Article: The Core Seven?

[Darius]

Rosario since August 6th (36 games):

 

.308 with 12 HR and 33 RBI

 

Twins since August 1st:

 

Leading the MLB with 6.07 runs per game.

 

Pretty staggering when you consider Sano has been out of the lineup for most of that.

 

Rosario is not only a core piece for the future....but he's quietly the Twins best and most important offensive peice right now.

 

.292/.329/.506/.835, 23 HR, 56 XBH, K rate of 3/1 for the entire season (nearly 500 AB), with pretty good defense. Something to consider is that he's hitting as a LH in Target Field, which may be stifling his HR numbers in relation to some other parks (which is why comparing some of these numbers is inherently flawed).

 

If his progression stops right there, he's a very very good player. If he continues to get better, he's a freaking superstar.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I'm probably the in the minority, but I think I believe in Rosario much more than I do Kepler. Lefties learning to hit lefties is a tough ask, but Rosario can and Kepler isn't.

Eddie has made good contact at every level, looking at his career as a whole, last year was a clear outlier. He'll never be a superstar but aside from Sano, if someone asked me to put money on a guy who wouldn't be an offensive liability the next half decade, I'd be most confident about Rosario. It seems to me the only thing holding him back is his twice monthly poor throws.

Most importantly, and I could be wrong, Eddie kind of looks like he's the Latin leader in the dugout. I want that guy.

Dunno, I'm pretty close on both of them.

 

Kepler has the advantage of age, defensive ability (which seems to be better than Rosario this year, and Max can cover CF better than Eddie), and polish/discipline.

 

Rosario has the advantage of L/R splits, pure hitting ability, and current performance.

 

I suspect they end up as similarly valuable players but get there very differently. I still believe Kepler probably has the higher ceiling, as it's hard to argue with plate discipline, especially as a player enters their prime.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

 

Eduardo Escobar?

Between Escobar, Polanco, Adrianza, and even Dozier, I would guess Escobar seems like the odd man out this winter. It's too bad as he's one of my favorites. 

 

Polanco as a trade piece might attract a very good pitcher in return, provided another team is willing to deal in good faith (unlike the Dodgers). 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Between Escobar, Polanco, Adrianza, and even Dozier, I would guess Escobar seems like the odd man out this winter. It's too bad as he's one of my favorites. 

 

Polanco as a trade piece might attract a very good pitcher in return, provided another team is willing to deal in good faith (unlike the Dodgers). 

 

didn't the Dodgers just trade for a pitcher, in good faith?

[Darius]

I would like to say this is all making of previous Front office and it looks like they were not as incompentent as all people on here have made them out. It just took time for these players to develop. I will give credit to this front office on several of new coaches hired it seems they have been able to turn the corner on this group of players in getting them to make needed changes. Also i have stated in past this front office was able give up on some previous high draft picks and let this new group play in there natural positions. The question is will this new Front office will be able add the right people and subtract right people in the future to improve this team in next few years because this core could win couple of championships if they can add pitching without subtracting to much from the core.

This doesn't change my mind about the previous regime (namely, Ryan).

 

Let say they win 88 games this year. Since Ryan took over in 1993 (about 25 years), that FO exceeded that win total 5 times. That's awful, especially considering 88 wins wouldn't get you into the playoffs most years under the 1 wild card system. I believe two of those years were under Bill Smith, technically (who is responsible for Sano, Polanco, Rosario, and Kepler), so Ryan wasn't about 3/20 in that regard.

 

Let's also not forget the AL Central was one of the worst overall divisions in baseball during the time-frame that all of those seasons were accrued. Then, they never capitalize on a playoff appearance (zero World Series appearances, one ALCS)

 

I've said before, if anyone deserve some credit for this season, it's probably Bill Smith. I'm certainly not going to start calling Ryan a genius.

 

I don't think it's a coincidence that these young guys turned it on after getting fresh blood in here (aka not assuming it would be the same if the old regime were in place). They wouldn't have hired Rowson, who should probably get team MVP.

[Darius]

Between Escobar, Polanco, Adrianza, and even Dozier, I would guess Escobar seems like the odd man out this winter. It's too bad as he's one of my favorites.

 

Polanco as a trade piece might attract a very good pitcher in return, provided another team is willing to deal in good faith (unlike the Dodgers).

I really hope that's not the case, and I think it would be a mistake to let him go in favor of Adrianza.

 

Adrianza certainly won't hit as much going forward. There are other defensive whiz-kids in the minors (Vielma, etc) that could step in, or Gordon may be ready at some point next year (doubtful, IMO, but maybe).

 

Escobar on the other hand, has been one of the most valuable and irreplaceable players on the team this year (IMO). He can play anywhere in the field, but I think "utility guy" role gets thrown around in poor context (implicating that he's somehow deficient as a player). It's more of a strength than an indictment. He's still young, and he has carried the team at times offensively. He's also loved in the clubhouse.

 

Hes also still fairly young.

 

He's an easy guy to overlook, admittedly, but I think he might be the best "utility" guy out there right now (remember the days of Nick Punto?!).

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

 

didn't the Dodgers just trade for a pitcher, in good faith?

Well I'm not happy with the way the Dodgers shopped De Leon to us last offseason. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

 

I really hope that's not the case, and I think it would be a mistake to let him go in favor of Adrianza.

Adrianza certainly won't hit as much going forward. There are other defensive whiz-kids in the minors (Vielma, etc) that could step in, or Gordon may be ready at some point next year (doubtful, IMO, but maybe).

Escobar on the other hand, has been one of the most valuable and irreplaceable players on the team this year (IMO). He can play anywhere in the field, but I think "utility guy" role gets thrown around in poor context (implicating that he's somehow deficient as a player). It's more of a strength than an indictment. He's still young, and he has carried the team at times offensively. He's also loved in the clubhouse.

Hes also still fairly young.

He's an easy guy to overlook, admittedly, but I think he might be the best "utility" guy out there right now (remember the days of Nick Punto?!).

I agree completely. I think Escobar is very valuable, as a player who can come off the bench in a game but also step into a position and play every day for several weeks and continue to hit, as he has done this year and in 2015 at short. 

[yarnivek1972]

Escobar has been valuable because Sano has only started 79 games at third.

 

Personally, I would rather have had Sano start 120-130 games at third. Which would have meant 40-50 fewer games for Escobar.

[bluechipper]

Very encouraging article to read on the Twins future.

 

I'm still waiting for Max Kepler to break out. He's been consistently solid, but he hasn't had a sustained stretch where he's been on fire so far in his career.

[Mr. Brooks]

Rosario since August 6th (36 games):

 

.308 with 12 HR and 33 RBI

 

Twins since August 1st:

 

Leading the MLB with 6.07 runs per game.

 

Pretty staggering when you consider Sano has been out of the lineup for most of that.

 

Rosario is not only a core piece for the future....but he's quietly the Twins best and most important offensive peice right now.

 

.292/.329/.506/.835, 23 HR, 56 XBH, K rate of 3/1 for the entire season (nearly 500 AB), with pretty good defense. Something to consider is that he's hitting as a LH in Target Field, which may be stifling his HR numbers in relation to some other parks (which is why comparing some of these numbers is inherently flawed).

 

If his progression stops right there, he's a very very good player. If he continues to get better, he's a freaking superstar.

Rosario has a .220 higher OPS for his career at Target Field, and .300 higher this year.

 

Target Field isn't hurting his numbers at all, in fact he's pretty bad everywhere else.

[twinstalker]

 

Eduardo Escobar?

I think almost by definition "core" means players you're 90% sure will be a Twin two years from now.  I wouldn't give Escobar a 30% chance.

[ND-Fan]

I think Escobar is valuable to the Twins in that Sano may not be able to play full season at 3 base without getting hurt or worn down. Escobar has shown he can hit and play well enough at 3 plus he can fill in at other infield positions. I wonder what the Twins are going to do with Sano, Mauer, Vargas next year they do not have the option of sending Vargas back and forth to Rodchester like this year. Also Mauer will be in his final year of his contract and will they be willing to resign him after next year. The next option would be release Vargas but that i will think come back  and bite them he has value as desinated hitter and can fill in as first baseman. Also the Twins have log jam now at the outfield positions with Rosario, Buxton, and Kepler making for very young outfield. Do they keep Grossman or bring up some minor league players for the forth outfield position. Same thing will be SS and Second base what do they do there with Dozier, polonco, and Gordon pushing from minor leagues do they sign Dozier or trade what do with other two plus couple they have now for backup. In these decisions is make up for team chemistry and leadership for the future. Like i say this will be how this front office is judged and they have had pretty much a free pass and had added bonus of this team was alot closer to winning than most people thought so people are feeling good about this team. Actually this was season people thought this team could have had last year but fell miserably short of .

Also comment that Bill Smith had more to do with this group is somewhat right. I also want to comment Bill Smith was released because he stated that if Twins were compete in near future they would need to add free agent signings because of lack of talent in the system. Ownership didn't want to go that way went back to Terry Ryan who had built the Twins from ground up with very little money and when they were competitive he added players by trading away some of there talent. Never did the Twins add big signee to get over hump when they were competitive when they were in the playoffs. I think this was by design at time put pressure on community to build a new stadium. If they had went out signed big free agent and won a championship there would have been not the push for the stadium.  Also i get tired of weak central division since 2006 to last year central division has been in world series 6 times in 11 years so how weak is the division.

[USNMCPO]

Nice article Seth. I have to add that for me, just watching Rosario is a hoot. He seems to be having a lot of fun.

[Thrylos]

 

Eduardo Escobar?

 

Way ahead of the others, both in age and (fewer) years of club control...

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Escobar has been valuable because Sano has only started 79 games at third.

Personally, I would rather have had Sano start 120-130 games at third. Which would have meant 40-50 fewer games for Escobar.

Well, sure, we'd all like Sano at third more often. I don't think that's really a controversial statement.

 

When he went down with the fluke shin injury, Miguel was on pace for about ~105 games at third. A little lower than I'd like to see but not that far off a 120 game pace.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I really hope that's not the case, and I think it would be a mistake to let him go in favor of Adrianza.

 

Adrianza certainly won't hit as much going forward. There are other defensive whiz-kids in the minors (Vielma, etc) that could step in, or Gordon may be ready at some point next year (doubtful, IMO, but maybe).

 

Escobar on the other hand, has been one of the most valuable and irreplaceable players on the team this year (IMO). He can play anywhere in the field, but I think "utility guy" role gets thrown around in poor context (implicating that he's somehow deficient as a player). It's more of a strength than an indictment. He's still young, and he has carried the team at times offensively. He's also loved in the clubhouse.

 

Hes also still fairly young.

 

He's an easy guy to overlook, admittedly, but I think he might be the best "utility" guy out there right now (remember the days of Nick Punto?!).

hes a good fielder at 3rd, ok at SS and 2nd and .750 OPS hitter.

 

.750 OPS starts at SS if you're a defensive whiz. It don't start at 2nd or 3rd. He's no defensive whiz either.

 

I maintain hes a valuable utility fielder, but no cornerstone. LNP was no core player either.

 

Check out the similarity score on bbref.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/e/escobed01.shtml

 

Number 1 is ...

Edited September 15, 2017 by Sconnie

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

hes a good fielder at 3rd, ok at SS and 2nd and .750 OPS hitter.

.750 OPS starts at SS if you're a defensive whiz. It don't start at 2nd or 3rd. He's no defensive whiz either.

I maintain hes a valuable utility fielder, but no cornerstone. LNP was no core player either.

Check out the similarity score on bbref.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/e/escobed01.shtml

Number 1 is ...IMG_1581.PNG

 

I think you've got some lofty expectations. The average SS OPS in 2017 sits at .737 with only pitchers and catchers posting lower numbers for full time roles. The average MLB OPS right now is .753, making Esco slightly better than a league average hitter. 

 

.750 is a pretty good SS if the defense is average. Defensive wizards can get away with much lower hitting aptitude.

 

I'm not sure I'd call Escobar a core player, but given competent defense and an ability to hit slightly better than baseball, Escobar is a very valuable 10th man and could be an acceptable starter for a lot of teams. Most teams don't have a player like that on their bench.

 

I would, without question look to see if I could lock him up for a few years beyond FA if he was interested.

[Oldgoat_MN]

I would like, by the end of next year, to believe that Mejia was part of the core.

 

For that matter, by the end of next year I'd like to think Garver was clearly part of a solid future as well.

[davidc3915]

The Heavenly Seven?

[RaymondLuxuryYacht]

A very nice article.  Shows the value of patience when dealing with developing players.  Just about every name here went through some early difficulties and some "bust speculation". 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

ADALBERTO MEJIA

Just 24-years-old, Mejia proved himself as a mid-rotation type of starter before experiencing an arm injury that cost him about a month.

Seth, I have no idea how you came to this conclusion about a guy averaging less than 5 innings per start.  He wasn't even trending up that much -- 18.2 IP in the 4 starts preceding his injury start (in which he was also on pace to probably fall short of 5 IP).  His ERA was nice in recent stretches, but it wasn't really supported by his components (which also ties into why he wasn't pitching many innings, too many hits and walks even when he wasn't allowing many runs).

 

Not picking on him at all, I'm glad to get Mejia back and he should be a useful guy now and going forward, but I don't see how you can say he has "proved himself as a mid-rotation type of starter" already, or put him as part of a franchise core 7.

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

Seth –

 

Good story.

 

I would prefer Hildenberger over Mejia. Granted, not a starter, but has been a very valuable reliever.

 

My prediction is, if the Twins do not sign a "closer" this winter, he'll be it next spring.

 

BTW – Twins Daily needs to update its Twins roster and salaries. Several current Twins are not even listed.

 

Thanks

[wabene]

Mejia getting hurt and not finishing off hitters are the red flags for me. Still he's a rookie, was a steal acquisition and I predict he is a rotation fixture going forward, so I'm with his inclusion.

The previous front office's share of the credit for this resurgence? With all those high draft picks due to sustained poor performance even a blind squirrel... Yes they stumbled upon some talent but didn't appear to be able to develop it.

[the blade]

 

Would you accept hot dogs from Target Field as proper compensation for your work? If so, you're hired! 

I probably would.  I'm actually in Colombia learning spanish specifically to get into baseball somehow.  Let me know if you want to talk more.  Will be home in December.

[Vanimal46]

 

I probably would.  I'm actually in Colombia learning spanish specifically to get into baseball somehow.  Let me know if you want to talk more.  Will be home in December.

 

Full disclosure: I have zero connections to the Minnesota Twins.

 

Good luck in your pursuit to get into baseball! 

[howieramone2]

I like Mejia, but I also feel it's premature to include him in the core. I hope a rookie starting pitcher does well every other game or so, and Mejia has done quite a bit better than that. His debut season was better than Gibson, May, Meyer, and Berrios. Only Duffey performed better. I'm leaning toward having Mejia and Gonsalves fight it out for the 5th spot, and the loser being first man up.

[70charger]

I probably would.  I'm actually in Colombia learning spanish specifically to get into baseball somehow.  Let me know if you want to talk more.  Will be home in December.

Colombian Spanish is too easy! I kid, but there is a distinct Caribbean accent that you'd likely have to deal with in baseball. Personally I hear an enormous difference between when I'm in Mexico or Colombia, and when I'm in Panama. The islands are supposed to even more mashed. Maybe start practicing Spanish with like three or four marbles in your mouth. See what it sounds like.

[Rosterman]

Well, the outfield is set for a few years until a new crop comes along. You have to be happy that Sano will be somewhere. 2B/SS seem set for now, so we have to worry about the corners (unless Mauer is extended) and who is the DH if Sano stays in the field. I was hoping to get more of a look at Garver behind-the-plate as he seems to be it for the future after 2019.

 

I guess we should be happy that Santana is still around and that Gibson ahs found his way to throw. I don't have a lot of long-term future stock in Mejia, not even short-term. But can't name for sure who will be on the 2020 rotation staff yet.

 

Like ALL those relief pitchers of old, we have yet to classify where any of these guys will perform best in the bullpen. Who is setup, is there a longman, who can close someday

 

Escobar has proven to be a surprise that I would almost write him at third next year with Sano as DH.

 

But the number of players the Twins have to start protecting on the 40-man this season and next will make for some interesting watch. You can add them and protect them, but does no good if they don't play and some others have to take their spots and you lose them when sending them off-40-man waivers.

[the blade]

 

Colombian Spanish is too easy! I kid, but there is a distinct Caribbean accent that you'd likely have to deal with in baseball. Personally I hear an enormous difference between when I'm in Mexico or Colombia, and when I'm in Panama. The islands are supposed to even more mashed. Maybe start practicing Spanish with like three or four marbles in your mouth. See what it sounds like.

Ha!  Yes, i have heard that.  But I'm on the coast where the it's also pretty mushed up and full of slang.   Good call on the marbles.  I had someone here tell me to speak by biting down on a finger.