Go Bold: Trade for Gerrit Cole

[goulik]

I like the idea of trading Rosario or Kepler + Gordon + Gonsalves + A level lottery ticket or two for Cole + McCutcheon. That will leave the off season priority FA signing of relievers and prepping for a deep run next post season... Lets Go!

 

I believe the Short Stop depth will be fine with Palacios and others also rising through the system that we can sacrifice Gordon for win now mode and maybe that win now mode will also encourage McCutcheon to stick around a little longer (A couple more years at least)

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Rivero had a 1.67 ERA and a 0.89 WHIP. I don't expect numbers that good this year too, but I don't think there's a RP of that quality on the market and if there was he'd be a lot of money. I'd really like to get Rivero if we do make a trade for Cole even if it costs us some young lottery ticket players. 

 

I don't know what's on the market (so you may have a point there), but even at that quality, you're looking at 10M a year. If they just picked up McCutcheon and Cole, they can round out the payroll without adding more prospects. I get that prospects are prospects, but you use them to acquire pieces you cannot easily buy, and I don't really see RPs fitting that mold.

 

Minnesota has a nice window and some good surplus pieces in guys like Gordon and some of their AA/AAA depth. They will, without question, need some of that depth.  Sacrificing too much will hurt them at the inevitable injury, leave them without pieces to acquire more help, or cost them in not having ready replacements.

[FargoFanMan]

I've been clamoring for cole since July. Again a couple of weeks ago before the thread turned into which pitcher people would rather have and this that and the other thing. I believe I suggested Gordon,Romero, Thorpe and possibly Wade or another 15-30 guy. Is that legit to get Cole? He just seems like a guy who could be a cy young guy with a change of scenery hopefully.

[Danchat]

I wouldn't like this deal if it was Rosario-Gordon-Mejia for a NL guy who just pitched a 4.26 ERA / 4.08 FIP. I would be able to tolerate the move if he could pitch like his 2013-16 self (2.98 FIP). But sending a legit corner OF, a good SS prospect, and a 4/5 starter all for a guy who might be a 2/3 starter with only 2 years of control for him would be a bargain for the Pirates. And then we'd have a hole in LF and another starter to find. No thanks.

[Doctor Wu]

Thinking about the names tossed out thus far .. Lance Lynn would be okay. Nothing special but a solid addition. But to contend next year I think we would need more. I'd love to add a pitcher like Gerrit Cole, but I also would be more excited about Chris Archer. That aside, it scares me to think what we would have to give up to acquire one of those arms. Definitely 2 or 3 quality pieces. Is it worth it? Perhaps it is. I don't see any comparable arms in the high minors, so maybe we need to roll the dice and try to grab something with a "wow" factor.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I've been clamoring for cole since July. Again a couple of weeks ago before the thread turned into which pitcher people would rather have and this that and the other thing. I believe I suggested Gordon,Romero, Thorpe and possibly Wade or another 15-30 guy. Is that legit to get Cole? He just seems like a guy who could be a cy young guy with a change of scenery hopefully.

 

Just Cole?  Way too much.

[ahart10]

If the Twins don't make a move like this in the next couple years the "contention window" will never open. Top tier starters cost too much in FA. It's gonna suck to see some promising young players go. I'd be happier if a trade happened and turned out poorly than if Twins sit on their hands.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

One of Rosario or Kepler + Nick Gordon + Mejia for Cole. Does that get it done?

Considering how Cole was worth just half a win more than Rosario in 2017, that would certainly get it done.

 

Inversely, the Twins would be lunatics for even considering that package.

[Vanimal46]

 

Considering how Cole was worth just half a win more than Rosario in 2017, that would certainly get it done.

 

Inversely, the Twins would be lunatics for even considering that package.

 

Admittedly I went to heavy on the initial trade proposal... Mainly because it gets tiring seeing proposals that heavily favor the Twins. 

[markos]

 

Considering how Cole was worth just half a win more than Rosario in 2017, that would certainly get it done.

 

Inversely, the Twins would be lunatics for even considering that package.

I'm going to tentatively disagree with the latter part. The trade market upper-tier players is not unlike the free agent market - almost everyone is willing to bid, and there is no prize for coming in second place. So while a Rosario-for-Cole swap is arguably fair from a WAR-accounting standpoint, I'm fairly certain that it isn't a winning bid. There are probably a dozen or more teams that have a Rosario/Kepler-quality young player (or players) that they would gladly exchange for Cole. If the Twins are going to trade for any above-average starter, almost by definition they will have to overpay to some degree.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I'm going to tentatively disagree with the latter part. The trade market upper-tier players is not unlike the free agent market - almost everyone is willing to bid, and there is no prize for coming in second place. So while a Rosario-for-Cole swap is arguably fair from a WAR-accounting standpoint, I'm fairly certain that it isn't a winning bid. There are probably a dozen or more teams that have a Rosario/Kepler-quality young player (or players) that they would gladly exchange for Cole. If the Twins are going to trade for any above-average starter, almost by definition they will have to overpay to some degree.

But it wasn't Rosario for Cole. It was Rosario (or Kepler), Gordon (a top 50 prospect), and Mejia (a 4/5 with six years of control) for Cole.

 

That offer is in the ballpark if Cole was a perennial 5.5 WAR player like he was a few years back but that year looks to be an outlier. Outside of that single season, Cole's high water mark in fWAR is around 3.0. That's complementary player territory, not upper tier.

[Vanimal46]

 

But it wasn't Rosario for Cole. It was Rosario (or Kepler), Gordon (a top 50 prospect), and Mejia (a 4/5 with six years of control) for Cole.

 

That offer is in the ballpark if Cole was a perennial 5.5 WAR player like he was a few years back but that year looks to be an outlier. Outside of that single season, Cole's high water mark in fWAR is around 3.0. That's complementary player territory, not upper tier.

 

Is there a package of players that you would trade for Cole? Or are you just out on him completely?

[T_J]

I loved the idea of Cole and McCutchen as a July Trade last season. I would be all about grabbing both in the offseason. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Is there a package of players that you would trade for Cole? Or are you just out on him completely?

If you could get him for Kepler and Gonsalves, I'd do that. Probably Kepler and Gordon is reasonable, really.

 

If Rosario is in the package, I'd probably do Rosario and Gonsalves.

 

If you could get him for Gordon and Gonsalves, I'd do that twice on Sunday.

[drjim]

 

If you could get him for Kepler and Gonsalves, I'd do that. Probably Kepler and Gordon is reasonable, really.

 

If Rosario is in the package, I'd probably do Rosario and Gonsalves.

 

If you could get him for Gordon and Gonsalves, I'd do that twice on Sunday.

 

I don't think I would add much, if anything, to Rosario or Kepler. There are not many teams that would offload a player of that quality, with that upside, and 4 years of control for a player of Cole's level and 2 years of control.

 

I would do a Gordon and Gonsalves trade. Not sure Pittsburgh would want that.

[GP830]

Perhaps I'm too high in Rosario, but I see him as a legitimate piece of the pie. Kepler, on the other hand doesn't seem to have fully figured it out. If we could get a taker on Kepler-- I'd be interested in including him as a big piece.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Honestly, I'd keep Rosario over Kepler if someone forced me to choose. Rosario made huge strides in his question mark areas and it really showed. Yeah, he makes some occasional boneheaded defensive plays (not that Kepler is a saint here), but in terms of upside, his is pretty high and he looks like he will get it. Kepler still shows a lot of weakness on one side of the plate. He doesn't have the range either. I like them both, but Rosario is quickly becoming a force.

[Mr. Brooks]

Honestly, I'd keep Rosario over Kepler if someone forced me to choose. Rosario made huge strides in his question mark areas and it really showed. Yeah, he makes some occasional boneheaded defensive plays (not that Kepler is a saint here), but in terms of upside, his is pretty high and he looks like he will get it. Kepler still shows a lot of weakness on one side of the plate. He doesn't have the range either. I like them both, but Rosario is quickly becoming a force.

And even still, Kepler had a higher bWAR than Rosario and is 2 years younger.

 

Kepler's defense and baserunning are so much better than Rosario's, that if he just figures out how to be poor, rather than awful against lefties, he's a 4+ WAR player.

 

I'd keep Kepler over Rosario, and to me its not close. But, Kepler also probably brings back a lot more in a trade.

[amjgt]

I'm not up on McCutchen other than his stats... might he be a good mentor for Buxton? Or is he not that type of guy?

[amjgt]

I think the differing views on Kepler vs Rosario are fascinating. I've always been a bit lukewarm on both but Rosario really showed me something this year. Kepler on the other hand seems to have stagnated a bit and is just terrible against lefties. I also like the attitude Rosario brings. He's not the "here's how to be a leader" type of guy, but most guys aren't. He's got a unique enthusiasm and thirst for the moment that this team really needs.

 

I'm hesitant to trade either, but if we can get Cole and McCutchen for something like Kepler/Gordon/(Gonsalves or Romero)/RP prospect/Single A lottery ticket, I'd probably do that trade.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

And even still, Kepler had a higher bWAR than Rosario and is 2 years younger.

Kepler's defense and baserunning are so much better than Rosario's, that if he just figures out how to be poor, rather than awful against lefties, he's a 4+ WAR player.

I'd keep Kepler over Rosario, and to me its not close. But, Kepler also probably brings back a lot more in a trade.

 

I hope I didn't come across as hating on Kepler. I like him. If Kepler brings more back at this point, it is based on upside (due largely to his age). Call it a market inefficiency, but Rosario at 25 had a .290 BA and 27 HRs, good for a sexy .839 OPS while playing average to above defense and moving all his negative peripherals in the right direction.

 

He's here now, and will be on this team for several years. Kepler is banking on a higher upside. One has figured it out and is a force. One has not, and if Kepler and prospects is valuable enough to bring back an upgrade in McCutcheon and a desperately needed SP, I think I do it, even as I send him Christmas cards every year thanking him for destroying the Indians.

[Mr. Brooks]

I hope I didn't come across as hating on Kepler. I like him. If Kepler brings more back at this point, it is based on upside (due largely to his age). Call it a market inefficiency, but Rosario at 25 had a .290 BA and 27 HRs, good for a sexy .839 OPS while playing average to above defense and moving all his negative peripherals in the right direction.

 

He's here now, and will be on this team for several years. Kepler is banking on a higher upside. One has figured it out and is a force. One has not, and if Kepler and prospects is valuable enough to bring back an upgrade in McCutcheon and a desperately needed SP, I think I do it, even as I send him Christmas cards every year thanking him for destroying the Indians.

But the one who "hasn't figured it out", is still producing more bWAR than the guy who is "already a force", which is my point.

 

Yes, Rosario's improvement on offense is encouraging, but defense and baserunning count too, and Rosario is poor at both.

If he can keep improving the offense into the high .800's, or even low .900's, than he can more than make up for the defense and baserunning. But as of now, he's barely doing that.

[markos]

 

But it wasn't Rosario for Cole. It was Rosario (or Kepler), Gordon (a top 50 prospect), and Mejia (a 4/5 with six years of control) for Cole.

 

That offer is in the ballpark if Cole was a perennial 5.5 WAR player like he was a few years back but that year looks to be an outlier. Outside of that single season, Cole's high water mark in fWAR is around 3.0. That's complementary player territory, not upper tier.

I obviously feel very different about Cole. He is a top-20 starter in total fWAR over the past 4 seasons. He is top-25 in FIP-, right next to Chris Archer. He has average 4+WAR/200 innings. I'm pretty comfortable putting him in the upper tier of starters. And I think he would be in very high demand if made available. 

[Darius]

It may be too steep. I was just trying to make it more realistic than (insert struggling Twins' prospect here) + Duensing for Cole proposals that we've seen before.

Kennys Vargas and Phil Hughes sounds fair.

[FargoFanMan]

Unless we're adding cutch why trade either Rosario or Kepler if we can use our prospects? Rosario improved over the season and Kepler is solid and improving. I think we stick with Cole and ship the unproven prospects while keeping our young controllable Of's. If they want to give us Cutch then maybe take on his contract and throw in a low A/A+ wildcard. I got ragged on earlier so I'm going Cole for Gordon, Romero and Thorpe. We keep our young hitters. We still have some minors depth and a solid '17 draft core coming up and we get a solid pitcher who's got more upside and less questions than an expensive and old FA. I think that's fair all around. What do you guys think?

[Darius]

I obviously feel very different about Cole. He is a top-20 starter in total fWAR over the past 4 seasons. He is top-25 in FIP-, right next to Chris Archer. He has average 4+WAR/200 innings. I'm pretty comfortable putting him in the upper tier of starters. And I think he would be in very high demand if made available.

Yeah, I'm surprised at some of the evaluations of him in this thread also. A low-end 2 was an assessment.

 

I heard all year that Santana was an ace. If that's the case, Cole certainly is.

 

Maybe there are 2 Gerrit Coles and everyone else is referring to the inferior of the two?

 

780 innings, 12 WAR, 112 ERA+, 3.5 ERA, 3.27 FIP, .8 HR/9, 2.4 BB/9, with about one K per inning. Sign me up yesterday.

[FargoFanMan]

Kennys Vargas and Phil Hughes sounds fair.

Sometimes seems like some around here are living in the OOTP baseball world playing in commissioner mode. Cole, mccutchen for Andrew Vazquez. "Force Trade" haha

[Oldgoat_MN]

A couple of points:

1. Kepler may have had a higher bWAR than Rosario this year, but if you took ALL the stats to all the MLB GMs and said one of these guys is playing in your OF next year, 30 out of 30 would select Rosario's .836 OPS over Kepler's .737 OPS.

2. Chris Archer is signed to a very team friendly contract for 4 more years. And they aren't even guaranteed! The last two years are team options, protecting you from paying full salary to a guy who ruined his arm. I could see the Angels trading Mike Trout before I could see the Rays trading Chris Archer, at least for a couple more years.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I obviously feel very different about Cole. He is a top-20 starter in total fWAR over the past 4 seasons. He is top-25 in FIP-, right next to Chris Archer. He has average 4+WAR/200 innings. I'm pretty comfortable putting him in the upper tier of starters. And I think he would be in very high demand if made available.

The key difference being that Archer has actually pitched those innings and hasn’t gone down and been replaced with a subpar pitcher for an average of 30-40 innings a season.

[old nurse]

 

Kennys Vargas and Phil Hughes sounds fair.

Sounds about right for Carrasco.     I did not know that Hector was still pitching.