Article: Diving Into The Offseason: A Buxton Extension?

[Seth Stohs]

 

sure, "enough" money will get anyone signed.

 

Trout signed for $24MM per year, and will be a FA when he's 29.

 

So, I think Buxton would cost $20MM per year, maybe as little as $17MM per year. Just over 100MM total, or more like 120MM, I'd think.

 

Trout signed a year later and didn't have the $1 million year in there... but I don't disagree... I might be a little light, maybe more in the first free agency year or two. But that's the purpose of signing a deal this year as opposed to next year or later. The numbers will keep getting bigger. I shouldn't have done the comparisons to Trout and Harper maybe, but I wanted to make sure people knew that it needs to be below that. I also have him higher than all the other guys I compared him to. 

 

I think it'd be hard to turn down $76 million guaranteed. And he'd still be a free agent at 30 and have time to get another big contract. 

[Mike Sixel]

I think being a FA a year later than Trout, and MLB inflation, means it has to be closer to 100MM, but we are all guessing at this point.

[gunnarthor]

I think Buxton would get a lot more than 100m. He's much closer to Trout's contract than Upton's, which is 7 years old already and he signed it coming off a down year.

 

Buxton was a 5 WAR player this year and everyone thinks this will be his worst year for some time. He's going to be a FA at 28. He has no incentive to give away his age 28-30 years for essentially a promise of 24m through his arbitration years - which are also set too low by probably 10m.   When he gets to FA, he's going to be one of the 10 highest paid players in baseball. And it probably won't be by the Pohlads.

[Vanimal46]

Buxton is pretty much in the driver's seat for any contract negotiation. He's already had a share of "life changing" money, and should be in a position to gamble on himself if he chooses to do so. 

 

It's in the Twins' best interest to lock him up ASAP before next year's FA class breaks the salary scale as we know it. I just don't know if the team really had an opportunity to offer a lengthy contract extension buying out FA years. 

[Loosey]

Buxton hasn't proven to be a $100M player yet.  The last few months he was there, but hasn't done it for a season or 2 yet.  I think the Twins could get him to sign something in that $75M-$100M range.  That's life changing money for someone who is already a millionaire.  It gives him and his family stability and makes him not have to worry about getting to that next milestone of FA.  

 

Rip up his deal.  Give him a bump this year to $3M.  Then buy out his Arb Years and 3 years of FA.  I'd suggest:

 

2018  $3m   - Pre-Arb

2019  $6m   - Arb 1

2020  $10m - Arb 2

2021  $12m - Arb 3

2022  $17m - FA 1

2023  $18m - FA 2

2024  $19m - FA 3

Total: $85m

[Vanimal46]

 

Buxton hasn't proven to be a $100M player yet.  The last few months he was there, but hasn't done it for a season or 2 yet.  I think the Twins could get him to sign something in that $75M-$100M range.  That's life changing money for someone who is already a millionaire.  It gives him and his family stability and makes him not have to worry about getting to that next milestone of FA.  

 

Rip up his deal.  Give him a bump this year to $3M.  Then buy out his Arb Years and 3 years of FA.  I'd suggest:

 

2018  $3m   - Pre-Arb

2019  $6m   - Arb 1

2020  $10m - Arb 2

2021  $12m - Arb 3

2022  $17m - FA 1

2023  $18m - FA 2

2024  $19m - FA 3

Total: $85m

 

You think Buxton would sign for less than half of what Harper and Machado are projected to get next off-season during his FA years?

[Loosey]

 

You think Buxton would sign for less than half of what Harper and Machado are projected to get next off-season during his FA years?

Those guys have years of performing like all-stars under their belts.  Buxton so far has 3 months.  Giving him $85M for 3 months of all-star like performance fair in my opinion.  Or if he is confident in his abilities he will wait a few years and sign for much more.  But $85M is guaranteed the day the pen touches paper.  A much larger deal isn't guaranteed until he can sustain his 3 months of great play for a year or two.  An injury or poor play and both deals disappear.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

and yet, almost none of hte superstars are signing such deals the last two years....

 

Agreed, but right now, Buxton isn't a superstar. He may be willing to roll the dice on himself, and that's fine, but that cost certainty has an advantage too.

 

I'm not going to pretend to know what is and isn't reasonable, but those numbers are probably close.

[gunnarthor]

 

Those guys have years of performing like all-stars under their belts.  Buxton so far has 3 months.  Giving him $85M for 3 months of all-star like performance fair in my opinion.  Or if he is confident in his abilities he will wait a few years and sign for much more.  But $85M is guaranteed the day the pen touches paper.  A much larger deal isn't guaranteed until he can sustain his 3 months of great play for a year or two.  An injury or poor play and both deals disappear.

No. He just came off a 5 WAR season as his agent knows. The reason the Twins want to extend him is because they know (and his agent knows they know) that Buxton is an elite player. 

 

Buxton is going to get paid a lot the next few years through arbitration. The numbers you suggest are probably low but even if they were 100% correct, he'll get that money regardless of whether he signs an extension now. The only way he doesn't get that money is if he suffers a career ending injury. If not, he's set. He's already made 6m in a signing bonus and over a million in salary. Plus he has endorsement contracts. Hopefully he's got a smart business guy watching his funds. There should be no reason for him to give up three years of free agency for 54m, as you suggest. Machado and Harper are going to break baseball's salary structure next offseason and Buxton is going to be one of the biggest beneficiaries of that. 

[Mr. Brooks]

7 years, $116 million is the magic number that both sides can stomach, IMO.

[drjim]

 

7 years, $116 million is the magic number that both sides can stomach, IMO.

 

Sounds about right to me.

[Mike Sixel]

IMO, and we are all guessing......

 

Buxton was 15th in fWAR in the 2nd half of the year. If he did that all year, he'd be in the top 20 among hitters/fielders. I can't see him thinking anything short of "top 5-10 player in all of baseball" money as a FA. Like, $30-40MM per year money. The OP would have him give up at least $38MM in pay those 3 FA years, in exchange for a bit more earlier (is it more?), and more certainty. That's a lot of money to give up, imo.

 

I think the 116MM number is more correct, but possibly still light if he aggressively values his probabilities and the FA market. I think that number might get it done, though.

[beckmt]

I was guessing $100 million, but you might be right on the $116 - $120.  Prices are going up for the superstars.

Pohlad's have spent a lot of money before for a face of the franchise player.  Buxton could will be it.  Go for it.

 

[beckmt]

Don't think you can lock up the entire core, you still need pitching.  I would role the dice on the middle infielders until you get to Lewis and maybe Javier.  You have a lot in that pipeline and pitching will be expensive.

[drjim]

 

Don't think you can lock up the entire core, you still need pitching.  I would role the dice on the middle infielders until you get to Lewis and maybe Javier.  You have a lot in that pipeline and pitching will be expensive.

 

If they merit it, they can probably lock everyone up other than Sano and still be in an OK financial position.

 

I would go with Buxton and Berrios this offseason, and extend Dozier (if it is no more than 3 additional years), then wait another year for Polanco/Kepler/Rosario. I just don't see the Twins and Sano coming together for a variety of reasons.

[beckmt]

 

If they merit it, they can probably lock everyone up other than Sano and still be in an OK financial position.

 

I would go with Buxton and Berrios this offseason, and extend Dozier (if it is no more than 3 additional years), then wait another year for Polanco/Kepler/Rosario. I just don't see the Twins and Sano coming together for a variety of reasons.

Do not mind Berrios, would kick the tires on Sano.  If you cannot lock up Sano, he would be a piece for trading for an ace down the road.

Dozier is going to be looking for 4-5 years minimum, just do not want this to happen here. 

[drjim]

Do not mind Berrios, would kick the tires on Sano. If you cannot lock up Sano, he would be a piece for trading for an ace down the road.

Dozier is going to be looking for 4-5 years minimum, just do not want this to happen here.

If Dozier requires that, Twins can let him walk.

 

I'd certainly kick the tires on Sano, but I'm skeptical he would bite.

[Mike Sixel]

Why would Dozier settle for less than 4 years, 80MM-100MM?

[beckmt]

 

Why would Dozier settle for less than 4 years, 80MM-100MM?

Agree.

[drjim]

 

Why would Dozier settle for less than 4 years, 80MM-100MM?

 

Because it is not clear he can get that many more years in the open market. He might want to stay with the Twins. And he might want to lock up a year before free agency.

 

I don't think the Twins will get a discount on AAV, but might get the right amount of years.

[drjim]

And again, if he says to no 3 years, let him walk. Twins can pivot on that, Gordon should be ready to roll opening day in 2019.

[Doomtints]

Way too early to do this for a guy who doesn't hit free agency until 2022 and who might just kill himself out there long before then.

 

Use the money to fix the pitching. When that's done, then talk about spending money on things that are superfluous.  

[Dman]

If I am Buxton I would not give up three FA years for an extension.  If I wanted to play that game I would give up one year tops.  If giving up one year of FA gave me some financial security I would do it but I would want to reach FA as far under 30 years old as possible. That way you have the leverage of more prime years when going for that big contract.

 

It is a gamble for both sides but if the Twins want any kind of potential discount or even the hope of getting something done they probably have to do it this year. 

 

A lot of it depends on how Buxton and his agent view his future.  Is 100 Mil career earnings enough money that you don't care what happens for the next contract? or do you want to maximize your potential earnings through your baseball career taking on the risk of injury, performance, etc?  Hard to say what path he would choose.

[Loosey]

The more I think about this, I might not do an extension.  If the Twins become good again, I mean perennial playoff team for the next 3-4 years and a WS appearance and deep playoff runs, the amount of money that will be rolling into the team should be ridiculous. Winning solves a lot of problems.   

 

If those happen the team should have enough funds to pay for what they need.  If they don't make deep playoff runs and get a WS appearance with Buxton, Sano and Berrios core what will they be paying for then?  Great players on an OK team?  If that core doesn't get the team to where we fans want it maybe they don't need to spend $300M on them. 

Edited October 18, 2017 by Loosey