FA Starting Pitching List....

[Mike Sixel]

 

Unfortunately, too often in the past this was true. I don't think we have enough information yet to say the same of our current FO. I hope they have a different MO.

 

After 1 year, which is not enough data to know, they spend even less....

[Physics Guy]

 

After 1 year, which is not enough data to know, they spend even less....

Except it was the prudent thing to do in my opinion.  They took the year to evaluate the system and decide what they needed to do.  The fact that they traded for Garcia during the season should be a good indicator that they realize they need to add a starter.  I don't mind that they didn't spend big last year.  Rich Hill was the only starter I would have contemplated and he was resigning with LA.  Adding a bullpen arm is the only thing I would have done differently, and that is with hindsight. 

[Major League Ready]

Many of the opinions here about players are well supported by fact/statistics.  That’s rarely true when it comes to spending.  We just get "of course they can afford X"  There are few sources of financial data but if Forbes is to be believed, the Twins net profitability is in line with the rest of the league.  The one exception in recent years has been Detroit.  I would say Forbes is a credible source.   It would sure be nice to see some supporting documentation if people are going to insist the issue is that the twins are cheap.   We could actually have a meaningful conversation if we understood the viable financial parameters. 

 

Why exactly should we expect to outbid teams with far greater revenue?   I would love to hear why this is a reasonable premise in financial / business terms.  

[gunnarthor]

 

Unfortunately, too often in the past this was true. I don't think we have enough information yet to say the same of our current FO. I hope they have a different MO.

I think we do. Falvey came from Cleveland the year they went to the WS. Their WS team had something like 4 WAR of production from free agents. They were built by trades and homegrown talent. That's perfectly in line with what the Twins have done in the past. 

 

In an interview, Thad Levine did not sound like a GM who knows that payroll would increase. Emphasis added.

 

"We all know where the Minnesota's payroll ranks among the 30 clubs. We're not going to be in the top 10, and we're fine with that. There's no excuses about the payroll. One thing that when Derek and I joined the organization, we kind of pulled back the curtain of what we did in Texas from a personnel standpoint—in the front office, in the analytics departments, and otherwise, and so did Cleveland, and we kind of juxtaposed that against what Minnesota was doing. I think at that point, we had a little bit of a revelation that maybe Minnesota, just from a sheer personnel and systems standpoint, was a little bit behind some other teams. And if we're acknowledging that we're going to be a little bit behind on the payroll, we tried to present to ownership—we shouldn't be behind on the infrastructure because if you're not spending on the field and also not spending off the field, outside of sheer dumb luck, I'm not sure how you're vanquishing foes, and our goal is to vanquish the foes.

We talked about—let's leave the payroll alone, but if you give us the latitude to spend more on systems than on people, then we can be extremely competitive. And ownership was 100 percent on board with it. They have been exceptionally supportive of that. We have a four-man staff right now, and I think that's just the tip of the iceberg. In light of the quality people we have in our organization, I think we're very confident that same group can bring more people of that ilk in, and I think if we have this event next year, I'd be shocked if we weren't talking about the department having two to four to eight more people involved in it. I'd say it's an area we're really, really investing in."

 

The Twins aren't going to change from the Ryan ways. We're still going to make cheap FA signings like Belisle and Breslow, we're going to make rule v picks and hope they pan out, we'll make waiver claims and we'll look at making trades. But the new FO isn't going to rely on FA for much of anything. The best we can hope for is another contract similar to Santana's contract.

[drjim]

Saying the Twins aren't going to be a top 10 payroll shouldn't be that controversial. Doesn't mean they can't bump a little.

 

I think Pohlad is probably being truthful here: http://www.twincities.com/2017/10/12/owner-jim-pohlad-on-brian-dozier-joe-mauer-and-how-the-twins-might-find-pitchers/

 

Would seem they have the flexibility to add a Lynn or Cobb if they desire, would be a manner of whether that is the style of Falvey and Levine or not.

[gunnarthor]

We'll see. Our highest payroll was about 113m although that was in 2011 and they probably dropped about 1-2m during the season in trades (Thome and Young were moved late in the season and were making over 8m combined). I'm expecting our opening day payroll to be around 110m this year. Higher than that and I would be pleasantly surprised. 

[kellyvance]

 

The Twins can't afford Darvish.

Pohlad has more money than Allstate

[gunnarthor]

 

Pohlad has more money than Allstate

Yep, and they keep it.

[laloesch]

 

Kohl Stewart is 10 times the prospect Dereck Rodriguez is, and Jorge and Slegers for that matter. Romero will most likely end up in the pen.

 

If Santiago would look at a one year make good deal I would consider it.  He had never been on the DL until this season. He's better than all but a handful of FA's. My first choice would be opening up the farm and making a trade. Flash Romero, Gonsalves, Gordon, or even one of our young but highly rated SS's. No reason to wait, our window appears to be 4-5 years starting now.

 

Stewart may have been hyped as THE prospect when he was drafted a few years ago, but he is quickly becoming a bust.  He could barely handle AA Chattanooga last season and wasn't even close to the best starter on his team.  Romero, Jorge, Gonsalves, Rodriguez and LIttell outpitched him.  

[Major League Ready]

 

That's what free agent pitchers cost. If you won't pay it, fold the franchise.

 

I guess the Indians should just fold their franchise.  Oakland, Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh, Kansas City and Milwaukee.  How many top free agents SPs have these teams signed? 

 

A couple years ago I put a breakdown on this site of how all the playoffs teams acquired their SPs.  Free agency had very little impact.  They were predominately drafted or traded for while still in MiLB or  or in a couple cases they had made it to the show but had not really proven themselves yet.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I guess the Indians should just fold their franchise.  Oakland, Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh, Kansas City and Milwaukee.  How many top free agents SPs have these teams signed? 

 

A couple years ago I put a breakdown on this site of how all the playoffs teams acquired their SPs.  Free agency had very little impact.  They were predominately drafted or traded for while still in MiLB or  or in a couple cases they had made it to the show but had not really proven themselves yet.

 

I guess the Indians should just fold their franchise.  Oakland, Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh, Kansas City and Milwaukee.  How many top free agents SPs have these teams signed? 

 

A couple years ago I put a breakdown on this site of how all the playoffs teams acquired their SPs.  Free agency had very little impact.  They were predominately drafted or traded for while still in MiLB or  or in a couple cases they had made it to the show but had not really proven themselves yet.

 

They also did not trade for a legit SP in the offseason or at the break.

 

Every year they don't have good pitching with Sano and Buxton is a year less their window is open. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

I guess the Indians should just fold their franchise.  Oakland, Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh, Kansas City and Milwaukee.  How many top free agents SPs have these teams signed? 

 

A couple years ago I put a breakdown on this site of how all the playoffs teams acquired their SPs.  Free agency had very little impact.  They were predominately drafted or traded for while still in MiLB or  or in a couple cases they had made it to the show but had not really proven themselves yet.

 

How many playoff series, other than KC who traded the number 4 prospect in baseball for two pitchers (think this FO will do that?)......have those teams won?

[drjim]

How many playoff series, other than KC who traded the number 4 prospect in baseball for two pitchers (think this FO will do that?)......have those teams won?

Outside of the largest markets, are there any examples of franchises buying aces and doing well either? Doesn't really seem that is the answer.

 

Probably not a sufficient reason to fold the franchise.

[Mr. Brooks]

Outside of the largest markets, are there any examples of franchises buying aces and doing well either? Doesn't really seem that is the answer.

 

Probably not a sufficient reason to fold the franchise.

Mike was talking about paying up for legit #3 or #4 starters, not aces.

 

Mike's fold the franchise comment was in response to someone dismissing FA completely as an avenue to improving the pitching.

[drjim]

Mike was talking about paying up for legit #3 or #4 starters, not aces.

 

Mike's fold the franchise comment was in response to someone dismissing FA completely as an avenue to improving the pitching.

I don't equate 3s and 4s as the same as top free agent starting pitchers, but fair enough.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Mike was talking about paying up for legit #3 or #4 starters, not aces.

Mike's fold the franchise comment was in response to someone dismissing FA completely as an avenue to improving the pitching.

 

Wait, that wasn't obvious, that was in reply to signing a number 3/4? thanks for the help!

[Major League Ready]

My bad MIke.  I did not understand you were talking about mid-rotation guys.  I have been on board that type of signing.  It's obviously realistic given we signed Santana and Nolasco not so long ago.  Regardless, Cleveland's template is the ideal approach, IMO.  They drafted well, developed their prospects, and made very smart trades for near ready talent that did not cost the farm.  I think Kansas City's approach assured a short window.  They sucked for 20 years, had 3 good years and now how long will they suck again. 

 

There is a very definite trend in the organizations that have hired business people with business educations.  They are intent on building via their farm system.  You notice that the Dodgers refused to  give up prime assets.  They would have been even better this year but they understood they will be better for several years by being patient.   I believe Falvey and Levine understand this premise.  Some of the participants here won't like their methodical approach.  Personally, I am very pleased with what I see from this FO.  We have enough talent in our system to be competitive for many years.  Now we need a couple players to reach their ceiling and a couple to surprise a bit like Kluber.  If that happens, we could be a contender for several years.

[USAFChief]

The Dodgers refused to give up prime assets?? How'd they get Darvish? Or their second baseman?

[Major League Ready]

 

The Dodgers refused to give up prime assets?? How'd they get Darvish? Or their second baseman?

Now you are using one instance instead of the numerous trade discussions they were involved.  You are using ONE rental player outside the top 50 to make your case when the context here is trading for a top SP with 3+ years of control.   Calhoun and a couple players outside their top 15 prospects is not even close to what it would cost for the names that have been thrown around here.

 

The trade for the 2nd baseman who’s name you can’t even remember is an example of them not trading away their best prospects.  They could have had Dozier who is the superior player but the Twins would not settle for DeLeon.  It was apparent the Dodgers were not high on him and they were unwilling to trade the type of prospects necessary to get Dozier or equivalent.

I think it’s very fair to say that the Dodger’s organization places a very high value on top prospects.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Regardless, Cleveland's template is the ideal approach, IMO.  They drafted well, developed their prospects, and made very smart trades for near ready talent that did not cost the farm.  I think Kansas City's approach assured a short window.  They sucked for 20 years, had 3 good years and now how long will they suck again. 

Nailed it. I do not want the Twins to emulate the Royals, as I think they backed into some of their success. They built a model of a dominant bullpen almost on accident.

 

I'm not against the Twins making a trade to shore up an immediate weakness (even a big trade) but looking to KC for inspiration is looking at results, not process in my opinion.