Article: Decision On Paul Molitor Looming

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Here is my take:

 

a. By all evidence available out there, the Twins offered Molitor an one year contract for 2018

b. Molitor is the second oldest manager in the majors (t-w/Showalter)

c. If one can praise Molitor as the leader of the 2017 team, he/she should also credit him with the 2016 debacle.

d. I think that this is a face saving move from all parties involved and will conclude with Molitor retiring & accepting another position in the organization, a few more coaches (Allen, & Vavra for starters) not returning and a full blown coaching search.

interesting, seems plausible but how would one go about orchestrating this devious plot?

[Florida Loggerman]

whats the simple explantion of Insantity:   doing the same thing over and over again and expecting things to actually become Different?????  we have a new pair of young front office people, GM & Player Personnel  and what are we gong to do, of course we are, we are going to continue doing the same thing over and over again, and next year at this time, when it's ugly once again, oh crap, maybe the Twins should have done like the owners and front office of the now fastest most improved team in the MLB, the Astros, who's the Astro's current mgr,???? nobldy knows this young man, A J Hinch, new life new blood new direction results, 2=0 already pounding the Red Sox, 

[Mr. Brooks]

If the Twins successful sac bunt attempts is worse than their successful stolen base percentage, why not just go with straight steals?

 

Of all the sac attempts, there sure better have been none that involved moving over Buxton and Buxton alone.

A failed SB attempt costs you an out AND the baserunner.

A failed sac bunt attempt only costs you an out.

So a straight success % comparison doesn't quite work, you have to give extra weight to the caught stealing.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

A failed SB attempt costs you an out AND the baserunner.

A failed sac bunt attempt only costs you an out.

So a straight success % comparison doesn't quite work, you have to give extra weight to the caught stealing.

depends on the situation, possible, though unlikely, for a double play on the sac attempt.

 

For the sake of the discussion here, it all depends on the discussions Molitor and Levine have had. Do they agree on the strategy and tactics based on the data?

 

I'm not sure they do, though that might be some wishcasting on my part. To me the data says station to station is the highest likelihood to score multiple runs in an inning/game/season. That's not to say you should never steal, just be selective.

 

That is to say should almost never bunt. It's almost always a wasted out, even with Buxtons fastest right handed home to first time.

Edited October 7, 2017 by Sconnie

[h2oface]

interesting, seems plausible but how would one go about orchestrating this devious plot?

It is like a qualifying offer, except a hell of a lot cheaper. The plot has already ben executed. Molitor is taking his sweet time. He may not like the 1 year offer. It would seem that if he is thinking about it this long, that there is a good chance he will not accept and then the Twins didn't fire him, they didn't not make him an offer, and they can move on gracefully with the least amount of guff from fans if he makes the decision, and not them.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

It is like a qualifying offer, except a hell of a lot cheaper. The plot has already ben executed. Molitor is taking his sweet time. He may not like the 1 year offer. It would seem that if he is thinking about it this long, that there is a good chance he will not accept and then the Twins didn't fire him, they didn't not make him an offer, and they can move on gracefully with the least amount of guff from fans if he makes the decision, and not them.

im tracking with you, it seems more plausible with what, 36-ish hours passed that this may well be what's happening.

 

I still don't get the mechanics. Low ball offer leaves a lot of evidence and of course the counter offers and etc"

 

A discussion with PM that goes "look Paul, we're making you an offer to save face for all of us, here's how it's gonna go...." has all kinds of issues, not least of which is Falvine trying to change the organization so offering the guy a different job in the org follows the same logic, and carries all of the same "club" mentality.

[drjim]

It is like a qualifying offer, except a hell of a lot cheaper. The plot has already ben executed. Molitor is taking his sweet time. He may not like the 1 year offer. It would seem that if he is thinking about it this long, that there is a good chance he will not accept and then the Twins didn't fire him, they didn't not make him an offer, and they can move on gracefully with the least amount of guff from fans if he makes the decision, and not them.

Lowballing would be worse from the front office than just moving on.

[nicksaviking]

The silence on the subject is starting to get lengthy.

[old nurse]

 

whats the simple explantion of Insantity:   doing the same thing over and over again and expecting things to actually become Different?????  we have a new pair of young front office people, GM & Player Personnel  and what are we gong to do, of course we are, we are going to continue doing the same thing over and over again, and next year at this time, when it's ugly once again, oh crap, maybe the Twins should have done like the owners and front office of the now fastest most improved team in the MLB, the Astros, who's the Astro's current mgr,???? nobldy knows this young man, A J Hinch, new life new blood new direction results, 2=0 already pounding the Red Sox, 

Arizona knew him well enough to fire him because the team was losing. Kirk Gibson  (an old for a manager type) takes over and Arizona does a worst to first.

[Rosterman]

I doubt it will be a one-year contract. Even a two-year puts Molitor on the bubble as absorbing a year isn't beyond the budget or front office needs. A three-year would keep him in place for at least another season, sink or swim.

 

I'm more interested in the workings on the coaching side of things, and the shakeup (if any) of the minor league staffs.

[h2oface]

 

Lowballing would be worse from the front office than just moving on.

 

Nobody said anything about lowballing Molitor. Unless you consider one year a lowball. The money is probably in line with mediocre managers that took a team from 83 wins to record 103 losses (59 wins) in the span of one year, and then back to just a net 2 game gain over two years at 85 wins. One year is not lowballing. He has not earned anything more (if that), as much as a manager likes to have more than one year.

 

This fascination with the improvement between 2016 and 2017 I find ridiculous. It is like bringing in your closer in the top of the 9th, handing him a 3 run lead, and he gives it up, loads the bases throws meat that results in a grand slam and 1 run behind...... and then he gets the win with a walk off two run homer by the home team in the bottom of the ninth. To me, it is a performance that is hardly something to get excited about.

Edited October 8, 2017 by h2oface

[Dozier's Glorious Hair]

 

Nobody said anything about lowballing Molitor. Unless you consider one year a lowball. The money is probably in line with mediocre managers that took a team from 83 wins to record 103 losses (59 wins) in the span of one year, and then back to just a net 2 game gain over two years at 85 wins. One year is not lowballing. He has not earned anything more (if that), as much as a manager likes to have more than one year.

 

This fascination with the improvement between 2016 and 2017 I find ridiculous. It is like bringing in your closer in the top of the 9th, handing him a 3 run lead, and he gives it up, loads the bases throws meat that results in a grand slam and 1 run behind...... and then he gets the win with a walk off two run homer by the home team in the bottom of the ninth. To me, it is a performance that is hardly something to get excited about.

 

Ignoring the Twins' record in the four seasons before Molitor took over I find ridiculous. But that's just me.

[Deduno Abides]

Here is my take:

 

a. By all evidence available out there, the Twins offered Molitor an one year contract for 2018

b. Molitor is the second oldest manager in the majors (t-w/Showalter)

c. If one can praise Molitor as the leader of the 2017 team, he/she should also credit him with the 2016 debacle.

d. I think that this is a face saving move from all parties involved and will conclude with Molitor retiring & accepting another position in the organization, a few more coaches (Allen, & Vavra for starters) not returning and a full blown coaching search.

I'm starting to think Falvey had no choice but to make an offer to Molitor, because he wouldn't have been able to explain letting him go to his boss, Jim Pohlad. A one year deal with a transition plan might make the best sense for the team, but it's probably hard for a competitive person known as The Ignitor to get his head around the idea of working for a year, knowing he'll be done at the end of it. He must believe that he is the right person to make the Twins champions and probably has a hard time accepting that his role would be to set up someone else as a champion. Edited October 8, 2017 by Deduno Abides

[h2oface]

 

Ignoring the Twins' record in the four seasons before Molitor took over I find ridiculous. But that's just me.

 

Then lets look at it. From 2011 to 2014, the Twins won 63, 66, 66, 70 games. (The Astros, 56, 55, 51, 70). Many on these boards thought that the Twins should have improved to 74-76 wins in 2014. 2014 ended with the Astros and Twins having identical records of 70-92. The Twins were getting better each year, no? Very slowly. Then, in 2015, an improvement that had been in the works (surely, right?) and the Twins new manager inherited that, and improved 13 games to 83-79. Probably unfair to continue to look at the Astros as a comparison from 2015 on. I don't know why, but let's drop that. I still find the 59-103 2016 hard to ignore. And I don't, just as I wasn't ignoring the history of 2011-2014, even if it was not reviewed, again, here. So now it was, again.

 

The point to me is, that Molitor is having difficulty accepting the offer of employment, for whatever reasons. It seems to be his hand to play, and there was a net gain of 2 games from 2015 to 2017. That is history.

Edited October 8, 2017 by h2oface

[old nurse]

 

Then lets look at it. From 2011 to 2014, the Twins won 63, 66, 66, 70 games. (The Astros, 56, 55, 51, 70). Many on these boards thought that the Twins should have improved to 74-76 wins in 2014. 2014 ended with the Astros and Twins having identical records of 70-92. The Twins were getting better each year, no? Very slowly. Then, in 2015, an improvement that had been in the works (surely, right?) and the Twins new manager inherited that, and improved 13 games to 83-79. Probably unfair to continue to look at the Astros as a comparison from 2015 on. I don't know why, but let's drop that. I still find the 59-103 2016 hard to ignore. And I don't, just as I wasn't ignoring the history of 2011-2014, even if it was not reviewed, again, here. So now it was, again.

 

The point to me is, that Molitor is having difficulty accepting the offer of employment, for whatever reasons. It seems to be his hand to play, and there was a net gain of 2 games from 2015 to 2017. That is history.

History would also say that over three years Molitor's teams have a net gain of 15 games over the previous manager's last season.  Of course that would also imply that a team's record is due to only the actions of the manager.

[Dozier's Glorious Hair]

 

Then lets look at it. From 2011 to 2014, the Twins won 63, 66, 66, 70 games. (The Astros, 56, 55, 51, 70). Many on these boards thought that the Twins should have improved to 74-76 wins in 2014. 2014 ended with the Astros and Twins having identical records of 70-92. The Twins were getting better each year, no? Very slowly. Then, in 2015, an improvement that had been in the works (surely, right?) and the Twins new manager inherited that, and improved 13 games to 83-79. Probably unfair to continue to look at the Astros as a comparison from 2015 on. I don't know why, but let's drop that. I still find the 59-103 2016 hard to ignore. And I don't, just as I wasn't ignoring the history of 2011-2014, even if it was not reviewed, again, here. So now it was, again.

 

The point to me is, that Molitor is having difficulty accepting the offer of employment, for whatever reasons. It seems to be his hand to play, and there was a net gain of 2 games from 2015 to 2017. That is history.

 

Yeah, I really don't know what you're talking about in regards to the Astros, but it seems what you're trying to do is say the 13-win improvement from 2014 to 2015 shouldn't count towards Molitor's "net win" tally. Sorry, but you can't reasonably do that. If you insist on using "net wins" as a way to measure a manager's abilities, the correct number (as old nurse pointed out) is +15.   

[drjim]

Nobody said anything about lowballing Molitor. Unless you consider one year a lowball. The money is probably in line with mediocre managers that took a team from 83 wins to record 103 losses (59 wins) in the span of one year, and then back to just a net 2 game gain over two years at 85 wins. One year is not lowballing. He has not earned anything more (if that), as much as a manager likes to have more than one year.

 

This fascination with the improvement between 2016 and 2017 I find ridiculous. It is like bringing in your closer in the top of the 9th, handing him a 3 run lead, and he gives it up, loads the bases throws meat that results in a grand slam and 1 run behind...... and then he gets the win with a walk off two run homer by the home team in the bottom of the ninth. To me, it is a performance that is hardly something to get excited about.

A 1 year offer is a lowball offer. If that's all the front office is willing to offer, they'd be better off moving on.

[yarnivek1972]

I’m curious to know where some are getting the idea that the Twins offered Molitor a one year deal. The strib and LEN 3 says they are working toward a multi-year deal and likely at this point discussing the rest of the staff.

[drjim]

I’m curious to know where some are getting the idea that the Twins offered Molitor a one year deal. The strib and LEN 3 says they are working toward a multi-year deal and likely at this point discussing the rest of the staff.

Wishful thinking?

[h2oface]

 

Yeah, I really don't know what you're talking about in regards to the Astros, but it seems what you're trying to do is say the 13-win improvement from 2014 to 2015 shouldn't count towards Molitor's "net win" tally. Sorry, but you can't reasonably do that. If you insist on using "net wins" as a way to measure a manager's abilities, the correct number (as old nurse pointed out) is +15.   

 

I think you know what I was getting at comparing the Twins progression to the Astros...... but if not, I can't help you. We can go ahead and include 2015 and say +15 games in 3 years. Fine. I think much more was expected. I know I did. I know I certainly didn't expect a 103 loss season in 2016. We will continue to disagree on our opinion about keeping Molitor, and we with both live with the eventual result, whatever it is.

Edited October 8, 2017 by h2oface

[Loosey]

Does Molitor want to continue managing?  I assume he is a relatively wealthy person from his playing days and is still pretty young.  As much as I love baseball, if I were in my 50's, retired and rich I wouldn't want to manage a baseball team.  As cool as it would be for while, the season is long.  And it is during the best months of Minnesota.  Maybe he really is trying to decide do I want to commit to 3-4 more years of traveling every week from March-October.  He could be doing a lot of other things that might be more fun.  But he might just love being around the game and want even more years.  

[Twins33]

Does Molitor want to continue managing?  I assume he is a relatively wealthy person from his playing days and is still pretty young.  As much as I love baseball, if I were in my 50's, retired and rich I wouldn't want to manage a baseball team.  As cool as it would be for while, the season is long.  And it is during the best months of Minnesota.  Maybe he really is trying to decide do I want to commit to 3-4 more years of traveling every week from March-October.  He could be doing a lot of other things that might be more fun.  But he might just love being around the game and want even more years.

 

Molitor is 61, in case you didn't know that. I agree with the rest of what you said though. How much longer does he want to do this? I think most retire in their early 60s at the latest. Guys like Jim Leyland seem like the exception.

[yarnivek1972]

Does Molitor want to continue managing? I assume he is a relatively wealthy person from his playing days and is still pretty young. As much as I love baseball, if I were in my 50's, retired and rich I wouldn't want to manage a baseball team. As cool as it would be for while, the season is long. And it is during the best months of Minnesota. Maybe he really is trying to decide do I want to commit to 3-4 more years of traveling every week from March-October. He could be doing a lot of other things that might be more fun. But he might just love being around the game and want even more years.

You do realize Molitor is over 60, right? You said, “in my 50s”.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

The point to me is, that Molitor is having difficulty accepting the offer of employment, for whatever reasons. It seems to be his hand to play, ....

This is a different narrative than how this line of discussion started. Initially you posited that Falvine was trying to save face but get away from Molitor.

 

Now it's all in Molitor's hands?

 

Agreed, the time this is taking to work through indicates a sticking point in what should be a pretty routine contract negotiation.

 

As others have said, at this point I believe Molitor might be mulling over retirement.

Edited October 9, 2017 by Sconnie

[Loosey]

 

You do realize Molitor is over 60, right? You said, “in my 50s”.

He is even older than I realized.  I was thinking he was like late 50's.  Even more reason to ask the question, does he want to continue the grind of a full season?  Being the spring training guy who gets to go the Florida in February and March sounds much better than managing every. single. day.  But maybe this is something he loves to do.

[old nurse]

 

I think you know what I was getting at comparing the Twins progression to the Astros...... but if not, I can't help you. We can go ahead and include 2015 and say +15 games in 3 years. Fine. I think much more was expected. I know I did. I know I certainly didn't expect a 103 loss season in 2016. We will continue to disagree on our opinion about keeping Molitor, and we with both live with the eventual result, whatever it is.

Houston had a 4 year head start at being mediocre, 2 year head start at being really bad. 2 years ago the  playofs, last year they missed the playoffs. So, in 2019 the Twins darn well be really good  according to the Houston model.

[old nurse]

 

 

Does Molitor want to continue managing?  I assume he is a relatively wealthy person from his playing days and is still pretty young.  As much as I love baseball, if I were in my 50's, retired and rich I wouldn't want to manage a baseball team.  As cool as it would be for while, the season is long.  And it is during the best months of Minnesota.  Maybe he really is trying to decide do I want to commit to 3-4 more years of traveling every week from March-October.  He could be doing a lot of other things that might be more fun.  But he might just love being around the game and want even more years.  

Molitor grossed 40 million as a player. Whatever taxes, agents, early partying, child support and ex wives took would be anyone's guess.  Like many others, being around baseball has been his life. Beeing a competitor, he stayed in the game.

[drjim]

I would be really surprised if he was weighing retirement. I doubt he wants to go for another decade, but he has lead this squad to a nice turnaround, got into the playoffs and is establishing a nice foundation for the next couple of years. Why would he walk away now? He's not Moses.

[h2oface]

 

This is a different narrative than how this line of discussion started. Initially you posited that Falvine was trying to save face but get away from Molitor.

Now it's all in Molitor's hands?

Agreed, the time this is taking to work through indicates a sticking point in what should be a pretty routine contract negotiation.

As others have said, at this point I believe Molitor might be mulling over retirement.

 

Time. 

 

Right, initially I quoted and posted, and agreed with Thyros' take. I still do. And IF it is a one year offer...... like a qualifying offer..... it save's face, and now it is up to Molitor to accept or reject (or to counter and negotiate), and in his hands... his ball park. When there was no word of it on Friday press day, as suggested when those who like to be first (and maybe correct, maybe not) had reported, and quite a bit of time has now passed, it is getting to be quite interesting, eh? It is kind of like buying a house. The offer has been made. If one does anything other than completely accept the offer, and makes one slight change, they have rejected the offer and made the seller an offer, and there is still no contract. And so forth.

 

Perhaps he is contemplating retirement, which was also part of the 4 point Thyros take. Perhaps he is negotiating and there is some countering going on, and he wants more time or money. So we should know this week, one would think. Sooner than never.

Edited October 9, 2017 by h2oface

[drjim]

I'm starting to think LEN3 might have jumped the gun a little in saying the whole staff will be back. They won't announce an extension for Molitor until the coaching staff is in place.

 

If there really was a problem with Molitor and he might not be coming back, I think some stuff would be leaking to test the waters and prepare the fanbase.