Article: The Brian Dozier Trade That Almost Was

[Mr. Brooks]

One team does not define likely outcomes and nowhere did I suggest we should construct a team the way those twins teams were built. Did Cleveland and Detroit have multiple playoff runs during the periods mentioned. How about St Louis who by the way have been one of the most profitable franchises over the last 20 years so they obviously had additional spending capacity?

 

Let's not get away from the real point which is building a team that is a perennial playoff team vs pushing all your chips in to maximize your odds during a very short window. Are you OK with 20 years of futility like the Royals and Pirates had before having a brief window of contention? The just go for it approach is fine for fans but the people that get paid to lead organizations don't get to such a position by ignoring the long-term impact of their decisions.

If it results in a WS ring, yes I'm more than ok with it.

Winning a championship is the ONLY thing that defines success, IMO.

There isn't much difference between 2nd place and 30th place to me, they both finished the season losers.

I get many disagree, that's fine.

[prouster]

How is attempting to build a staff beyond 2017 a myopic view?

Trading Dozier for JDL straight up would not have been building beyond 2017.

[KirbyDome89]

 

Trading Dozier for JDL straight up would not have been building beyond 2017.

They would've had him through 2023.....so yes, it is. 

[AZTwin]

They would've had him through 2023.....so yes, it is.

We have control over a lot of pitchers through 2023 that don’t necessarily build for the future. Love a guy like Chargois but I wouldn’t trade a player like Dozier to get him and then claim somehow we’re setting ourselves up for the future

[KirbyDome89]

 

We have control over a lot of pitchers through 2023 that don’t necessarily build for the future. Love a guy like Chargois but I wouldn’t trade a player like Dozier to get him and then claim somehow we’re setting ourselves up for the future

Chargois isn't JDL so not sure where you're going with that....but he is a future bullpen piece so...

 

If you're brining in a starting pitcher with the intention of him being in the rotation beyond 18' you're setting yourself up for the future...

 

 

[AZTwin]

I bet LA wish they paid a bit more for Dozier right about now.

[prouster]

Chargois isn't JDL so not sure where you're going with that....but he is a future bullpen piece so...

 

If you're brining in a starting pitcher with the intention of him being in the rotation beyond 18' you're setting yourself up for the future...

I think the point is that there's no use in controlling a player for several years if he can't stay on the field. Will JDL overcome his injury problems? Maybe, but I wouldn't give up a player of Dozier's caliber to find out.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Everybody wants to "win," every move and always wants more. As fans of course we always want a better deal, but our feelings towards that are irrelevant. Sometimes you pay or take market value, and in this case it was JDL.

 

You keep changing your rationale. This has nothing to do with winning a trade and everything to do with making a trade that makes sense. JDL for Dozier straight up didn't do that. It was highly likely that we lose the trade, and so far there's no question that we would have.  You ask for more assets because of the risk being absorbed by taking JDL... and there was a lot of it... a lot less than whatever risk LA absorbs by taking BD.

[BrianTrottier]

 

Chargois isn't JDL so not sure where you're going with that....but he is could be a future bullpen piece so... at some point in the in future assuming his arm remains attached to his body, given his injury history.

 

If you're brining in a starting pitcher with the intention of him being in the rotation beyond 18' you're setting yourself up for the future...

 

FTFY.

[USAFChief]

KirbyDome:  I think you're completely ignoring the value of 2 seasons of Brian Dozier.  

 

The point is to win baseball games.  Current games count just as much as future ones, at least.  In fact, in my opinion, winning current games is about all you can try to do.  Thinking you can plan for five years down the road in MLB is wishful thinking, IMO.

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

KirbyDome:  I think you're completely ignoring the value of 2 seasons of Brian Dozier.  

 

The point is to win baseball games.  Current games count just as much as future ones, at least.  In fact, in my opinion, winning current games is about all you can try to do.  Thinking you can plan for five years down the road in MLB is wishful thinking, IMO.

Yep, and 2018 should shake out to be a very good season for the Twins if the front office makes the right moves. They were 19th in ERA and 25th in FIP (which I believe is a bit misleading because Buxton). Kinda bad, but not without hope.

 

Gibson made some strides late in the season. The bullpen wasn't atrocious late in the season. Chargois and Jay might be ready pretty early in the season. Gonsalves and Romero might be ready pretty early in the season. May will be back, though I don't count on him for much coming back from TJ (though with a good fastball, he might be serviceable).

 

Pick up a decent starter and a decent reliever and this team could be a legitimate contender out of the gate. This offense, powered by a full season Buxton, could have them sniffing 90 wins if the front office plays the right hand.

[Doomtints]

 

Yep, and 2018 should shake out to be a very good season for the Twins if the front office makes the right moves. They were 19th in ERA and 25th in FIP (which I believe is a bit misleading because Buxton). Kinda bad, but not without hope.

 

FIP doesn't include any ball that would get hit to Buxton, though, unless you are saying the ERA would have been higher if not for Buxton.

 

In any case, the Twins pitching was much better in the 2nd half. I think you almost have to throw out the first half pitching stats for 2017. The Twins won games in spite of their pitching in the first half, but down the stretch everyone was contributing. Division foes will be worried if the Twins manage to field a full set of starters next year.

Edited November 2, 2017 by Doomtints

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

FIP doesn't include any ball that would get hit to Buxton, though, unless you are saying the ERA would have been higher if not for Buxton.

 

In any case, the Twins pitching was much better in the 2nd half. I think you almost have to throw out the first half pitching stats for 2017. The Twins won games in spite of their pitching in the first half, but down the stretch everyone was contributing. Division foes will be worried if the Twins manage to field a full set of starters next year.

Well, FIP excludes all non true outcome balls, which assumes a normalization of those balls. I'm not sure that's accurate given the Twins outfield defense and the pitching staff's general flyball tendencies.

[sthpstm]

 

I bet LA wish they paid a bit more for Dozier right about now.

As a Dodgers fan (Twins fan first, but live in southern California for 6 years), I thought at the time it was a huge mistake to not give up more to get Dozier and I certainly feel that way now. They obviously have a lot of position player talent, but the players were all a little bland. I know Puig isn't, but I wouldn't call Puig's energy infectious. Dozier's energy has seemed to be that. He doesn't back down and he brings others with him. I thought and am more convinced, the Dodger's were missing that, but the intensely analytical Dodgers FO didn't value that.

[ashbury]

As a Dodgers fan (Twins fan first, but live in southern California for 6 years), I thought at the time it was a huge mistake to not give up more to get Dozier and I certainly feel that way now. They obviously have a lot of position player talent, but the players were all a little bland. I know Puig isn't, but I wouldn't call Puig's energy infectious. Dozier's energy has seemed to be that. He doesn't back down and he brings others with him. I thought and am more convinced, the Dodger's were missing that, but the intensely analytical Dodgers FO didn't value that.

I tend to discount the effect of infectious energy too. Maybe it comes and goes, and we can only see after the fact when his team goes 83-79 versus 59-103 versus 85-77.

 

And strictly result-merchanting, it's not clear from Logan Forsythe's World Series numbers that he dragged the team down, versus what might have been expected from Dozier replacing him. A lot of other targets on that team to point fingers at, ahead of him.

[Mike Sixel]

We should ignore the first half of the year? Those results aren't indicative of anything? Not sure I buy that.

[sthpstm]

 

I tend to discount the effect of infectious energy too. Maybe it comes and goes, and we can only see after the fact when his team goes 83-79 versus 59-103 versus 85-77.

 

And strictly result-merchanting, it's not clear from Logan Forsythe's World Series numbers that he dragged the team down, versus what might have been expected from Dozier replacing him. A lot of other targets on that team to point fingers at, ahead of him.

Oh yeah, i'm clearly making some gut calls on premise. I don't deny this.

It was interesting to follow the Adrian Gonzalez story and to read the players comments. Players were obviously upset but no one would really say it. Would a player taking the the Brian Dozier route which he took after the Garcia and Kintzler trades (I'm mad as hell, I don't care who knows, and I'm not going to take it any more/get on my back - I'll carry us), have had a positive effect that would have equated to a WS ring? I have no idea, but I think it has to be considered.

[Riverbrian]

If the trade would have happened.

 

If DeLeon would have thrown 40 professional Innings... including a 6.75 ERA in Rochester over 12 innings in 2017.

 

If Dozier hit 30 plus Home Runs with the Dodgers in 2017. 

 

The immediate result on TD would be a public hanging of the brand new front office from the majority of us.

 

It would have taken multiple years before they are forgiven... if ever. It would have been a real bad first impression that would last. 

 

I give them credit for a fantastic non-trade... and I will still give them credit if DeLeon eventually becomes a dominant MLB Starter. 

 

 

 

[KirbyDome89]

 

KirbyDome:  I think you're completely ignoring the value of 2 seasons of Brian Dozier.  

 

The point is to win baseball games.  Current games count just as much as future ones, at least.  In fact, in my opinion, winning current games is about all you can try to do.  Thinking you can plan for five years down the road in MLB is wishful thinking, IMO.

The current WS champs would argue differently.

[KirbyDome89]

 

You keep changing your rationale. This has nothing to do with winning a trade and everything to do with making a trade that makes sense. JDL for Dozier straight up didn't do that. It was highly likely that we lose the trade, and so far there's no question that we would have.  You ask for more assets because of the risk being absorbed by taking JDL... and there was a lot of it... a lot less than whatever risk LA absorbs by taking BD.

Where have I been inconsistent? 

 

Risk aversion isn't going to get them the pitching they need. 

[Squirrel]

Where have I been inconsistent?

 

Risk aversion isn't going to get them the pitching they need.

This non-trade wasn’t about risk aversion. It was about it being too one-sided making it a bad deal and good they didn’t do it

[KirbyDome89]

 

I think the point is that there's no use in controlling a player for several years if he can't stay on the field. Will JDL overcome his injury problems? Maybe, but I wouldn't give up a player of Dozier's caliber to find out.

I guess I'm not as enamored with idea of one more year of Dozier or having to pay significant money to extend him. 

Edited November 2, 2017 by KirbyDome89

[KirbyDome89]

 

This non-trade wasn’t about risk aversion. It was about it being too one-sided making it a bad deal and good they didn’t do it

"You ask for more assets because of the risk being absorbed by taking JDL... and there was a lot of it... a lot less than whatever risk LA absorbs by taking BD."

 

Maybe you two should figure that one out...

[prouster]

 

The current WS champs would argue differently.

 

I don't understand. Keuchel and McCullers were drafted and developed. Morton was a low-key FA signing that probably would have been lampooned here had the Twins done it. Fiers was left off the WS roster. Peacock was a tertiary piece in a trade several years ago, which seems to support the idea that you should try to maximize the value you get when making moves, rather than accepting whatever the other team offers. Verlander is an aging pitcher on a large contract with a track record that may get him into the HOF. He was acquired by sending a few solid prospects to Detroit. This is the exact opposite of trading Dozier for JDL.

 

So, I'm having difficulty figuring out your point here. Are you referring to their success hoarding young position players? Because that's what the Twins are already doing.

[KirbyDome89]

 

FTFY.

Almost all of their top end pitching prospects have dealt with injury; especially last season. That is part of the deal with pitching. You must be very concerned given the injury history of the youth and the look of the  current group...

 

 

[KirbyDome89]

 

I don't understand. Keuchel and McCullers were drafted and developed. Morton was a low-key FA signing that probably would have been lampooned here had the Twins done it. Fiers was left off the WS roster. Peacock was a tertiary piece in a trade several years ago, which seems to support the idea that you should try to maximize the value you get when making moves, rather than accepting whatever the other team offers. Verlander is an aging pitcher on a large contract with a track record that may get him into the HOF. He was acquired by sending a few solid prospects to Detroit. This is the exact opposite of trading Dozier for JDL.

 

So, I'm having difficulty figuring out your point here. Are you referring to their success hoarding young position players? Because that's what the Twins are already doing.

It's pretty clear...

 

Houston went scorched earth for a couple years and it has paid off. They set their sights on building beyond a single season. I disagree that you only need to be concerned with "winning current games." The Astros have proven that isn't the only strategy that works.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

"You ask for more assets because of the risk being absorbed by taking JDL... and there was a lot of it... a lot less than whatever risk LA absorbs by taking BD."

 

Maybe you two should figure that one out...

You do realize that your quote from me is exactly what Chitown was saying right? 

 

I think you'd be wise to look up risk aversion. Terry Ryan was risk averse. He never traded anyone unless said trade was terribly one sided. I'm not saying we needed to do the same the thing to LA, but to accept only JDL for Dozier would have been akin to trading Garza for Young. That's now how you build a team.

[prouster]

 

It's pretty clear...

 

Houston went scorched earth for a couple years and it has paid off. They set their sights on building beyond a single season. I disagree that you only need to be concerned with "winning current games." The Astros have proven that isn't the only strategy that works.

 

Are you suggesting the Twins close shop for the next five years immediately after earning a wild card spot? Trade everyone for anything?

 

And this doesn't even begin to address any of the counterpoints I offered in my post. What do you think of Houston's methods of acquiring pitching? Because they didn't really trade veterans for prospects. Not that the Twins shouldn't—Houston is just a bad example of the point you're trying to (I think) argue.

Edited November 2, 2017 by prouster

[KirbyDome89]

 

Are you suggesting the Twins close shop for the next five years immediately after earning a wild card spot? Trade everyone for anything?

 

And this doesn't even begin to address any of the counterpoints I offered in my post. What do you think of Houston's methods of acquiring pitching? Because they didn't really trade veterans for prospects. Not that the Twins shouldn't—Houston is just a bad example of the point you're trying to (I think) argue.

Where are you getting this? Did you read the OP I responded to? 

 

That post said you play for the current season. I disagree that's the only way to build a winning team. Houston certainly didn't didn't play for the current season in 11'-13'.

 

Idc how each individual piece was acquired. That was never the point of the post...

[KirbyDome89]

 

You do realize that your quote from me is exactly what Chitown was saying right? 

 

I think you'd be wise to look up risk aversion. Terry Ryan was risk averse. He never traded anyone unless said trade was terribly one sided. I'm not saying we needed to do the same the thing to LA, but to accept only JDL for Dozier would have been akin to trading Garza for Young. That's now how you build a team.

She says it isn't about risk, you post saying it is....you do realize that isn't the same thing right?

 

You're right, he never traded anyone. It's a big reason why the Twins were consistently bounced immediately from the postseason. They had some great players and failed to support them. You'd be wise to realize there are reasons TR is no longer in the organization...