Article: The Brian Dozier Trade That Almost Was

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I'm arguing that those saying the Twins can win in this window by getting lucky and identifying the "next Arrieta" are fooling themselves. The Twins have tried to go cheap and find diamonds in the rough ever since McPhail left. 

 

If they won't spend money and/or trade big time prospects, this isn't happening w/o significant luck.

 

Your problem, Mike, is that no one is saying it just like this. You're arguing against an idea that literally no one on this board supports.

 

We need to find the next Arrieta, that's not up for debate, and hiring Falvine was a step in that direction, but I don't think anyone is saying that this is the only way to handle the team going forward. If someone is, let them step up and say so.

[USAFChief]

Your problem, Mike, is that no one is saying it just like this. You're arguing against an idea that literally no one on this board supports.

 

We need to find the next Arrieta, that's not up for debate, and hiring Falvine was a step in that direction, but I don't think anyone is saying that this is the only way to handle the team going forward. If someone is, let them step up and say so.

Actually, plenty of people say exactly that. They just couch it in terms like "can't afford to sign the best free agents," "don't trade away prospects," and "our deep minor league system will supply what we need." "That's what Falvine where hired for, to turn magic beans onto ace starters, like Cleveland!"

 

If those are your positions, you're saying "just find the next Arrieta."

 

For proof, I offer the "hunt for an ace" thread.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Your problem, Mike, is that no one is saying it just like this. You're arguing against an idea that literally no one on this board supports.

 

We need to find the next Arrieta, that's not up for debate, and hiring Falvine was a step in that direction, but I don't think anyone is saying that this is the only way to handle the team going forward. If someone is, let them step up and say so.

 

Well, we read the comments differently, and that's cool. I read pretty much every day that the Twins can't afford the best FAs (and I agree with that). I also read that they shouldn't trade the future, because "I want them to be great for my whole lifetime", or that "the Twins don't have the pieces to trade for great players". I also read that "all they have to do is find the next Arrieta" from a lot of posters. 

 

Maybe we interpret those statements differently, and maybe they are not exclusive to each other? It's certainly possible I'm reading the board wrong. But, IME, the Twins don't sign the expensive FAs, and they don't trade legit prospects for great players. Cleveland also does not do that, so if we are following their approach, we won't see trades of good/great prospects for proven players. Houston, OTOH, does do that. So if they are following Houston, we might see that.

 

edit: and I see Chief agrees with my reading....

Edited October 25, 2017 by Mike Sixel

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Actually, plenty of people say exactly that. They just couch it in terms like "can't afford to sign the best free agents," "don't trade away prospects," and "our deep minor league system will supply what we need." "That's what Falvine where hired for, to turn magic beans onto ace starters, like Cleveland!"

If those are your positions, you're saying "just find the next Arrieta."

For proof, I offer the "hunt for an ace" thread.

 

That might be true if the same people are both stating "don't trade prospects" and "don't spend the money". Are you sure that's the case? 

 

I'm not.

 

Or perhaps they are simply stating that the Twins wont' go spend the money (that might be right, but not necessarily an edict on what they should or shouldn't do).

 

I'm simply saying that I don't think anyone is saying "do nothing and find the next Kubler/Arietta". 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

 

 

Maybe we interpret those statements differently, and maybe they are not exclusive to each other? It's certainly possible I'm reading the board wrong. But, IME, the Twins don't sign the expensive FAs, and they don't trade legit prospects for great players. Cleveland also does not do that, so if we are following their approach, we won't see trades of good/great prospects for proven players. Houston, OTOH, does do that. So if they are following Houston, we might see that.

 

edit: and I see Chief agrees with my reading....

 

I think to an extent we need to see what this new FO will do. We are basing a lot of this on how the old FO operated. We don't know how much came from Pohlad vs. Ryan.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I think to an extent we need to see what this new FO will do. We are basing a lot of this on how the old FO operated. We don't know how much came from Pohlad vs. Ryan.

 

Agreed, but the new FO has been clear, they aren't going to spend huge dollars in FA on one player. That's not going to change. 

[drjim]

 

Well, we read the comments differently, and that's cool. I read pretty much every day that the Twins can't afford the best FAs (and I agree with that). I also read that they shouldn't trade the future, because "I want them to be great for my whole lifetime", or that "the Twins don't have the pieces to trade for great players". I also read that "all they have to do is find the next Arrieta" from a lot of posters. 

 

Maybe we interpret those statements differently, and maybe they are not exclusive to each other? It's certainly possible I'm reading the board wrong. But, IME, the Twins don't sign the expensive FAs, and they don't trade legit prospects for great players. Cleveland also does not do that, so if we are following their approach, we won't see trades of good/great prospects for proven players. Houston, OTOH, does do that. So if they are following Houston, we might see that.

 

edit: and I see Chief agrees with my reading....

 

Cleveland traded great prospects for Andrew Miller as recently as last season. Houston does not sign high end starting pitcher FAs. So I'm not even sure what your references are trying to show.

 

It is certainly possible that Falvey will operate exactly like Terry Ryan did, but I wouldn't bet on it. Comparing what the Twins did in the middle of 7 terrible to mediocre seasons to what franchises that were on the cusp of winning a World Series will give you a skewed perspective.

 

And on another note - the Twins don't have the prospects to trade for a great pitcher. This can be seen as an excuse or a reality, probably depends on what bias is being brought to the table.

[drjim]

 

I think to an extent we need to see what this new FO will do. We are basing a lot of this on how the old FO operated. We don't know how much came from Pohlad vs. Ryan.

 

I suspect the biggest difference will be a willingness to trade prospects. Don't think the free agent approach will change all that much.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Cleveland traded great prospects for Andrew Miller as recently as last season. Houston does not sign high end starting pitcher FAs. So I'm not even sure what your references are trying to show.

 

It is certainly possible that Falvey will operate exactly like Terry Ryan did, but I wouldn't bet on it. Comparing what the Twins did in the middle of 7 terrible to mediocre seasons to what franchises that were on the cusp of winning a World Series will give you a skewed perspective.

 

And on another note - the Twins don't have the prospects to trade for a great pitcher. This can be seen as an excuse or a reality, probably depends on what bias is being brought to the table.

 

Somehow I had forgotten the Miller trade. Sigh. So, both teams are willing to trade legit prospects for veterans. Let's hope that part does change here....

[laloesch]

 

They can? Who is making that offer? Why is he suddenly more valuable coming off a lesser season and with only one year of control instead of two? 

 

What pieces? They have the real Ervin (not the April-May .98 ERA Ervin) and Berrios. After that it's nothing but question marks, inconsistency, and AAAA pitching. That isn't a staff anywhere near actual playoff contention. 

 

I understand both sides on this issue.  I get your point, not sure i 100% agree, but i respect your opinion AND I don't need or want to mock your ideas in the process as seemed to be happening on page 3....and now after reading this thread it's perfectly clear to me why it happens so often in general on this site. 

 

I am firmly in the camp that this team needs to go after front line starters and soon.  Ervin is not going to be around that much longer and that leaves us with basically Berrios and a whole lot of question marks afterwords.  I think the only real solution is to trade one or multiple young prospects for a front end rotation guy.  Might end up having to be one or multiple guys from Sano, Buxton, Dozier, Kepler, Rosario and other lesser prospects such as Gordon.  It would be easier to add a mid rotation guy like Lance Lynn via free agency once you have that ace starter in place to build around. 

 

We'll see.  I'm not convinced it happens any time soon.  

Edited October 25, 2017 by laloesch

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I suspect the biggest difference will be a willingness to trade prospects. Don't think the free agent approach will change all that much.

 

While I understand and respect what you're saying, I do hope you're wrong about the FA part.  It's a poor decision on their part if that's what they do.

[drjim]

 

While I understand and respect what you're saying, I do hope you're wrong about the FA part.  It's a poor decision on their part if that's what they do.

 

I just don't see them going 6-7 years at big money for a pitcher. Just not especially realistic at their revenue/payroll levels. Much more likely to go for 3-4 year deals like Ryan has done. Top of the rotation guys need to come via trade or internal development.

[bird]

 

I'd like to hire you for a job. I'll pay you $1,000 a year.

 

I bet you haven't gotten another job offer today. This is the best offer you've received, you should take it.

 

 

Good thing you left out that your check might bounce.

[prouster]

Actually, plenty of people say exactly that. They just couch it in terms like "can't afford to sign the best free agents," "don't trade away prospects," and "our deep minor league system will supply what we need." "That's what Falvine where hired for, to turn magic beans onto ace starters, like Cleveland!"

 

If those are your positions, you're saying "just find the next Arrieta."

 

For proof, I offer the "hunt for an ace" thread.

I don't think the argument is "don't trade prospects." I think that in general it's "the Twins don't have the quality/quantity of prospects needed to land a guy that will move the needle enough to justify gutting the farm." That seems like a pretty big difference to me. I dunno, I'm not sure why anyone would need to shroud their opinions in euphemism. Edited October 25, 2017 by prouster

[KirbyDome89]

 

I'd like to hire you for a job. I'll pay you $1,000 a year.

 

I bet you haven't gotten another job offer today. This is the best offer you've received, you should take it.

Not even remotely the same thing Brock....

 

So you're advocating the Twins trade away a guy they paid $1.2m per win in 2017 (!!!!!!) so they could take an oft-injured pitcher in a lopsided deal.

 

Wow.

They had a chance to trade a player from a position of depth and at peak value and they decided to pass up the best offer they received. A good number of people seem to think Dozier is suddenly more valuable or that he'll be more in demand even though his 2017 < 2016 and he has only a year left before FA. Extremely unlikely. 

 

What are they doing with Dozier? Extending him and tying up more money? FA starters are expensive. Good bullpen pieces are expensive. All the young players that got them to that one game wildcard are hitting arbitration in a couple years. This team doesn't operate on a high payroll. They had a chance to snag a young, cost controlled, front end upside pitching prospect and they didn't take it. I disagree with the logic.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Not even remotely the same thing Brock....

 

They had a chance to trade a player from a position of depth and at peak value and they decided to pass up the best offer they received. A good number of people seem to think Dozier is suddenly more valuable or that he'll be more in demand even though his 2017

 

What are they doing with Dozier? Extending him and tying up more money? FA starters are expensive. Good bullpen pieces are expensive. All the young players that got them to that one game wildcard are hitting arbitration in a couple years. This team doesn't operate on a high payroll. They had a chance to snag a young, cost controlled, front end upside pitching prospect and they didn't take it. I disagree with the logic.

Yes, they declined the Dodgers' offer and it's damned near impossible to say they made the wrong decision thus far.

[KirbyDome89]

 

Where would you put De Leon then?  A 25 year old with 25 IP of major league experience with arm problems.  Better than a 4-5 back end starter?

 

Dozier made $6M this year and$9M next year...where is the $12-15M coming from?  If we wanted to shed Dozier's salary to sign pitching that's one thing but the guy has been nearly a 5 WAR played for 4 years running for his production.........is extremely cheap.  

Yes, pedigree says better. His floor would be a back end starter. 

 

12-15M is what they're paying for that back end starter on the FA market. Quite a bit less expensive to shell out the league minimum to a young player. 

[KirbyDome89]

 

I advocated for keeping Dozier last off season and trading one of Kepler, Sano, or Buxton for a true ace. I also advocated for trading Dozier at the deadline in order to galvanize the team. The shed Kintzler instead. I see both sides on this one. But I don't really see how anyone can argue we should habe done the deal on DeLeon alone. That was so far below our asking price. He wasn't even their top pitching prospect or the arm we wanted.

Isn't it possible the Twins asking price was high? 

[KirbyDome89]

 

Yes, they declined the Dodgers' offer and it's damned near impossible to say they made the wrong decision thus far.

If JDL busts and the Twins start spending money on front ending pitching then yeah it'll look like a good move. Neither of those things have happened. Like I said, if you're calling it a win right now it's because you want to, not because it actually is. 

[KirbyDome89]

 

I am firmly in the camp that this team needs to go after front line starters and soon.  Ervin is not going to be around that much longer and that leaves us with basically Berrios and a whole lot of question marks afterwords.  I think the only real solution is to trade one or multiple young prospects for a front end rotation guy.  Might end up having to be one or multiple guys from Sano, Buxton, Dozier, Kepler, Rosario and other lesser prospects such as Gordon.  

That's a big reason why I was on board with the Dozier trade. I don't think people realize how difficult it's going to be to put together a staff that is capable of actual playoff success. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

If JDL busts and the Twins start spending money on front ending pitching then yeah it'll look like a good move. Neither of those things have happened. Like I said, if you're calling it a win right now it's because you want to, not because it actually is.

I’m calling it a win because the Twins made the postseason, Dozier posted 5 fWAR, and De Leon barely pitched 40 innnings in the minors.

 

That, by pretty much every definition of the word, is a win.

 

But, as I've said for months, the book is not closed on De Leon... but right now, it looks pretty bad. De Leon was drafted in June of 2013 as a 21 year old. He has pitched 406 innings in those five seasons.

 

Jose Berrios, drafted one season prior to De Leon and as an 18 year old (so his innings were monitored for a few years), has pitched 795 innings. One year extra, nearly double the innings pitched.

[Jham]

Isn't it possible the Twins asking price was high?

 

Of course it is. But then how can you also be arguing that Dozier should have been used to get an ace or something that substantially improves a rotation that made the playoffs? Just for now, it certainly appears the twins made the right decision by holding dozier. That's not really debateable. In fact, regardless of the outcome, retaining him was at least, not a mistake.

[USAFChief]

 

Yes, pedigree says better. His floor would be a back end starter. 

 

12-15M is what they're paying for that back end starter on the FA market. Quite a bit less expensive to shell out the league minimum to a young player. 

DeLeon's floor is not "Back end starter."  His floor is "bust," like virtually every minor leaguer.  

[Han Joelo]

I enjoyed watching competitive baseball this year. Dozier was a big part of the success. All things considered, the right move was made.

 

Dervish and Oteni, baby. They weren't coming to a 100 loss team, but now? (Misspelling intentional. I may or may not be talking about who you think I am)

[Brock Beauchamp]

DeLeon's floor is not "Back end starter." His floor is "bust," like virtually every minor leaguer.

Yep. What’s Alex Meyer’s floor again?

[KirbyDome89]

 

Of course it is. But then how can you also be arguing that Dozier should have been used to get an ace or something that substantially improves a rotation that made the playoffs? Just for now, it certainly appears the twins made the right decision by holding dozier. That's not really debateable. In fact, regardless of the outcome, retaining him was at least, not a mistake.

That rotation that "made the playoffs," got to a one game wild card and was rocked. You don't think JDL is an improvement over Gibson, Gee, Mejia, Colon, or any of the other 20 something starters they trotted out? 

 

It is debatable, and it'll be a mistake if they're overpaying in FA for more back end Hughes, Nolasco, Santiago type pitchers in order to cobble together a rotation that gives them a shot at the postseason but no real chance of advancing. 

[KirbyDome89]

 

DeLeon's floor is not "Back end starter."  His floor is "bust," like virtually every minor leaguer.  

So don't trade for prospects? Every MLB player is one injury away from ending/derailing a career so should they be taken off the list of options as well? There is assumed risk on both sides of the trade, but it seems only one is being acknowledged. 

 

Again, how else are they finding pitching they're willing to pay for? 

[KirbyDome89]

 

I’m calling it a win because the Twins made the postseason, Dozier posted 5 fWAR, and De Leon barely pitched 40 innnings in the minors.

That, by pretty much every definition of the word, is a win.

 

But, as I've said for months, the book is not closed on De Leon... but right now, it looks pretty bad. De Leon was drafted in June of 2013 as a 21 year old. He has pitched 406 innings in those five seasons.

 

Jose Berrios, drafted one season prior to De Leon and as an 18 year old (so his innings were monitored for a few years), has pitched 795 innings. One year extra, nearly double the innings pitched.

If we're having this discussion one year ago at this time it would be Berrios in question. 

 

Yeah, a one game playoff was nice, especially after last year, but unless they do something drastic to improve the pitching, the best they can do with the current group might be a one game playoff or early postseason exit. That would be a shame given how promising some of the young position players look. 

[ashbury]

His floor is "bust," like virtually every minor leaguer.

This is undoubtedly true, but it also seems to deny being able to distinguish the level of accomplishment by a certain age, which affects trade value and so forth. I doubt if you really think the floor is the same for guys like Kohl Stewart versus Aaron Slegers versus Buddy Boshers (all of whom I consider minor leaguers at this time). Maybe you have a different term than floor for the opposite of their respective ceilings, which I am thinking of as "how would he do if you threw him in against major league hitters right now?". (Buddy knows how to get certain guys out, Aaron would have a few OK games and a lot of stinkers, Kohl would get that deer-in-the-headlights look after about 5 batters.)

 

Injury is the main reason for sure-things to become busts, but (as KirbyDome89 already pointed out) the same is true for established major leaguers - we thought we knew Phil Hughes's floor for the duration of his contract extension, until suddenly we didn't.

 

It's true that 98% of prospect pitchers have a floor of "bust". You gave yourself an out when you said "virtually". But for the trade discussion we're having here, we surely are focusing on that top 2%.

 

It's just not a useful observation, IMO.

[USAFChief]

 

This is undoubtedly true, but it also denies being able to distinguish the level of accomplishment by a certain age, which affects trade value and so forth. I doubt if you really think the floor is the same for guys like Kohl Stewart versus Aaron Slegers versus Buddy Boshers (all of whom I consider minor leaguers at this time).

 

Injury is the main reason for sure-things to become busts, but (as KirbyDome89 already pointed out) the same is true for established major leaguers - we thought we knew Phil Hughes's floor for the duration of his contract extension, until suddenly we didn't.

 

It's true that 98% of prospect pitchers have a floor of "bust". But for the trade discussion we're having here, we surely are focusing on that top 2%.

 

It's just not a useful observation, IMO.

I'm not discussing the possibility of injury.  Every pitcher is an injury risk.

 

I'm talking "bust."  That's the "floor" for any minor league pitcher.  Getting hitters out in the minor leagues does not guarantee a successful major league career, even with perfect health.  

 

My remark is in response to a statement that JDL's floor is "4/5 starter."  I do not agree.  Part of why you can trade for minor leaguers in the first place is that "might never pan out" is part of the equation.  And part of why a trade of JDL for Dozier would have been, IMO, a poor gamble last winter.  You can't get one decent (not great) prospect for an established above average big league player.  You'll lose that trade a very high percentage of the time.  

 

I imagine DeLeon will get major league starts in the future, if only because every team needs pitching, and TB has invested a lot in him.  But that does not make him a "4/5 starter."  It just means he will be given chances he won't have to earn, and might not deserve.