FA Starting Pitching List....

[Oldgoat_MN]

Felix Jorge in AA, 2017- 1.329 WHIP, 6.6 K/9
Fernando Romero in AA – 1.352 WHIP, 8.9 K/9
Stephen Gonsalves in AAA (22.1 IP) 1.544 WHIP, 8.7 K/9
Dereck Rodriguez in AA – 1.341 WHIP, 7.4 K/9
Kohl Stewart in AA – 1.519 WHIP, 6.1 K/9

 

Pretty much no reason to believe that any of these guys are ready to step into an MLB starting rotation. We need a #1 or #2 to solidify our starting rotation.  Even then we are hoping for good health for all, continued growth and success for some (Gibson, Berrios, Mejia). 

A lot has to go right to reach the post-season, even with our defense and offense looking strong.

[Pardon My Dinger]

Shohei Ohtani. My heart was broken yesterday. Let me dream again.

[beckmt]

Not clear on how many starters the Twins will need next year. I could also see signing Brett Anderson on an incentive based contract with a fair base salary.  Will need that to get it done.

[beckmt]

Anderson may have problems getting more than a 1 year contract due to injury concerns.

[mickeymental]

 

Who?

who's on first.

[drjim]

I see zero reason to add any such FA starting pitchers. Santana, Berrios, Gibson, Mejia, Slegers, Gonsalves, Romero, Jorge, and even Dereck Rodriguez are options.

Big difference between being an option and actually being an effective mlb starter.

 

The first 3 are fine, might be able to scrap together a 5th starter with the remainder and a returning May, but they need another solid option. An injury or two and they'd be cooked if they did nothing.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Hey Mike;

How about a thread on FA relievers? Especially since (AL):

RK TEAM ERA SO BAA
1 Cleveland 2.89 548 .225
12 Minnesota 4.40 482 .261

 

I was going there today, haven't checked to see if anyone has yet....

[Vanimal46]

 

Kohl Stewart is 10 times the prospect Dereck Rodriguez is, and Jorge and Slegers for that matter. Romero will most likely end up in the pen.

 

If Santiago would look at a one year make good deal I would consider it.  He had never been on the DL until this season. He's better than all but a handful of FA's. My first choice would be opening up the farm and making a trade. Flash Romero, Gonsalves, Gordon, or even one of our young but highly rated SS's. No reason to wait, our window appears to be 4-5 years starting now.

 

Agreed on Rodriguez. He shouldn't even be on our radar for potential SP to consider IMO. 

No way, no how the Twins will pursue Santiago again. Especially so if Molitor stays on as manager. Molitor looked disgusted the last couple of times he pulled Santiago from a game. 

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

all fair thoughts, and agreed there are lots of options. But, imo, they need 1 FA SP. I think you pencil in ESan, Berrios, Gibson, Mejia, FA.

 

a nitpick: Jay isn't a starter....

I personally don’t think we should sign a fa sp because if the team takes a step back it’s a waste of money. I’d rather see us play out the first few months of the season to access whether we are a contender again and see how our mlb and milb sp are performing. Then, be the team that moves FIRST for a sp, if we deem we are in need of one and a contender again.

 

We can’t just assume that we will be this good or better next year, even if everyone is healthy. There is just as much room for regression with most our guys, and growth and success isn’t just linear.

[KirbyDome89]

How comfortable is anybody with any of the current starting pitchers in a playoff game? 

 

Make a serious run at a front end starter either in FA of via trade. If the Twins won't do that (very likely) then I agree that I would rather see them use the money to build a pen. I'm not particularly thrilled about pouring money into a bullpen and hoping a patchwork rotation can get to a "not terrible," level but I think it's a better option than committing $18 - 20  million for multiple years to another back end starter. 

[pierre75275]

We went thru 16 "starting pitchers" last year. We should sign at least one if not 2. I would like the to sign one of chatwood, Cobb or Lynn. Maybe Cashner, and take a flyer on a guy like Brett Anderson.

[Deduno Abides]

Who?

He's going to be playing first next year.

[Deduno Abides]

I think the goal should be to get Madison Bumgarner at the trade deadline.

 

Right now, they need to get the coaching staff resolved ASAP so they can work with the pitching coach to determine the free agents that they think they can get the most out of. One or two starters to solidify the rotation would be good, but simply going by reputations and statistics isn't going to be good enough to get the desired return for the likely cost.

[Doctor Wu]

Andrew Cashner actually had a pretty good season for Texas this year, posting a 3,40 ERA in 28 starts. But only 86 Ks.  His WAR was listed as 4.6. Wouldn't be a horrible pickup, but I'd think the Rangers would want to bring him back due to their own dearth of starting pitching.

[jimmer]

Fangraphs had Cashner at fWAR 1.9, probably due to a FIP of 4.61

[jimmer]

We didn't have one SP with an fWAR of 3.0 or higher.

 

We had only two SPS with a fWAR over 2.0.

 

Our 3rd highest fWAR for an SP was 1.1

 

 

[Darius]

I think Cobb would be ideal. Allen has worked with him in the TB org in the past.

 

Pineda is also an intriguing guy who could have some upside.

 

The money should be there.

[mickeymental]

to reiterate what's been posted elsewhere: what's the deal with so many "quality" starting pitchers getting rocked day after day this postseason? just watched fister leave after 3 er in 1-1/3, peacock after 3 er in 2-2/3. that on the heels of severino, santana, kluber, walker, pomeranz, ray. even kershaw's 4 er in 6-1/3 was less than ace-like. is it all just an abberation?

 

it does bring to mind the 3-3-3 rotation idea put forward about a decade ago, whereby pitchers throw only three innings every third day. of course, that wouldn't solve the less-than-three-inning problems of severino, santana, fister, peacock, etc. ...

 

[ashbury]

of course, that wouldn't solve the less-than-three-inning problems of severino, santana, fister, peacock, etc. ...

It might. Pitchers pace themselves differently if they know they're only going three, versus trying to go six-plus. Maybe for instance Santana warms up a little longer, and has command of his breaking pitch.

 

Of course that pace wouldn't be sustainable over a long season. But, as they say, you have all winter to rest up.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I think they need to get a starter, whether by trade or FA, I don't care that much. I want said starter to be well above average and someone they can count on for a couple years. My concern is that if they tender Gibson, that doesn't leave much room for a new pitcher. Santana and Berrios are locks in the rotation, and Mejia has certainly earned a second year as well, and  I still think that they need to keep the 5 spot open for May and/or some of their AAA arms.

[Major League Ready]

 

I think Cobb would be ideal. Allen has worked with him in the TB org in the past.

Pineda is also an intriguing guy who could have some upside.

The money should be there.

 

I was on the Cobb bandwagon a couple months ago but as I recall, he works REALLLLLLY slow right.  That drives me nuts.

[PseudoSABR]

 

I believe Pineda will miss most of next season recovering from TJ surgery.

Two year deal? One year, option year? He's youngish, and had unfulfilled promise and some track record of success...

[Thrylos]

a.  I do not get the love for Cobb and esp. Lynne.  2017 numbers:

 

Lance Lynne (NL) 4.82 FIP, 7.4 K/9, 2.0 K/9, 1.23 WHIP (.244 BABIP)
Alex Cobb (AL) 4.16 FIP, 6.4 K/9, 2.9 K/BB, 1.22 WHIP (.282 BABIP)

Certain FA pitcher (AL only numbers, he pitched earlier in the season in the NL) 3.82 FIP, 5.9 K/9, 2.4 K/BB, 1.44 WHIP (.340 BABIP)

 

Hint: Why would you sign them and expect them to be good? 

 

b. If 34 and 35 year olds are "too old", so should be Ervin Santana

 

 

For this team to compete in the postseason next season, they will need at least 2 arms at the Berrios or better level.  Can one of them come within the organization (May, Rosario, Littel?)  I would not count on it for 2018.   So they need 2 outside of the organization.   In that list, only Darvish fits the bill.  So does Otani who is not listed.  Will they go after those 2?  I doubt it.

So they have to get those pitchers via trades...

[jimmer]

I hope Stephen Gonsalves plays well enough to force the Twins' hand and gets called up next season.

Hopefully May can be healthy enough to compete too.

[Yossarian]

Stephen Gonzalves and Fernando Romero.

[PseudoSABR]

 

Stephen Gonzalves and Fernando Romero.

I feel the need to add that these guys will likely get starts next year.  The Twins used, irrc, a record number of starters this year.  They'll need 7-8 quality guys (at least).  But Gonsalves and Romero should absolutely not be counted on.   The Twins will need acquire above replacement level quality arms, whether through FA or trade...

[diehardtwinsfan]

Gonsalves and Romero are great AAA depth for next year. They will both get a shot at some point, so I'm not too terribly worried there. The question is which 5 they go north with, and if they tender Gibson (and that really is the open spot in the rotation unless there is zero hope that May will be ready next spring), then I don't see how they will add a starter (and note, I want them to add a starter).

[Cory Engelhardt]

I wouldn't mind the thought of Matt Moore if they are truly looking for depth/potential turnaround. I don't know if the Giants will let him opt out, but he has a lot of things going for him (I believe) that show he could be better with the Twins outfield defense than he was with the Giants.

1) He will turn 29 in June of 2018, so he still has youth on his side.

2) His average fastball velocity is still about the same as it has been since 2012, but it was harder prior to that.

3) He is left handed, which doesn't hurt.

4) He has had success in the majors before.

5) His K rate, even last year, was 7.64 per 9, which isn't terrible but it is roughly the same as Cobb's was and is more than Santana averaged (7.11)

6) His walk rate was high, which I think is his biggest issue.

7) His BABIP was .320, which is higher than league average, so it's possible he is due for some regression. Santana's was .245, which was WAY below league average. Average is what, .285 or so?

8) His FIP (4.75) was not THAT much higher than Santana's (4.46) last year.

 

Again, I don't think he will be great. He may not even be good. But he is someone that has had success, is still under 30, still throws hard and is left handed. If he were to be available, I'd be fine giving him a shot to be a 4/5 and possibly have the potential to pitch like a 3. He may even like the idea of playing for an ELITE outfield defense, especially when he is a flyball pitcher.

 

That said, Cobb or Chatwood would be fun as well, for different reasons. And I'd also love it if the Twins explored the trade route for starters.

 

 

[drjim]

 

I wouldn't mind the thought of Matt Moore if they are truly looking for depth/potential turnaround. I don't know if the Giants will let him opt out, but he has a lot of things going for him (I believe) that show he could be better with the Twins outfield defense than he was with the Giants.

1) He will turn 29 in June of 2018, so he still has youth on his side.

2) His average fastball velocity is still about the same as it has been since 2012, but it was harder prior to that.

3) He is left handed, which doesn't hurt.

4) He has had success in the majors before.

5) His K rate, even last year, was 7.64 per 9, which isn't terrible but it is roughly the same as Cobb's was and is more than Santana averaged (7.11)

6) His walk rate was high, which I think is his biggest issue.

7) His BABIP was .320, which is higher than league average, so it's possible he is due for some regression. Santana's was .245, which was WAY below league average. Average is what, .285 or so?

8) His FIP (4.75) was not THAT much higher than Santana's (4.46) last year.

 

Again, I don't think he will be great. He may not even be good. But he is someone that has had success, is still under 30, still throws hard and is left handed. If he were to be available, I'd be fine giving him a shot to be a 4/5 and possibly have the potential to pitch like a 3. He may even like the idea of playing for an ELITE outfield defense, especially when he is a flyball pitcher.

 

That said, Cobb or Chatwood would be fun as well, for different reasons. And I'd also love it if the Twins explored the trade route for starters.

 

The Giants will pick up the option, but I imagine he could be had for a relatively limited return. I would fully endorse a move like that. Combine acquiring him with either Cobb or Lynn, or a couple of the other guys that would be a worthwhile flyer, and you have a competitive rotation with some upside and some depth.

[drjim]

 

a.  I do not get the love for Cobb and esp. Lynne.  2017 numbers:

 

Lance Lynne (NL) 4.82 FIP, 7.4 K/9, 2.0 K/9, 1.23 WHIP (.244 BABIP)
Alex Cobb (AL) 4.16 FIP, 6.4 K/9, 2.9 K/BB, 1.22 WHIP (.282 BABIP)

Certain FA pitcher (AL only numbers, he pitched earlier in the season in the NL) 3.82 FIP, 5.9 K/9, 2.4 K/BB, 1.44 WHIP (.340 BABIP)

 

Hint: Why would you sign them and expect them to be good? 

 

b. If 34 and 35 year olds are "too old", so should be Ervin Santana

 

 

For this team to compete in the postseason next season, they will need at least 2 arms at the Berrios or better level.  Can one of them come within the organization (May, Rosario, Littel?)  I would not count on it for 2018.   So they need 2 outside of the organization.   In that list, only Darvish fits the bill.  So does Otani who is not listed.  Will they go after those 2?  I doubt it.

So they have to get those pitchers via trades...

 

2017 was the first year off of TJ for Lynn, and Cobb had injuries in 15 and 16 that he was recovering from. If they stay healthy I would expect more of a return to their previous numbers. There is great injury risk with both of them, but part of paying for that risk is what makes them potentially available for the Twins. If they stay healthy, it is potentially a steal.

 

And pitchers better than Berrios are not available in trades. And even if they are, Twins have nowhere near the firepower to get them unless they are moving Buxton or Sano. To get a pitcher at Berrios level it is going to take Kepler, Rosario or Polanco. A few posters are even hesitant to give up someone like Romero in a package for Archer, so perhaps there is some unrealistic expectations of what the Twins can actually acquire.