Article: Diving Into The Offseason: A Sano Extension?

[snap4birds]

I thought it would be interesting to see where Sano would rank at your proposed salaries, so I looked up this salary info on spotrac.  Since 2022 would be the 1st possible year for Sano on a FA contract, I looked at that year & your projected salary of 16 million.  There will be 63 players making 16 million or more in 2018.  There are 12 players signed to contracts for 16 million or more in 2022 at this point.  If he were to sign this contract, it seems like he'd be somewhere around 70th to 80th in 2022 in the salary rankings.  

Granted there is a lot of value in locking in that much guaranteed salary this far away (the rest of us can only dream....).  And he might be locking in some extra money in those arb years.  But I'm thinking Sano wouldn't want to restrict himself to this degree.  Most professional athletes are pretty confident in their abilities.

(There are 10 contracts for 20 million or more in 2022, and 4 of 25 million or more.  2022 is the last year spotrac has data for....)

[Mike Sixel]

 

I thought it would be interesting to see where Sano would rank at your proposed salaries, so I looked up this salary info on spotrac.  Since 2022 would be the 1st possible year for Sano on a FA contract, I looked at that year & your projected salary of 16 million.  There will be 63 players making 16 million or more in 2018.  There are 12 players signed to contracts for 16 million or more in 2022 at this point.  If he were to sign this contract, it seems like he'd be somewhere around 70th to 80th in 2022 in the salary rankings.  

Granted there is a lot of value in locking in that much guaranteed salary this far away (the rest of us can only dream....).  And he might be locking in some extra money in those arb years.  But I'm thinking Sano wouldn't want to restrict himself to this degree.  Most professional athletes are pretty confident in their abilities.

(There are 10 contracts for 20 million or more in 2022, and 4 of 25 million or more.  2022 is the last year spotrac has data for....)

 

cool stuff! thanks for doing that.

[Deduno Abides]

I’m not aware of players with Sano’s “shape” having long careers. Players who come to mind are Pablo Sandoval and Kent Hrbek. I have no idea if it’s work ethic, diet or bad luck, but he has battled weight issues the last two years, even after reporting to camp in good shape in 2017, and suffered from pulls, strains and stress fractures that are commonly related to either bad fitness or trying do things that your body doesn’t tolerate. He’s on a career path that could fizzle out around when he turns 30.

 

Right now, it seems at least as likely that he turns into Chris Carter as it does that he turns into Giancarlo Stanton. It will be OK to wait (pun partially intended).

[Deduno Abides]

The failure of the RF experiment was large part on Sano, that always struck me as obvious. And I agree that it should have served more of a red flag at the time, but it is always easier to blame management and defend the star. (Which isn't to say moving him to RF was a good idea, but a committed player would have made it much less a fiasco).

 

Have to agree with this, even though it was a bizarre move. Aaron Judge shows that being a big guy isn’t a great excuse for being a poor outfielder.

[Deduno Abides]

I would support signing Sano through two years of free agency. I'm not optimistic it will happen this offseason. Sano's injury could make the spread between asking price and the Twins offer too big to overcome. I hope they at least discuss the possibility.

 

I think Seth's numbers are a little light but not unreasonable. Here is a look at the contracts of some players who have gone year to year. MLB Trade Rumors predicted 2018 arbitration values and 2017 actual contracts are as follows:

 

Kris Bryant (2018, year 1) $8M

Anthony Rendon (2017 actual, yr 1) $5.8M; (2018, yr 2) $11.8M

Manny Machado (2017 actual, yr 2) $11.5M; (2018, yr 3) $17.3M

 

Sano can bet on himself and pull these types of salaries in his arbitration years. Sano's problem is he hasn't performed like any of the listed players to this point. Not even close. Each of these players had at least one 6.0 WAR season before entering their arbitration years.

 

Give Sano a $4M bonus this year. I'd offer him $5/$10/$15 for his arb years and $20/$25 for two years of free agency, for a total of $80M for six years. This contract is probably 80-85% of what he could make going year to year, at maximum potential. That's a lot of money for a player who has yet to have a 3.0 WAR year and looking at surgery.

 

Miguel Sano is 24-1/2 and has 5.6 career fWAR. By the time Machado, Rendon and Bryant were that age, each of them had had single seasons with more fWAR. They are all well-rounded players. Sano doesn’t compare at all to them.

[Rosterman]

There is quite a big picture outlook the Twins front office has to look at. Who will play where in 2018. Who is around and playing where in 2019 and 2020. Who is in the pipeline to replace (say our outfielders, for sure). What players can offer position change.

 

In Sano's case, will he be the second coming of David Ortiz, someone who can play DH mostly for the next 14 years at whatever is considered a good solid average major league salary (probably $20-25 million as we get into his thirties). Is that worth it. Will he sustain? Can you go for a 10-year deal?

 

Is the Twins DH of the near future a Dozier or Mauer? Who plays first in the longer runoo

The front office should have a pretty giid idea of how the roster will shake out for the next three seasons right now, and a solid idea of who they hope to retain up to five years from now.

 

 

[EddieMatthews]

 

What leads you to think this, if I may ask?

No specific info, just IMHO.  He's Dominican, large contingent of his people in NYC, and he has spent time there in the off-season.  It has nothing to do with the current 3B situation for the Yanks, where they play Headley (age 33) and Frazier (age 31) and get mediocre results there.  Plus, what up and coming star doesn't want to play in Yankee Stadium?

[Vanimal46]

Comparing Sano to Pablo Sandoval is a lazy, false narrative. Miguel Sano is a 6'4" man built like a tree. Pablo Sandoval is a 5'11" slap hitter. Just stop with this. 

Edited October 20, 2017 by Vanimal46

[laloesch]

 

Comparing Sano to Pablo Sandoval is a lazy, false narrative. Miguel Sano is a 6'4" man built like a tree. Pablo Sandoval is a 5'11" slap hitter. Just stop with this. 

 

lol, Pablo Sandoval is not a slap hitter, talk about false narrative.

[Mike Sixel]

 

lol, Pablo Sandoval is not a slap hitter, talk about false narrative.

 

It's almost like the main point of being 5 inches shorter wasn't even in the post......*

 

*note, I have no idea if that is an exaggeration or not, but it was the actual point.

[laloesch]

 

It's almost like the main point of being 5 inches shorter wasn't even in the post......*

 

*note, I have no idea if that is an exaggeration or not, but it was the actual point.

 

Come on Mike.... he said "Pablo Sandoval is a 5'11" slap hitter" creating the impression that he's a Jason Tyner, Jason Bartlett or Nick Punto type hitter / build.  Sandoval is NOT a slap hitter toothpick.  He's had health issues the last couple of seasons but both (Sano and Sandoval) have similar builds with the exception of their  height difference.  And yes Sandoval is heavier then he should be.  

Edited October 20, 2017 by laloesch

[caninatl04]

 

Miguel Sano is 24-1/2 and has 5.6 career fWAR. By the time Machado, Rendon and Bryant were that age, each of them had had single seasons with more fWAR. They are all well-rounded players. Sano doesn’t compare at all to them.

But isn't the problem that Sano is too "well-rounded"?

[Deduno Abides]

Comparing Sano to Pablo Sandoval is a lazy, false narrative. Miguel Sano is a 6'4" man built like a tree. Pablo Sandoval is a 5'11" slap hitter. Just stop with this.

 

You’re right, the comparison may be unfair. . . to Sandoval, who by completion of his age 25 season had already had two single seasons with almost as much fWAR as Sano has had in his career and had already won a World Series ring, although he didn’t play much in the playoffs that year because of his weight. His inability to maintain fitness has greatly damaged his career, although not before someone woefully misjudged his ability to play with mediocre fitness and gave him an almost nine figure contract.

 

On the path Sano is going, he should hope to do as well as Sandoval.

 

Btw, “slap hitter” Sandoval hit 25 HR’s as a rookie, while playing in Pac Bell Field, the hardest place to hit HRs.

[drjim]

The more I think about, the less it makes sense to lock up Sano. It is not clear he'll bring anything to the table on the defensive side in 4 years, and his style really is closer than we might want to admit to being unplayable. I like to think he'll move his k and bb rates in the right direction, but he could easily go the other way and be an albatross. Not sure how much I'd gamble on that equation. And he is not going to give a discount.

 

It doesn't kill a team to capture value through his arb years and then let him walk.

[Doomtints]

Use the cash to fix the pitching before extending anybody who won't be a free agent until 2019+.

[drjim]

Use the cash to fix the pitching before extending anybody who won't be a free agent until 2019+.

These actions can be complementary rather than mutually exclusive.

[Doomtints]

 

These actions can be complementary rather than mutually exclusive.

 

Of course they can do both. Do the other one first.

[SwainZag]

Lock him up.  The risks outweigh the rewards by going year to year.  All it would take 1 year in the next 3 for Sano to harness his potential and put up 50 HR, 130 RBI with a .380 OBP and OPS of .900 for his price to go up dramatically.  Health will always be a concern, but we should all know players of his talent don't come along very often.

[laloesch]

Lock him up.  The risks outweigh the rewards by going year to year.  All it would take 1 year in the next 3 for Sano to harness his potential and put up 50 HR, 130 RBI with a .380 OBP and OPS of .900 for his price to go up dramatically.  Health will always be a concern, but we should all know players of his talent don't come along very often.

Assuming he's willing to sign and for a reasonable amount.

[Ncgo4]

Extend a rich contract to a 290 lb, 25 year old with a bad leg coming off very serious surgery? Yeah, that would be real, real smart. Buxton, Rosario, Berrios? Absolutely! Sano, not a chance in heck!