Article: The Brian Dozier Trade That Almost Was

[h2oface]

How impressive would it have been for the FO to have dropped De Leon, and trade for Bellinger, 1 for 1, instead as a secondary add on? It would have made them look like geniuses. 

[sftwinsfan]

Looks like a good move so far.  If it really was pretty much 1:1 offer with no significant 2nd piece that's just not good enough.  By not taking the offer it strengthens their bargaining position in the future with opposing GMs by showing they're not going to be forced into making a poor move.  

[Rhino and Compass]

I wonder what the perspective on the Twins not trading Dozier would have been had the rest of the team not turned it around so dramatically this year? I think one of the factors in people desiring to see a Dozier trade was the perception that the Twins were more than 1 or 2 years off. Had I known that the Twins would even be above .500 this year, I would have said "hang on to Dozier" but I'll admit, when I thought the Twins were good for 70 or fewer wins at the beginning of the year, not getting prospect depth for Dozier was lamentable. More than anything, the Twins are lucky there wasn't a market for Dozier.

[SwainZag]

 

I wonder what the perspective on the Twins not trading Dozier would have been had the rest of the team not turned it around so dramatically this year? I think one of the factors in people desiring to see a Dozier trade was the perception that the Twins were more than 1 or 2 years off. Had I known that the Twins would even be above .500 this year, I would have said "hang on to Dozier" but I'll admit, when I thought the Twins were good for 70 or fewer wins at the beginning of the year, not getting prospect depth for Dozier was lamentable. More than anything, the Twins are lucky there wasn't a market for Dozier.

 

Even if that was the case, the Twins were not in any hurry to deal him.  It's not like he was a pending free agent after this season.  It was more based upon....was 2016 a career year outlier or Dozier was he improving as a player?  Even if the Twins would have won 70 games this year if Dozier put up the exact numbers that he did, I don't think it would have changed anything.  

[KirbyDome89]

 

I didn't say he was a bust. But whatever question marks surrounded him a year ago have only been magnified. De Leon will turn 26 next season, hasn't even thrown 115 innings in a season, hasn't had a shred of success at the major-league level. 

 

If the Twins had traded Dozier for him straight-up, or with minimal added pieces (as plenty of people around here felt they should have), and things had played out in a similar fashion with both players, it would look TERRIBLE for the Twins and their new regime right now. They'd be getting skewered. This isn't even debatable. 

You seemed pretty comfortable writing him off due to injuries, Idk how to take that other than he's a bust to this point.

 

Agreed, they would've taken heat. I think we can also agree that this FO isn't making decisions based on fan/media approval ratings (they shouldn't be.) I understand it's an unpopular opinion but honestly Idk how this can be a "win." Dozier can walk after next season. If the idea is to trade him, his market was lukewarm after a career year last season, and I don't see the Twins suddenly getting an offer that'll blow them away this offseason coming off a lesser season and with one less year of control. 

 

They NEED pitching. Not just back end rotation pieces signed in FA. Those guys might get them to a one game wild card or even the ALDS but they aren't winning playoff series with rotations like that. We've watched the Twins waste MVP and Cy Young talent with subpar rosters. I don't want to see a promising young core exit the playoffs early or fail to make them altogether, because the pitching staff is a disaster. They had a moveable piece at a position of depth and they had a chance to bring in a pitcher with front end rotation potential. I get that I'm in the minority here, but unless they're giving up prospects (which they'll need to keep unless they're planning on a KC like contention window) they aren't going to acquire those types of pitchers, and certainly not for that many years of control. 

 

Is it a "win," in the short term? Yes, they made the one game wild card and Dozier was a big part of that but I'm not putting a ton of stock in that. A short playoff appearance this season was a pleasant/unexpected surprise but it shouldn't mask just how uphill the climb to building a playoff caliber rotation is. I feel like they missed out on a chance to do that. 

[KirbyDome89]

 

If he was in the Twins org right now, people would be screaming bloody murder, and rightly so. All pitching prospects are questions marks. Pitching prospects who have barely crossed a half season of MLB innings at age 25, even moreso.

How else are they going to acquire front end starters or pitchers who at least have that potential? 

 

Yes, it's a risk but the Twins aren't paying for that pitching in FA. They don't have anybody right now that projects as a strong front end starter, and they have 0 history of developing any pitcher like that. 

[KirbyDome89]

 

It's a "win" because the Twins didn't sell Dozier for 60 cents on the dollar. They could still trade Dozier (or a different MI) this year and get a better offer. If they had moved Dozier, they (likely) couldn't have.

 

I'd also point out that the Yankees ace couldn't make it out of the first inning. Pitching is rough all around. Kyle Gibson would have been arguably the Angels best pitcher last year. So while the back of the rotation isn't set and the front doesn't have a true ace, we do have pieces in place and the ability to get something in free agency as well (or through a trade). 

They can? Who is making that offer? Why is he suddenly more valuable coming off a lesser season and with only one year of control instead of two? 

 

What pieces? They have the real Ervin (not the April-May .98 ERA Ervin) and Berrios. After that it's nothing but question marks, inconsistency, and AAAA pitching. That isn't a staff anywhere near actual playoff contention. 

[KirbyDome89]

 

Everyone here agrees the Team need to add high-quality pitching talent.

 

I found it interesting that you railed at commenters and their SSS myopia regarding JDL, and yet in an earlier comment you attach meaning to how our "ace" struggled in one particular game. Are you watching the playoffs and counting the number of times a highly reputable starter has been knocked around early in games?

 

People aren't breathing a sigh of relief because JDL performed poorly in 41 innings. They're happy we laid off one guy whose history suggests he's an injury risk. Our pro scouts made a smart recommendation to their bosses in this case.

Ervin has compiled years of stats to tell you he isn't an ace pitcher. That isn't myopia. He happens to be the best option in a terrible rotation. That doesn't make him an elite pitcher. 

 

That is the same group of scouts responsible for all the pitching on the field and drafted the past 5 seasons. I honestly hope the new FO wasn't/isn't leaning hard on them for pitching recommendations...

[drjim]

You seemed pretty comfortable writing him off due to injuries, Idk how to take that other than he's a bust to this point.

 

Agreed, they would've taken heat. I think we can also agree that this FO isn't making decisions based on fan/media approval ratings (they shouldn't be.) I understand it's an unpopular opinion but honestly Idk how this can be a "win." Dozier can walk after next season. If the idea is to trade him, his market was lukewarm after a career year last season, and I don't see the Twins suddenly getting an offer that'll blow them away this offseason coming off a lesser season and with one less year of control.

 

They NEED pitching. Not just back end rotation pieces signed in FA. Those guys might get them to a one game wild card or even the ALDS but they aren't winning playoff series with rotations like that. We've watched the Twins waste MVP and Cy Young talent with subpar rosters. I don't want to see a promising young core exit the playoffs early or fail to make them altogether, because the pitching staff is a disaster. They had a moveable piece at a position of depth and they had a chance to bring in a pitcher with front end rotation potential. I get that I'm in the minority here, but unless they're giving up prospects (which they'll need to keep unless they're planning on a KC like contention window) they aren't going to acquire those types of pitchers, and certainly not for that many years of control.

 

Is it a "win," in the short term? Yes, they made the one game wild card and Dozier was a big part of that but I'm not putting a ton of stock in that. A short playoff appearance this season was a pleasant/unexpected surprise but it shouldn't mask just how uphill the climb to building a playoff caliber rotation is. I feel like they missed out on a chance to do that.

Not sure how trading Dozier for another (likely) backend starter would have helped this situation.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

How else are they going to acquire front end starters or pitchers who at least have that potential? 

 

Yes, it's a risk but the Twins aren't paying for that pitching in FA. They don't have anybody right now that projects as a strong front end starter, and they have 0 history of developing any pitcher like that. 

 

You acquire multiple players. That risk is party of why you rarely see 1 for 1 deals of major league talent for minor league talent.

 

Trading Dozier was the right answer last offseason. Trading Dozier straight up for De Leon was not. I'm glad Falvine stuck to their guns on that one.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

How else are they going to acquire front end starters or pitchers who at least have that potential? 

 

Yes, it's a risk but the Twins aren't paying for that pitching in FA. They don't have anybody right now that projects as a strong front end starter, and they have 0 history of developing any pitcher like that. 

So you give up a borderline elite player for a hope and a prayer?

 

There are more reliable pitching prospects out there, go find one of those.

 

It's not as if the Twins were getting De Leon for fifty cents on the dollar. They were asked to pay a premium price and it appears they made the right decision.

[Mike Sixel]

 

So you give up a borderline elite player for a hope and a prayer?

 

There are more reliable pitching prospects out there, go find one of those.

 

It's not as if the Twins were getting De Leon for fifty cents on the dollar. They were asked to pay a premium price and it appears they made the right decision.

 

They've been trying that route for 30 years.....it worked twice.

 

Jack Morris was the highest paid pitcher when the Twins signed him, how'd that work out?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

They've been trying that route for 30 years.....it worked twice.

 

Jack Morris was the highest paid pitcher when the Twins signed him, how'd that work out?

As I've said what seems to be a thousand times, every pitching prospect is a risk. Some are so risky that you just stay away and it appears De Leon is one of those guys, particularly if you have to give up one of the best second basemen in the game to get him.

 

I'm not sure if you're trying to argue the Twins should have agreed to the De Leon deal here... but in hindsight (though for reasons many of us pointed out), it was the correct non-move and that shouldn't even be up for discussion. The guy didn't even cross 50 innings this season.

 

Without Dozier, the Twins likely finish under .500 on the season. And given how De Leon would have contributed absolutely nothing, I'll take that 85 win season every time, thanks.

[Mike Sixel]

 

As I've said what seems to be a thousand times, every pitching prospect is a risk. Some are so risky that you just stay away and it appears De Leon is one of those guys, particularly if you have to give up one of the best second basemen in the game to get him.

 

I'm not sure if you're trying to argue the Twins should have agreed to the De Leon deal here... but in hindsight (though for reasons many of us pointed out), it was the correct non-move and that shouldn't even be up for discussion. The guy didn't even cross 50 innings this season.

 

Without Dozier, the Twins likely finish under .500 on the season. And given how De Leon would have contributed absolutely nothing, I'll take that 85 win season every time, thanks.

 

I'm arguing that those saying the Twins can win in this window by getting lucky and identifying the "next Arrieta" are fooling themselves. The Twins have tried to go cheap and find diamonds in the rough ever since McPhail left. 

 

If they won't spend money and/or trade big time prospects, this isn't happening w/o significant luck.

Edited October 23, 2017 by Mike Sixel

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I'm arguing that those saying the Twins can win in this window by getting lucky and identifying the "next Arrieta" are fooling themselves. The Twins have tried to go cheap and find diamonds in the rough ever since McPhail left. 

 

If they won't spend money and/or trade big time prospects, this isn't happening w/o significant luck.

You always try to find the next Arrieta but that doesn't impact you acquiring more reliable, above-average players. Searching for the next Arrieta is a side job, one every GM should spend a little time working on every offseason.

[drjim]

 

I'm arguing that those saying the Twins can win in this window by getting lucky and identifying the "next Arrieta" are fooling themselves. The Twins have tried to go cheap and find diamonds in the rough ever since McPhail left. 

 

If they won't spend money and/or trade big time prospects, this isn't happening w/o significant luck.

 

Also not happening by making a bad trade.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Also not happening by making a bad trade.

 

Agreed, that has nothing to do with my post though.

[drjim]

 

Agreed, that has nothing to do with my post though.

 

It doesn't? It was in a thread re-visiting the Dozier trade in the context of discussing that trade, right? How else should that comment be interpreted?

 

I understand the point you are making, but to constantly hammer the same generalities with the same points over and over again when specific moves are being discussed that don't especially apply to those points, or, more accurately, show that the point being pushed is not as simple to execute as it is to complain about. I don't see that as all that productive (and it is perhaps even something else). 

 

I like the theoretical and strategic and big picture as much as anyone, but those moves also have to happen in the real world opportunities that actually present themselves, in real trade and free agent markets, with actual players that are available.

[Mike Sixel]

 

It doesn't? It was in a thread re-visiting the Dozier trade in the context of discussing that trade, right? How else should that comment be interpreted?

 

I understand the point you are making, but to constantly hammer the same generalities with the same points over and over again when specific moves are being discussed that don't especially apply to those points, or, more accurately, show that the point being pushed is not as simple to execute as it is to complain about. I don't see that as all that productive (and it is perhaps even something else). 

 

I like the theoretical and strategic and big picture as much as anyone, but those moves also have to happen in the real world opportunities that actually present themselves, in real trade and free agent markets, with actual players that are available.

 

I already posted in this thread it looks like a good non-trade. Other people were posting that all the Twins had to do was "find the next Arrieta" and they'd be good. I was pointing out that was harder than people seem to think. 

[ahart10]

In the SSS of this season it would have been a horrible trade. Lots of time left to see if DeLeon turns out yet. Maybe Dozier will get hurt next year, knock on wood, and we’ll wish the Twins would’ve gotten something out of him while they could.

[flpmagikat]

 

In the SSS of this season it would have been a horrible trade. Lots of time left to see if DeLeon turns out yet. Maybe Dozier will get hurt next year, knock on wood, and we’ll wish the Twins would’ve gotten something out of him while they could.

 

Well, they got another "borderline" elite year from him, and (borderline?) made the playoffs, so that was cool.

[ALessKosherScott]

Can we take this thread to 100 pages?

[KirbyDome89]

 

So you give up a borderline elite player for a hope and a prayer?

 

There are more reliable pitching prospects out there, go find one of those.

 

It's not as if the Twins were getting De Leon for fifty cents on the dollar. They were asked to pay a premium price and it appears they made the right decision.

And if that borderline elite player decides to walk?....

 

They tried finding better prospects, JDL was the best offer they received.

 

If they aren't interested in paying value for high end prospects then cross off the trade market as an option for bringing in real pitching help.

[KirbyDome89]

 

Not sure how trading Dozier for another (likely) backend starter would have helped this situation.

I wouldn't put him in the 4-5 range right now but for the sake of argument we'll say he is. 

 

That's 12-15 million per year they just saved. Throw that money and more at a front end starter. Bring in some actual relief arms. 

 

Bringing in young, cost controlled pitching helps in more than more way. 

[KirbyDome89]

 

You acquire multiple players. That risk is party of why you rarely see 1 for 1 deals of major league talent for minor league talent.

 

Trading Dozier was the right answer last offseason. Trading Dozier straight up for De Leon was not. I'm glad Falvine stuck to their guns on that one.

quality > quantity 

 

Bringing in multiple prospects of a lesser caliber as organizational filler does nothing for this team right now.

[SwainZag]

 

I wouldn't put him in the 4-5 range right now but for the sake of argument we'll say he is. 

 

That's 12-15 million per year they just saved. Throw that money and more at a front end starter. Bring in some actual relief arms. 

 

Bringing in young, cost controlled pitching helps in more than more way. 

 

Where would you put De Leon then?  A 25 year old with 25 IP of major league experience with arm problems.  Better than a 4-5 back end starter?

 

Dozier made $6M this year and$9M next year...where is the $12-15M coming from?  If we wanted to shed Dozier's salary to sign pitching that's one thing but the guy has been nearly a 5 WAR played for 4 years running for his production.........is extremely cheap.  

[Jham]

quality > quantity

 

Bringing in multiple prospects of a lesser caliber as organizational filler does nothing for this team right now.

I advocated for keeping Dozier last off season and trading one of Kepler, Sano, or Buxton for a true ace. I also advocated for trading Dozier at the deadline in order to galvanize the team. The shed Kintzler instead. I see both sides on this one. But I don't really see how anyone can argue we should habe done the deal on DeLeon alone. That was so far below our asking price. He wasn't even their top pitching prospect or the arm we wanted.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

And if that borderline elite player decides to walk?....

 

They tried finding better prospects, JDL was the best offer they received.

 

If they aren't interested in paying value for high end prospects then cross off the trade market as an option for bringing in real pitching help.

I'd like to hire you for a job. I'll pay you $1,000 a year.

 

I bet you haven't gotten another job offer today. This is the best offer you've received, you should take it.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I wouldn't put him in the 4-5 range right now but for the sake of argument we'll say he is. 

 

That's 12-15 million per year they just saved. Throw that money and more at a front end starter. Bring in some actual relief arms. 

 

Bringing in young, cost controlled pitching helps in more than more way. 

So you're advocating the Twins trade away a guy they paid $1.2m per win in 2017 (!!!!!!) so they could take an oft-injured pitcher in a lopsided deal.

 

Wow.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Heh, I did a search on some of my De Leon posts from last offseason. Here are a few:

"I think De Leon's performance in 2017 very much matters, as he's entering his age 24 season and will likely spend most or all of 2017 on an MLB roster.

To put it differently, does Jose Berrios' 2017 matter? Of course it does, and Berrios is a full two years younger than De Leon. If either player stumbles badly in 2017, does it mean their career is over? No, definitely not... But if a 24 year old pitching prospect posts 100+ really bad innings, that prospect's future is rightly called into question.

As for Dozier, his 2017 performance isn't about drawing fans (well, probably not, anyway), it's about establishing future value. Another 5 WAR season out of Dozier and we'll no longer be squabbling whether he's the 7th or 9th best second baseman in the game, we'll be arguing whether he's the 2nd or 3rd best second baseman in the game.

The only knock on Dozier right now is that he's coming off a career year. If he storms out out of the gate in 2017, that's no longer in question and no one will be able to deny he's one of the best middle infielders in all of baseball.

And that means Dozier is worth a hell of a lot, even if he's down to 1.5 years of controlled service time."

 

 

"That's why I added "Final judgment on De Leon will take time." at the end of the statement.

But a bad start to his career at 24 years old drops his stock and it drops it a lot. De Leon is somewhat old-ish for a top 50 pitching prospect graduating to MLB.

http://www.baseballa...hjziGkwLKoQD.97

On BA's preseason prospect list from last season, only three prospects in the top 50 were 24 years or older. Seven in the top 100 were 24 years or older.

Plenty of people have questions about Berrios because he pitched 55-ish bad innings as a 22 year old."

 

 

"One thing I think we all can (or at least should) agree on:

This is the first test of Falvey and Levine. The trade, for good or bad, did not happen. Now we get to see if they were right or wrong.

- If Dozier is a 5 WAR player in 2017 (or on his way at the break), Falvey was right.

- If De Leon is a negative WAR player in 2017 or back in the minors, Falvey was (likely) right. Final judgment on De Leon will take time.

- If Dozier is a .700 OPS player in 2017 (or on his way at the break), Falvey was wrong.

- If De Leon is a 4 WAR player in 2017, Falvey was wrong.

Of course, there are combinations that muddy the situation (a good/good or bad/bad outcome) but overall, the scouting and decision-making acumen of Falvey and Levine should make themselves apparent in relatively short order. That will not definitively declare whether they're awesome or terrible at their jobs but they'll be the first real indications of what to expect in coming years."