Article: Charting A Twins Playoff Rotation

[Han Joelo]

Colon seems like he would be a poor choice, but maybe it is a deal where he comes up with a crafty game plan and keeps a team off balance for 4-5 innings. If he's matched up against a number 4 starter, it's just might work.

 

Worrying about playoff rotations is such a first world problem.

[ThejacKmp]

 

After Santana there seems to be convincing arguments for any one of 4 other starters. 

 

Disagree. I can see arguing between Berrios and Gibson (Team JO but I can see Team Gibby). I can't see arguing between either of those guys and either Colon or Mejia, both of who are much worse.

 

And even there I think Mejia is significantly better than Colon. The Colon crowd argument seems to be along the lines of "Colon is a veteran and will know how to handle it." I've never loved the argument. Go with the best stuff - it's as likely a rookie will rise to the occasion as a veteran will rediscover something and handle the pressure.

[ThejacKmp]

 

Agree with you 100 percent. If we leave Colon out of the rotation there is no reason to have him on the roster as he is not a bullpen option.

 

I don't know if I agree with this but to play devil's advocate, Colon pitched four times in relief for the 2015 Mets postseason run and did well. Perhaps his funky slow stuff is actually a change of pace in the power playoff atmosphere?

[woolywoolhouse]

How can the Twins rotation lineup to get Berrios on the mound for a potential Game 3 in Minnesota? He has been so much better at home than on-the-road this season, to the point that I would be extremely wary of having him start anywhere other than Target Field no matter how deep the Twins play this October (and November?)

[zenser]

Do they have Santana go on a pitch count in his 9/28 start to make sure he is rested?  Something like 80 pitches?

 

I would line them up this way

 

AL WC 10/3: Santana

ALDS G1 10/5:Berrios
ALDS G2 10/6: Santana on 3 days rest
ALDS G3 10/8: Gibson

ALDS G4 10/9: Berrios

ALDS G5 10/11 Santana

[Tibs]

There's no reason to leave Colon off the playoff roster. He needs to be on it whether he pitches or not. Leaving him off would be a huge mistake

[Shaitan]

C'mon, we'll need Colon to PH in National League parks.

[Shaitan]

Also, Molitor doesn't seem to trust Mejia, so I'd assume he's the odd man out.

[Doomtints]

 

The postseason requires 4 starters excepting the very unlikely event that a team sweeps every series.

 

You say this a lot, but 3-man rotations are the norm in the playoffs. Teams want 3 starts from their ace, which only happens with a 3-man rotation for a 7-game series. It's been this way since at least the 60s, if not forever.

[John Kelsey]

Colon is a trainwreck, I'd be much happier if he didn't pitch another inning this year. 

[Respy]

Well I'll start by saying that I don't have a better suggestion, but Gibson career versus the Indians current roster has allowed a .964 OPS over 225 at bats, with 30 walks and 33 strikeouts.  

 

I was hoping that the Indians would maybe have terrible numbers versus lefties this year, to make a case for Mejia, but that's just not the case (.900 OPS versus lefties this year, about the same versus righties).

 

So my biggest question: Did they have any kind of unwritten agreement when they signed Colon?  Wouldn't you think that he only would have joined the Twins if he was going to have a playoff roster spot if he helped the team get to the postseason?

[Doomtints]

 

Colon is a trainwreck, I'd be much happier if he didn't pitch another inning this year. 

 

After the Twins clinch, there will be a couple of filler games. He should pitch.

[Doomtints]

 

So my biggest question: Did they have any kind of unwritten agreement when they signed Colon?  Wouldn't you think that he only would have joined the Twins if he was going to have a playoff roster spot if he helped the team get to the postseason?

 

Probably not. Colon will be on the playoff roster should the Twins survive the WC game, but he probably won't be in the rotation. 

[T_J]

Let's get creative. Santana in New York for the WIN!

Start Mejia verses Kluber. 

Than go Gibson Berrios and back to Santana. 

[Smarterthanyou]

You start Colon versus Kluber, because we have no chance in that game anyway.  Just throw him out there and watch the ball fly out of the park.

 

Then go Gibson, Santana, Berrios and Gibson if necessary.

[gagu]

 

The postseason requires 4 starters excepting the very unlikely event that a team sweeps every series. And even then someone would be starting on short rest twice. As h2oface points out, we don't have to consider who the 4th starter would be until game 4 of the ALDS but we still need to set our postseason roster to account for that. So who is more likely to pitch well on that night, Colon or Mejia? Or Santiago? Or Gee? It's an interesting question.

If you use 4 starters, there would never be a need for anyone to pitch with 3 days rest. If every game goes to the limit, there are still 10 off days guaranteed.  Slotting the starters by order of preference, the #1 and #2 pitchers would each get 6 starts, the #3 pitcher 5 starts, and #4, 3 starts. Regardless of sweeping, going the limit, or anything in between, if everyone always gets at least 4 days rest, the #4 starter gets called on 3 times. The ALDS is the one series that allows the team to nix the #4 starter completely by having only the #! pitcher go on 3 days rest. That's because there is a day off between games 2 and 3, and another between potential games 4 and 5. 

[laloesch]

If by some miracle the Twins survive Yankee Stadium and move onto Cleveland, the Indians would DESTROY Colon.  Why forfeit a game when you don't have to.  Not opposed to him as bullpen help, but starting? NO WAY!

[jmlease1]

I'm with Nick on this one. Bartolo looks cooked again, and while I'm still not sold on The Tease (Kyle Gibson) I'd rather start a guy that could actually be with this team next year than a guy who definitely won't.

 

Nice to be worrying about such matters!

 

I'm just hoping Sano can come back by the Detroit series and get a few games in to get his timing back. Adding his bat in there really makes this a formidable lineup.

[laloesch]

 

Mejia can't get out of the 5th.

At least Colon can eat innings. (No pun)

Also as mentioned he seems to be loved on the bench, I think he helps calm the team. They seem to have a lot more comeback wins then they did previously

Mejia could be a good long guy out of the pen in the playoffs IMO.

 

Colon has failed to reach 90 pitches in each of his last 4 starts.  He's also lost 4 in a row and his ERA has been 6+ since joining the Twins and he's trending the wrong direction again and badly (was 8.19 era when he joined them). 

 

Not sure why this is even a discussion at this point.  You have to go with Meija as the 4th starter.  If they want to keep him on the roster, fine... back up starter, limited reliever or mop up in a blow out but that is all.  Cleveland would destroy Colon.  

[spinowner]

 

You say this a lot, but 3-man rotations are the norm in the playoffs. Teams want 3 starts from their ace, which only happens with a 3-man rotation for a 7-game series. It's been this way since at least the 60s, if not forever.

Actually a 4-man rotation is the norm. Few teams can make it through three series with only three starters unless there's a sweep or two. In the 60's when there was only the WS, yes. Into the 90's when there were only two rounds, sometimes. Now that there are 3 rounds plus a WC game, hardly ever.

[SweetOne69]

 

Also, Molitor doesn't seem to trust Mejia, so I'd assume he's the odd man out.

Until Mejia can consistently pitch 6+ innings, I wouldn't trust him either.  In his 20 starts this year he has only pitched 6+ innings 4 times.

[yarnivek1972]

Until Mejia can consistently pitch 6+ innings, I wouldn't trust him either. In his 20 starts this year he has only pitched 6+ innings 4 times.

I'm not sure what the relevance of pitching 6 innings plus means for the postseason. The recent trend in the playoffs has beento err on the side of pulling a guy too early rather than leaving him in too long.

 

I'd rather have a guy be effective for 5, heck even 4 innings, then get beaten up slowly over 6 or 7. With all the off days in the playoffs, a team can literally use every reliever in every game for 15-20 pitches.

[h2oface]

 

How can the Twins rotation lineup to get Berrios on the mound for a potential Game 3 in Minnesota? He has been so much better at home than on-the-road this season, to the point that I would be extremely wary of having him start anywhere other than Target Field no matter how deep the Twins play this October (and November?)

 

Great point...... I think you are absolutely right!

[h2oface]

 

Well I'll start by saying that I don't have a better suggestion, but Gibson career versus the Indians current roster has allowed a .964 OPS over 225 at bats, with 30 walks and 33 strikeouts.  

 

I was hoping that the Indians would maybe have terrible numbers versus lefties this year, to make a case for Mejia, but that's just not the case (.900 OPS versus lefties this year, about the same versus righties).

 

So my biggest question: Did they have any kind of unwritten agreement when they signed Colon?  Wouldn't you think that he only would have joined the Twins if he was going to have a playoff roster spot if he helped the team get to the postseason?

 

Great points. But when you are playing a team that is as amazingly hot as Cleveland has been, it seems it doesn't matter who pitches against them. It might be best to not have any of them pitch against Cleveland in the upcoming 3 game series! Oh wait.... we still haven't clinched the Wild Card! Realistically, it is going to take a best of season pitching performance against the Yankees and Cleveland to have a chance. And you have to go with the best we have, even though, including Santana and Berrios, unless they are absolutely on their game, it will take the bats to win any games.

Edited September 25, 2017 by h2oface

[h2oface]

 

After the Twins clinch, there will be a couple of filler games. He should pitch.

 

There are others that could pitch the filler games. Besides, when Gardenhire decided to rest the troops after clinching in 2010, it started the culture of losing. Stay hot, stay focused, and try to win every game. It is good practice.

[Dantes929]

 

You start Colon versus Kluber, because we have no chance in that game anyway.  Just throw him out there and watch the ball fly out of the park.

 

Then go Gibson, Santana, Berrios and Gibson if necessary.

Kluver is 8-5 against the Twins lifetime with a very good but not insurmountable 3.31 ERA.   He is 0-0 against the Twins this year even though he did not allow a run in 7 innings.   A game the Twins won by the way so I wouldn't go so far as saying we have no chance.   When against a superior team I am not opposed to arranging our own rotation to match up differently than 1vs1, 2vs2, etc.

 

[Dantes929]

 

Great points. But when you are playing a team that is as amazingly hot as Cleveland has been, it seems it doesn't matter who pitches against them. It might be best to not have any of them pitch against Cleveland in the upcoming 3 game series! Oh wait.... we still haven't clinched the Wild Card! Realistically, it is going to take a best of season pitching performance against the Yankees and Cleveland to have a chance. And you have to go with the best we have, even though, including Santana and Berrios, unless they are absolutely on their game, it will take the bats to win any games.

You are right.  We still have to beat the Yankees to even have the discussion about the Indians.  They have been an astounding 29-2 in their recent hot streak but that is the thing about hot streaks.  They come to an end.    Look at the Dodgers this year.   Starting to be called a Super Team and then lost 16 of 17 games.    There is some pressure on a team that comes in super hot.   Indians are much more the team that was 10-6 against us than the team that has been 29-2 even though the 29-2 blinds people to the idea.   

[Dantes929]

 

There are others that could pitch the filler games. Besides, when Gardenhire decided to rest the troops after clinching in 2010, it started the culture of losing. Stay hot, stay focused, and try to win every game. It is good practice.

I don't think there has ever been consensus on that approach though I don't disagree with it.   87 team lost their last 5 before the playoffs and I didn't get the sense they were trying all that hard.

[prouster]

Unthinkable indeed.Per MLB.com, the post season probability for the Twins was 4% on August 4.

This raises an interesting question. Are these numbers meant to be predictive, or are they more, "here are the odds of a team making the playoffs having done what this team has done"? Does that language capture the difference I'm trying to describe?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I'm not sure what the relevance of pitching 6 innings plus means for the postseason. The recent trend in the playoffs has beento err on the side of pulling a guy too early rather than leaving him in too long.

I'd rather have a guy be effective for 5, heck even 4 innings, then get beaten up slowly over 6 or 7. With all the off days in the playoffs, a team can literally use every reliever in every game for 15-20 pitches.

Yes, this. With a long bullpen in the postseason, getting 6+ out of your starter isn't as important.