.

 

Not soft tossing arms. Not Tonkin and Pressly, Not Kintzler and Belisle. We have to do better to be a team that will win come October. If you just want to get to play in October, they will do, probably. If you want to win in October, not a chance.

Edited October 24, 2017 by h2oface

[USDToreros42]

Two words: Anthony McIver

Has done well at every level and as starter, mid relief and closer. Comments?

[dbminn]

I like the Brad Hand trade but it will take more than Gordon and a couple of lower prospects. He has two low-cost arb years remaining before he's a FA. Probably take Gordon and one of the very young Twins pitching prospects to get him. I'd make the deal.

 

McGee, Morrow would be top FA priorities. 

 

IMO, the Twins will need to trade for either a SP or RP and sign the other as a FA. I can't see the Twins adding $30M+ per year to the payroll for two pitchers via free agency. Especially if both are 31-33 years old to begin their contracts. 

[ThejacKmp]

 

I can't imagine Kintzler or Belisle get big bucks though this year.

I want velocity and I want strikeouts. I want free agents that can offer those things, otherwise I'd rather go with the young guys who can.

 

Not big bucks but Kintzler seems likely to get a 2-3 year deal with some nice change behind it (a welcome raise compared to his last experience with free agency). It's hard to think that he could have gotten that without being a closer (which netted him an all-star spot).

 

Belisle is a little but more up in the air because he's 37 but he'll likely get a guaranteed contract somewhere, which would seem unlikely without the closing experience given his drop in numbers and age. Without that "I can close if you need me to" narrative, he'd be selling himself as a guy on the downslope.

 

I'm with you on getting someone young with more K potential but even there, the Twins may be able to attract someone looking to bet on themselves for a year by being able to offer a clear path to a closing job. Baseball is changing to value non-closers more but they still give the big money to guys who pitch the 9th. Seems like something the Twins and a free agent could exploit.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I still maintain that your closer should be your third best reliever so no, I don’t believe the Twins need a “dominant” closer.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I would not want to stake my playoff chances on a Kintzler level arm. Don't get me wrong, he has value. But if he is the top of the pecking order for our pen, then I can't see the talent level showing much improvement. The best hope is that some of the MiLB guys make the next step. The odds of that are greater than the team spending the kind of money experienced talent would receive.

I think it’s wrong-headed to believe the closer is the top of the bullpen pecking order in the first place. I hope the front office feels the same way.

 

Find a good reliever for the ninth but he shouldn’t be the best reliever in the pen.

[Doomtints]

 

Do The Twins Need A Proven Closer?

 

Yes.

 

Absolutely.

 

And two setup men that are lights out.

 

Not soft tossing arms. Not Tonkin and Pressly, Not Kintzler and Belisle. We have to do better to be a team that will win come October. If you just want to get to play in October, they will do, probably. If you want to win in October, not a chance.

 

Exactly. I'm not sure how anyone who lived through the Nathan years can think closers don't matter. Nathan made the 8th inning guys look better because opposing teams were trying to force things to happen before Nathan came in, and Rincon/Romero were pretty damn good at times in their own rights....

[beckmt]

More of the better relievers are coming to be multi-inning relievers.  I want some of them.  We should be able to develop a few, but would like to buy one or two.  

Twins also need one ace type starter.  This is the year to go get one.

[Darius]

Proven - as in converted a high number and percentage of saves? No.

 

Proven - as in has consistently been a good pitcher? Yes.

[Darius]

Exactly. I'm not sure how anyone who lived through the Nathan years can think closers don't matter. Nathan made the 8th inning guys look better because opposing teams were trying to force things to happen before Nathan came in, and Rincon/Romero were pretty damn good at times in their own rights....

It's interesting that the post you're replying to delves into what it takes to win in October, and you cite Joe Nathan, who collected 1 save, 1 loss, and 1 blown save in the postseason for the Twins. That in 8.2 innings, while walking 7 batters and allowing 6 runs in that span.

 

Nathan is one of the best closers of all time, but my God was he brutal in the playoffs.

Edited October 25, 2017 by Darius

[h2oface]

 

I think it’s wrong-headed to believe the closer is the top of the bullpen pecking order in the first place. I hope the front office feels the same way.

Find a good reliever for the ninth but he shouldn’t be the best reliever in the pen.

 

Maybe not, if the guy is a clone of Andrew Miller. 

 

[Doomtints]

 

It's interesting that the post you're replying to delves into what it takes to win in October, and you cite Joe Nathan, who collected 1 save, 1 loss, and 1 blown save in the postseason for the Twins. That in 8.2 innings, while walking 7 batters and allowing 6 runs in that span.

Nathan is one of the best closers of all time, but my God was he brutal in the playoffs.

 

The Twins likely would have not been in the postseason at all most or all of those years without Nathan.

[gunnarthor]

 

I would not want to stake my playoff chances on a Kintzler level arm. Don't get me wrong, he has value. 

Would you rather have had him pitch or Hildenberger and Busentiz?

 

And, frankly, our bullpen was fine at the end of the season and did ok against NY. Santana and Berrios gave up all but one run.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

The Twins likely would have not been in the postseason at all most or all of those years without Nathan.

 

This discussion is ironic given that Nathan was not a proven closer when we got him.

 

This team needs relief help, and they need guys who can get the Ks and have the mentality to walk into those pressure situations and shine, but as we saw, guys like Kintzler and Guardado can do that job just fine. I don't have a problem with a guy like Nathan in that role, but right now, we just need more guys like Nathan. The correct words to search for are "shutdown reliever" not "proven closer."

[drjim]

Getting Nathan seems like a pretty impressive scouting find. He was a solid reliever for the Giants, but really took a leap when he became a Twin.

 

That is the type of move that takes a team to the next level.

[Doomtints]

 

This discussion is ironic given that Nathan was not a proven closer when we got him.

 

It's not ironic at all given that the discussion is actually "closers are overrated." If the Twins can find a Nathan-in-the-rough on some other team, yeah go get him without hesitation.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

It's not ironic at all given that the discussion is actually "closers are overrated." If the Twins can find a Nathan-in-the-rough on some other team, yeah go get him without hesitation.

Closers are overrated.

 

I think we can all agree that Molitor would be a better manager if he looked a lot more like Terry Francona.

 

Andrew Miller is not Cleveland's "closer". He's their best bullpen arm. He entered the game in the ninth inning six times in 2017. He had 57 appearances.

[USAFChief]

Closers are overrated.

 

I think we can all agree that Molitor would be a better manager if he looked a lot more like Terry Francona.

 

Andrew Miller is not Cleveland's "closer". He's their best bullpen arm. He entered the game in the ninth inning six times in 2017. He had 57 appearances.

Or we could look at Dave Roberts, manager of the team with the best regular season record. Kenley Jansen is his best reliever. He got into 65 games, and finished 57 of them.

 

It would be interesting to see what Franconia would have done with Miller if he lost Allen.

 

I don't think closers are overrated as much as deep and strong bullpens are underrated.

[Doomtints]

 

Closers are overrated.

 

I think we can all agree that Molitor would be a better manager if he looked a lot more like Terry Francona.

 

Andrew Miller is not Cleveland's "closer". He's their best bullpen arm. He entered the game in the ninth inning six times in 2017. He had 57 appearances.

 

What's the difference between the 2016 Cubs and the 2017 Cubs?

[Mike Sixel]

 

What's the difference between the 2016 Cubs and the 2017 Cubs?

 

mostly luck and CF defense and regression from several players, not 1 player....

 

People really vastly underestimate luck or randomness in sports

[jimmer]

Cubs still won their division and made in the the NLCS.  Very good year for them.  Losing Fowler was big and a falloff from the pitching staff was an issue for them too.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Cubs still won their division and made in the the NLCS.  Very good year for them.  Losing Fowler was big and a falloff from the pitching staff was an issue for them too.

Yeah... It's really hard to win 100 games in back-to-back seasons because it requires quite a bit of luck along with a really good roster. The last team to go back-to-back was the 2003-2004 Yankees, I believe. We're nearing 15 years without a back-to-back 100 win team.

 

It's not like the Cubs collapsed. They won over 90 games.

[laloesch]

 

Would you rather have had him pitch or Hildenberger and Busentiz?

 

And, frankly, our bullpen was fine at the end of the season and did ok against NY. Santana and Berrios gave up all but one run.

 

Yep.  Exposed the teams biggest weakness (lack of a top of the rotation caliper starter).  Santana is a good pitcher but not ace caliper and never has been.  Berrios might get there eventually but the jury is still out.