Article: Twins Playoff Push A Truly Cohesive Effort

[jimbo92107]

Excellent article, really sums up how this whole team has improved, not just a few guys.

 

I've been especially impressed with Joe Mauer's gradual climb back to the level of superstar. After the concussions and other physical problems, who among us predicted that Mauer would be anything more than an average player in 2017? Not me, that's for sure. Yet he quickly established himself as a top fielding first baseman, and then got even better. We carped about how often he hit two-hoppers to second, how his bat seemed a little late on too many pitches. Then around mid-season, Mauer's bat started to come around. He started squaring up more balls, driving them hard to left, to center, and even pulling some balls with authority. 

 

Last night's absolutely tattooed grand salami was not a fluke. It was a culminating statement from a former superstar catcher. He is now rising to superstar status as a first baseman. He now can bash pitches in all directions, and his defense is at the very highest level for that position. He has his eye back, his swing is back, and he appears to be pulling balls to right field with more power. Best of all, knowing Joe Mauer's history, there is no reason to think that he will suddenly develop some odd flaw in his swing. His approach at the plate has been incredibly consistent throughout his career. Joe Mauer is back.

[Loosey]

 

Hopefully Sano comes back with some degree of effectiveness and Kepler gets hot. Could make some noise in the after party with all these bats.

By the way, LaVelle tweeted he thinks Gibson should start a WC game.

The LaVelle tweet was a joke in regards to the Twins scoring 17,16 and 13 runs over his last 3 starts.

[Craig Arko]

 

The LaVelle tweet was a joke in regards to the Twins scoring 17,16 and 13 runs over his last 3 starts.

Wondered if that was it.

[Darius]

It's is amazing. Most of these guys carrying the team were players that a lot of fans thought the FO needs to dump ASAP (Rosario, Buxton, Polanco, Mauer, Gibson, etc).

[Thrylos]

 

 

A Truly Cohesive Effort

 

Before the Toronto series, I might have agreed.  But when a team that is last on its division, 11 games under .500 comes to your home and wins 2 out of 3, and having to have a phenomenal comeback to get a single victory,  I would have problems both with the "effort" (or lack thereof, other than yesterday), or the cohesion of this team. 

 

On another matter,  fWAR (and bWAR, and WARP) does not really work well to show reliever contribution.   Also the difference between a 0.3 to a 0.6 WAR is statistically insignificant

 

The best metric to show that is likely win probability added.  Here is that for today's stuff ( > 10 IP)

 

Trevor Hildenberger 0.84
Matt Belisle 0.57
Dillon Gee 0.5
Taylor Rogers 0.36
Michael Tonkin 0.04
Alan Busenitz -0.04
Ryan Pressly -0.2
Tyler Duffey -0.43
Buddy Boshers -0.53

 

Duffey really has cost the Twins some games.   Another thing that WPA is a great indicator (and you can see it in the case of Busenitz and Tonkin, and Perkins who has a -0.01) is of the leverage that players have been used.  The 3 mentioned have been used in low leverage situations, so they cannot really affect the outcome of the game much.  Duffey (and Pressly) did negatively and the 4 with the positive contributions did so positively.  The fact that Boshers is still around (and Vielma is not) is more than puzzling.

 

 

I just don't want to hear about extending Belisle now

 

Edited September 18, 2017 by Thrylos

[Mike Sixel]

 

It's is amazing. Most of these guys carrying the team were players that a lot of fans thought the FO needs to dump ASAP (Rosario, Buxton, Polanco, Mauer, Gibson, etc).

 

someone posted that Buxton should be dumped, like, off the team? 

[Smarterthanyou]

Meh, it still reminds me of the Calvin days, i.e., let's not spend any money even when we might have a chance to make the playoffs. Bottom line is it has been fun to watch the Twins mediocre play hold off the equally mediocre Angels.  Here's to the Twins sneaking into the wildcard and providing some Don Quixote-like playoff excitement.  It's better than watching the Vikings.

[Doomtints]

 

Duffey really has cost the Twins some games.

 

Duffey's positive stats have always been misleading. Regression was only a matter of time. We will have many conversations over the next six months about how he should go back to starting, but in the end I think we will all find he just isn't very good.

[gunnarthor]

 

Before the Toronto series, I might have agreed.  But when a team that is last on its division, 11 games under .500 comes to your home and wins 2 out of 3, and having to have a phenomenal comeback to get a single victory,  I would have problems both with the "effort" (or lack thereof, other than yesterday), or the cohesion of this team. 

 

You know it was a four game series, right?

[prouster]

but people place different values on different things. Some like comfort, some like challenge. Some like consistency, some like new things. some like fast cars, some like fuel efficiency.

 

They are literally placing a different value on different things....because they value them differently. So, of course they are different.

It seems to me you all actually kind of agree.

[Tomj14]

 

someone posted that Buxton should be dumped, like, off the team? 

I assume he was saying people wanted him traded for pitching prospects?

[gunnarthor]

 

someone posted that Buxton should be dumped, like, off the team? 

Dude, people posted that he wasn't smart enough to play ML baseball.  There were lots of posts about him lacking mental toughness. And there were posts about replacing him with Kepler in CF. And that's just in one thread!

 

Funnily, now that Buxton is hitting better than Kepler, no one is questioning Kepler's IQ.  Wonder what the difference is.

[ThejacKmp]

 

Kepler has disappointed.  His year is okay - but I think he is still going to have the breakout that Polanco and Buxton and Rosario have had.  That will really be fun.  

 

Kepler has an .837 OPS against right handed pitching. That's plenty fine for a 24 year old in his second season in the bigs. He'll hit lefties in time and in the meantime, Adrianza/Grossman are fine as a platoon. Not disappointed in Max at all, that second season can be hard. Rosario showed that last year and look where he is now!

[ThejacKmp]

 

But when a team that is last on its division, 11 games under .500 comes to your home and wins 2 out of 3, and having to have a phenomenal comeback to get a single victory,  I would have problems both with the "effort" (or lack thereof, other than yesterday), or the cohesion of this team. 

 

2 out of 4.

 

That was not a "phenomenal comeback". A phenomenal comeback is when you come back late in a game down big. The Twins were down 5-0 in the second and scored 13 runs. That's just a good game. Not every game is 4-3.

 

The first game was a quality win. The second game was a quality loss. The third game was a spanking loss. The fourth game was a spanking win. That's what the Twins needed to do that series and they did it well.

 

Some people just want to be negative I guess.

[ThejacKmp]

 

After the concussions and other physical problems, who among us predicted that Mauer would be anything more than an average player in 2017? Not me, that's for sure.

 

I predicted it time and time again. I pointed to his concussion, a weirdly low BABIP in 2015 and 2016 that had no root cause in line-drive rate and growing comfort with the position. I said there was no reason he couldn't win a batting title.

 

Then again, I also made the same arguments in 2015 and 2016 and look where that ended up. Nothing makes you look better than making lots of predictions and really hammering home when you're right from time to time. :-)

[Nick Nelson]

 

Before the Toronto series, I might have agreed.  But when a team that is last on its division, 11 games under .500 comes to your home and wins 2 out of 3, and having to have a phenomenal comeback to get a single victory,  I would have problems both with the "effort" (or lack thereof, other than yesterday), or the cohesion of this team. 

Well, the fact that you would let a three-game series loss (which was actually a four-game series split) entirely alter your perception of the team's effort and cohesion for the entire season probably means you're alone in that stance. 

 

Making these kinds of rash, snapshot judgments on the basis of tiny samples is the kind of thing that would lead a person to conclude Zack Granite is a superior option to Byron Buxton in center field.

[Doomtints]

It the Twins play ~.500 ball the rest of the way, they probably make the playoffs.  

 

None of the remaining games will be easy. I don't see Detroit playing prospects until the Twins are either eliminated or clinched. NY will want to pull away from the Twins, and Cleveland is playing with a chip on their shoulders.

 

I was expecting the Toronto series to be split. I'm sure a lot of us were.

 

Getting Sano back will help a lot.

Edited September 18, 2017 by Doomtints

[jimmer]

The results are so divergent, it almost makes you want to rely on actual statistics and historical facts, rather than someone else's rating system. . . . But then, the rating system is easier.

actual statistics like errors and fielding % ;-) Edited September 18, 2017 by jimmer

[Doomtints]

 

Kepler has disappointed.  His year is okay - but I think he is still going to have the breakout that Polanco and Buxton and Rosario have had.  That will really be fun.

 

Kepler's metrics as of today are nearly identical to his stats last year, but he played fewer games last year. So yeah, it's a step back, but not a big one.

 

Kepler is playing well enough, but with so many people stepping up he is easily forgotten. For his first full season, he is doing fine.

[Doomtints]

 

Dude, people posted that he wasn't smart enough to play ML baseball.  There were lots of posts about him lacking mental toughness. And there were posts about replacing him with Kepler in CF. And that's just in one thread!

 

Funnily, now that Buxton is hitting better than Kepler, no one is questioning Kepler's IQ.  Wonder what the difference is.

 

I think it was just one person who was questioning his intelligence/toughness/whatever.

 

We should have called this out at the time. Buxton looked completely lost in his at bats, like he wasn't even seeing the ball. In every other part of his game he looked more than competent. His intelligence/ability should have never been questioned.

Edited September 18, 2017 by Doomtints

[Vanimal46]

 

Kepler's metrics as of today are nearly identical to his stats last year, but he played fewer games last year. So yeah, it's a step back, but not a big one.

 

Kepler is playing well enough, but with so many people stepping up he is easily forgotten. For his first full season, he is doing fine.

 

When you say nearly identical, you really do mean nearly identical. Holy cow. It's like I'm seeing double. 

17 HR 63 RBI, 6 SB, K/BB ratio nearly the same, same .734 OPS. 

 

I don't have a lot of complaints about Kepler, besides the abysmal LH/RH splits. He needs to learn how to hit lefties sooner than later. 

[Thrylos]

 

Making these kinds of rash, snapshot judgments on the basis of tiny samples is the kind of thing that would lead a person to conclude Zack Granite is a superior option to Byron Buxton in center field.

 

The context is:

 

Zach Granite + what Buxton will bring in a trade, and the names I threw out there were: Starling Marte + Mitch Keller, Shane Baz, Felipe Rivero > Buxton long term

 

Not Granite > Buxton  long term.   Short term when Buxton was slumping (and was hurt) was a viable option .

 

I still think that the Twins will be better if they trade Buxton for a return like that (2 top of the rotation prospects, one ready in 2018, a gold glove outfielder buying low, and probably someone who will become the premier closer in baseball), in the long term.  

 

Tossing things there out of context  just to elicit a reaction, without trying to discuss the whole argument in its context, is at least pitiful, mean spirited, and trolling...

 

Edited September 19, 2017 by Thrylos

[Thrylos]

 

You know it was a four game series, right?

 

mea culpa. Still it is the same:  Not winning a series from one of the worse teams in baseball at home,  and losing 2 games in a row from such a team, while competing for the post-season is not acceptable.   Period.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

mea culpa. Still it is the same:  Not winning a series from one of the worse teams in baseball at home,  and losing 2 games in a row from such a team, while competing for the post-season is not acceptable.   Period.

They walked away from a homestand with a 4-2 record. Yeah, it would have been nice to walk away 5-1 but if you win two out of three at home, you've done okay for yourself.

[mikelink45]

 

Kepler's metrics as of today are nearly identical to his stats last year, but he played fewer games last year. So yeah, it's a step back, but not a big one.

 

Kepler is playing well enough, but with so many people stepping up he is easily forgotten. For his first full season, he is doing fine.

For August he hit 213 and for September 189.  

[Nick Nelson]

 

The context is:

 

Zach Granite + what Buxton will bring in a trade, and the names I threw out there were: Starling Marte + Mitch Keller, Shane Baz, Felipe Rivero > Buxton long term

 

Not Granite > Buxton  long term.   Short term when Buxton was slumping (and was hurt) was a viable option .

 

I still think that the Twins will be better if they trade Buxton for a return like that (2 top of the rotation prospects, one ready in 2018, a gold glove outfielder buying low, and probably someone who will become the premier closer in baseball), in the long term.  

 

Tossing things there out of context  just to elicit a reaction, without trying to discuss the whole argument in its context, is at least pitiful, mean spirited, and trolling...

I was tossing it out there to make a point about overreacting to small-sample occurrences, which you consistently have a tendency to do. And no, trading Buxton for prospects is and was not a "viable" option; he's been arguably the AL MVP in the second-half, and he's the biggest reason this team is even in position for the "unacceptable" losses you're talking about to matter. Also, Granite is not a major-league starter.

 

Respectfully, I don't really need to hear lecturing about "mean spirited" from someone who is constantly on these boards and elsewhere clamoring for people with the Twins to be fired. If you're going to spew vitriol nonstop that's fine but at least be ready to be held accountable for the things you write.

[jimmer]

Can one rant about people over-reacting to small sample sizes and then turn around and say Buxton could be 2nd half AL MVP when he has only played 47 games and had 186 PAs? :-)

 

Anyway, Lindor, Donaldson and of course Trout lead the way in the AL for the 2nd half.

 

Buxton has been truly awesome since the break though. So has Rosario, Polanco and Mauer.

Edited September 19, 2017 by jimmer

[Nick Nelson]

 

Can one rant about people over-reacting to small sample sizes and then turn around and say Buxton could be 2nd half AL MVP when he has only played 47 games and had 186 PAs? :-)

Anyway, Lindor, Donaldson and of course Trout lead the way in the AL for the 2nd half.

Buxton has been truly awesome since the break though. So has Rosario, Polanco and Mauer.

Well determining a 2nd-half MVP is inherently an exercise in small-sample analysis, but it seems relevant given Buxton's role in driving the Twins' unlikely playoff push. The three you mentioned are certainly deserving candidates but it's not a given by any means. Buxton's production is comparable to them and he has a sizable edge in defensive value (not to downplay Trout and Lindor in this area but Buxton's is in his own world). 

[Mike Sixel]

People comparing anyone to Trout....wow.....

[Thrylos]

 

Well determining a 2nd-half MVP is inherently an exercise in small-sample analysis, but it seems relevant given Buxton's role in driving the Twins' unlikely playoff push. The three you mentioned are certainly deserving candidates but it's not a given by any means. Buxton's production is comparable to them and he has a sizable edge in defensive value (not to downplay Trout and Lindor in this area but Buxton's is in his own world). 

 

That is subjective.

 

Objective measurements, 2nd half AL:
fWAR
1. Lindor 3.4
2. Donaldson 3.0
3. Upton 2.8
- Trout 2.8
5. Altuve 2.7
6. Buxton 2.6
- Dozier 2.6
- Santana 2.6

wOBA
1. Santana .421
2. Donaldson .419
-  Trout .419
4. Upton .417
5. Chirinos .410
6. Altuve .405
......
t11. Buxton .398

wRC+
1. Trout 168
2. Santana 164
- Donaldson 164
4. Upton 163
5 Altuve 158
6 A Garcia 155
- Chirinos 155
...
13 Buxton 148

 

 

 

Edited September 19, 2017 by Thrylos