Article: Diving Into The Offseason: A Dozier Extension?

[Steve Lein]

 

I love the idea of signing for 2 years... because i think they will rush Lewis and for good reason... 

 

with lewis at SS what do they do with Gordon and Palonco and Dozier? 

 

Trade someone to get to starting pitching... 

 

thots?

 

I don't think Lewis is going to be a shortstop in the majors, but I'm not doubting him putting in the necessary effort to improve there. 

 

Gordon is going to get his shot at SS in the near future, and I think he can stick. He won't be flashy, but I think he'll be better than Polanco. Jermaine Palacios is keeping himself in the SS conversation too.

 

I love Dozier, but the obvious path for the middle infield moving forward is Polanco taking over at 2B and Gordon sliding into SS. If you sign Dozier, that means Polanco or Gordon is without a spot.

 

So I think there's 2 scenarios:

 

1. Trade or not re-sign Dozier to get a Gordon/Polanco middle infield

2. Sign Dozier and trade Gordon or Polanco (you probably can only trade Gordon)

[Don Walcott]

I would love to see the Twins extend Dozier. After 2018, I think he could move to 1B if we have other middle infielders pushing their way into major league spots. I think his bat will be good for a 1B for another 2-3 years after 2018. I would hope that he would go for 3 years with one option year. You never know, he might show appreciation for the team that brought him up, and didn't trade him for cheap. And giving Molitor 3 years might have helped make this deal.

[dbminn]

I'd limit the contract to 3 years, raise Seth's annual salary for 2019 to $18M and give Dozier an opt-out before 2020. ($3M bonus/$18M/$16M/$14M = $51M). The Twins could add a 4th year with vesting option/buyout.

 

Otherwise, let it play out to the end of the year. IMO, the Twins need his production to compete in 2018. 

[PDX Twin]

When is the Twins' window?

 

Teams other than the rich boys have to plan for a cycle if they want to win championships. Down-cycles bring high draft picks, which are then the core of the up-cycle contenders. Of the four teams still alive for the championship this year, the Dodgers, Cubs, and Yankees are rich and can buy all the toys all the time. The Astros (and the Nationals had they made it) are up-cycle teams who used a few terrible years with high draft choices to build the core of an excellent team that matured all at once. Their window is now.

 

When is the Twins' window? As has been discussed here at length, the Twins will struggle to hold onto all of Buxton, Sano, Berrios, Polanco, Kepler, Rosario, etc. I see the Twins' window as opening in 2019 and lasting until about 2021, extended possibly by one year on either side. So I evaluate any transactions based on how they affect the likely quality of the team over the five-year period 2018-22.

 

This period would correspond to Dozier's potential remaining career if re-signed. Given a bumpy first year (as nearly all of our rookies have), Gordon starts contributing maybe in 2020 and Lewis maybe at the end of the window. How do we get to the point that Gordon, then Lewis, are actually good? It seems like we have an incumbent who fits perfectly: excellent in 2018 and 2019, and probably a solid contributor (if not the team's MVP) in 2020 and couple of years beyond. Plus, he is the team's clubhouse leader (something that I think is very important but that we, as outsiders, don't know much about) and a very popular player.

 

The same glut of great secondbasemen that drove down the trade prospects is also going to moderate his salary options as a free agent. I think they can sign him to a reasonable 4-5-year contract (counting 2018) and that they should.

 

One more thing. We have been told for years that the money is there if the opportunity arises. Well, this is the opportunity. As we swing up the cycle, so does the marginal benefit of additional salary commitment. The Twins should be looking to increase the salary budget to take advantage of their window. For me, the key is to avoid (when they can) the long-term commitments like those that the Tigers gave to Cabrera (30m+) and Zimmerman (25m), which will eat up budget over the next 5 years of mediocrity. 

 

Good luck to the Twins in finding the sweet spot that brings in enough star power to contend for titles through the window without threatening bankruptcy if we fall short!

[Seth Stohs]

 

Its not that I don't recognize how good Dozier has been, because I know how good he's been.  That's why I wanted him dealt for pitching.  I'm looking from a big picture aspect.  I think it's reasonable for him to seek a 4 year deal and he'll get paid handsomely with it.  A midmarket team can't really afford to sign a guy to a deal like that and then still try to extend young and emerging core players like this team has and then still build most of a pitching staff.  I want to do what I can to keep Buxton, Sano and Berrios and if that costs me one Dozier, then so be it.  The previously mentioned three should be in a Twins uniform long past Dozier.  For me, it has less to do with Dozier's age as it does keeping the young core together.

 

I thought he should be traded last offseason too... made sense then. But if they weren't offered a halfway decent return a year ago, do we think he would bring back a haul this offseason? 

 

Buxton, Sano, Berrios, etc., won't get expensive until the final years of a 4-year Dozier extension. There's no reason they can't do both. Well, there are lots of reasons not to, but at the dollars I provided, it could work.  

[Cory Engelhardt]

 

I don't think Lewis is going to be a shortstop in the majors, but I'm not doubting him putting in the necessary effort to improve there. 

 

Gordon is going to get his shot at SS in the near future, and I think he can stick. He won't be flashy, but I think he'll be better than Polanco. Jermaine Palacios is keeping himself in the SS conversation too.

 

I love Dozier, but the obvious path for the middle infield moving forward is Polanco taking over at 2B and Gordon sliding into SS. If you sign Dozier, that means Polanco or Gordon is without a spot.

 

So I think there's 2 scenarios:

 

1. Trade or not re-sign Dozier to get a Gordon/Polanco middle infield

2. Sign Dozier and trade Gordon or Polanco (you probably can only trade Gordon)

 

Couldn't one of them slide over to 3rd if Dozier is resigned too?

[diehardtwinsfan]

Will he even sign? He signed that deal b/c he wanted to do FA...

 

That said, I don't see him taking a 2 year deal either. I think Dozier makes more sense getting a QO. He won't take it, and we will get compensation for him when he leaves. With Gordon likely sitting in AAA next season, they will have another year to evaluate Gordon and either trying for a 1 year stop gap or bringing up the kid.

 

Like others, that money is better spent acquiring pitching or locking up the new core.

[Lefty]

Dude has gotten better with time.  He plays all the time, hits 30 jacks.  The Twins need to be keeping their stars.  Obviously you don't sign him to a 10-year deal, but this guy needs to be in our lineup.  We can't afford to let him go somewhere else.  I'm sick of seeing stars get dealt for prospects.  The cool thing to do now days is get a new, young guy in there that is bound to be a star, but how often does that pan out?  We have a 2B that hits for power at the top of our lineup that isn't a liability in the field?  This is a no-brainer.  SIGN HIM!!!  Polanco and Gordon aren't going to supply the offense that this guy does.

[wsnydes]

 

I thought he should be traded last offseason too... made sense then. But if they weren't offered a halfway decent return a year ago, do we think he would bring back a haul this offseason? 

 

Buxton, Sano, Berrios, etc., won't get expensive until the final years of a 4-year Dozier extension. There's no reason they can't do both. Well, there are lots of reasons not to, but at the dollars I provided, it could work.  

Agreed on the current state of a Dozier trade.  At this point, it might make more sense to deal either Dozier or Gordon depending on who garners the larger return.  If that isn't in the cards, I'm fine with allowing Dozier to walk.  That's a different topic however and I'll leave it there.

 

Aside from extending Buxton, Sano, Berrios and perhaps a couple of others, they still need to bring in some FA pitching in my opinion.  I'd rather see the money spent there than on something that the organization several options internally to fill the void.  Will they replace Dozier?  Not likely, but it helps a potential log jam and also keeps cash free to acquire pitching.  Yes, I agree that they could extend Dozier and those young guys, I just feel it wiser to spend that cash elsewhere to improve the team. 

[drjim]

Why would they trade Dozier now? I assume they plan on competing and they don't have a ready replacement.

 

I think they have a shot at a 3 year extension. If Dozier balks, him walking next year is not a disaster.

[clutterheart]

I would love Dozier to stay on, but I wouldn't hate him signed for anything too much longer than 2021 or 2022.  Unless things go drastically wrong by 2022 the next "wave" of prospects should be ready. One of Marte, Lewis, Javier, Miranda, Arraez, Palacios, Bechtold , Blankenhorn, or Del La Torre will be ready to take the MI helm and will hopefully push guys like Gordon, Polanco, and Dozier out.  

 

The FO needs to keep contracts of guys like Dozier short, while focusing on guys like Buxton, Sano, Rosario, Kepler, Berrios, Romero (hopefully), Gonsalves (Hopefully) & May (hopefully)

 

[Winston Smith]

There is no reason, unless he gets no offers next winter, for him to take a 2-3 year deal with the Twins. This is his last chance to cash in. Most of these free agent deals make sense the first couple years and don't in the later years. So if the Twins give him a 5 year deal, which he'll likely want, expect the last couple years to be a bad deal. That's just the way it usually goes.

IMO spend the money on some quality pitching next winter

[nicksaviking]

For me the problem isn't age so much as position. Just look at all of those names listed in the article; everyone has a good 2B which is why the Twins couldn't trade Dozier last year.

 

Should he find himself in the free agent market, Dozier would almost certainly have to take an offer well below what his offensive numbers suggest.

 

But to extend him, the Twins would be forced to pay for those numbers. Let his contract expire, offer him a QO and then re-sign him then if the team still needs him. I'd bet it would be cheaper then than now.

[twinfan]

I would say extend for 3 years at 40 million with a 15 million option year.

[Brandon]

Last offseason i said extend him. This offseason i say it again. At the end of his 5 year extension he should have over 300 HRs, 1000 runs, and some other good counting stats maybe 750-800 RBIs. He likes it here and we are in contention window. Why wouldnt he want to resign. We are not too far from Mississippi where hes from.

[Mr. Brooks]

Like all but maybe 2-3 teams on either side, the Twins stay between 47 and 51% of revenues for their salaries.

Do you have any objective data to back any of that up?

The Twins have had payrolls recently that appear to rank lower than their market size suggests it should, if all teams are spending the same %.

 

You also didn't address my point.

Regardless of why, they are capped on what they can spend.

 

IMO they need to add high end pitching, and I'm not sure they can do that AND pay Dozier.

[jimmer]

Revenue to payroll ratio, two years ago:

 

http://i.imgur.com/yPYrkOg.jpg

Edited October 13, 2017 by jimmer

[Dman]

I am inclined to agree with those that say QO Dozier.  If Gordon doesn't look like he is ready after next year and Dozier takes the QO then we can go year to year with him until confident someone else can step into that role.  

 

If he declines the QO we still have Esco and Adrianza to fill in at short if Gordon isn't ready and the potential to get draft pick compensation.  

 

I think the worst thing you could do is sign Dozier long term and this is his one shot at the big money so he won't likely take a short term deal unless the market just isn't there. He is one of my favorite players but i agree with others that the money would be better spent on quality pitching if possible.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Dozier will want more than 3 years.

[drjim]

 

Do you have any objective data to back any of that up?
The Twins have had payrolls recently that appear to rank lower than their market size suggests it should, if all teams are spending the same %.

You also didn't address my point.
Regardless of why, they are capped on what they can spend.

IMO they need to add high end pitching, and I'm not sure they can do that AND pay Dozier.

 

Link for revenue and player expense here here: https://www.forbes.com/teams/minnesota-twins/

 

2008: $149MM revenue $81MM payroll 54%

2009: $158MM revenue $80MM payroll 51%

2010: $162MM revenue $83MM payroll 51%

2011: $213MM revenue $112MM payroll 53%

2012: $213MM revenue $121MM payroll 57%

2013: $214MM revenue $122MM payroll 57%

2014: $221MM revenue $97MM payroll 44%

2015: $223MM revenue $106MM payroll 48%

2016: $240MM revenue $125MM payroll 52%

2017: $249MM revenue $123MM payroll 49%

 

I didn't look at other franchises, but I imagine it is a similar range.

 

What I do think looking at this is that they may have a little bit of flexibility going into this next year, they seem to be a little light compared to historical trends, which isn't especially surprising considering they are at the end of a rebuild. They should have enough money to add a Lynn/Cobb type, another 1 year starter and a pretty good reliever. As money comes off the books (Mauer, ESan, Hughes), they can add Dozier if they do desire, expecting that revenues should keep creeping up.

[drjim]

 

Dozier will want more than 3 years.

 

Obviously. But not clear where he gets it.

[Tomj14]

Everybody on the roster excluding Buxton and Berrios should be available for the right deal.

I just don't seeing trading Dozier unless it makes next year's team better, because IMO I don't see anybody really close to replacing him. Fingers are crossed that Gordon can do it soon, but him tailing in the second half threw big red flags for me.

[Thrylos]

 

 

I wonder if people realize just how good Dozier has been.

 

 

Devil's advocate:  If Dozier were so good, why nobody was willing to give anything better than a rookie SP in return for him last off-season?

 

That is a serious piece of data that should not be ignored and speaks directly about the league's perception of how good he really is...

 

 

Edited October 13, 2017 by Thrylos

[Danchat]

Well, you definitely don't trade him now. There just isn't a trade market for 2Bs. We should be trying to win in 2018 and trading him for peanuts is not going to help us win.

 

I think he will play out the final year of his deal and we'll reevaluate things at the end of 2018. Did he have another great year? Is there any middle infield prospects ready behind him and Polanco? How are we going to afford Dozier from 2019 to 2021?

 

Plus he's not going to take some 3 year $40M deal. He's going to be well paid by someone, and that's not gonna be us if we lowball him.

[Thrylos]

 

I think it all depends on what the FO thinks of Gordon and/or Polanco.

 

It is not only Gordon and Polanco, it is Escobar and Adrianza, as well

 

[Danchat]

 

Devil's advocate:  If Dozier were so good, why nobody was willing to give anything better than a rookie SP in return for him last off-season?

 

That is a serious piece of data that should not be ignored and speaks directly about the league's perception of how good he really is...

Dozier is a good 2B, the problem is that most teams have pretty solid 2Bs, so they won't be giving up a lot of prospects to somewhat increase their 2B's hitting. Playing defense there isn't very hard compared to SS and 3B and you can stick a decent bat at 2B. Dozier's trade value would be much higher if he could play SS well, then teams would be jumping at the gun. 

[drjim]

Devil's advocate: If Dozier were so good, why nobody was willing to give anything better than a rookie SP in return for him last off-season?

 

That is a serious piece of data that should not be ignored and speaks directly about the league's perception of how good he really is...

I take this as a promising sign that a reasonable extension can be worked out. The better teams in the league don't have a strong need for a 2b in the immediate future.

[Dman]

 

Dozier will want more than 3 years.

 

If and I know that is a big if you could sign Dozier for three years at a reasonable rate then I think that would be tough to pass up given his production.  Not sure what that means for the Gordon Timeline but Doziers production is not easily replaced especially his power.  He should have another 3 years of solid production in him and or at least it is a good bet.

 

If you felt like Gordon was ready or a better option later on you could attempt to trade him again as well.

 

My hunch is that he gets a four year deal with a fifth year option.  Depending on what he costs dollar wise I don't think it makes sense for the Twins to spend that much on a 2nd baseman but he is the team leader and a solid producer so they might see things differently.

Edited October 13, 2017 by Dman

[Squirrel]

I take this as a promising sign that a reasonable extension can be worked out. The better teams in the league don't have a strong need for a 2b in the immediate future.

Well, or not. If there isn't a market for him, what's to motivate the team to offer him what he may want or even anything that equals what other 2nd basemen have gotten? Or by 'promising sign' you meant that we can re-sign Dozier to a team-friendly extension without worry that he will say no and resign from his position for FA when the time comes?

[Mr. Brooks]

Link for revenue and player expense here here: https://www.forbes.com/teams/minnesota-twins/

 

2008: $149MM revenue $81MM payroll 54%

2009: $158MM revenue $80MM payroll 51%

2010: $162MM revenue $83MM payroll 51%

2011: $213MM revenue $112MM payroll 53%

2012: $213MM revenue $121MM payroll 57%

2013: $214MM revenue $122MM payroll 57%

2014: $221MM revenue $97MM payroll 44%

2015: $223MM revenue $106MM payroll 48%

2016: $240MM revenue $125MM payroll 52%

2017: $249MM revenue $123MM payroll 49%

 

I didn't look at other franchises, but I imagine it is a similar range.

 

What I do think looking at this is that they may have a little bit of flexibility going into this next year, they seem to be a little light compared to historical trends, which isn't especially surprising considering they are at the end of a rebuild. They should have enough money to add a Lynn/Cobb type, another 1 year starter and a pretty good reliever. As money comes off the books (Mauer, ESan, Hughes), they can add Dozier if they do desire, expecting that revenues should keep creeping up.

Ok. Well those revenues are estimates, baseball teams don't disclose revenue.

But, it's as good of data as there is ever going to be available, so fair enough, I concede that point.