FA Starting Pitching List....

[Mike Sixel]

from mbltraderumors:

 

Brett Anderson (30) (why would anyone sign him and expect him to be good?)
Jake Arrieta (32) (too expensive for his production?)
Clay Buchholz (33) (uh, no)
Madison Bumgarner (28) — $12MM club option with a $1.5M buyout (not going to be a FA)
Trevor Cahill (30) (if this is what they sign, good luck)
Matt Cain (33) — $21MM club option with a $7.5MM buyout (NL starter with an ERA over 5 three straight years)
Andrew Cashner (31) (no idea, but he wasn't terrible this year)
Jhoulys Chacin (30) (first good year in 3 years)
Tyler Chatwood (28) (a flyer maybe, but I bet he stays in CO, would you bet on him as your big acquisition?)
Jesse Chavez (34) (no thanks)
Wei-Yin Chen (32) — Can opt out of the remaining three years, $52MM on his contract (you going to pay him more than that?)
Alex Cobb (30) (certainly possible, but might be best/safest on the list, that will cost $$)
Bartolo Colon (45) (ha)
Johnny Cueto (32) — Can opt out of the remaining four years, $84MM on his contract (well, he's not opting out after being hurt)
Yu Darvish (31) (Twins won't win the bidding war, will they?)
John Danks (33) (uh, has he ever been good?)
Jorge De La Rosa (37) (too old)
R.A. Dickey (43) — $8MM club option with $500K buyout (haha)
Nathan Eovaldi (28) — $2MM club option (if he's worth $2MM, he stays, if not, why do you want him?)
Scott Feldman (35) (too old)
Doug Fister (34) (no)
Yovani Gallardo (32) — $13MM club option with a $2MM buyout (if he's not worth $13MM, why do you want him?)
Jaime Garcia (31) (hahahaha)
Matt Garza (34) (haha)
Dillon Gee (32) (really?)
Miguel Gonzalez (34) (too old)
Jeremy Hellickson (31) (has he ever been as good as his hype?)
Yoshihisa Hirano (34) (too old)
Derek Holland (31) (not good)
Ubaldo Jimenez (34) (too old, not good)
Ian Kennedy (33) — Can opt out of the remaining three years, $43MM on his contract (you going to pay him more than that?)
John Lackey (39) (too old, retired?)
Francisco Liriano (34) (not a good SP)
Jordan Lyles (27) (never produced)
Lance Lynn (31) (good bet, but given the options, more than you think)
Wade Miley (31) — $12MM club option with a $500K buyout (if he's not worth $12MM, why do you want him?)
Mike Minor (30) — $10MM mutual option with a $1.25MM buyout (if he's not worth $10MM, why do you want him?)
Matt Moore (29) — $9MM club option with a $1MM buyout (if he's not worth $9MM, why do you want him?)
Jon Niese (31) (injured)
Ricky Nolasco (35) — $13MM club option with a $1MM buyout (hahahahahaha)

Martin Perez (27) — $6MM club option with a $2.45MM buyout (if he's not worth $6MM, why do you want him?)
Michael Pineda (29) (possible number 4/5 type)
Tyson Ross (31) (has he been good in 4 years?)
CC Sabathia (37) (no)
Anibal Sanchez (34) — $16MM club option with a $5MM buyout (too old)
Hector Santiago (30) (hahahahaha)
Chris Sale (29) — $12.5MM club option with a $1MM buyout (uh, ya, they might exercise that)
Masahiro Tanaka (29) — Can opt out of the remaining three years, $67MM on his contract (you going to pay him more than that?)
Chris Tillman (30) (only good in even numbered years, so 1 year deal only)
Josh Tomlin (33) — $3MM club option with a $750K buyout (well, if he's not worth $3MM......)
Jason Vargas (35) (too old)
Chris Young (39) (should be Chris old)

 

So, who do you like in that list?

[Vanimal46]

The 2 pitchers mentioned in the other thread was Lance Lynn and Alex Cobb. So let's say those 2. If those 2 are considered the "safe" options, and 29* other baseball teams seeking SP depth, they're going to get expensive. 

It's a possibility both get $16-20 MM a season for 4+ years on the open market. A lot of cheddar to think about. 

 

* I took the Dodgers off because they have what feels like 28 different SP options. 

[prouster]

 

The 2 pitchers mentioned in the other thread was Lance Lynn and Alex Cobb. So let's say those 2. If those 2 are considered the "safe" options, and 29* other baseball teams seeking SP depth, they're going to get expensive. 

It's a possibility both get $16-20 MM a season for 4+ years on the open market. A lot of cheddar to think about. 

 

* I took the Dodgers off because they have what feels like 28 different SP options. 

 

Santiago's $8m is off the books. So is Belisle's (I think) $2.5m. There are some other free agents closer to the league minimum. Of course, there will also be some arbitration raises. I don't know what the totals are, but my un-mathematical assumption is that there will probably be some money freed up. Enough to sign a decent FA starter? I don't know. I sure hope so.

[yarnivek1972]

The only way the Twins are going to attract a free agent pitcher is by overpaying. That’s what you have to do when your organization doesn’t draft or develop it’s homegrown talent.

[gunnarthor]

I've mentioned in other threads that after arbitration the Twins might have around 20m to spend in FA. Here's their payroll for next year - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17Ks25huKVP_ducCpWbLmo7h-N09oIGBGoa940Uergz8/pubhtml

 

So, that said, maybe Cobb or Chacin would be reasonable options in the 4/48m bin? Honestly, I might rather bite the bullet and take a guy like Vargas or Feldman on a one year deal over committing several years to these other guys.

[Riverbrian]

I'd be willing to consider Chatwood, Cobb, Lynn, Hellickson, Moore and Gee

 

Although... I would still rather see the Twins spend 20 million on 3 or 4 top end bullpen arms instead. 

[John Kelsey]

 

I'd be willing to consider Chatwood, Cobb, Lynn, Hellickson, Moore and Gee

 

Although... I would still rather see the Twins spend 20 million on 3 or 4 top end bullpen arms instead. 

 

I have the same list minus Gee. 

[Mike Sixel]

Here is another breakdown:

 

not going to be a FA:

Madison Bumgarner (28) — $12MM club option with a $1.5M buyout (not going to be a FA)
Chris Sale (29) — $12.5MM club option with a $1MM buyout (uh, ya, they might exercise that)

 

OLD:

Jesse Chavez (34) (no thanks)
Bartolo Colon (45) (ha)
Jorge De La Rosa (37) (too old)
R.A. Dickey (43) — $8MM club option with $500K buyout (haha)
Scott Feldman (35) (too old)
Doug Fister (34) (no)
Jaime Garcia (31) (hahahaha)
Matt Garza (34) (haha)
Miguel Gonzalez (34) (too old)
Yoshihisa Hirano (34) (too old)
Ubaldo Jimenez (34) (too old, not good)
John Lackey (39) (too old, retired?)
Ricky Nolasco (35) — $13MM club option with a $1MM buyout (hahahahahaha)
CC Sabathia (37) (no)
Anibal Sanchez (34) — $16MM club option with a $5MM buyout (too old)
Jason Vargas (35) (too old)
Chris Young (39) (should be Chris old)

 

Not good (and not on the old list, I hope):

Brett Anderson (30) (why would anyone sign him and expect him to be good?)
Clay Buchholz (33) (uh, no)
Trevor Cahill (30) (if this is what they sign, good luck)
Matt Cain (33) — $21MM club option with a $7.5MM buyout (NL starter with an ERA over 5 three straight years)
John Danks (33) (uh, has he ever been good?)
Jaime Garcia (31) (hahahaha)
Dillon Gee (32) (really?)
Derek Holland (31) (not good)
Jordan Lyles (27) (never produced)
Ricky Nolasco (35) — $13MM club option with a $1MM buyout (hahahahahaha)
Tyson Ross (31) (has he been good in 4 years?)
Hector Santiago (30) (hahahahaha)
Jon Niese (31) (injured)

 

If they don't exercise the option, why would you want him (or why would he take less)?

Wei-Yin Chen (32) — Can opt out of the remaining three years, $52MM on his contract (you going to pay him more than that?)
Johnny Cueto (32) — Can opt out of the remaining four years, $84MM on his contract (well, he's not opting out after being hurt)
Nathan Eovaldi (28) — $2MM club option (if he's worth $2MM, he stays, if not, why do you want him?)
Yovani Gallardo (32) — $13MM club option with a $2MM buyout (if he's not worth $13MM, why do you want him?)
Ian Kennedy (33) — Can opt out of the remaining three years, $43MM on his contract (you going to pay him more than that?)
Wade Miley (31) — $12MM club option with a $500K buyout (if he's not worth $12MM, why do you want him?)
Mike Minor (30) — $10MM mutual option with a $1.25MM buyout (if he's not worth $10MM, why do you want him?)
Matt Moore (29) — $9MM club option with a $1MM buyout (if he's not worth $9MM, why do you want him?)
Martin Perez (27) — $6MM club option with a $2.45MM buyout (if he's not worth $6MM, why do you want him?)
Masahiro Tanaka (29) — Can opt out of the remaining three years, $67MM on his contract (you going to pay him more than that?)
Josh Tomlin (33) — $3MM club option with a $750K buyout (well, if he's not worth $3MM......)

 

Possible options:

Yu Darvish (31) (Twins won't win the bidding war, will they?)
Jake Arrieta (32) (too expensive for his production?)
Andrew Cashner (31) (no idea, but he wasn't terrible this year)
Jhoulys Chacin (30) (first good year in 3 years)
Tyler Chatwood (28) (a flyer maybe, but I bet he stays in CO, would you bet on him as your big acquisition?)
Alex Cobb (30) (certainly possible, but might be best/safest on the list, that will cost $$)
Jeremy Hellickson (31) (has he ever been as good as his hype?)
Lance Lynn (31) (good bet, but given the options, more than you think)
Michael Pineda (29) (possible number 4/5 type)
Chris Tillman (30) (only good in even numbered years, so 1 year deal only)

[Riverbrian]

 

I have the same list minus Gee. 

 

Gee threw some nice innings for us. I'm ok with him but I did list him last on purpose. 

[gunnarthor]

I believe Pineda will miss most of next season recovering from TJ surgery.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

 

Gee threw some nice innings for us. I'm ok with him but I did list him last on purpose. 

Gee was good in the bullpen, especially as the fireman type role for a couple innings at a crack. I would not want him in the rotation at all.

 

With a decent chance of Gibson and Mejia in the rotation, this role has a high likelihood of importance for 2018.

[S.]

Been saying all year that I think we should push hard for Darvish. I'd like to see us get him and a solid #3 and then spend some money on some bullpen pitching who can actually strike people out. A top 4 of Darvish, Santana, Berrios, FA/trade #3 type pitcher would look pretty decent with a stronger bullpen behind it.

 

Or if I'm really dreaming, I'd like us to get Darvish and then use his presence to help us make a play for Otani. Another japanese pitcher who he can connect/easily communicate with, a team full of young exciting players, and with the current situation with him, its not like there is a bidding war to lose, so he's going to be picking his team based on where he wants to be/who he wants to be with. I think we could actually have a chance with Darvish here. But, I'm probably just dreaming on that front.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I believe Pineda will miss most of next season recovering from TJ surgery.

 

d'oh, I forgot that! cross him off!

 

it's not a long list, making everyone cost more....

[Tomj14]

 

I've mentioned in other threads that after arbitration the Twins might have around 20m to spend in FA. Here's their payroll for next year - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17Ks25huKVP_ducCpWbLmo7h-N09oIGBGoa940Uergz8/pubhtml

 

So, that said, maybe Cobb or Chacin would be reasonable options in the 4/48m bin? Honestly, I might rather bite the bullet and take a guy like Vargas or Feldman on a one year deal over committing several years to these other guys.

I have seen Cobb's market value is closer to 18 million a year than 12. from the link in the other thread. http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/free-agents/starting-pitcher/

 

[Tomj14]

My worry with signing somebody like Cobb for 60+ million is that if he doesn't live up to expectations it could set the club back a few years because its dead money. That's why I would rather make a splash with a trade. (De Grom or Archer)

But I am more willing to trade prospects than most.

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

I don't see the Twins signing a SP as a free agent this winter. Maybe trading for one – I doubt it. Maybe signing one next spring.

 

The Twins will sign – hopefully – 2-3 FA relief pitchers. 

 

I see the Twins wanting to make a push next year for the post season – while they still have Dozier, Santana and Mauer under contract, along with the youngsters. But we have several pitchers coming up who can fill the void. like Gonsalves, Romero, Jorge, Jay, and Stewart. With – and barring injuries - Santana, Gibson and berrios in the rotation already, adding two more at spring training should not be a problem. And that's without listing several who pitched in 2017, like Mejia, Turley, Seigers and Enns.

 

 

[Shane Wahl]

I see zero reason to add any such FA starting pitchers. Santana, Berrios, Gibson, Mejia, Slegers, Gonsalves, Romero, Jorge, and even Dereck Rodriguez are options.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I don't see the Twins signing a SP as a free agent this winter. Maybe trading for one – I doubt it. Maybe signing one next spring.

 

The Twins will sign – hopefully – 2-3 FA relief pitchers. 

 

I see the Twins wanting to make a push next year for the post season – while they still have Dozier, Santana and Mauer under contract, along with the youngsters. But we have several pitchers coming up who can fill the void. like Gonsalves, Romero, Jorge, Jay, and Stewart. With – and barring injuries - Santana, Gibson and berrios in the rotation already, adding two more at spring training should not be a problem. And that's without listing several who pitched in 2017, like Mejia, Turley, Seigers and Enns.

 

all fair thoughts, and agreed there are lots of options. But, imo, they need 1 FA SP. I think you pencil in ESan, Berrios, Gibson, Mejia, FA. 

 

a nitpick: Jay isn't a starter....

[caninatl04]

I see zero reason to add any such FA starting pitchers. Santana, Berrios, Gibson, Mejia, Slegers, Gonsalves, Romero, Jorge, and even Dereck Rodriguez are options.

On a serious note: I concur that if the Twins can't (or won't) afford a true ace, I don't see why they would use better allocated resources on a #3 or #4 starter. The post I quoted mentions that the Twins have many possible 3, 4 or 5 starters for 2018. Further, given April schedules with the many days off, they really only need 4 starters for the first month (with maybe a Gee with spot starts), while the AAA law firm of "Slegers, Gonsalves, Romero, Jorge, and Rodriguez" get in a couple of starts and battle for the 5th (and maybe 4th?) starting spot.

 

On a less serious note: why have posters forgotten about the second highest paid pitcher and third highest paid player on the roster? Maybe our savior is Phil Hughes!!!

[caninatl04]

Hey Mike;

 

How about a thread on FA relievers? Especially since (AL):

 

RK TEAM ERA SO BAA

1 Cleveland 2.89 548 .225

12 Minnesota 4.40 482 .261

[Danchat]

 

I see zero reason to add any such FA starting pitchers. Santana, Berrios, Gibson, Mejia, Slegers, Gonsalves, Romero, Jorge, and even Dereck Rodriguez are options.

Are you implying the Twins don't need to add any starters or that they should forget FAs and trade for a starter? I think it would be foolish to go into next season with Santana-Berrios-Mejia-Gibson(?!)-May/Gonsalves(?) as your starters. I think it would be wise to add [at least] one starter via trade/FA.

[prouster]

I see zero reason to add any such FA starting pitchers. Santana, Berrios, Gibson, Mejia, Slegers, Gonsalves, Romero, Jorge, and even Dereck Rodriguez are options.

That's certainly a strategy they could take, but a lot of things would have to go right for it to work. Out of curiosity (not snark), how would you spend the approximately $20 million another poster mentioned? Bullpen? Bench bat? Both?

[howieramone2]

 

I see zero reason to add any such FA starting pitchers. Santana, Berrios, Gibson, Mejia, Slegers, Gonsalves, Romero, Jorge, and even Dereck Rodriguez are options.

Kohl Stewart is 10 times the prospect Dereck Rodriguez is, and Jorge and Slegers for that matter. Romero will most likely end up in the pen.

 

If Santiago would look at a one year make good deal I would consider it.  He had never been on the DL until this season. He's better than all but a handful of FA's. My first choice would be opening up the farm and making a trade. Flash Romero, Gonsalves, Gordon, or even one of our young but highly rated SS's. No reason to wait, our window appears to be 4-5 years starting now.

[beckmt]

Problem is most of the prospect list is 2019 material, maybe midseason 2018.  I would rather make a trade than pay/overpay most of this thin starting pitcher market.  

Cobb and Lynn will be in the $16 - $20 million a year for 4/5 years.  They are #3/#4 type starters.  Twins have plenty of prospects that have that potential.  Giants are going to pick up Matt Moore's option, so that will not work.  We shall see.

[Dave The Dastardly]

 

On a serious note: I concur that if the Twins can't (or won't) afford a true ace, I don't see why they would use better allocated resources on a #3 or #4 starter. The post I quoted mentions that the Twins have many possible 3, 4 or 5 starters for 2018. Further, given April schedules with the many days off, they really only need 4 starters for the first month (with maybe a Gee with spot starts), while the AAA law firm of "Slegers, Gonsalves, Romero, Jorge, and Rodriguez" get in a couple of starts and battle for the 5th (and maybe 4th?) starting spot.

On a less serious note: why have posters forgotten about the second highest paid pitcher and third highest paid player on the roster? Maybe our savior is Phil Hughes!!!

Who?

[beckmt]

 

Who?

Very unlikely, not holding my breath.

[beckmt]

Would rather shoot for a bounce back, not horribly expensive trade for a pitcher with risk, Matt Harvey anyone.

[ashbury]

Would rather shoot for a bounce back, not horribly expensive trade for a pitcher with risk, Matt Harvey anyone.

I'd be shocked if Harvey weren't "horribly expensive". The Mets can handle the risk he represents.

[dbminn]

I think the Twins need to trade for a #2 SP. They will have to give up Gonsalves or Romero as part of a trade. I would look at Tyler Chatwood to replace the traded prospect. He was really good outside of Coors Field (3.49 ERA). I don't have a strong opinion - just seems like an interesting option.

 

Maybe trade for Gerrit Cole? Still has two years left before he's a free agent. 

 

[DocBauer]

Always comes down to terms doesn't it?

 

My list of potentials would include Artists, Chatwood, Cobb, Garcia and Lynn.

 

Arrietta was still solid, may be ready for a strong bounce back, may need a change of scenery. Chatswood was that much better away from Coors Field? Have to look closer. Would Garcia hold a grudge? If not, I'd be very interested,

 

Why does Lynn keep popping in my head as the ideal target?