Article: NYY 2, MIN 1: Garcia, Yankees Bullpen Dominate Twins

[OldTimeTwinkie]

T he only bunt I would have done is with Mauer on a squeeze against Chapman. Mauer hasnt come close against him.

[Dantes929]

 

Here's a link to Tom Tango's run expectancy matrix. I believe this is the same information that's in Keith Law's book Smart Baseball. 

 

If you look at the middle table, that is giving the odds that your team scores at least one run in an inning in any give scenario. With a runner on first base and nobody out, you have a 41.6% chance of scoring a run. With a runner on second and one out, you have a 39.7% chance of scoring a run. So bunting a guy to second to record the first out decreases your likelihood of tying the game.

 

 

 

 

 

I am on board with all of your analysis but the difference in scoring one run and not scoring a run is 2% and while I respect all your analysis on this particular situation I am pretty sure that if he walks Granite then Chapman comes in and your chances of scoring a run drop dramatically if he is on and I don't think we can argue about him being on.  So all this talk about bunting in the late innings is burying the lead which is that Garcia struck out 9 in 5.2 innings.    Just like Estrada the other day when a guy is in a groove and has your timing all messed up THAT is the time to bunt and for the purposes of base hits rather than sacrifice.    Maybe I have no stats to back it up but it sure seems to disrupt the pitcher's rhythm, heart beat and pitch selection when guys get on and they get on by making the pitcher get off the mound and run a little bit.

[crop duster]

T he only bunt I would have done is with Mauer on a squeeze against Chapman. Mauer hasnt come close against him.

Except for the game against Cincinnati a few yrs back where a Mauer double followed by a willingham dinger gave chapman his first BS for that yr.

[Otto von Ballpark]

You caught me... 98% is a made-up number, but I'm pretty certain that it is way over 50% (again, in a one-run game, and with a bottom-of-the-order hitter batting). I woudln't have done it. I at least would have had the batter (if they weren't bunting, it would have been Castro) take a strike. But it's hard to get bent out of shape.

Seems like this has been happening a lot lately, though. At what point are you concerned? When Molitor bunts with Sano down 3 runs or something ridiculous? That's not going to happen, but mildly questionable bunts every other day should add up to something...

[gunnarthor]

I'm starting to think this team is winning despite the manager and FO. The FO waived the white flag at the deadline and has not been able to stop Molly from all these stupid bunts. Sure, they'll let him leave after the season but 51 sac bunts? That's terrible.

 

On the plus side, the players are fun to watch generally.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Seems like this has been happening a lot lately, though. At what point are you concerned? When Molitor bunts with Sano down 3 runs or something ridiculous? That's not going to happen, but mildly questionable bunts every other day should add up to something...

 

I didn't like when he asked Polanco or Rosario to bunt in 7th or 8th innings. Any time before the 7th inning is just silly. 

[gocgo]

 

I am on board with all of your analysis but the difference in scoring one run and not scoring a run is 2% and while I respect all your analysis on this particular situation I am pretty sure that if he walks Granite then Chapman comes in and your chances of scoring a run drop dramatically if he is on and I don't think we can argue about him being on.  So all this talk about bunting in the late innings is burying the lead which is that Garcia struck out 9 in 5.2 innings.    Just like Estrada the other day when a guy is in a groove and has your timing all messed up THAT is the time to bunt and for the purposes of base hits rather than sacrifice.    Maybe I have no stats to back it up but it sure seems to disrupt the pitcher's rhythm, heart beat and pitch selection when guys get on and they get on by making the pitcher get off the mound and run a little bit.

I agree with you.  Bottom line is that the Yankees are better than their record.  I'm not sure the same can be said about us...and it gives me great pain to admit that about the Yankees.  They are set up to make it a six inning game.  If you don't get to their starter, their odds of winning go way up due to their bullpen.  Compare that to our bullpen (we hold our breath).  If we don't get swept, it's a win.

[crop duster]

How many times did the Yankees bunt last night? More than the Twins no?

[Tom Froemming]

 

How many times did the Yankees bunt last night? More than the Twins no?

I don't think they laid down any sac bunts, right? They stole second base four times, but I don't think they ever bunted to advance anyone.

[yarnivek1972]

You caught me... 98% is a made-up number, but I'm pretty certain that it is way over 50% (again, in a one-run game, and with a bottom-of-the-order hitter batting). I woudln't have done it. I at least would have had the batter (if they weren't bunting, it would have been Castro) take a strike. But it's hard to get bent out of shape.

But they pinch hit for Castro. To bunt. That's ridiculous in a one run game. First of all, as a guy who isn't a good hitter, I would guess bunting is probably something he does pretty well.

 

Second, you have Kepler and Vargas on the bench. Betances has allowed 9 extra base hits out of the 28 hits he has allowed this year- plus all the walks. An extra base hit ties the game for sure and potentially sets up taking a lead. Vargas and especially Kepler have done very well vs RHP.

 

If you are going to hit for Castro, maybe use a guy that can, you know, actually hit.

[SwainZag]

 

Here's a link to Tom Tango's run expectancy matrix. I believe this is the same information that's in Keith Law's book Smart Baseball. 

 

If you look at the middle table, that is giving the odds that your team scores at least one run in an inning in any give scenario. With a runner on first base and nobody out, you have a 41.6% chance of scoring a run. With a runner on second and one out, you have a 39.7% chance of scoring a run. So bunting a guy to second to record the first out decreases your likelihood of tying the game.

 

But lets breakdown what we're looking at here. This is big data. These tables are generated off actual game situations from 2010-15. Like, every inning of every game. In a way that's great, because the sample size is huge, but on the other hand it fails to account for the specific situation in the particular game you're watching. 

 

But here are a couple numbers that make it seem like the bunt was an even worse call in this particular scenario: 

-Dellin Betances has walked 17.3% of the batters he's faced this year. So there's a chance he could've just walked Castro/Granite and advanced the tying tun to second base anyway without recording an out.

-One of the better reasons to bunt is to try and avoid the double play, but Betances is terrible at inducing them. He's gotten 10 DPs in 199 career opportunities. That's 5%, league average is 11%.

 

So it was over three times as likely that Betances simply walks the tying run to second base than it was that he was going to get a double play. I know those aren't the only two possible outcomes, and the scales are always tipped in favor of the pitcher recording an out, but given both the big data and the specific data in this case, there is very little to support bunting in that situation.

 

The other problem with bunting there is it also greatly reduced the chance the Twins would score multiple runs and take the lead. That's the top table at the link I provided. With a runner at first a no outs, you're going to score .859 runs that inning on average. With a runner on second and one out, that drops to .664.

 

This is great Tom, but like you said it takes all situations, every inning of every game but doesn't take batter or pitcher into consideration.  You have Bentances on the mound who strikes out 39.4% of batters he faces and when the ball is hit into play he forces grounders 49% of the time.  I could do the math, but I would have to think there is a much higher chance of a K or GIDP than there is a BB.  Also, if the bunt is put into play, there are chances he beats it out and/or there is an error on the play.

 

Meanwhile....even if Granite does get walked, someone has to put the ball into play.  I guess it's just a personal opinion, but I don't mind the bunt in this situation with a weak hitter at the plate.  Your good hitters need to come thru.  Mauer K'd, Buck flied out.  End of game.

 

Most times I am very against the sac bunt, this wasn't one of them.

[yarnivek1972]

This is great Tom, but like you said it takes all situations, every inning of every game but doesn't take batter or pitcher into consideration. You have Bentances on the mound who strikes out 39.4% of batters he faces and when the ball is hit into play he forces grounders 49% of the time. I could do the math, but I would have to think there is a much higher chance of a K or GIDP than there is a BB. Also, if the bunt is put into play, there are chances he beats it out and/or there is an error on the play.

 

Meanwhile....even if Granite does get walked, someone has to put the ball into play. I guess it's just a personal opinion, but I don't mind the bunt in this situation with a weak hitter at the plate. Your good hitters need to come thru. Mauer K'd, Buck flied out. End of game.

 

Most times I am very against the sac bunt, this wasn't one of them.

Then put in a better hitter. Kepler and Vargas both hit RHP very well.

[SwainZag]

 

Then put in a better hitter. Kepler and Vargas both hit RHP very well.

 

That's true they could have.  Vargas is also a strikeout machine and they knew they would be pinch hitting for Adrianza who was due up next.  There were other directions, but I am not going to roast them for the once they chose.  

[Mike Sixel]

I do agree, the key take away from that game is that the Yankees are probably just plain better than the Twins overall.....

[yarnivek1972]

That's true they could have. Vargas is also a strikeout machine and they knew they would be pinch hitting for Adrianza who was due up next. There were other directions, but I am not going to roast them for the once they chose.

I don't happen to agree that pinch hitting for Adrianza is as automatic as hitting for Castro. Adrianza sports a .333 obp vs rhp this year and Betances is a walk machine.

[Tom Froemming]

 

This is great Tom, but like you said it takes all situations, every inning of every game but doesn't take batter or pitcher into consideration.  You have Bentances on the mound who strikes out 39.4% of batters he faces and when the ball is hit into play he forces grounders 49% of the time.  I could do the math, but I would have to think there is a much higher chance of a K or GIDP than there is a BB.  Also, if the bunt is put into play, there are chances he beats it out and/or there is an error on the play.

 

Meanwhile....even if Granite does get walked, someone has to put the ball into play.  I guess it's just a personal opinion, but I don't mind the bunt in this situation with a weak hitter at the plate.  Your good hitters need to come thru.  Mauer K'd, Buck flied out.  End of game.

 

Most times I am very against the sac bunt, this wasn't one of them.

The odds are always in favor of the pitcher recording an out ... that's exactly why outs are so precious.

[yarnivek1972]

 

The odds are always in favor of the pitcher recording an out ... that's exactly why outs are so precious.

Unless your hitter's name is Ted Williams.  

[tvagle]

Hardest thing for young hitters to master is hitting soft-throwing pitchers

Especially for aggressive swingers pressing a little too much

 

Twins have struggle all season long against soft tossing pitchers (Estrada, Tomlin, Garcia, Vargas, Fiers, Griffin)

 

Doesn't bode well tonight against CC

 

We will know early if the Right-handed batters are staying up the middle and away