Article: Knock. Knock. Silence.

[yarnivek1972]

On the other side of the coin, are they prepared to lose Buxton after 6 years if he develops into a star? Because if Buxton reaches the potential we think he can be (5-8 WAR player) then he will be out of Minnesota's budget.

Why? Puckett wasn’t. He posted 3 seasons of fWAR of 4.7 or higher in his first 6. They made him MLB’s first $3 mil per year player. Sure, salaries are higher now. So is revenue. Tom Kelly’s last year as manager was 2001. Twins revenue was $75 mil that year. It was $249 mil in 2016. Who knows where revenue will be in 6 years. $300 mil? Not unrealistic IMO. Will the Twins still need to make wise secisions? Yep. Will they need to choose between Buxton and maybe Sano or Rosario? Probably. Can they make Buxton one of the highest paid players in MLB and still field a championship level team? I think so.

[Bill Brown69]

I want at least 4 of this core to be Twins for 10 years. That is why the FO gets paid. Make the right calls on the right players and get it done. 

 

All have concerns, yes it is a risk, but less of a risk IMHO than losing the fans by letting them all walk. 

 

But yes, I said 10 years. So we are talking 8 year contracts for at least a couple. Get 1-2 done this offseason and at least 1 per year for the next 2.

[Vanimal46]

 

Why? Puckett wasn’t. He posted 3 seasons of fWAR of 4.7 or higher in his first 6. They made him MLB’s first $3 mil per year player. Sure, salaries are higher now. So is revenue. Tom Kelly’s last year as manager was 2001. Twins revenue was $75 mil that year. It was $249 mil in 2016. Who knows where revenue will be in 6 years. $300 mil? Not unrealistic IMO. Will the Twins still need to make wise secisions? Yep. Will they need to choose between Buxton and maybe Sano or Rosario? Probably. Can they make Buxton one of the highest paid players in MLB and still field a championship level team? I think so.

 

I would like for it to happen. I just don't know what one of the highest paid players in MLB is going to be when he's a FA in 2022. 

I truly believe we're going to be dumbfounded next off-season when Harper, Kershaw and Machado sign $40+ MM a year contracts. It's going to be a game changer. 

Edited October 11, 2017 by Vanimal46

[Otto von Ballpark]

Why? Puckett wasn’t. He posted 3 seasons of fWAR of 4.7 or higher in his first 6. They made him MLB’s first $3 mil per year player. Sure, salaries are higher now. So is revenue. Tom Kelly’s last year as manager was 2001. Twins revenue was $75 mil that year. It was $249 mil in 2016. Who knows where revenue will be in 6 years. $300 mil? Not unrealistic IMO. Will the Twins still need to make wise secisions? Yep. Will they need to choose between Buxton and maybe Sano or Rosario? Probably. Can they make Buxton one of the highest paid players in MLB and still field a championship level team? I think so.

By the same token, though, a Kiermaier type deal paying Buxton $13 mil a year through his prime isn't going to be a millstone around our neck either, even if he washes out.

 

And you have to admit there would be a benefit to paying Buxton ~$13 mil per season in his prime if he winds up providing ~$26 mil worth of production or whatever. That would be another $13 mil we could allocate elsewhere, like toward an ace.

 

We're obviously not sure how it will all shake out, but this offseason may be our last chance to get Buxton on this kind of deal. Unless you have a better plan to allocate that cash right now, I think I would prefer making a bet on Buxton with it.

Edited October 11, 2017 by spycake

[yarnivek1972]

I would like for it to happen. I just don't know what one of the highest paid players in MLB is going to be when he's a FA in 2022.

 

I truly believe we're going to be dumbfounded next off-season when Harper, Kershaw and Machado sign $40+ MM a year contracts. It's going to be a game changer.

In two of the last four seasons, Bryce Harper has had a bWAR under 2 and in only one season in his career is it higher than 5.1. Buyer beware.

 

And like I said, nothing stops the Twins from making an offer in June of next year, long before the free agency season.

[Monkeypaws]

 

they’ll each be in line for a guaranteed salary of $3M-$5M. That is at least close to “lifetime security” money.

 

Close? I guess you and I have different lifestyles John

[beckmt]

I would go for it.  Berrios can wait until after next year or even the year after, pitcher injuries scare me.  I agree waiting until after 2018 is playing with fools money.  After next year most very good to great players will wait for FA and know they are getting paid.  

That is why the CBA After 2021 is going to be so important.

[Platoon]

Buxton for sure. For as many years as he'll agree to.

Sano is a tougher call, but I probably make an offer. I am leery about what security might do to motivation.

Rosario, I just let it ride at least another year.

Sign Berrios too.

Pretty much concur. I would not let the possibility of a Buxton injury impact my decision. And agree, Sano is a tough call. This could be a big year for him. He is either going to work hard and become one of the most feared hitters in baseball,.............................. Or he won't!

[yarnivek1972]

I would go for it. Berrios can wait until after next year or even the year after, pitcher injuries scare me. I agree waiting until after 2018 is playing with fools money. After next year most very good to great players will wait for FA and know they are getting paid.

That is why the CBA After 2021 is going to be so important.

After 2018, Rosario, Buxton and Sano will still be 3 years away from FA. That’s an awful long time to stay healthy. Especially for Buxton and Sano, who both already have rather extended inury history.

[beckmt]

 

After 2018, Rosario, Buxton and Sano will still be 3 years away from FA. That’s an awful long time to stay healthy. Especially for Buxton and Sano, who both already have rather extended inury history.

Yes and if they do stay healthly they are only 3 years away, and going to want big average dollars to give up the free agency years

[spinowner]

 

No pitcher wants to play with bad defense behind him and every pitcher wants to pitch with good defense behind him.  Lock them up and then work on pitching.

It's not just fielding. FA pitchers will want to go to teams that excel at everything but pitching. They get lots of playing time because they are needed and they get lots of support. Locking up a roster with good hitters, good fielders, and good baserunners means that pitchers will want to come here, which means they'll be more likely to sign at a lower salary level here than elsewhere.

[gocgo]

 

Did you read the blogs vanimal supplied from Fangraphs, and their analysis of these deals and why they either aren't happening, or need to be MUCH LARGER to happen?

Based on that, do you think Rosario is the guy to try to lock up now?

[howieramone2]

 

I fear it might already be too late to get a decent discount. The incentives for Buxton to sign such a deal are melting away. His chances of not having an MLB career at this point are down to injury risk.

He didn't become a world beater until after the All-Star break. Plenty of time.

[kellyvance]

Buxton may be the best center fielder is baseball. Of course you try to lock him up. Every team needs a bell cow power hitter at no. 4 in the line up. So you lock up Sano too, with maybe an incentive laden clause about maintaining a certain weight. .  There will be hiccups, but he is a guy that can carry a team for a couple of weeks when hot.  Rosario is a great player, great power and a good OF, but his main attraction is that he is clutch. I think you lock up Berrios too. He will only get better. I'd add locking up Keps and Doze. These guys form a core that is solid as anyone's. I'd take a look at where Gordon is before committing to Polanco, but he has shown that he is a real solid hitter if streaky.

 

Twins have a solid core of position players. They really need pitching. I mean, as in desperately need a #1 guy. Santana and Berrios are really #2 and #3 guys. I hope they sign someone that can be a stopper in the off season. And bring back Brandon as a FA acquisition. 

[Shane Wahl]

I would sign all three, and in this order: Buxton, Sano, Rosario.

 

Rosario is mildly expendable because of Wade down in the minors who should be a September call next year. 

 

That said, I would throw hefty money at all of them. 

[jimmer]

 

Buxton may be the best center fielder is baseball. Of course you try to lock him up.

 

The best center fielder in baseball is TROUT.  Also the best overall player.

 

Buxton was, however,very much the best defensive outfielder this year and yeah, we should lock him up sooner rather than latter.  I'd be happy if they waited another season though, to see if the 2nd half hitting sticks and he doesn't destroy himself playing recklessly.

Edited October 12, 2017 by jimmer

[IaFan1]

I would try to sign Rosario first.  5 yr deal. With guys like, Rooker, Wade, Kiriloff and Baddoo working their way up I don't see any need to go any longer than that. That doesn't mean I don't think Rosario isn't going to be special. He might turn out to be the best of the three.  The Twins have a tradition of signing the guy they believe they can build the franchise around to a lucrative long term deal. Like with Puckett ,Knoblauch & Mauer. This is where I struggle. Should it be Sano. Or Buxton. Or Both? I'd like to see both signed for 7+ years. I'd even go 10 years on Buxton. But will both be realistic for the Twins? Probably not. If I have to choose, I'd go with Buxton. I'm like some others and am not sure Sano will be motivated to stay in shape if he gets a huge deal. I guess I'd try and sign him along with Buxton. But if he declines just see where your at a couple of years from now. He could always be traded at that point.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Based on that, do you think Rosario is the guy to try to lock up now?

 

I'd say he's the most likely to take it, yes. But, I don't know his personality at all so I don't know if he would. 

 

edit: most likely of the hitters. I think Berrios takes a deal, but it is waaaaaaay to risky to do that with a pitcher, imo.

Edited October 13, 2017 by Mike Sixel