Article: Decision On Paul Molitor Looming

[yarnivek1972]

I thought they would replace Allen.

Nothing stops them from making a change early next season if the results aren’t where Falvine believes they should be.

[David HK]

Oh, please, God, no....

 

To quote a well-known Twin, "this sucks right now."

[David HK]

Dang it, he cost plenty of games this year, (and last year, and the year before), with awful lineups and mind-numbing in-game management.  Gee, maybe the Twinks would have had home field in that playoff if not for games given away during the season.

 

I have not the time nor the wherewithal to go through all the game threads, but I do remember countless times, after a loss, when the "this one's on Molly" quotes were abundant.

 

This sucks right now.  And it'll suck next year, too.

[h2oface]

 

Well they did get the team to the playoffs. That hasn't happened for years. Besides some of the staff have already been replaced.

 

Well... they did improve all of 2 games in two years. From 83 wins to 85 wins. On pace for another game improvement next year?

 

If 2016 was an aberration, as many want to suggest, and I will say it is for the benefit of the doubt, then the progress has still been very minimal for two years.

Edited October 6, 2017 by h2oface

[mikelink45]

Yes - hire him again.  I am not anxious for a new genius when the team has come together under his leadership.  I like some continuity for a young team.

[jimmer]

Congrats to Paul Molitor.   Well deserved new contract!

Edited October 6, 2017 by jimmer

[drock2190]

I guarantee there is a portion of the fan base that would be unhappy with the manager whoever he is. 

 

Molitor did fine with his decisions. The players, usually the bullpen didnt do their job.

[prouster]

Congrats to Molitor. Now let's see how he does with a (more) competent pitching staff.

[jimmer]

 

Congrats to Molitor. Now let's see how he does with a (more) competent pitching staff.

To be more competent they had to be competent first :-)

 

The overall pitching staff was 11th out of 15 AL teams in FIP and WAR.

The rotation was 10th out of 15 AL teams in FIP and WAR and 12th in IP.

The bullpen was 11th out of 15 AL teams in FIP and 13th in WAR.

Edited October 6, 2017 by jimmer

[Danchat]

This was the right move to make. Molitor had a squad that was falling apart at the end of July and they pulled themselves back into shape and made the playoffs. Buxton melted down in April, but he figured things out. Polanco had a meltdown of his own in July, but then something in his head clicked. Berrios was just garbage in 2016 and he rebounded back to where we'd though he might be. I don't know if Molitor was responsible for any of these, but so many players took steps forward through 2017 and I have to give the manager some credit for it.

 

Don't get me wrong though - the incessant sacrifice bunting, poor bullpen usage (yes, he had poor options, but there were certain points of complete ineptitude, like using lefties wrong, leaving a pitcher in too long and allowing a runner on at the start of an inning, using Belisle (early season) / Pressly / Rogers at the wrong times), and relatively poor lineups (I will still not get over Gimenez in the #4 spot), Molitor has a lot to improve. But he deserves more chances to figure these things out.

[prouster]

To be more competent they had to be competent first :-)

 

The overall pitching staff was 11th out of 15 AL teams in FIP and WAR.

The rotation was 10th out of 15 AL teams in FIP and WAR and 12th in IP.

The bullpen was 11th out of 15 AL teams in FIP and 13th in WAR.

Right. What I meant was, "more competent than what they had this year." So (relatively) competent would have been more accurate.

[Squirrel]

Per LEN3, whole staff is back too. Kind of surprising.

I'm not a Molitor fan but I'd have been okay one way or the othe, but the entire coaching staff? Really? Hmmm.

[Deduno Abides]

To be more competent they had to be competent first :-)

 

The overall pitching staff was 11th out of 15 AL teams in FIP and WAR.

The rotation was 10th out of 15 AL teams in FIP and WAR and 12th in IP.

The bullpen was 11th out of 15 AL teams in FIP and 13th in WAR.

 

I know, lazy me, but has anyone checked out a comparison between the first half staff and the second half staff? It seems like a much better staff, with a lot of different pitchers. Second half Berrios > first half Hughes; second half Colon > first half Santiago; second half Gibson > first half Gibson; second half Hildenberger > first half Tonkin; second half Matt Belisle >> first half Bat-a-mile; even second half Slegers > first half Wilks, among others.

[luckylager]

Does Molitor deserve another year? I've never been a big fan, but yes, he definitely does. The team does seem to be on his side. I'd like to see what happens with a beefed up bullpen.  Short leash, but I'm onboard. 

[DocBauer]

I would have been perfectly fine if the new braintrust had just felt they needed a new direction. It would only make sense if they did. I'm very content with this decision. I know there are two sides on opposite sides of the aisle here, but I think it's the right move for various reasons.

 

The radio staff was talking recently about managers in baseball, various moves expected to happen or already announced, etc. And they were talking about managers who had NEVER been a manager before at ANY level. Of course, they mentioned that about Molitor, and I had almost forgotten that fact regarding him. Does being a manager previously, or not, at the ML or milb level, indicate you can or can't do the job? No. But I think it is a pertinent point.

 

In his 3 season's, Molitor has lead the Twins...not going to go in to specifics, to a disastrous season, an almost playoff team, and a playoff team. Personally, I think he's showing real growth as the head man, and would argue he made much better choices the second half of the season.

 

A few points:

 

1] This team never quit, loved to play, seemed to believe in themselves.

 

2] We complain, at times, about the development of young players. But we saw actual improvement and development amongst the young players this season. We saw patience with guys struggling at times. And we even saw a greater reliance on some young players the second half of the season.

 

3] Lineup construction has been a bit of a debate. But there are lots of ways to construct a roster and how to use it. I didn't always agree with some lineups, but I usually saw method in the madness. While there is room for growth in certain areas, overall, this was a fine defensive team, a quality and highly productive offensive team with balanced production.

 

4] With holes in the staff, this team reached 85 wins and the post season. If you want to argue they could have won a few more with a different manager, go ahead, I will respect your opinion. But to reach 85W while still needing some upgrades doesn't speak to utilizing what you have...despite some debatable choices here and there...nothing I could say would convince anyone.

 

Molitor still has some things to learn to be better at. I suspect he will. But another upgrade in the rotation, another quality RP or two and maybe one more solid bat could make him look a whole lot smarter as well.

[old nurse]

 

there are entire threads on the site dedicated to this, and yes, they led the American League in sacrifice bunts, and that doesn't count all the failed attempts....

White Sox 35, Rangers 27, Twins 26. That is not including all of the failed attempts by the Rangers and WHite Sox.  League average was 18. Over 6261 PA, sacrifice bunts are minimal

[iastfan112]

Between the improvement from last to this year and the success down the stretch leading to the playoffs the optics would've been too terrible to not bring him back.

[Thrylos]

Here is my take:

 

a. By all evidence available out there, the Twins offered Molitor an one year contract for 2018

b. Molitor is the second oldest manager in the majors (t-w/Showalter)

c. If one can praise Molitor as the leader of the 2017 team, he/she should also credit him with the 2016 debacle.

d. I think that this is a face saving move from all parties involved and will conclude with Molitor retiring &  accepting another position in the organization, a few more coaches (Allen, & Vavra for starters) not returning and a full blown coaching search.

[Thrylos]

 

Between the improvement from last to this year and the success down the stretch leading to the playoffs the optics would've been too terrible to not bring him back.

 

That argument could had been valid if Molitor did not manage the 2016 Twins.  He was the manager of the worst franchise team in MN ever.

[h2oface]

 

Here is my take:

 

a. By all evidence available out there, the Twins offered Molitor an one year contract for 2018

b. Molitor is the second oldest manager in the majors (t-w/Showalter)

c. If one can praise Molitor as the leader of the 2017 team, he/she should also credit him with the 2016 debacle.

d. I think that this is a face saving move from all parties involved and will conclude with Molitor retiring &  accepting another position in the organization, a few more coaches (Allen, & Vavra for starters) not returning and a full blown coaching search.

 

The perfect scenario.

[beckmt]

I am fine if it is a one year deal, I did not want 3 years, which I thought he would get. This looks like an unfair stopgap, since I do not see the next wave of FA signings and new players until 2019. 

This also would be the end of the Joe Mauer contract, and Jake Mauer is considered by far the best of the Twins minor league managers. that could be a plan.

[Tom Froemming]

 

White Sox 35, Rangers 27, Twins 26. That is not including all of the failed attempts by the Rangers and WHite Sox.  League average was 18. Over 6261 PA, sacrifice bunts are minimal

That's the number of successful sacrifices. B-Ref has the number of attempts:

 

58-White Sox

53-Twins

40-Rangers

40-Blue Jays

AL average was 32.

[ashbury]

Over 6261 PA, sacrifice bunts are minimal

Over half of PA are with the bases empty. About 30% of PA are with two out. There's some overlap there, but with only 1135 PA in a man-on-first-only situation this year, taking away 30% of those leaves you with a much smaller denominator for your purposes. And that doesn't take into account situations unfavorable for bunting such as being ahead or behind by several runs.

[ashbury]

That's the number of successful sacrifices. B-Ref has the number of attempts:

 

58-White Sox

53-Twins

40-Rangers

40-Blue Jays

AL average was 32.

So the problem is less the frequency, and more the poor rate of success. Looks like the Twins had more *failed* sacrifices than some teams had *attempts*.

[nicksaviking]

That's the number of successful sacrifices. B-Ref has the number of attempts:

 

58-White Sox

53-Twins

40-Rangers

40-Blue Jays

AL average was 32.

If the Twins successful sac bunt attempts is worse than their successful stolen base percentage, why not just go with straight steals?

 

Of all the sac attempts, there sure better have been none that involved moving over Buxton and Buxton alone.

[jmlease1]

I'm fine with Molitor coming back. He showed willingness to get on-board with the new regime's methods of doing things, which is hugely important. I don't expect him or any manager to simply be a yes-man, but if you're constantly at odds it's not going to work.

 

I don't always love Molitor's in-game strategy or bullpen useage, but I say that about most managers. It's easy to do from the couch, and it's never going to be "perfect". He does fine and seems to handle all of the intangible stuff for the club well. Frankly, he's shown more flexibility than most managers out there with his levels of baseball experience, which I think is a major point in his favor.

 

2 year deal would be appropriate, 3 year deal would be ok with me. I'd be surprised if Molitor settled for 1, doubt team would go over 3.

[Darius]

Bring him back, by all means. He's doing something right.

 

But, a priority this offseason should be significant time spent discussing philosophy in-game (lineups, bunting, bullpen management, pinch hitting, etc).

[drjim]

I also endorse a meeting between Molitor and the front office about bullpen management. They need to explain to him how to simultaneously leave starters in longer so he doesn't blow out the bullpen, but also pull starters quicker so they don't blow the game before the bullpen is summoned.

[old nurse]

 

Over half of PA are with the bases empty. About 30% of PA are with two out. There's some overlap there, but with only 1135 PA in a man-on-first-only situation this year, taking away 30% of those leaves you with a much smaller denominator for your purposes. And that doesn't take into account situations unfavorable for bunting such as being ahead or behind by several runs.

In each of those other plate appearance a decision had to be made on how to go about doing business.  If those complaining about the bunting wish to show the magnitude  of the problem with some data it would be helpful   . In terms of the directions given to a batter, there were over 6000 decisions that Molitor made

[yarnivek1972]

Here is my take:

 

a. By all evidence available out there, the Twins offered Molitor an one year contract for 2018

b. Molitor is the second oldest manager in the majors (t-w/Showalter)

c. If one can praise Molitor as the leader of the 2017 team, he/she should also credit him with the 2016 debacle.

d. I think that this is a face saving move from all parties involved and will conclude with Molitor retiring & accepting another position in the organization, a few more coaches (Allen, & Vavra for starters) not returning and a full blown coaching search.

Aren’t Dusty Baker and Terry Collins still managing somewhere? Those guys are both way older than Molitor. I think there’s one more. Bochy maybe?