Best non-prospects in MLB this season

[gunnarthor]

Not sure if this goes here or in a different forum but it's a good reminder that teams get a lot of productivity from guys who were never big prospects.

 

The article mentions Dozier but a lot of the Twins big successes in the 2000s were because of big performances from unranked prospects (Koskie, Dougie Baseball, AJ, Lohse, Radke, Johan, Nathan, etc). Right now the Twins are pretty dependent on former top 100 prospects (Escobar and Dozier are the only hitters in our top 10 PA this season who weren't top 100 prospects at some point).

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-year-in-successful-non-prospects/

[Mike Sixel]

That was a great article.

[gunnarthor]

There were some interesting comments. One point is that relief pitchers tend to be ignored by propsect rankings but bullpens are becoming increasingly important as starters go less innings. So maybe a lot of those unranked WAR is going to start coming from bullpens?  Twins are obviously trying to build a big bullpen out of drafted guys but only Jay and Burdi have been ranked. Guys like Duffey, Hildy, Rogers, Curtiss, etc are going to probably pitch important innings for us. Maybe a few of them can turn into another Rincon or Perkins.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I would love to learn what the secret sauce is that allows a team to find a Kubler. There's obviously something people missed... love to know what that is.

[gunnarthor]

 

I would love to learn what the secret sauce is that allows a team to find a Kubler. There's obviously something people missed... love to know what that is.

Sickels wrote a bit about him a few years ago.

 

https://www.minorleagueball.com/2014/10/6/6922083/a-sleeper-who-woke-up-corey-kluber-rhp-cleveland-indians

 

Not mentioned by Sickels but Kluber had solid k-numbers in the minors but not video game numbers and was old for his level. At 24, he was still in AA and not dominating.  

 

And he's apparently added several mph to his fastball. As a prospect, his fastball was modest - 88-92. Now he's averaging over 92 and can touch upper 90s.  

[Mike Sixel]

 

There were some interesting comments. One point is that relief pitchers tend to be ignored by propsect rankings but bullpens are becoming increasingly important as starters go less innings. So maybe a lot of those unranked WAR is going to start coming from bullpens?  Twins are obviously trying to build a big bullpen out of drafted guys but only Jay and Burdi have been ranked. Guys like Duffey, Hildy, Rogers, Curtiss, etc are going to probably pitch important innings for us. Maybe a few of them can turn into another Rincon or Perkins.

 

I found that comment interesting also. While individual RPs won't likely compile huge numbers, in aggregate they will. So, when looking at MLB WAR as a whole, more will come from non ranked players, but individually those non ranked players won't be worth that much.....

 

That raises an interesting question about aggregate WAR, imo. If most RPs are about the same, and hence are R or about, how does that change how aggregate WAR should be calculated?

[diehardtwinsfan]

a lot of good RPs are failed starters for what it's worth. Many may have never gotten noticed because they never got evaluated as RPs.

[jimbo92107]

Brian Dozier is a perfect example of a non-prospect building himself into a valuable player. When the Twins drafted him, Dozier wasn't considered a great player or even a special prospect. He had some talent, but wasn't particularly fast, not a power hitter. Most of his value came from years of hard work gradually refining his skills in the field and at the plate. He adjusted to his lack of elite foot speed by learning his signature slide and spin move when fielding ground balls to his left. It took years to refine his approach at the plate before he blossomed into a major power threat. Even now, just this season he learned how to drive outside pitches to the opposite field, which is why he's got 30 home runs after pitchers stopped giving him anything inside to pull. 

 

Trevor Hildenberger is another excellent example of a non-prospect making himself valuable. He was a normal pitcher until after he was drafted, when he decided to try pitching side-arm to see if it worked better. It did. He then figured out how to throw fastball, curve and change up from the low side-arm slot. Best of all, it turned out he had excellent control from down low, and his change up was a revelation. Even then, as he dominated the minors in relief, he couldn't break into a prospect list.

 

If we're really honest about it, baseball players have plenty of up's and down's, including guys that are ranked as high prospects. Kyle Gibson was supposed to be an immediate front line starter, possibly an ace. Didn't happen for one reason or another, yet in the second half of this season Gibson has started looking remarkably dominant. What happened? Looks like he has found a simplified delivery. Less wasted motion, better down plane, better command. What took so long? I have no idea. I'm just glad to see that he's doing well.

 

Same could be said for Byron Buxton, a top prospect the whole time, yet once up, at the plate he looked clueless and awkward, until around mid-season when something "clicked." Now he's starting to look like the superstar everybody thought he would be. But does anybody else remember the feeling this spring that Buxton might be a bust at the plate? 

 

Kyle Lohse was another late bloomer that the Twins missed out on. Good fastball, but not much else. It was only after he went elsewhere that somebody showed him a different grip for his slider. Boom, a devastating pitch, and he became a winner. If he'd had that pitch early on, he might have been a top prospect. 

[Mike Sixel]

I think also that people seem to think 100 is a real cutoff of some kind, and not an arbitrary number. No one is saying that RPs won't have MLB careers, they are saying they aren't likely to MLB careers so valuable (and different than a random RP) that they are one of the most likely elite players....

[gunnarthor]

 

I think also that people seem to think 100 is a real cutoff of some kind, and not an arbitrary number. No one is saying that RPs won't have MLB careers, they are saying they aren't likely to MLB careers so valuable (and different than a random RP) that they are one of the most likely elite players....

That's a real good point and one the prospect gurus make all the time. Most of the time, the prospects are in tiers. Usually, the top tier is only a handful but there can be some exceptions (the 2015 top tier probably went 15 deep, that was an insanely good prospect group).  But as we go down, the tiers get bigger and the difference between ranked and unranked is a lot smaller, if anything.

[Mike Sixel]

 

That's a real good point and one the prospect gurus make all the time. Most of the time, the prospects are in tiers. Usually, the top tier is only a handful but there can be some exceptions (the 2015 top tier probably went 15 deep, that was an insanely good prospect group).  But as we go down, the tiers get bigger and the difference between ranked and unranked is a lot smaller, if anything.

 

which is one reason I like that Eric on Fangraphs gives "grades" for tools and whatno....you can see the tiers, and it is clear there are a few elite prospects, a couple handfuls of great ones, a few dozen really good ones, and everyone else kind of about the same....

[old nurse]

Fast rising prospects get left off lists. Altuve is Venezuelan so he did not get the hype a high school player might. The stat geeks would have looked at the 5'6" listing and counted it against him. In 2011 he had 200+ PA likely taking him out of consideration. Slower developing players like Dozier and Turner are going to be missed. 

Relievers that  get to 3 WAR are few. Jansen rose so fast he was missed.  Miller kicked around a long tome as a  mediocre starter. Betance and Davis were ranked prospects. Uhera came over without ever being a prospect. Those are it for 3 WAR relievers the last 5 years. That really does not skew the 35-40% number of 3 WAR players being unranked given that there are over 100 3 WAR players a year.

 

An older article https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2013/6/3/4386214/how-well-does-the-baseball-america-prospect-top-100-estimate-the-top 

 

Be mindful that a career year can get you a 3 war. Trevor Ploufe had one great year and was never a ranked prospect. How many players  are there like Plouffe out there? I do not know.

 

[drivlikejehu]

 

Fast rising prospects get left off lists. Altuve is Venezuelan so he did not get the hype a high school player might. The stat geeks would have looked at the 5'6" listing and counted it against him. In 2011 he had 200+ PA likely taking him out of consideration. Slower developing players like Dozier and Turner are going to be missed. 

Relievers that  get to 3 WAR are few. Jansen rose so fast he was missed.  Miller kicked around a long tome as a  mediocre starter. Betance and Davis were ranked prospects. Uhera came over without ever being a prospect. Those are it for 3 WAR relievers the last 5 years. That really does not skew the 35-40% number of 3 WAR players being unranked given that there are over 100 3 WAR players a year.

 

An older article https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2013/6/3/4386214/how-well-does-the-baseball-america-prospect-top-100-estimate-the-top 

 

Be mindful that a career year can get you a 3 war. Trevor Ploufe had one great year and was never a ranked prospect. How many players  are there like Plouffe out there? I do not know.

 

Scouts are much more likely to hold physical measurements against a player than "stat geeks."

[Mike Sixel]

 

Scouts are much more likely to hold physical measurements against a player than "stat geeks."

 

ya, but then we couldn't have loaded phrases in posts....

[gunnarthor]

 

Scouts are much more likely to hold physical measurements against a player than "stat geeks."

Not sure that's true. 

[old nurse]

 

Scouts are much more likely to hold physical measurements against a player than "stat geeks."

One of the stories out of moneyball was Beane raving about a catcher's build.  Scouts are more likely to look at the play than the build.

[drivlikejehu]

 

One of the stories out of moneyball was Beane raving about a catcher's build.  Scouts are more likely to look at the play than the build.

 

I actually read Moneyball, you have it backwards with respect to that story and with regard to scouting in general. This is just a factually incorrect assertion you're making - it's easily proven by the fact that scouting reports always delve into the physical characteristics while stat projection models either give it a minimal weight or completely ignore it.

[gunnarthor]

 

I actually read Moneyball, you have it backwards with respect to that story and with regard to scouting in general. This is just a factually incorrect assertion you're making - it's easily proven by the fact that scouting reports always delve into the physical characteristics while stat projection models either give it a minimal weight or completely ignore it.

Is Klaw a stat guy or a scout? 

 

I would imagine that both groups will look at a persons build to make attempts to predict future production. It would be absurd if they didn't.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Is Klaw a stat guy or a scout? 

 

I would imagine that both groups will look at a persons build to make attempts to predict future production. It would be absurd if they didn't.

 

I'd actually say KLAW is both, if possible......

[drivlikejehu]

 

Is Klaw a stat guy or a scout? 

 

I would imagine that both groups will look at a persons build to make attempts to predict future production. It would be absurd if they didn't.

 

The publicly available information, height and often inaccurate weight, isn't enough for the stat models to do much with.

[gunnarthor]

 

The publicly available information, height and often inaccurate weight, isn't enough for the stat models to do much with.

No, but I imagine the people in stats do have theories about pitcher height (lack of downhill plane) and small ball players. They also probably have something that allows them to guess if a guy is too big to play the OF or catcher or such. I can't believe stat guys would ignore a players build. And I don't think there are any stat guys who solely look at only stats.

[Thrylos]

 

I think also that people seem to think 100 is a real cutoff of some kind, and not an arbitrary number. No one is saying that RPs won't have MLB careers, they are saying they aren't likely to MLB careers so valuable (and different than a random RP) that they are one of the most likely elite players....

 

Exactly.  100 players, 30 teams, usually 2-5 prospects per team are in that list.

 

Dozier was mentioned as a non-prospect.  BA ranked him 10th in 2012.

Sickel ranked him the same, and said:

 

Not the best tools in the universe, but very polished, terrific instincts, and he just keeps hitting. Older prospect at age 24 but all the markers of a guy who will surprise people, and soon.

 

It was not like he was under the radar.  Maybe under the top 100 radar, and nationally.

 

[drivlikejehu]

 

No, but I imagine the people in stats do have theories about pitcher height (lack of downhill plane) and small ball players. They also probably have something that allows them to guess if a guy is too big to play the OF or catcher or such. I can't believe stat guys would ignore a players build. And I don't think there are any stat guys who solely look at only stats.

 

Well I didn't set up the artificial construct, someone else did . . . the larger point is that it's categorically false that 'stat heads' stereotype players based on physical measurements while scouts somehow ignore such things, even though every single scouting report talks about it.

[Doctor Wu]

This is one of the things that I love about the great game of baseball; players who weren't considered "can't miss" prospects but who battled and kept trying, or perhaps changed something in their approach to become better, or maybe just never got a real chance. Think of players like Kluber or J. D. Martinez or Justin Turner, ones that turned into all-stars against all expectations. Never say never, right?