FA Starting Pitching List....

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The Giants will pick up the option, but I imagine he could be had for a relatively limited return.

Why do you imagine that?  If the Giants dealt Moore, wouldn't they need a replacement?  And wouldn't a 28 year old Moore on a 1 year deal, with a 2019 option, be pretty attractive on the FA market this winter?  They're not going to rebuild yet with all of their long-term commitments.

 

I mean, I don't think the Giants would need some elite return for Moore, obviously, but I don't think they'd have much interest in moving him for the Twins spare prospect parts either.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Bonus points for Cobb: he's been solid against the Yankees in his career.  2.99 ERA across 14 starts, and that includes a disastrous start against them in 2016 as he returned from TJ surgery.

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/split_stats.cgi?full=1&params=oppon%7CNYY%7Ccobbal01%7Cpitch%7CIP%7C

 

3.12 ERA in 5 starts at Yankee Stadium:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/split_stats.cgi?full=1&params=site%7CYankee%20Stad3%7Ccobbal01%7Cpitch%7CIP%7C

 

His teams are 2-0 behind him in postseason games too...

[drjim]

 

Why do you imagine that?  If the Giants dealt Moore, wouldn't they need a replacement?  And wouldn't a 28 year old Moore on a 1 year deal, with a 2019 option, be pretty attractive on the FA market this winter?  They're not going to rebuild yet with all of their long-term commitments.

 

I mean, I don't think the Giants would need some elite return for Moore, obviously, but I don't think they'd have much interest in moving him for the Twins spare prospect parts either.

 

I was thinking it wouldn't take Gordon, not that it would be a giveaway.

[drjim]

I would take a chance on Moore because he strikes me as a bounce back candidate, especially with an upgraded outfield defense, but he really hasn't been *that* good for a couple of years now.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I was thinking it wouldn't take Gordon, not that it would be a giveaway.

What do you think it would take to get Moore?  It wouldn't be Gordon, but I imagine it would take something that would hurt us in 2018, because the Giants would want help for 2018.  (Which is why they'll probably just roll the dice on Moore.)

[mikelink45]

Spend the year getting our minor leaguers into the league.  See how good they can be.  Improve the base then look for a FA if we need one in another year.  Not yet!

[howieramone2]

 

a.  I do not get the love for Cobb and esp. Lynne.  2017 numbers:

 

Lance Lynne (NL) 4.82 FIP, 7.4 K/9, 2.0 K/9, 1.23 WHIP (.244 BABIP)
Alex Cobb (AL) 4.16 FIP, 6.4 K/9, 2.9 K/BB, 1.22 WHIP (.282 BABIP)

Certain FA pitcher (AL only numbers, he pitched earlier in the season in the NL) 3.82 FIP, 5.9 K/9, 2.4 K/BB, 1.44 WHIP (.340 BABIP)

 

Hint: Why would you sign them and expect them to be good? 

 

b. If 34 and 35 year olds are "too old", so should be Ervin Santana

 

 

For this team to compete in the postseason next season, they will need at least 2 arms at the Berrios or better level.  Can one of them come within the organization (May, Rosario, Littel?)  I would not count on it for 2018.   So they need 2 outside of the organization.   In that list, only Darvish fits the bill.  So does Otani who is not listed.  Will they go after those 2?  I doubt it.

So they have to get those pitchers via trades...

If we are going to get 2 pitchers better than Berrios, might as well get 1 hitter better than Sano.

[howieramone2]

 

Gonsalves and Romero are great AAA depth for next year. They will both get a shot at some point, so I'm not too terribly worried there. The question is which 5 they go north with, and if they tender Gibson (and that really is the open spot in the rotation unless there is zero hope that May will be ready next spring), then I don't see how they will add a starter (and note, I want them to add a starter).

Tendering Gibson is a no brainer. He's still cheap, and if push comes to shove, tradeable. No way you can count on May even giving you 100 innings. 

[Vanimal46]

 

If we are going to get 2 pitchers better than Berrios, might as well get 1 hitter better than Sano.

 

I do think that should be a priority as well. Jimmer posted on another thread that Escobar and Sano produced identical defensive numbers, so they're not getting an upgrade letting Escobar take over 3B full-time. 

This lineup would be better off signing a slugging DH type to compliment Sano in the lineup.  

[Blake]

 

It might. Pitchers pace themselves differently if they know they're only going three, versus trying to go six-plus. Maybe for instance Santana warms up a little longer, and has command of his breaking pitch.

 

Of course that pace wouldn't be sustainable over a long season. But, as they say, you have all winter to rest up.

Add another foot back the mound and see if that solves some problems with pitching. If memory serves, during the "year of the pitcher" the mound was a foot higher than it currently is.

 

I have to believe that scouting and analytics have given a huge edge to hitters and going back to the taller pitching mound my be the only answer.

 

My .02.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I would take a chance on Moore because he strikes me as a bounce back candidate, especially with an upgraded outfield defense, but he really hasn't been *that* good for a couple of years now.

Yeah, the promise of Moore's early years might be gone (when he was the #1-2 prospect in MLB prior to 2012).  To be fair, he doesn't have much of a recent resume because surgery knocked out most of 2014 and 2015, but even before that with Tampa he was never a stud in MLB.

Guessing the Giants will be aiming for a repeat of 2016, when he was a tick above league average for a SP by ERA/FIP in 198 IP.

[howieramone2]

 

I do think that should be a priority as well. Jimmer posted on another thread that Escobar and Sano produced identical defensive numbers, so they're not getting an upgrade letting Escobar take over 3B full-time. 

This lineup would be better off signing a slugging DH type to compliment Sano in the lineup.  

After a 2/3 starting pitcher, my next pick up would be a primary DH. 

[gunnarthor]

 

What do you think it would take to get Moore?  It wouldn't be Gordon, but I imagine it would take something that would hurt us in 2018, because the Giants would want help for 2018.  (Which is why they'll probably just roll the dice on Moore.)

Why would the Giants want help for 2018? They were the worst team in baseball this year. Posey, Shark, Cueto, Cain, Belt, Crawford, Span and Pence will all be 30 or older next year. That was an old team whose window has closed (they did win a lot in their window!). But shouldn't they be moving toward a full rebuild? I can't imagine they think they can compete next year in the loaded AL West. And they have one of the worst farm systems in the majors right now.

 

So Moore, a pitcher who posted a negative WAR last year and put up a 76 ERA, has been bad for 40+ starts for the Giants and has seen his walk, strike outs and HR numbers move in the wrong direction, shouldn't cost much. Frankly, I'm not sure he has much trade value at all. If the Twins think they can improve him, sure, go for it. But he's an NL pitcher moving to the AL? If the cost is something like Travis Blankenhorn or such, fine. But it it's more than that, you don't do it. He's not a good pitcher anymore.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Why would the Giants want help for 2018? They were the worst team in baseball this year. Posey, Shark, Cueto, Cain, Belt, Crawford, Span and Pence will all be 30 or older next year. That was an old team whose window has closed (they did win a lot in their window!). But shouldn't they be moving toward a full rebuild? I can't imagine they think they can compete next year in the loaded AL West. And they have one of the worst farm systems in the majors right now.

 

So Moore, a pitcher who posted a negative WAR last year and put up a 76 ERA, has been bad for 40+ starts for the Giants and has seen his walk, strike outs and HR numbers move in the wrong direction, shouldn't cost much. Frankly, I'm not sure he has much trade value at all. If the Twins think they can improve him, sure, go for it. But he's an NL pitcher moving to the AL? If the cost is something like Travis Blankenhorn or such, fine. But it it's more than that, you don't do it. He's not a good pitcher anymore.

I am not saying Moore is going to fetch a ton in trade. I am saying they are unlikely to move him.

 

The Giants have a ton of long term money committed. They can't really rebuild right now, or if they did, it would be all about moving Bumgarner or Posey in a blockbuster. Moore for Blankenhorn doesn't really do anything to that end, it would be an unlikely first domino.

 

They are kind of in a recent Tigers/Angels situation. They still have a couple performing stars (Posey and Bumgarner), they could be in WC contention again next year with the right breaks.

[Otto von Ballpark]

If there is some specific payroll number they have to get/stay under, then I suppose you could see the Giants move Moore. Maybe like the Tigers and Cameron Maybin last winter? Or if they need to free the money to pursue someone else. (In which case, maybe the Twins should be pursuing the other guy too )

[Thrylos]

 

 

 

To get a pitcher at Berrios level it is going to take Kepler, Rosario or Polanco.

 

 

They need to build packages around Dozier, Santana, Vargas, Grossman, Granite, Park,  supplemented with prospects like Gonsalves, Gordon, Stewart, Palka etc.

 

For example: 

 

Santana + Dozier +? to the Mets for DeGrom + ?  might be a win-win situation.  The Mets would replace their oldest pitcher with someone who can mentor the rest and still have an excellent rotation, pending health.  They need a second baseman really badly.  The Twins get a guy who is a number 2 in any post-season team and a number 1 in many teams.

 

Then go out and see what it will take to get someone like Archer.  Would Gordon, Gonsalves, Jorge, as the core be enough?  If not, add a couple more names from above or someone like Gibson or Mejia.

 

This way, the Twins get 2 pitchers better than Berrios and get a rotation of Archer, DeGrom, Berrios, Gibson/Mejia, May/Romero, which looks like a post season rotation. 

 

 

[Thrylos]

 

If we are going to get 2 pitchers better than Berrios, might as well get 1 hitter better than Sano.

 

Can he pitch?  Last time I checked, hitting was not the problem...

[howieramone2]

 

They need to build packages around Dozier, Santana, Vargas, Grossman, Granite, Park,  supplemented with prospects like Gonsalves, Gordon, Stewart, Palka etc.

 

For example: 

 

Santana + Dozier +? to the Mets for DeGrom + ?  might be a win-win situation.  The Mets would replace their oldest pitcher with someone who can mentor the rest and still have an excellent rotation, pending health.  They need a second baseman really badly.  The Twins get a guy who is a number 2 in any post-season team and a number 1 in many teams.

 

Then go out and see what it will take to get someone like Archer.  Would Gordon, Gonsalves, Jorge, as the core be enough?  If not, add a couple more names from above or someone like Gibson or Mejia.

 

This way, the Twins get 2 pitchers better than Berrios and get a rotation of Archer, DeGrom, Berrios, Gibson/Mejia, May/Romero, which looks like a post season rotation. 

In your dreams. 5 of the players you listed have no trade value. The good news is we only need one.

[Otto von Ballpark]

They need to build packages around Dozier, Santana, Vargas, Grossman, Granite, Park, supplemented with prospects like Gonsalves, Gordon, Stewart, Palka etc.

 

For example:

 

Santana + Dozier +? to the Mets for DeGrom + ? might be a win-win situation. The Mets would replace their oldest pitcher with someone who can mentor the rest and still have an excellent rotation, pending health. They need a second baseman really badly. The Twins get a guy who is a number 2 in any post-season team and a number 1 in many teams.

 

Then go out and see what it will take to get someone like Archer. Would Gordon, Gonsalves, Jorge, as the core be enough? If not, add a couple more names from above or someone like Gibson or Mejia.

 

This way, the Twins get 2 pitchers better than Berrios and get a rotation of Archer, DeGrom, Berrios, Gibson/Mejia, May/Romero, which looks like a post season rotation.

Mets replace their oldest pitcher... with an even older one. Their top prospect is an infielder too, and just made his MLB debut in 2017. They may want a short term 2B or even a veteran SP, but there is no evidence suggesting they would have to give up DeGrom for those things. (They got a fine 2B the previous winter for Jon Niese.)

 

I don't think the Twins have enough to get Archer unless you want to include MLB talent and/or Royce Lewis.

[drjim]

 

Mets replace their oldest pitcher... with an even older one. Their top prospect is an infielder too, and just made his MLB debut in 2017. They may want a short term 2B or even a veteran SP, but there is no evidence suggesting they would have to give up DeGrom for those things. (They got a fine 2B the previous winter for Jon Niese.)

I don't think the Twins have enough to get Archer unless you want to include MLB talent and/or Royce Lewis.

 

If the Mets think they compete next year and are interested in Dozier, there might be a trade to be had. I'm highly skeptical they would push in for a couple of free agents to be.

 

But that Archer package is laughable. I don't think merely adding Lewis gets it done. That is where Sano or Buxton come into play, maybe a package of Kepler/Gordon/Gonsalves - but I'm still not sure that's enough.

[drjim]

 

What do you think it would take to get Moore?  It wouldn't be Gordon, but I imagine it would take something that would hurt us in 2018, because the Giants would want help for 2018.  (Which is why they'll probably just roll the dice on Moore.)

 

I guess I can't answer this without knowing exactly what the Giants want to do. As was mentioned, they would be wise to start a rebuild, but they might be a little too pot committed at this point.

[drjim]

It's interesting looking at the Giants, they have a lot of money coming off the books following 2018, and they would be in especially good shape if Cueto opts out and they move Samardzija/Moore

 

They are locked into some big money deals for Crawford and Belt that aren't great, but they are at least playable. Melancon is kind of an albatross, but he could at least be ok if healthy. They could probably unload Samardzija and reload around Bumgarner and Posey, with Crawford/Belt/Melancon, Joe Panik, maybe Christian Arroyo.

 

They would be a really good candidate to reload one more year, shed some more vets (and eat money if necessary) such as Pence and Span, in able to rebuild the prospect inventory, and be ready to play big in free agency following the 2018 season.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Yeah, the Giants pretty much have to reload.  Prime Bumgarner for 2 more years, still near-prime Posey.  Cueto was a bona fide ace just last year.  It's easy to forget with how bad 2017 was, but they actually put up a notable challenge to the eventual champion Cubs in the 2016 NLDS, with Cueto and Moore pitching gems.

 

Their oldest/worse players look like Cain, Pence, and Span, and one of those contracts just ended and the other two end after 2018.  Pence could yet bounce back a bit in 2018, Span too if they move him out of CF judging by defensive metrics.

[drjim]

 

Yeah, the Giants pretty much have to reload.  Prime Bumgarner for 2 more years, still near-prime Posey.  Cueto was a bona fide ace just last year.  It's easy to forget with how bad 2017 was, but they actually put up a notable challenge to the eventual champion Cubs in the 2016 NLDS, with Cueto and Moore pitching gems.

 

Their oldest/worse players look like Cain, Pence, and Span, and one of those contracts just ended and the other two end after 2018.  Pence could yet bounce back a bit in 2018, Span too if they move him out of CF judging by defensive metrics.

 

If the Giants bullpen didn't blow the 9th inning of game 4 against the Cubs, I think they would have played Cleveland in the World Series. Amazing how quickly things can change, but lineup got old, bullpen didn't rebuild and rotation took a step back. One more run would do more harm than good. Will be interesting to see if they can pull the trigger. They don't even have to move Bumgarner or Posey.

[Otto von Ballpark]

FWIW, Moore cleared waivers in August.

 

On one hand, that says his value is low, but on the other hand, if no one is offering much of anything, then it might not make sense for the Giants to move him.  If they have to take back a marginal or non-prospect and possibly even eat cash, they may as well roll the dice on him once more (his value shouldn't go much lower, and still could recover a bit or prove useful to the Giants in 2018).

 

If they really wanted to go that route, I suspect they would have simply declined his option and pocketed the full salary relief or invested the money elsewhere.  As it is, he's not blocking anyone, and there's no obvious internal replacement.

[Otto von Ballpark]

The Giants pitching actually wasn't that bad -- 8th out of 15 in ERA.  And that's with missing a half season of Bumgarner, a full season of Will Smith, and at least a half season of Melancon (who was ineffective when he did pitch before surgery too).  Plus career worst performances from Cueto and Moore.  If I were them, I wouldn't feel too bad about rolling the dice with that pitching staff again. Outside of relievers Smith and Melancon, they don't have many pitching injuries to overcome. Samardzija isn't a star but he adds stability.  A few decent relief performers coming back too like Strickland.

 

Position players are the big problem -- 14th out of 15 in runs scored.  Probably something similar in defense.  A good defensive outfielder could go a long way for them, and wouldn't necessarily cost a ton -- Jarrod Dyson?  That could push Span's bat to LF.  Their pitching staff has enough potential that their position players don't need to be great -- they only ranked 9th in runs scored in 2016 -- but they do need a couple pieces.  They'll need a third baseman too (don't know about Arroyo).

[Mike Sixel]

Spend the year getting our minor leaguers into the league. See how good they can be. Improve the base then look for a FA if we need one in another year. Not yet!

Another year of Sano and Buxton gone? Why?

[Physics Guy]

I want one SP and two relievers (inc. a closer) added to the team. Santana, FA, Berrios, Gibson, Mejia, Gonsalves, Romero and maybe May gives them some depth. Off the top of my head, here are my choices.

 

1). Pay what it takes to get Darvish. I doubt the Twins win the bidding.

 

2). Trade for Archer. I would like to see an upgrade. Romero, Polanco and a couple of prospects. Don't want to see Gonsalves or Gordon traded. Adrianza and Esco fill in until Gordon is ready. I don't think Polanco stays at SS long term.

 

3) Sign Cobb, 4 years/64M. He had two 3+ bWAR seasons in the AL East before his TJ surgery.

 

4). Sign Lance Lynn. Three years at 3+ bWAR. Like Cobb better because of AL East history.

[The Wise One]

 

Who?

Are you sure he did not mean trade for Hu?

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I hope Stephen Gonsalves plays well enough to force the Twins' hand and gets called up next season.

Hopefully May can be healthy enough to compete too.

I think May can help next year, though I doubt it happens before July.

 

Unfortunately, he'll need innings in those first three months and I'm not really comfortable with that idea.