Go Bold: Trade for Gerrit Cole

[Mr. Brooks]

A couple of points:

1. Kepler may have had a higher bWAR than Rosario this year, but if you took ALL the stats to all the MLB GMs and said one of these guys is playing in your OF next year, 30 out of 30 would select Rosario's .836 OPS over Kepler's .737 OPS.

2. Chris Archer is signed to a very team friendly contract for 4 more years. And they aren't even guaranteed! The last two years are team options, protecting you from paying full salary to a guy who ruined his arm. I could see the Angels trading Mike Trout before I could see the Rays trading Chris Archer, at least for a couple more years.

You have no way of knowing how many GM's would take which player.

You said which is playing in your OF, not at DH, in which case, defense matters.

[beckmt]

All this looks good, but I would probably wait and see since doubt Pittsburg would do a prospects deal unless they felt it was an overpay.  Midseason next year, if the Pirates are not proforming, you should be able to get Cole for less and have a better idea of what you have. 

Would rather pay for Darvish(ace) and not give up the prospects or major league talent.

[Mill1634]

Please no. He is an overhyped pitcher who is not all that good. Get Archer if you're going to get someone

[Mike Sixel]

 

A couple of points:

1. Kepler may have had a higher bWAR than Rosario this year, but if you took ALL the stats to all the MLB GMs and said one of these guys is playing in your OF next year, 30 out of 30 would select Rosario's .836 OPS over Kepler's .737 OPS.

2. Chris Archer is signed to a very team friendly contract for 4 more years. And they aren't even guaranteed! The last two years are team options, protecting you from paying full salary to a guy who ruined his arm. I could see the Angels trading Mike Trout before I could see the Rays trading Chris Archer, at least for a couple more years.

 

Trades aren't for 1 year, though. I also find it odd you said "take all the stats", then ignored defense and base running completely, and used 1 stat. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

I personally am going to be very skeptical of any stat that said Kepler was a better player than Rosario this year. Rosario definitely made a few bone headed plays, but it's not like Kepler was perfect in that area. Rosario also has better range and a better bat.

[gunnarthor]

 

But the one who "hasn't figured it out", is still producing more bWAR than the guy who is "already a force", which is my point.

Yes, Rosario's improvement on offense is encouraging, but defense and baserunning count too, and Rosario is poor at both.
If he can keep improving the offense into the high .800's, or even low .900's, than he can more than make up for the defense and baserunning. But as of now, he's barely doing that.

You're putting a lot of faith in WAR and I'm not sure you should. I like using WAR to say that Buxton is already a 5 WAR guy but really, WAR is pretty suspect and it's measurements of defense and baserunning are even worse. I don't think it tells us anything. 

 

The reason Kepler has a higher bWAR is because bWAR doesn't like Rosario's defense. fWAR, for what it's worth, has Rosario with double the WAR of Kepler. I don't think Rosario's a bad baserunner, in fact, I think he's very good at it.  I suspect that's a stat that fluctuates wildly year to year but he certainly passes the eye test. Defensively, it got knocked down too much. There have been articles out there that have said that if you have three good defenders in the OF, one of them is going to be negatively affected by the other two. bWAR has Rosario in Delmon Young/Josh Willingham territory defensively. No way was he that bad. 

 

Rosario, unlike Kepler, has shown ability to hit and he made remarkable improvements this year. I like both players. I don't want us to trade either unless our doors are knocked off. But Rosario is the more complete player right now and, I suspect, will continue to be the better all around player.

[Mike Sixel]

I agree that Rosario is the better player right now, and may or may not be going forward. I don't know that we know he has "figured it out" though.

 

I'd be willing to trade either for the right pitcher, though. It would hurt for sure, but I'd be willing to do it.

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

Trades aren't for 1 year, though. I also find it odd you said "take all the stats", then ignored defense and base running completely, and used 1 stat. 

I used that one stat because it stands out so clearly.

Even if Kepler has a better arm, is a better base runner and has better range you have a guy who had an OPS higher than any MLB baseball team (Rosario) and a guy whose OPS would have come in 20th of 30 teams. There is a point at which that kind of difference is too much to ignore.

In my opinion that point has was reached by Rosario this year.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I personally am going to be very skeptical of any stat that said Kepler was a better player than Rosario this year. Rosario definitely made a few bone headed plays, but it's not like Kepler was perfect in that area. Rosario also has better range and a better bat.

Another reason I prefer fWAR. It just seems to align more with what I see on the field. Kepler (1.2 fWAR) was quite a bit below Rosario (2.5 fWAR).

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I don't think Rosario's a bad baserunner, in fact, I think he's very good at it.  I suspect that's a stat that fluctuates wildly year to year but he certainly passes the eye test. 

Agreed. Rosario's will fluctuate even moreso because he's a gambler on the basepaths. That player is going to get burned on occasion but he also makes some outstanding plays that don't count in any metric (like coaxing a balk while standing on third, which he did this season).

[clutterheart]

Why would Pittsburgh want Kepler or Rosario?

They have Marte & Polanco at the corners both are young and neither should be given up on yet.  They have one more year left on McCutchen's deal and they have Austin Meadows knocking on the door.  I would be shocked if they traded their only reliable starting pitcher for an OF'er and Gordon.  

 

My plea for the offseason:   Could we at least try and look at the roster of the other team before proposing trades?

 

[drjim]

 

Why would Pittsburgh want Kepler or Rosario?

They have Marte & Polanco at the corners both are young and neither should be given up on yet.  They have one more year left on McCutchen's deal and they have Austin Meadows knocking on the door.  I would be shocked if they traded their only reliable starting pitcher for an OF'er and Gordon.  

 

My plea for the offseason:   Could we at least try and look at the roster of the other team before proposing trades?

 

I imagine the thought is that they would also move McCutchen (as they tried to last season), move Marte to CF (where he was at the start of the year), and sit on Meadows for a little bit, since he did nothing to show he is ready last year.

 

There was plenty of discussion about this scenario. It is quite likely the Pirates trade Cole and McCutchen this offseason, but would rather re-tool than full on rebuild. Sending back mlb talent would allow them to do that.

[Vanimal46]

 

I imagine the thought is that they would also move McCutchen (as they tried to last season), move Marte to CF (where he was at the start of the year), and sit on Meadows for a little bit, since he did nothing to show he is ready last year.

 

There was plenty of discussion about this scenario. It is quite likely the Pirates trade Cole and McCutchen this offseason, but would rather re-tool than full on rebuild. Sending back mlb talent would allow them to do that.

 

Yes, all of this. 

Also, the Pirates' attendance has declined by 25% over the last 2 years, and will continue to do so next year. Historically, whenever revenue goes down for them, they find ways to cut costs. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Why would Pittsburgh want Kepler or Rosario?

They have Marte & Polanco at the corners both are young and neither should be given up on yet.  They have one more year left on McCutchen's deal and they have Austin Meadows knocking on the door.  I would be shocked if they traded their only reliable starting pitcher for an OF'er and Gordon.  

 

My plea for the offseason:   Could we at least try and look at the roster of the other team before proposing trades?

This is why I kinda leaned toward going all-prospects in the deal. If the Pirates are looking to offload Cole, it's likely they want to also move other players like McCutchen and go full rebuild.

[kab21]

 

Why would Pittsburgh want Kepler or Rosario?

They have Marte & Polanco at the corners both are young and neither should be given up on yet.  They have one more year left on McCutchen's deal and they have Austin Meadows knocking on the door.  I would be shocked if they traded their only reliable starting pitcher for an OF'er and Gordon.  

 

My plea for the offseason:   Could we at least try and look at the roster of the other team before proposing trades?

Yes, most likely the debate that we are having is Gordon and Gonsalves (or Romero) and perhaps some lower tier prospects. Gerrit Cole is probably my top trade target this offseason (I don't think Archer is available). It would definitely hurt to trade 2 of the better prospects but being able to add a top pitcher (the best in the Twins rotation) and only cost arb prices for payroll would be a huge get for this team. This gives them a lot of flexibility this offseason to pursue another starter or in the bullpen.

I will say that I expect Rosario to regress some next season statistically with his numbers falling into the .750-.775 OPS range. And he will remain a starter and important part of the team. I would consider including him in a trade if the other team was valuing him like this board is.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Not so much he balked but he moved back to CF by necessity after Marte got popped for roids, then he stayed after Marte came back. I'm not sure the Pirates would want to do that again.

 

But yes, one more year for McCutchen. He had a nice year, but he won't be outrageously expensive. Could be a possibility.

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/18704816/andrew-mccutchen-says-pittsburgh-pirates-give-choice-moving-right-field

 

Yeah, he more or less did ‘balk’ at the move.

 

Keep in mind this is McCutchen trying to smooth over the fan base

[drjim]

He also did this:

 

 

I'm not surprised he pushed back initially against being voluntold to move to RF. Almost any athlete with pride would do so.

[Mr. Brooks]

He also did this:

 

https://twitter.com/TheCUTCH22/status/828410023315374082

 

I'm not surprised he pushed back initially against being voluntold to move to RF. Almost any athlete with pride would do so.

I disagree.

Its one thing to not like it, but if your employer tells you to go play over there, instead of over here, for the good of the team, you should do it enthusiastically.

Players get paid to play, not to make lineup or roster decisions. They already have guys getting paid to do that.

[drjim]

 

I disagree.
Its one thing to not like it, but if your employer tells you to go play over there, instead of over here, for the good of the team, you should do it enthusiastically.
Players get paid to play, not to make lineup or roster decisions. They already have guys getting paid to do that.

 

Right. It's a nice sentiment, but people who think like that don't make it to the major leagues.

[gunnarthor]

 

I disagree.
Its one thing to not like it, but if your employer tells you to go play over there, instead of over here, for the good of the team, you should do it enthusiastically.
Players get paid to play, not to make lineup or roster decisions. They already have guys getting paid to do that.

In Twins history, the players who pushed back against position and/or role changes or being dropped in the lineup included Kirby Pucket, Joe Mauer, Glen Perkins, Rick Aguilera, Kevin Slowey, Kevin Tapani, Scott Erickson, Dave Winfield,  ...

 

Athletes have big egos and don't want to be told they can't do something anymore. That's not a big issue for me.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Right. It's a nice sentiment, but people who think like that don't make it to the major leagues.

 

so you were cool with how Sano reacted to the RF move?

[Mr. Brooks]

Right. It's a nice sentiment, but people who think like that don't make it to the major leagues.

I don't remember Mauer making a big stink about moving to 1B. But, maybe I just don't remember.

 

I'm also not denying that people DO react the way that McCutcheon did, just that they shouldn't.

 

Getting this far in life behaving this way isn't an excuse for behaving this way.

[Mr. Brooks]

In Twins history, the players who pushed back against position and/or role changes or being dropped in the lineup included Kirby Pucket, Joe Mauer, Glen Perkins, Rick Aguilera, Kevin Slowey, Kevin Tapani, Scott Erickson, Dave Winfield, ...

 

Athletes have big egos and don't want to be told they can't do something anymore. That's not a big issue for me.

Again, naming people that have done it doesn't somehow justify it.

 

If someone cuts me off in traffic, they aren't any less of a jerk just because they have a big ego, so hey it's expected.

[jimmer]

 

I don't remember Mauer making a big stink about moving to 1B. But, maybe I just don't remember.
 

You don't remember it because it didn't happen.

[Deduno Abides]

Cole may not be as highly valued as Sonny Gray, who was obtained for three prospects, two of whom have bad injuries and one of whom has seen his star diminished. It seems like three prospects, headlined by a top 50 like Gordon, with two lower rated prospects, should be sufficient for a cost-conscious team entering a rebuild like the Pirates.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

You don't remember it because it didn't happen.

 

Mauer requested the move, did he not?

[gunnarthor]

 

Mauer requested the move, did he not?

Eventually, but he resisted moving out from behind the plate and he resisted being moved out of the three spot in the order. He has a big ego, just like all these guys.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Eventually, but he resisted moving out from behind the plate and he resisted being moved out of the three spot in the order. He has a big ego, just like all these guys.

This is the way I remember it as well. Did Mauer bitch? Not that I can recall... but I vaguely remember a typical Mauer "aw shucks, I really like playing catcher and would like to keep doing it but oh golly, I guess that's no longer going to happen", which is the Joe Mauer equivalent of a normal player holding a press conference and dropping f-bombs in protest.

[gunnarthor]

Exactly, and there is nothing wrong with that. These guys are amazing athletes and they think they can do anything. They should be offended if they are told they can't play a position or hit clean-up. How many times to we see a starting pitcher glare at his manager when he's pulled? That pitcher thinks he can get the out and doesn't need the help.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Exactly, and there is nothing wrong with that. These guys are amazing athletes and they think they can do anything. They should be offended if they are told they can't play a position or hit clean-up. How many times to we see a starting pitcher glare at his manager when he's pulled? That pitcher thinks he can get the out and doesn't need the help.

Absolutely. You don't become one of the five best people at your profession by being milquetoast. Joe Mauer has an ego and wants to succeed (and thinks he can), just like every other athlete at the top of their game.