Article: MIN 12, DET 1: Once Again, The Twins Bounce Back

[drjim]

 

I wish just the opposite...who cares if the starter gets a W? It's the team W that goes on the record.

I want Molitor gone, but not because he's too quick to pull starters. In fact it's just the opposite...far too often he waits until a fading starter has damaged the game before pulling him.

Hopefully last night was a sign of progress for Molitor, and he is more likely to pull a starter a hitter or 2 too early, than a hitter or 2 too late.

He did exactly the right thing last night. I hope it wasn't just pitch count driven. I hope he looked at the next couple hitters and said, "if we get beat, it won't be these two hitters off my LH starter."

 

I think it was a good example of Molitor being aggressive when the win was there and the bullpen was in a position to cover the innings. He's been doing it all season.

 

The times he keeps a starter in too long, are when the bullpen is extra short. That simple. Which is why I don't think changing out Molitor will look any different if the front office isn't serious about upgrading the bullpen.

[Anton Mett]

At what point can they just plan on using a Mejia/Gee tandem?  If these two can both go through 4 innings effectively, just do it.  If Gee knows it's coming, he can plan for it like a normal starter would rather than think of himself as a reliever who may or may not get the call on any given day.  If they can turn two marginal starters and one reliever into the same results as one very good starter and 2-3 relievers... I won't say I prefer the marginal starters option, but I will say it's what we've got access to.  Might as well do it on purpose.

 

[LimestoneBaggy]

 

Sure, but it wasn't a butt slide either.  His knees, hands, and wrists were making impact with the ground, and he was tumbling over after the catch.

 

Players should almost never risk crashing into each other at any time, and not often crashing into a wall either.  But the standards are changed in a blowout -- heck, Granite himself was in the game as defensive replacement to reduce injury risk to a regular. But he's important enough (4th viable outfielder) that I think I'd still want him to exercise a bit more caution in that situation too.

 

I get your thoughts, but as life-line bad outfielder, it's incredibly difficult to pull up on a ball you can catch so you don't get hurt (in fact, I've always thought it bad ju-ju to even think about a letting a ball fall). If you can get it, get it; otherwise, you start to think too much when going for a ball (you kind of need to operate on instincts and let it fly to get to the ones others don't get".

 

But I can see your point (I've also run head on into a fence in beer league softball, so what do I know)....

[Dantes929]

 

We are making the same point. He has no frigging idea what he is doing. He pulls people too early, he pulls people too late. He has no game awareness and no idea how to evaluate performance. He makes his decisions in a bubble.

Sorry.  I can't let this go.    You think Molitor pulls pitchers too early and Chief thinks he pulls them too late and you think you are making the same point?   Many thought Gardy pulled pitchers too early and many thought he pulled them too late.   Many thought Kelly pulled pitchers too early and many thought he pulled them too late.   I actually respect your opinion in this case because you said he pulled him too early even though it worked out fine.   Most times fans criticize a manager is the hindsight factor.    I said most.    Anyway here is a list of managers that have known when to pull a pitcher and when to leave him in.

1.

 

That's the whole list.

[drjim]

 

Sorry.  I can't let this go.    You think Molitor pulls pitchers too early and Chief thinks he pulls them too late and you think you are making the same point?   Many thought Gardy pulled pitchers too early and many thought he pulled them too late.   Many thought Kelly pulled pitchers too early and many thought he pulled them too late.   I actually respect your opinion in this case because you said he pulled him too early even though it worked out fine.   Most times fans criticize a manager is the hindsight factor.    I said most.    Anyway here is a list of managers that have known when to pull a pitcher and when to leave him in.

1.

 

That's the whole list.

 

Managers really can't win*. Everything they do will be criticized by someone, and by firing him and replacing him that specific flaw will magically be fixed, even though the complaints are, as you noted, completely opposite.

 

*Not that they deserve sympathy, they get plenty well compensated.

[USAFChief]

 

I think it was a good example of Molitor being aggressive when the win was there and the bullpen was in a position to cover the innings. He's been doing it all season.

 

The times he keeps a starter in too long, are when the bullpen is extra short. That simple. Which is why I don't think changing out Molitor will look any different if the front office isn't serious about upgrading the bullpen.

We'll have to agree to disagree.  The status of the bullpen (*mostly) has nothing to do with when/if Molitor pulls his starter.

 

And it shouldn't.  He's got bullpen arms, he needs to use them to best effect, even if they're not good options, or his best options.  

 

*In the 2 or 3 instances per year when the bullpen truly IS taxed, I can see asking a starter for an extra out or two past when he should be removed.  And it truly ISN'T more than a couple times a year that situation arises.

[Doomtints]

 

Sorry.  I can't let this go.    You think Molitor pulls pitchers too early and Chief thinks he pulls them too late and you think you are making the same point?   

 

I don't think Molitor "pulls pitchers too early." Search the forums, you will find me saying that he pulls pitchers "too late" -- after the game is out of control.

 

Think about what is truly being said a little more. I already said it explicitly in what you quoted, but I can say it again if it helps you "let it go": Molitor has no idea when to pull a pitcher. Too early, too late -- who cares? It's the same problem. He is terrible on both ends of this.

Edited September 22, 2017 by Doomtints

[drjim]

 

Molitor has no idea when to pull a pitcher. Too early, too late -- who cares? It's the same problem. He is terrible on both ends of this.

 

This doesn't seem possible. Seems it would have to be one or the other.

 

I'm sympathetic to the too late argument, I just agree to disagree because I think Molitor is handling a weak bullpen generally well. When he does leave a starter in too long it is almost always (in my memory) a result of not having his best relievers available for enough innings to cover the rest of the game.

[ThejacKmp]

 

Molitor is weird... Pulling the starting pitcher after 4 2/3 innings so he can't get the win when the tying run is not at the plate. He has done this more than once to young pitchers, pulling them when they have just 1 out to go to get the win.

 

I really hope he's gone. I'm tired of the embarrassing way he manages pitching during games.

 

Ridiculous.

 

Wins are increasingly not used in evaluating pitchers, even in arbitration. Mejia didn't lose anything with this - he has an equal place in the Twins plans, his salary won't change, he'll still be in the mix for the rotation next year (and likely a front runner).

 

Molly's job is to win games not to get Mejia a made up stat. Gee was a better choice than Mejia, especially with the swollen bullpens of September.

 

You're looking for a reason to hate Molly here.

[ThejacKmp]

 

We are making the same point. He has no frigging idea what he is doing. He pulls people too early, he pulls people too late. He has no game awareness and no idea how to evaluate performance. He makes his decisions in a bubble.

 

Or perhaps the guy in the dugout knows more than you do sitting on your couch. He's not rolling a dice to see what to do like it's dungeons and dragons.

[twinfan]

Molly is pulling his pitchers very quickly. The bullpen is going to have to carry that weight the rest of the season.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Or perhaps the guy in the dugout knows more than you do sitting on your couch. He's not rolling a dice to see what to do like it's dungeons and dragons.

 

so, never question the manager? Not sure I understand the post, frankly. Help me out.

[ThejacKmp]

 

And it shouldn't.  He's got bullpen arms, he needs to use them to best effect, even if they're not good options, or his best options.  

 

DrJim was saying that when the bullpen is short, Molly leaves a guy in. That means he doesn't have bullpen arms and the best use of his pitching staff may be to leave a tiring starter in rather than go to an even worse reliever.

 

I feel like the criticism of Mauer has gotten way too intense.* I'm not sure he's the guy going forward but this team is vastly outperforming its potential. Multiple young guys have taken steps and Molitor was cobbled together decent results from a bullpen and starting rotation that is bereft of impact arms. He's got the Twins in the driver's seat a year after losing 100+ games. That's pretty dang good, let's not overreact to every single small thing he does.

 

* Except the bunting. Enough with the sacrifice bunting. If he loses his job I hope they say, "It was only because of the bunting."

[ThejacKmp]

 

I don't think Molitor "pulls pitchers too early." Search the forums, you will find me saying that he pulls pitchers "too late" -- after the game is out of control.

 

Think about what is truly being said a little more. I already said it explicitly in what you quoted, but I can say it again if it helps you "let it go": Molitor has no idea when to pull a pitcher. Too early, too late -- who cares? It's the same problem. He is terrible on both ends of this.

 

You base this on watching TV? I'm sorry, it is basically impossible to determine when too early and too late is for a pitcher. I'm 100% certain that Molitor is better at this than you are. I'm not saying there's not a better person for the job next year but there's no way you can magically know that a guy was in too long or not long enough.

 

Your original point was to get Mejia the win. That's been pretty clearly shown to be ludicrous (made up stat, rested bullpen, pennant race, pitch count etc.) Perhaps time for you to let it go.

[drjim]

 

DrJim was saying that when the bullpen is short, Molly leaves a guy in. That means he doesn't have bullpen arms and the best use of his pitching staff may be to leave a tiring starter in rather than go to an even worse reliever.

 

I feel like the criticism of Mauer has gotten way too intense.* I'm not sure he's the guy going forward but this team is vastly outperforming its potential. Multiple young guys have taken steps and Molitor was cobbled together decent results from a bullpen and starting rotation that is bereft of impact arms. He's got the Twins in the driver's seat a year after losing 100+ games. That's pretty dang good, let's not overreact to every single small thing he does.

 

* Except the bunting. Enough with the sacrifice bunting. If he loses his job I hope they say, "It was only because of the bunting."

 

+1 on the bunting. I am really curious what the conversation is between Molitor and the front office on this. It is certainly possible they feel bunting is a better numbers play than is shown by win probability charts.

[USAFChief]

 

DrJim was saying that when the bullpen is short, Molly leaves a guy in. That means he doesn't have bullpen arms and the best use of his pitching staff may be to leave a tiring starter in rather than go to an even worse reliever.

 

I feel like the criticism of Mauer has gotten way too intense.* I'm not sure he's the guy going forward but this team is vastly outperforming its potential. Multiple young guys have taken steps and Molitor was cobbled together decent results from a bullpen and starting rotation that is bereft of impact arms. He's got the Twins in the driver's seat a year after losing 100+ games. That's pretty dang good, let's not overreact to every single small thing he does.

 

* Except the bunting. Enough with the sacrifice bunting. If he loses his job I hope they say, "It was only because of the bunting."

I don't think determining who should be pitching is a small thing,  I don't think Molitor is very good at it, and I'm certainly not forming my opinion solely on last night.

 

 

 

 

[ThejacKmp]

 

so, never question the manager? Not sure I understand the post, frankly. Help me out.

 

You can question a manager. Question overall trends like sacrifice bunting in the 3rd inning - that's a basic strategy that we can get into. Question lineup construction - another thing that the layman can have an informed opinion on. Question leaving the starter in against the platoon advantage - there's good stats on this.

 

But when its something like "when is this pitcher tired" and you're saying "Molitor either leaves guys in too long or too short" and then going back and forth with people, you're officially just complaining. There's a level of knowledge and access that make it impossible for a guy watching on TV to know more than someone right there. Molitor and co. have a chat with the pitcher every inning, they're talking to the catcher, they're watching from 90 feet away - there's just a whole mountain of knowledge.

 

The average fan brings "well, he gave up a hit so they should have pulled him." That's not particularly useful or valid. That make sense?

[Dantes929]

 

I don't think Molitor "pulls pitchers too early." Search the forums, you will find me saying that he pulls pitchers "too late" -- after the game is out of control.

 

Think about what is truly being said a little more. I already said it explicitly in what you quoted, but I can say it again if it helps you "let it go": Molitor has no idea when to pull a pitcher. Too early, too late -- who cares? It's the same problem. He is terrible on both ends of this.

But you said Molitor pulled Mejia too soon and he has done it more than once.  Chief said he wished the exact opposite.    You said he pulled him too soon and Chief said he did  the exact right thing.    You said you and Chief are saying the same thing when you said  the opposite.     In fact here is your first quote

 

"Molitor is weird... Pulling the starting pitcher after 4 2/3 innings so he can't get the win when the tying run is not at the plate. He has done this more than once to young pitchers, pulling them when they have just 1 out to go to get the win."  I am thinking about what is truly being said here.   I don't know how to interpret it other than that you think he pulled the pitcher too early and that he has done it more than once.  You both referred to a very specific game, had the opposite opinion, which is fine.   Its the conclusion I don't get.    You can say again that Molitor pulls pitchers too late and too soon which may or may not be true but you can't convince me he can do them both on the same play.

[ThejacKmp]

 

I don't think determining who should be pitching is a small thing,  I don't think Molitor is very good at it, and I'm certainly not forming my opinion solely on last night.

 

Provide some evidence? Some concept that isn't "my opinion from watching?" Is he leaving starters in too long? Pulling them? Using a bullpen arm he shouldn't?

 

I just think that we fall into traps of confirmation bias when it comes to this stuff. He's not regularly leaving in guys when the platoon edge isn't with them. He's doing the best with a motley crew of pitchers. Sometimes Boshers has to pitch, that's life. Occasionally Colon gets to try the 4th, that's having bad middle relief.

[Tom Froemming]

Seems to be an odd time to complain about pitching staff management. They gave up one run last night.

[Mike Sixel]

 

You can question a manager. Question overall trends like sacrifice bunting in the 3rd inning - that's a basic strategy that we can get into. Question lineup construction - another thing that the layman can have an informed opinion on. Question leaving the starter in against the platoon advantage - there's good stats on this.

 

But when its something like "when is this pitcher tired" and you're saying "Molitor either leaves guys in too long or too short" and then going back and forth with people, you're officially just complaining. There's a level of knowledge and access that make it impossible for a guy watching on TV to know more than someone right there. Molitor and co. have a chat with the pitcher every inning, they're talking to the catcher, they're watching from 90 feet away - there's just a whole mountain of knowledge.

 

The average fan brings "well, he gave up a hit so they should have pulled him." That's not particularly useful or valid. That make sense?

 

yes, thanks. that does help!

 

and no more shots at D&D please....

[Mike Sixel]

 

You can question a manager. Question overall trends like sacrifice bunting in the 3rd inning - that's a basic strategy that we can get into. Question lineup construction - another thing that the layman can have an informed opinion on. Question leaving the starter in against the platoon advantage - there's good stats on this.

 

But when its something like "when is this pitcher tired" and you're saying "Molitor either leaves guys in too long or too short" and then going back and forth with people, you're officially just complaining. There's a level of knowledge and access that make it impossible for a guy watching on TV to know more than someone right there. Molitor and co. have a chat with the pitcher every inning, they're talking to the catcher, they're watching from 90 feet away - there's just a whole mountain of knowledge.

 

The average fan brings "well, he gave up a hit so they should have pulled him." That's not particularly useful or valid. That make sense?

 

actually, third time thru the order penalty doesn't require any fan knowledge .....it's just plainly there.

[USAFChief]

 

Seems to be an odd time to complain about pitching staff management. They gave up one run last night.

Perhaps because Molitor pulled his starter before serious damage...   

[yarnivek1972]

 

Provide some evidence? Some concept that isn't "my opinion from watching?" Is he leaving starters in too long? Pulling them? Using a bullpen arm he shouldn't?

 

I just think that we fall into traps of confirmation bias when it comes to this stuff. He's not regularly leaving in guys when the platoon edge isn't with them. He's doing the best with a motley crew of pitchers. Sometimes Boshers has to pitch, that's life. Occasionally Colon gets to try the 4th, that's having bad middle relief.

 

 

Here's just one example, that happens to be from last night.  He pulls Mejia (which, I am actually fine with) to bring in Dillon Gee to face Miguel Cabrera.  Cabrera was 4 for 6 with 2 HR against Gee before last night.  That Cabrera got a hit that extended the inning and, very briefly, made the game interesting, was entirely predictable.  There has to be somebody in that pen that has a better mark than that against Cabrera.

 

That is flat out poor bullpen management.

[Mr. Brooks]

Here's just one example, that happens to be from last night. He pulls Mejia (which, I am actually fine with) to bring in Dillon Gee to face Miguel Cabrera. Cabrera was 4 for 6 with 2 HR against Gee before last night. That Cabrera got a hit that extended the inning and, very briefly, made the game interesting, was entirely predictable. There has to be somebody in that pen that has a better mark than that against Cabrera.

 

That is flat out poor bullpen management.

A 6 at bat sample size has no meaning whatsoever.

 

That's actually a check in the "pro" column for me, that Molitor is not looking at silly 6 AB sample size batter vs pitcher stats like Gardy did.

[ThejacKmp]

 

Here's just one example, that happens to be from last night.  He pulls Mejia (which, I am actually fine with) to bring in Dillon Gee to face Miguel Cabrera.  Cabrera was 4 for 6 with 2 HR against Gee before last night.  That Cabrera got a hit that extended the inning and, very briefly, made the game interesting, was entirely predictable.  There has to be somebody in that pen that has a better mark than that against Cabrera.

 

That is flat out poor bullpen management.

 

4 for 6 is an incredibly small sample (though not good). You use predictable wrong and you're creating a certainty out of hindsight.

 

A bigger sample is Cabrera's performance this year. He has a .928 OPS vs LH and a .671 OPS vs. RH. I have no issue with Molly pulling Mejia. You could argue that Gee isn't the guy but again, the sample is small and Gee has been pitching really well lately. I don't think that's a great example of awful bullpen management.

[ThejacKmp]

 

actually, third time thru the order penalty doesn't require any fan knowledge .....it's just plainly there.

 

That's a good point. Though I still think it's more complicate than that and I think coaches there can have  sense when the other team hasn't seen a guy very well or when a guy has a wrinkle he can throw in to keep them off balance (e.g. he's been setting things up with fastballs and then going breaking balls and he can flip those). I don't think anyone would say "Third time through, pull him overtime." You'd be pulling pitchers when they're cruising through at 60 pitches and those same people would be screaming about pulling the starter too early.

 

weirdly, I've been looking at a lot of pitchers splits and third time through isn't always bad. Mejia for instance sees his OPS jump the second time through the order and then the third time, it settles back down to about the first. He's the guy I remember but kind of interesting. Points to a reason Molly may have a quick pull with him and also is indicative that he may be better used going once through the lineup and then handing it off to a RH like Gee.

[ThejacKmp]

 

yes, thanks. that does help!

 

and no more shots at D&D please....

 

I come from a Magic the Gathering family. There's tension with D&D . . .

[Doomtints]

 

He's not rolling a dice to see what to do like it's dungeons and dragons.

 

Please provide proof this is how he isn't doing it.

[Craig Arko]

yes, thanks. that does help!

 

and no more shots at D&D please....

Of course if you throw dice enough times the time series converges exactly to the mean of the distribution.