Article: The Falvey And Levine Machine

[USAFChief]

I think what gets lost in this discussion is that trading Garcia and Kintzler opened the door to keep throwing Gibson out there and promoting Hildenberger... and I'd add that both Gibby and Hildy out performed the guys who were traded in opportunities that they may not have gotten otherwise.

 

I still think selling was the right move, and we have more answered questions with guys like Hildenberger and Busenitz right now due to it.

Both Gibson and Hildenberger would have gotten similar if not identical opportunities even if the Twins ADDED pitching. Check the list of pitchers used.

[old nurse]

 

And this is the key point...the Twins were in it, had been in it all season, and had a very reasonable chance of staying in it.

After a half decade of suck.

Don't sell. Add.

Add what at what cost?  A trade like the Jepson trade a couple of years back? Sonny Gray? Do you suppose the Twins could have offered a pile of non prospects to entice what the Yankees offered in ceiling? 

[old nurse]

 

 

Yeah this was stated by several posters at the deadline after the trade.  The "believers" felt the Twins could stay in the wild card until the end.  I don't think anyone predicted they would win it but that they could stay in the hunt.  So that thought was shared by many.  

 

I just feel like people have selective memory and don't remember how dire things were.  Polanco was in a major slump.  Buxton couldn't hit anything. Kepler was slumping. Dozier had not had a great first half.  Sano was striking out more at the plate and coming back to earth.  Gibson was awful and the bullpen only had three guys they could depend on.  To me at that point in time is not a team that stops me from selling.

 

Yeah a lot of things changed for the better after that but could you have seen it coming? I doubt it because I never saw any posts about any of it until after players started coming around.  Even with everything that has been said in the end the FO made the best decision because we made the wild card without Kintzler.  Maybe they could see something that everyone else could not.  That he wasn't going to be the difference between making the wild card or not.

With 21 games against 3 of the worse teams in baseball on the remaining schedule and only 12 games better teams on July 31 anybody who bothered to read a schedule  could see that there was  an excellent chance for a playoff birth. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Have you seen the Angels pitching staff? Ricky Nolasco? As of late July, they were pinning their hopes on the healthy return of Alex Meyer. That was supposed to intimidate the Twins into selling?

I feel like you keep bringing up hypotheticals that don't match anything the Twins should have known about the field as of July 30.

 

As opposed to Colon and Gibson, who before he went on his run was a DFA candidate?

 

The Twins weren't all that good. The other teams weren't all that good. But making multi-million dollar decisions about years of players can't be done on the assumption that only your team is going to all of a sudden play well, and nearly every other team is going to play worse. That's not a good process.

 

If we are going to be pedantic about "fold", choose a different word for "every other team playing worse".

[Mike Sixel]

 

Add what at what cost?  A trade like the Jepson trade a couple of years back? Sonny Gray? Do you suppose the Twins could have offered a pile of non prospects to entice what the Yankees offered in ceiling? 

 

Weird how the Twins, in what, 20 years, have never once had the players to trade for a legit pitcher. Weird how other teams do find a way. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

With 21 games against 3 of the worse teams in baseball on the remaining schedule and only 12 games better teams on July 31 anybody who bothered to read a schedule could see that there was an excellent chance for a playoff birth.

No, which is why no prediction models had the Twins with a good chance of a berth.

 

It’s easy to look at stuff like the Tigers’ record today and assume they were always that terrible. But the Tigers were ten games under .500 at the deadline. Fewer than two months later, they are 33 games under .500 and that is AFTER they won four straight games from Aug 1-4.

 

Baseball is a silly sport. Oakland and Detroit were basically the same team at the deadline. Pretty bad but not horrific. Both sold significant pieces.

 

Detroit went 23 games under .500 down the stretch. Oakland went one game OVER .500.

[Dman]

 

With 21 games against 3 of the worse teams in baseball on the remaining schedule and only 12 games better teams on July 31 anybody who bothered to read a schedule  could see that there was  an excellent chance for a playoff birth. 

I guess fangraphs and all the supposed experts are schmucks then because they sure didn't see "it" coming.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Both Gibson and Hildenberger would have gotten similar if not identical opportunities even if the Twins ADDED pitching. Check the list of pitchers used.

 

Hildy at some point, I would tend to agree (though the question at hand becomes when). But I don't buy Gibby.

 

Gibby was downright awful prior to that, and it was his spot in the rotation we all wanted to replace.

[Mike Sixel]

 

With 21 games against 3 of the worse teams in baseball on the remaining schedule and only 12 games better teams on July 31 anybody who bothered to read a schedule  could see that there was  an excellent chance for a playoff birth. 

 

Really, at that point you would have bet money at less than 1:1 odds that they'd make the playoffs?

 

And, you'd have made that bet in July, when the Twins had to make a decision also?

Edited September 29, 2017 by Mike Sixel

[Brock Beauchamp]

Hildy at some point, I would tend to agree (though the question at hand becomes when). But I don't buy Gibby.

 

Gibby was downright awful prior to that, and it was his spot in the rotation we all wanted to replace.

And if there was another option available, literally ANY option at all, it’s hard to see Molitor taking Gibby back at any point. The distaste Paul had for Kyle was obvious.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

What team in that group would you have forecast to have great post-July 30 success? None of those teams had a good case of separating from the pack.

Maybe it's unusual that there is so much mediocrity in the AL now, but there is. And that was apparent in July. Didn't mean the Twins had a great chance, but it meant they had a decent chance. And the Twins FO should be expected to know that and not disregard, even if historically unusual.

No group was forecast to have great success based on what we knew July 29th or so but here is what we did know:

 

1. The Twins' peripherals were of a team 8-10 games under .500, not a .500 team.

2. The Twins had one of the worst pitching staffs in the AL.

3. The Twins had dropped like a rock in the standings in the two weeks leading to the deadline.

4. Other teams, such as KC, were coming on strong (whether it would last or not is certainly debatable).

5. The Twins front office had to assume at least one of the teams in front of the Twins would buy, improving their chances.

6. If you did every single thing right, you'd earn a single play-in game, likely on the road.

 

To me, that looks like a selling situation. It did at the time and it still does now. I can see some frustration over the Kintzler move but I would have done the same thing (and advocated it) so I'm certainly not going to complain about it now.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

If we are going to be pedantic about "fold", choose a different word for "every other team playing worse".

Good point.

 

Instead of "fold", I chose to describe those competing teams as "didn't make a run" and I called it surprising that other teams didn't make a run, although I think the Angles did make a good run at it, until their schedule got difficult.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Good point.

Instead of "fold", I chose to describe those competing teams as "didn't make a run" and I called it surprising that other teams didn't make a run, although I think the Angles did make a good run at it, until their schedule got difficult.

 

Not sure what happened to Trout and Upton....Twins caught a break there for sure. OTOH, I think the Twins did grab it and run with it (though that could be narrative playing in my head)....

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Not sure what happened to Trout and Upton....Twins caught a break there for sure. OTOH, I think the Twins did grab it and run with it (though that could be narrative playing in my head)....

They have been a tight clubhouse all year, and I think they did all rally together when the FO traded Kintzler.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

As opposed to Colon and Gibson, who before he went on his run was a DFA candidate?

 

The Twins weren't all that good. The other teams weren't all that good. But making multi-million dollar decisions about years of players can't be done on the assumption that only your team is going to all of a sudden play well, and nearly every other team is going to play worse. That's not a good process.

 

If we are going to be pedantic about "fold", choose a different word for "every other team playing worse".

I never said the Twins were definitively better than the Angels.  Point is, they weren't definitively worse, than them or any of the 2nd wild card contenders as of July 30.  And the only one that had anything resembling a definitive record advantage as of that date was the Royals, a team whose weaknesses we knew well and he had a lot of head-to-head games with which to make up ground (which we ultimately didn't even need).

 

And I think I clarified in a later post -- we didn't need to suddenly play well AND every other team to play worse.  That happened, and we won fairly comfortably by 5 games.  We really only needed one of those things to happen, or some mildly version of both, to stay in the race until the end.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I never said the Twins were definitively better than the Angels.  Point is, they weren't definitively worse, than them or any of the 2nd wild card contenders as of July 30.  And the only one that had anything resembling a definitive record advantage as of that date was the Royals, a team whose weaknesses we knew well and he had a lot of head-to-head games with which to make up ground (which we ultimately didn't even need).

 

And I think I clarified in a later post -- we didn't need to suddenly play well AND every other team to play worse.  That happened, and we won fairly comfortably by 5 games.  We really only needed one of those things to happen, or some mildly version of both, to stay in the race until the end.

 

And staying in the WC race for the 2nd spot is worth keeping a 7th-8th inning RP over? That's kind of the point.....Kintzler isn't the delta between the Twins and being legit. He was a FA. They got a player and 500K in international money for him. That should buy a decent prospect or three, in addition to the player they got.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

No group was forecast to have great success based on what we knew July 29th or so but here is what we did know:

 

1. The Twins' peripherals were of a team 8-10 games under .500, not a .500 team.

2. The Twins had one of the worst pitching staffs in the AL.

3. The Twins had dropped like a rock in the standings in the two weeks leading to the deadline.

4. Other teams, such as KC, were coming on strong (whether it would last or not is certainly debatable).

5. The Twins front office had to assume at least one of the teams in front of the Twins would buy, improving their chances.

6. If you did every single thing right, you'd earn a single play-in game, likely on the road.

 

To me, that looks like a selling situation. It did at the time and it still does now. I can see some frustration over the Kintzler move but I would have done the same thing (and advocated it) so I'm certainly not going to complain about it now.

1 & 2. Our team composition was changing. Buxton was showing up, Gibson wasn't going to be THAT bad, etc. Not enough to make us world-beaters, of course, but certainly enough that we could hang with that mediocre competition.

 

3. Our now-bWAR leader Buxton, who had been heating up at the plate at the beginning of July, missed the last 2 weeks of that month.  Even so, 2 weeks before the deadline, we took 2 of 3 from the Yankees.  We actually won a game in Houston. Our final 3 losses in July were 1-run walk-off losses, which suggests some bad luck.  Buxton returned August 1st.

 

4. "Teams" plural coming on strong?  Outside of the top 4 in the AL, I think it was just the Royals among the 2nd wild card contenders that could be characterized as "coming on strong".  And of course that was based on a 9 game win streak, 8 of which came against Detroit and the White Sox (including 3 walk off wins, which suggest some good luck). And we knew they were limited, had restrictions on buying, and still had to play us a bunch head-to-head.

 

July records

KCR 16 10
SEA 14 12

OAK 12 14

TBR 12 13

DET 12 14

BAL 12 14

TOR 12 15

TEX 11 14

MIN 10 15

LAA 9 13

 

Not a great month, but nothing that screams to me "fear the Royals! Sell!"

 

5. Every team in that group had some severe limitations to buying, at least buying enough to discourage potential competitors. If they weren't discouraged by us buying Jaime Garcia, why should we be discouraged by them buying Jeremy Hellickson or Trevor Cahill?

 

6. I assume by "play in game" you are referring to the wild card game?  If so, it's a postseason berth. While teams would obviously prefer to win the division, I think teams still take the wild card, even the 2nd spot, pretty seriously.

Edited September 29, 2017 by spycake

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

And staying in the WC race for the 2nd spot is worth keeping a 7th-8th inning RP over? That's kind of the point.....Kintzler isn't the delta between the Twins and being legit. He was a FA. They got a player and 500K in international money for him. That should buy a decent prospect or three, in addition to the player they got.

Rarely is one player the "delta between being legit".  And if you want to argue that, Kintzler in a WC race is a lot closer to being a meaningful "delta" than Watson or a late international signing will likely be.

 

And the trade return is almost immaterial to this debate.  The only evidence we have at this point suggests it was a fair market return, neither a fleecing nor being fleeced.  If the Twins turn out a hidden gem in Watson or in a late international signing, I'll be sure to revisit this, but for now I have to assume they were just fair market pieces for renting Kintzler for a playoff chase.  And in that case, I think I'd rather take my chances with Kintzler in that chase.

[Dman]

This was the post from John Bonnes after the Kintzler trade.

 

""This likely won't be a very popular opinion, but the Twins gave up on this year for maybe five guys who:
a. probably don't rank in the top 15 in their organization and
b. probably don't rank in the top 300 in the minors and
c. likely will make little to no difference in their future?

That's what Littell, Enns, & Watson are, right? And given the reliever market (which we just saw for Kintzler), they certainly wouldn't have needed to give up much to add a couple of competent relievers.

I know it's been a tough week, but this was a mistake. I don't get why they wouldn't ride it and chance the 9% chance they hat making the playoffs. It feels like panic. What did we gain exactly for giving up?"

 

This article was liked by the following members: hybridbear peterb18 bighat Dave The Dastardly Raven J DaveW whydidnt Hosken Bombo Disco Jerr Highabove shimrod Vanimal46 ChiTownTwinsFan USAFChief pbrezeasap gunnarthor Mike Sixel.

 

I assume all those posters felt that after the Kintzler trade there was no way the Twins were going to make the post season.  At least that is how I read it.  No one thought the Twins had a chance after the trade and also felt that the Twins needed to add to have a chance. 

 

In the end everyone except the FO was wrong because they made the post season without Kintzler.  So I guess I fail to see the angst for that trade.  Would it be good to have a better bullpen right now sure but was that going to be enough to move the needle enough in the post season matchups?  I don't think so, but I am sure you could make a case.  Also you would have probably had to give up someone like Hildy or Bussy or more to get a couple of two month rentals.  I think the FO did ok on this one.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

This article was liked by the following members: hybridbear peterb18 bighat Dave The Dastardly Raven J DaveW whydidnt Hosken Bombo Disco Jerr Highabove shimrod Vanimal46 ChiTownTwinsFan USAFChief pbrezeasap gunnarthor Mike Sixel.

 

I assume all those posters felt that after the Kintzler trade there was no way the Twins were going to make the post season.  At least that is how I read it.  No one thought the Twins had a chance after the trade and also felt that the Twins needed to add to have a chance. 

Please let's not resort to this kind of argument.  "Likes" for long articles do not mean agreement and especially not full agreement with every point in the article, or whatever conclusions you are now inferring from the article.

 

The Twins weren't likely to make the postseason after the trade.  But they weren't likely to make the postseason just before the trade either.  Depending on your threshold for "likely" it could be argued that no team was particularly likely to win the 2nd wild card (tops in the Fangraphs "coin flip" odds was 28%), but we knew that one of them would, and a few would stay close until late.  Some of us just wanted to be best positioned to stay in the race, and best compete if we did happen to make it.

Edited September 29, 2017 by spycake

[Mike Sixel]

 

This was the post from John Bonnes after the Kintzler trade.

 

""This likely won't be a very popular opinion, but the Twins gave up on this year for maybe five guys who:
a. probably don't rank in the top 15 in their organization and
b. probably don't rank in the top 300 in the minors and
c. likely will make little to no difference in their future?

That's what Littell, Enns, & Watson are, right? And given the reliever market (which we just saw for Kintzler), they certainly wouldn't have needed to give up much to add a couple of competent relievers.

I know it's been a tough week, but this was a mistake. I don't get why they wouldn't ride it and chance the 9% chance they hat making the playoffs. It feels like panic. What did we gain exactly for giving up?"

 

This article was liked by the following members: hybridbear peterb18 bighat Dave The Dastardly Raven J DaveW whydidnt Hosken Bombo Disco Jerr Highabove shimrod Vanimal46 ChiTownTwinsFan USAFChief pbrezeasap gunnarthor Mike Sixel.

 

I assume all those posters felt that after the Kintzler trade there was no way the Twins were going to make the post season.  At least that is how I read it.  No one thought the Twins had a chance after the trade and also felt that the Twins needed to add to have a chance. 

 

In the end everyone except the FO was wrong because they made the post season without Kintzler.  So I guess I fail to see the angst for that trade.  Would it be good to have a better bullpen right now sure but was that going to be enough to move the needle enough in the post season matchups?  I don't think so, but I am sure you could make a case.  Also you would have probably had to give up someone like Hildy or Bussy or more to get a couple of two month rentals.  I think the FO did ok on this one.

 

I like lots of stuff I don't agree with. I've made that clear on many occasions. 

[Dman]

 

Please let's not resort to this kind of argument.  "Likes" for long articles do not mean agreement and especially not full agreement with every point in the article, or whatever conclusions you are now inferring from the article.

 

The Twins weren't likely to make the postseason after the trade.  But they weren't likely to make the postseason just before the trade either.  Depending on your threshold for "likely" it could be argued that no team was particularly likely to win the 2nd wild card (tops in the Fangraphs "coin flip" odds was 28%), but we knew that one of them would, and a few would stay close until late.  Some of us just wanted to be best positioned to stay in the race, and best compete if we did happen to make it.

And I concede that the people that wanted to stay in the race were correct for believing in this team.  I sure didn't think they would make it.  All I am saying is that they did make the Playoffs even without Kintzler.  Maybe the FO did give up on the team or maybe they felt Kintzer wasn't going to be the difference I don't know their thinking I just don't think they deserve much criticism for the decision.

 

If the Twins beat New York and lose some close games in the bullpen in the next series I will eat my words and concede I wish the FO would have done more.  To me this team does not match up well with Houston or Cleveland and certainly doesn't have those teams depth. 

 

This has been awesome year of Twins BB.  I am shocked at where they are.  We just agree to disagree on how the FO handled things.

[Dman]

 

I like lots of stuff I don't agree with. I've made that clear on many occasions. 

Not trying to call anyone out.  Just trying to make a point that I felt a lot of people gave up hope when Kintzler was traded.  I guess I could have just written down the number 15. I just wanted to point out how a lot of people felt about it.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

This was the post from John Bonnes after the Kintzler trade.

 

""This likely won't be a very popular opinion, but the Twins gave up on this year for maybe five guys who:

a. probably don't rank in the top 15 in their organization and

b. probably don't rank in the top 300 in the minors and

c. likely will make little to no difference in their future?

That's what Littell, Enns, & Watson are, right? And given the reliever market (which we just saw for Kintzler), they certainly wouldn't have needed to give up much to add a couple of competent relievers.

I know it's been a tough week, but this was a mistake. I don't get why they wouldn't ride it and chance the 9% chance they hat making the playoffs. It feels like panic. What did we gain exactly for giving up?"

 

This article was liked by the following members: hybridbear peterb18 bighat Dave The Dastardly Raven J DaveW whydidnt Hosken Bombo Disco Jerr Highabove shimrod Vanimal46 ChiTownTwinsFan USAFChief pbrezeasap gunnarthor Mike Sixel.

 

I assume all those posters felt that after the Kintzler trade there was no way the Twins were going to make the post season.  At least that is how I read it.  No one thought the Twins had a chance after the trade and also felt that the Twins needed to add to have a chance. 

 

In the end everyone except the FO was wrong because they made the post season without Kintzler.  So I guess I fail to see the angst for that trade.  Would it be good to have a better bullpen right now sure but was that going to be enough to move the needle enough in the post season matchups?  I don't think so, but I am sure you could make a case.  Also you would have probably had to give up someone like Hildy or Bussy or more to get a couple of two month rentals.  I think the FO did ok on this one.

I felt the Kintzler trade hurt their chances, but didn't kill their chances. It feels like 7-dimensional chess to think F & L knew that trading Kintzler would put the team back in the WC race.

 

I like you did that research, by the way.

[Dman]

 

I felt the Kintzler trade hurt their chances, but didn't kill their chances. It feels like 7-dimensional chess to think F & L knew that trading Kintzler would put the team back in the WC race.

I like you did that research, by the way.

I guess my assumption was poor.  Sorry to put words in your mouth.  I personally don't think anyone knew what was going to happen but this team answered the challenge.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

And I concede that the people that wanted to stay in the race were correct for believing in this team.  I sure didn't think they would make it.  All I am saying is that they did make the Playoffs even without Kintzler.  Maybe the FO did give up on the team or maybe they felt Kintzer wasn't going to be the difference I don't know their thinking I just don't think they deserve much criticism for the decision.

 

If the Twins beat New York and lose some close games in the bullpen in the next series I will eat my words and concede I wish the FO would have done more.  To me this team does not match up well with Houston or Cleveland and certainly doesn't have those teams depth. 

 

This has been awesome year of Twins BB.  I am shocked at where they are.  We just agree to disagree on how the FO handled things.

We're on a baseball message board -- of course the front office deserves some criticism!

 

I concede that they made the 2nd wild card and didn't need Kintzler to do it.  The loss of Kintzler may not be a factor next week either but I'd feel better going in if we still had him.  Ultimately my concern won't be so much about the results though as the process. And I'm not sticking a fork in the FO or anything either, it's just a concern that rises a bit above simple disagreement for me.

 

But yeah, it's been a great year so far, I've had fun following and discussing this team.

[USAFChief]

Personally, I disliked them trading away, and also disliked not adding.

 

And maybe it's just me, but trading Garcia and Kintzler sure felt like a "we give up" moment for the front office.  

 

Which I also disliked.

[twinsnorth49]

Trading Kintzler and Garcia wasn't intended to make this team better and it hasn't. It was intended to make the organisation stronger in the long term, which meant giving up on the short term. I was disappointed then and I am now,  in the fact they seemed to misjudge their team and their rivals to that extent and made that decision. 

 

 

 

 

[old nurse]

 

Weird how the Twins, in what, 20 years, have never once had the players to trade for a legit pitcher. Weird how other teams do find a way. 

Weird how I only commented on this year and get blasted for past years. This management group has been only at here for this year. The comment I responded to was about this year. So please come up what would  have worked for this year, 

[old nurse]

 

No, which is why no prediction models had the Twins with a good chance of a berth.

It’s easy to look at stuff like the Tigers’ record today and assume they were always that terrible. But the Tigers were ten games under .500 at the deadline. Fewer than two months later, they are 33 games under .500 and that is AFTER they won four straight games from Aug 1-4.

 

Baseball is a silly sport. Oakland and Detroit were basically the same team at the deadline. Pretty bad but not horrific. Both sold significant pieces.

 

Detroit went 23 games under .500 down the stretch. Oakland went one game OVER .500.

Oakland had a replacement for Alonso. It also had a far more difficult first half of the schedule than last half. The models may or may not account for who tou play or how you have played that team in the past.