Article: MIN 3, TOR 2: Buxton Blasts Walk-Off HR

[ThejacKmp]

 

I love the patience of this team. 7 more walks last night.

 

Would anyone have predicted that this team of free swingers would be walking so consistently. I know some people want to get rid of Molly this offseason (and I am very much on the fence with it) but they need to keep James Rowson around. And Rudy Hernandez, his ability to connect with the Spanish speaking guys has to make a profound difference.

[Tom Froemming]

I don't think there's any way Eddie Rosario, of all people, is ever thinking bunt. Dude oozes confidence, loves the spotlight and had just hit a walk-off homer the previous night. I think he'd have loved the opportunity to hit in that spot. Also, Toronto was prepared for a bunt in that situation (no outs, man on first, one-run game) so trying to bunt for a hit is a poor strategy there. It's not like you were going to catch them off guard.

[ThejacKmp]

 

You can't play Kepler against LH pitching at this point. He's helpless. Sub .400 OPS.

 

I think this will change in time. He didn't struggle this much against lefties last year or in the minors. This is just a bad time for a guy to learn in the majors. I am confident that in two years Kepler will be playing every day.

[gunnarthor]

Really fun win. Won't miss Molly though. Rosario should be swinging right now. He's just too hot to bunt.

[ThejacKmp]

 

So, is there a reason why Sano can't DH and do the same? Sounds like he's got a sore shin. No structural damage that could be furthered by playing through it down the stretch? How badly does he really want to be out there? 

 

1.) He has a stress reaction, not a sore shin. Stress reactions are the precursor to a stress fracture. Those are no joke in the legs/feet of a big guy like Sano. They ended the careers of NBA players like Yao Ming and Amare (obviously much bigger but same area). This is a serious injury and should be treated as such - it's also something that isn't going to have a concrete timeline.

 

2.) He can't run without pain. He has to be able to run the bases, not just hit. I think that's the goal - given the Twins DH situation, I'd be surprised if he plays 3B again this season, barring the World Series (!!!!!).

 

3.) It's frustrating not to have him out there but the team is doing well so I'm okay with them making sure he's healthy enough to be back for the long haul. If the Twins don't make the playoffs, it won't be because Miguel Sano wasn't there.

 

4.) He's also a franchise-type player so I like erring on the side of caution. I'd be okay resting him until the last five days of the season.

 

5.) I hear your point about Dick's chat but nothing about Sano makes me think he's a guy who isn't gunning to be out there. He's in the middle of the celebrations, he's always been a guy who loved playing. I gotta think that's Dick, not the Twins or the reality of the situation.

 

[Seth Stohs]

 

Agree. I look forward to reset for Kepler next year against LHs, but it's 100% winning time now.

 

Absolutely agree... and that includes other things too. Like, I'd love to see Granite and Garver and Curtiss and such play, but at this point, it's 100% about winning in 2018. No concerns about who will or won't be here in 2018. It's about getting to that Wild Card game, and hopefully advancing from there!

[Dantes929]

 

I don't think there's any way Eddie Rosario, of all people, is ever thinking bunt. Dude oozes confidence, loves the spotlight and had just hit a walk-off homer the previous night. I think he'd have loved the opportunity to hit in that spot. Also, Toronto was prepared for a bunt in that situation (no outs, man on first, one-run game) so trying to bunt for a hit is a poor strategy there. It's not like you were going to catch them off guard.

It might not have been his idea but with a lefty on the mound I am guessing he thought he had a decent chance of getting on by bunting down the 1st base line.   I love fast guys bunting for hits.    Its one of the more exciting plays and I don't think major leaguers and particularly pitchers, do a great job of defending it.

[mazeville]

Am I the only one who has watched video of that walk-off like 20 times? 

[Seth Stohs]

And, I'm listening to Mackey and Judd and Wetmore on 1500 ESPN, and they're all anti-bunt... but I found myself agreeing with a couple of their takes.

 

1.) Molitor isn't bunting in the 3rd innings.

2.) Bunting will hurt the team's odds of scoring multiple runs, but it can increase the odds of scoring one run, and that's what they want when the score is 2-1. Now, I woudln't do it with any of the good hitters, so I don't want to see Polanco or Rosario doing it, but it's not a black and white thing either. 

3.) Vargas is bad defensively, but we don't know if Garver is a better defensive 1B. We assume so. And, in one of his 2-3 games at 1B, he had a pretty bad error too. 

4.) Vargas had three bad at bats last night, but his previous four at bats were double, homer, homer, double... So, as we do with Sano, we have to (probably just for the rest of the year) accept that he's going to strikeout a lot and is slow. 

5.) I keep seeing people want to see Garver in LF instead of Adrianza. To this point, Adrianza has looked pretty good out in left field and has some good range. I watched a few of the games that Garver played in LF in Rochester. There's not much range. He'll catch what he gets to. But I don't blame them at all for going with Adrianza. 

 

Like I said, I want to see Garver as much as anyone, but there's no question we will... It may come in a pinch hitting opportunity, but more likely, it'll be in 2018 and beyond. 

 

As noted above, it's all about doing what they think is best for 2017 right now. And, Molitor isn't making decisions on his own. He's got a couple of very smart guys in Vavra and Pickler with him, and we know that Falvey and Levine and Adler are talking to Molitor every day too. They're all in this together. 

[Dantes929]

 

Just throwing this out there ...

 

Runners are 4-for-4 in stolen base attempts against Aaron Loup this season and 13-for-15 since the start of 2014. Their catcher, Luke Maile, is 16-for-51 in throwing guys out over his career (31.4%), which is above league average. 

Great stat and TY but what is Buxton's success rate against lefties?    Also, this strengthens the case that statistically Buxton should have tried stealing instead of sacrificing but do you think he knew those stats at the time?  All he sees is a lefty.

[Tom Froemming]

 

Great stat and TY but what is Buxton's success rate against lefties?    Also, this strengthens the case that statistically Buxton should have tried stealing instead of sacrificing but do you think he knew those stats at the time?  All he sees is a lefty.

Per b-ref, he's 5-for-5 vs. LHP. Byron doesn't need to know the stats, that's not his job. That's on the manager and his staff to know that stuff. Not saying they don't, they may have been fully aware of all the numbers and just decided to bunt instead.

[ThejacKmp]

 

3.) Vargas is bad defensively, but we don't know if Garver is a better defensive 1B. We assume so. And, in one of his 2-3 games at 1B, he had a pretty bad error too. 

 

 

5.) I keep seeing people want to see Garver in LF instead of Adrianza. To this point, Adrianza has looked pretty good out in left field and has some good range. I watched a few of the games that Garver played in LF in Rochester. There's not much range. He'll catch what he gets to. But I don't blame them at all for going with Adrianza. 

 

3.) Agree with you on Vargas vs. Garver, that error was awful. I hope Joe doesn't get too many DH days down the stretch here. The drop from Joe to the others is precipitous. I know they need to rest him some and DHing is a good way to do that but I get scared every time he's not in the lineup. Polanco's throw was off line on the DP but Joe makes that play every time.

 

5.) I'd go a step further and say that Adrianza has looked downright good out there. And his bat is playing this year. I don't know if that will last but he is 27 and he's getting the most regular MLB playing time of his career so it's no crazy that he might have taken a mini-step. I'd rather see Adrianza out there than Garver just about any day.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Twins postseason odds up to 71.3% on Fangraphs now.

[spanman2]

 "A hanging breaking ball is a gift from God. Don't miss your blessing." RIP Kirby...Byron didn't miss last night!  To steal a phrase from the New Market Muskies amateur team where I live...LOOKIN LIKE A BALLCLUB! 

[Mike Sixel]

My recollection is that the Twins do sacrifice early in games some, which is awful, but I don't know where to verify or vilify that on line....

[Seth Stohs]

 

My recollection is that the Twins do sacrifice early in games some, which is awful, but I don't know where to verify or vilify that on line....

 

They certainly have... and those are really annoying.

 

I'm actually a fan of bunting for hits in some situations. It can be a weapon. 

[Doubles]

Not ready to say I'm 'comfortable' yet, but 3 game lead with 16 to play.  Also, Twins haven't lost more than 4 games in a row this season.  Getting near 'choke' territory if they don't hang on.

[rghrbek]

 

They certainly have... and those are really annoying.

 

I'm actually a fan of bunting for hits in some situations. It can be a weapon. 

 

This Seth.  Bunting for hits, because of defense, or you are super fast, or slumping.  I am fine with that.

 

It's the sac bunts that are the problem, freely giving up the out.  Mackey and co. were talking bunts in general and never mentioned our #3 hitter sac bunting 5 times this year (half of the MLB total for that spot in the lineup), or the early inning attempts/sacs (when I was listening).

 

There have been sac bunts in early innings this year.  More importantly there have been attempts at sac bunts many times throughout this year, that were fouled off and then they hit away.  If we were a better bunting team, we would have a lot more sacs.

[Craig Arko]

 

You can't play Kepler against LH pitching at this point. He's helpless. Sub .400 OPS.

Then the problem needs to be worked, like Buxton and Rosario have overcome many of the things holding them back.

 

Will he be able to do this from the bench? I'm skeptical.

[ThejacKmp]

 

Then the problem needs to be worked, like Buxton and Rosario have overcome many of the things holding them back.

 

Will he be able to do this from the bench? I'm skeptical.

 

I think you play him against lefties next year from the get go. Not every day and not the really tough ones but you give him reps. Those reps just can't be during a pennant race.

 

I do like that the Twins seem to find a way to get Kepler back in there once the starter gets pulled.

[ThejacKmp]

 

Per b-ref, he's 5-for-5 vs. LHP. Byron doesn't need to know the stats, that's not his job. That's on the manager and his staff to know that stuff. Not saying they don't, they may have been fully aware of all the numbers and just decided to bunt instead.

 

A better question would be "When was Buxton thrown out?" I don't remember. Did he fall down halfway there?

 

One issue might have been that he hasn't had time to study the guy's movement home. He was up early in the inning and the Twins haven't seen that pitcher much. There's groundwork that goes in and Buxton/coaches may just have not felt comfortable sending him with a lot of unknowns.

[jimbo92107]

Another excellent recap, mister Froemming. Thank you.

 

Bunting is the issue; quality is the answer. If we recall bunting performance early this season, on a scale of 1 to 10, the Twins got a D. Especially Buxton, whose speed should have had him bunting baseballs since he first discovered he could outrun freeway traffic at the tender age of 5, to see such a man whiff on bunts, offer at pitches over his head, popping up bunts, etc... It was an insult to the Justice League. Where were the professional coaches when this lad was learning his ABC's? 

 

Anyway, Buxton and his sidekicks have gotten better at bunting, and I give much credit to Twins hitting coach James Rowson. Much as I liked Bruno, this new guy appears to be significantly more effective. Twins hitters now show better plate discipline, better form, and their bunting has improved.

 

What this means is that our former complaints about bunting are now legitimately in question. The worst part about bunting is when it fails, right? Okay, but what if it works? We all know that a lot of games are decided by one run. If the odds of the bunt strategy are in your favor - when you have fast, skilled runners and fast, skilled bunters - then it does make sense to use that trick when it seems apt. 

 

Interestingly, it also makes sense for a guy like Kennys Vargas to be a good bunter. In last night's situation with Buxton and Rosie on 1st and 2nd, few expected Vargas to bunt, for he is large and slow. If he then lays down a good bunt, it becomes a perfect sacrifice, as the fielders are playing back at normal distance. If Granite comes in for Vargas, infielders would probably come in ten feet or more. On the other hand, that also means Buxton could steal third with ease...

 

In any case, better bunting makes the strategy more desirable. Baseball games often are close contests, so a single run is a tempting goal. Molitor's decision to bat Vargas seems more like a hunch than a clever plan.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Not ready to say I'm 'comfortable' yet, but 3 game lead with 16 to play.  Also, Twins haven't lost more than 4 games in a row this season.  Getting near 'choke' territory if they don't hang on.

71% chance of making the playoffs, with 16 to play, and given our remaining schedule (Toronto, Detroit, and perhaps even Cleveland and the Yankees with not much to play for), they are definitely in "choke" territory if they blow this (unless the Angels win out or something crazy). I'm trying to stay positive, though, so I wasn't going to point that out!

[SwainZag]

 

I have never heard of this and a quick Google search shows no indication of a bail out from the government. It also doesn't make sense - ESPN employs about 4000 people. That's nothing when it comes to bailouts. They have a miniscule portion of the economy. No one relies on them so there's no domino effect. There's no reason for a bailout.

 

You have a source? Cuz otherwise I don't believe this at all.

 

Because it's not true.  ESPN is part of The Disney Company and while their numbers are down, their stock is up considerably over a 5 year period.    

[Seth Stohs]

I think this is a good way of saying it (Tweet from Derek Wetmore): 

 

 

 

And, for instance, having a 2-run lead gives a higher winning percentage/likelihood than a 1-run lead... and so on.

 

 

So again, I hate the bunt early in games and I don't like it much late in games if there is a good hitter up. But if it's a crappy hitter in the 9th, down by one or tied or something, I don't mind it at all. 

[wsnydes]

This. I think there are several hitters on this club that look to bunt for a hit and will do it with a man on base knowing the manager will be ok with it if they don't get on as long as the runner moves over. It can be a weapon, but the Twins may be trying it too often.

 

 

You might be right that he'd be one of those guys that have the approval of the manager to bunt, but then it's on the manager there to tell him to swing away.

[Circus Boy]

I may be in the minority here, but I really like DickBert. They were like little kids when Buck connected. We all may be seeing something in this team that's terrifically special. Enjoy!

[Mike Sixel]

 

They certainly have... and those are really annoying.

 

I'm actually a fan of bunting for hits in some situations. It can be a weapon. 

 

agreed on that last part for sure. I have no issue with a guy that bunts well, and runs, trying to get a bunt hit. None.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I think this is a good way of saying it (Tweet from Derek Wetmore): 

 

 

 

And, for instance, having a 2-run lead gives a higher winning percentage/likelihood than a 1-run lead... and so on.

 

 

So again, I hate the bunt early in games and I don't like it much late in games if there is a good hitter up. But if it's a crappy hitter in the 9th, down by one or tied or something, I don't mind it at all. 

 

the question also could be, why not steal with Buck?

 

And, once you get first and second, a sacrifice makes even more sense.....if you are playing for 1 or 2 runs there. 

 

I'm not going to kill a manager for sacrificing with bad hitters after inning 7. I'm going to question doing so with Rosario with Vargas on deck....after wondering why you don't try a steal. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

So again, I hate the bunt early in games and I don't like it much late in games if there is a good hitter up.

Which has pretty much been all of the Twins recent sac bunt attempts, right?