Article: Mauer's Renaissance Season

[spinowner]

 

By Fangraphs WAR, it is actually 8th all time just among catchers:

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=c&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2017&month=0&season1=1901&ind=1&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=22,d

Within a half win of #4, though.
#2 among catchers in wRC+ (offense only), but remember, Mauer only caught 109 games that year.

Obviously a great season, but you'd have a very hard time to justify it as top 10 overall among all players, unless you want 3-4 catcher seasons among your top 10. (Especially difficult if you include pitchers too.)

This still doesn't take into account the many things I referred to in my earlier post.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

No, not even close.
He had 7.9 bWAR that year, which is a great year, but, just for perspective, Barry Bonds alone had 11 seasons with more BWAR than that.
I'd doubt it would even come close to top 100.

While I agree in principle, WAR is notoriously awful at measuring catcher defense.

 

And by most regards, Mauer was at least passable, if not very good (by the time framing came around, Joe was getting a bit long in the tooth for a catcher so it's hard to say what he was like in his mid 20s).

[jimmer]

 

While I agree in principle, WAR is notoriously awful at measuring catcher defense.

 

And by most regards, Mauer was at least passable, if not very good (by the time framing came around, Joe was getting a bit long in the tooth for a catcher so it's hard to say what he was like in his mid 20s).

In 2009 he was an above average defender and he led the AL in BA, OBP and SLG%. When he did that, it was the first time that had happened in the AL since George Brett in 1980.  Pretty sure he is still the only catcher to ever do it.

 

He also led the AL in OPS+ and he led in wRC+ by 18 points.  A pretty phenomenal year.

 

Edited September 8, 2017 by jimmer

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

In 2009 he was an above average defender and he led the AL in BA, OBP and SLG%. When he did that, it was the first time that had happened in the AL since George Brett in 1980.  Pretty sure he is still the only catcher to ever do it.

 

He also led the AL in OPS+ and he led in wRC+ by 18 points.  A pretty phenomenal year.

Just for fun, here's a comparison using bWAR:

 

Mike Piazza had a career best bWAR of 8.7 in 1997.

 

Ivan Rodriguez had a career best bWAR of 6.5, also in 1997.

 

Which player had the better season? It's not as easy as just spitting out a number, as Pudge was one of the all-time greats behind the dish while Piazza was one of the all-time jokes behind the dish.

[D. Hocking]

 

A little uneasy about calling 2017 a meaningful "renaissance" for Mauer. He basically had the same OPS in mid-August last year, in only about 20 fewer PA than he has this year. He is definitely doing better than some of his lower post-concussion points, but I am not sure it is that drastic of an improvement. Do love the lower K rate, hopefully he can maintain that. Otherwise he seems likely largely the same player, and his improved 2017 numbers are more of a function of sample timing / end points.

 

I would say last year was probably the beginning of the improvement.  I think the last six months obscured that when he tanked.  I never understood why they did not DL him instead of having him try to play through an injury, esp. since the season was already lost.  I was glad when they DLed him earlier this year and just gave him time to heal.

 

Polarizing is a very apt description for Mauer.

 

True and kind of funny, since in every other aspect from what I have heard he is not exactly a controversial or polarizing guy as a person.  

[jimmer]

 

Just for fun, here's a comparison using bWAR:

 

Mike Piazza had a career best bWAR of 8.7 in 1997.

 

Ivan Rodriguez had a career best bWAR of 6.5, also in 1997.

 

Which player had the better season? It's not as easy as just spitting out a number, as Pudge was one of the all-time greats behind the dish while Piazza was one of the all-time jokes behind the dish.

That's why my favorite players have always been the well rounded ones (well, except Ozzie Smith:-)).

Edited September 8, 2017 by jimmer

[jimmer]

Mauer is now 6th in AL BA and 3rd in AL OBP while playing GG defense.

 

W/RISP: .321 BA and an 880 OPS.

Edited September 8, 2017 by jimmer

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

That's why my favorite players have always been the well rounded ones (well, except Ozzie Smith:-)).

Hard to call Smith "rounded". He was stellar at two skills (defense and baserunning) and pretty bad at the rest.

 

edit: huh, never realized Smith was as disciplined a hitter as he was.

[jimmer]

 

Hard to call Smith "rounded". He was stellar at one skill and, at best, passable in the rest.

Well, yeah, that's why i said except Ozzie Smith :-)

 

Though, in fairness, in Ozzie's day, a .262/.337/.370 was passable for a shortstop. Especially when he could play D like he did.

Edited September 8, 2017 by jimmer

[Otto von Ballpark]

This still doesn't take into account the many things I referred to in my earlier post.

It's WAR, but it is a relative ranking among catchers. Is it your claim that Mauer in 2009, in just 109 games caught, was racking up more of those "many things" (catching intangibles) than fellow catchers Bench, Posey, etc.? Or do you have 3-4 catcher seasons in your all-time top 10?

[Linus]

Well, yeah, that's why i said except Ozzie Smith :-)

 

Though, in fairness, in Ozzie's day, a .262/.337/.370 was passable for a shortstop. Especially when he could play D like he did.

Plus if I recall correctly he started his career very slowly with the bat but ended up being a decent hitter in his prime. I can't recall if the slow start withe stick is why San Diego traded him?

[Dantes929]

 

He's Gibsonian!

He's Puntonian!

[Dantes929]

 

The only player you can conclusively say is better than Joe in Twins history is Killebrew. 21 seasons, 559 HR, 143 OPS+, six top-5 MVP finishes.

 

After that, your contenders are Carew, Oliva, Puckett and Paul Sorrento.

 

Carew = 12 seasons, 137 OPS+, six batting titles

Oliva = 15 seasons, 131 OPS+

Puckett = 12 season, 124 OPS+, 6 GG, postseason magic

Mauer = 14 seasons, 126 OPS+, MVP, 3 GG, 3 batting titles

 

Those are all pretty close, especially when you take position into account. Puckett was a CF and thus more valuable than Oliva in RF and Carew at 2B/1B but much less valuable than Mauer at C.

 

I personally go Killebrew, Carew, Mauer, Puckett, Oliva but can see almost any order of the last four. And I think Mauer can catch Carew on my list with a few more good years at the tail end of his career. (And I love Carew: my favorite is that he stole home seven times in 1969. I get teams didn't scout or have video back then but seven times???)

Kind of left off Oliva's 3 batting titles and GG.   Sorrento?

[Doubles]

One thing about Mauer-  he has had several periods in his career when he hits .400 and gets on base at a .500 clip.  I mean extended periods-  like more than a month, sometimes probably even two month stretches like that.  That is really hard to do in baseball.

[Doomtints]

Mauer has had strong 1-2 month stretches since his injury. It would be great if he's back in top form forever, sure.

[jkcarew]

 

The only player you can conclusively say is better than Joe in Twins history is Killebrew. 21 seasons, 559 HR, 143 OPS+, six top-5 MVP finishes.

The hard thing about evaluating Mauer in history is that he has had two careers...and in two very different ball parks.  His career as a catcher was at the very top of HOF standards offensively...no question.  On the other hand, while he was at least average defensively...probably above average...he caught fewer games per season (and for way fewer season's obviously) than the all-time greats.  This, even before his concussion.  He was always mixing in games at DH and then there were his seasons of various pre-concussion injuries.  As a first-baseman, due to a number of factors probably, he hasn't been anywhere near HOF worthy.  Including this season, by the way.  His current .810 OPS/117 OPS+ was bested by Kent Hrbek in about 10 different seasons.

 

So, Mauer the catcher is top 5 Twin all time.  I would agree with that.  However, his legacy will always suffer from the production at first base in the second half of his career...and from the relatively few games and seasons, the shortness, of his catching career.

[spinowner]

 

It's WAR, but it is a relative ranking among catchers. Is it your claim that Mauer in 2009, in just 109 games caught, was racking up more of those "many things" (catching intangibles) than fellow catchers Bench, Posey, etc.? Or do you have 3-4 catcher seasons in your all-time top 10?

Well, I'll confess that when I said top 10 I may have used a bit of hyperbole to make a point, but Mauer's catching skills were at a peak and his offense was off the charts. And he probably would have caught 18-20 more games and DH'd in another 2-4 had he been available during April. The fact that he missed an entire month is, to me, the only reason not to consider that season to be one of the best ever.

[ThejacKmp]

 

The hard thing about evaluating Mauer in history is that he has had two careers...and in two very different ball parks.  His career as a catcher was at the very top of HOF standards offensively...no question.  On the other hand, while he was at least average defensively...probably above average...he caught fewer games per season (and for way fewer season's obviously) than the all-time greats.  This, even before his concussion.  He was always mixing in games at DH and then there were his seasons of various pre-concussion injuries.  As a first-baseman, due to a number of factors probably, he hasn't been anywhere near HOF worthy.  Including this season, by the way.  His current .810 OPS/117 OPS+ was bested by Kent Hrbek in about 10 different seasons.

 

So, Mauer the catcher is top 5 Twin all time.  I would agree with that.  However, his legacy will always suffer from the production at first base in the second half of his career...and from the relatively few games and seasons, the shortness, of his catching career.

 

I think you have to look at his career as a whole. Harmon Killebrew's last three years were a rather pedestrian 111 OPS+ and his first five years saw limited action and poor results but we consider those as well. Tony Oliva's last five years were a 103 OPS+ but we include those. Carew's tailing off (still respectable!) took place with the Angels. When you look at those guys, actually, Joe's time at 1B (106 OPS+) seems relatively expected for a tail end of the career - even better if he can turn it up for a few years here.

 

His peak is a bit shorter - 8 years at 139 OPS+ compared to 11 at 143 OPS+ for Carew, 8 at 140 OPS+ for Oliva and 14 at 151 OPS+ for Harmon. But it's not that much shorter and playing catcher outweighs that. I might even move him up #2 all-time with that peak and positional scarcity especially considering . . .

 

Joe Mauer was pretty universally considered one of the top defensive catchers in the game, as evidenced by three gold gloves. Obviously our "modern" concept of catching and statistics is hard to apply but I think we can say that he was decidedly more than "probably above average." He was an elite defensive catcher, one of the best in the league. The stats we do have back that up - he threw out 33% of base stealers in his career including three seasons above 43%. Without all the stats, we go by word of mouth and he was pretty regularly cited as at the top of the field, usually right behind Yadier Molina.

 

 

[Doomtints]

 

The only player you can conclusively say is better than Joe in Twins history is Killebrew. 21 seasons, 559 HR, 143 OPS+, six top-5 MVP finishes.

 

After that, your contenders are Carew, Oliva, Puckett and Paul Sorrento.

 

Carew = 12 seasons, 137 OPS+, six batting titles

Oliva = 15 seasons, 131 OPS+

Puckett = 12 season, 124 OPS+, 6 GG, postseason magic

Mauer = 14 seasons, 126 OPS+, MVP, 3 GG, 3 batting titles

 

WAA will more accurately reflect a player's entire career, both peak and decline years. Let's take a look:

 

Carew (in a Twins uniform):  39.9

Killebrew (in a Senators/Twins uniform):  28.1

Mauer:  27.6

Puckett:  25.5

Oliva:  20.1

You are right about one player being head and shoulders above the others, but you are wrong about which one.  It's OK, this is a common mistake.  People have figured out that players who have incredibly long careers have inflated WARs along with other stats.  Use WAA to determine the truly elite players.

 

If Mauer's WAA had not been flat for the past 3 years, he would be well into the 30s by now and be a HOF lock.  Even now, HOF is not out of the question.

Edited September 8, 2017 by Doomtints

[Mike Sixel]

I like the stats, and ignoring baserunning to determine best Twin ever.....

 

It's Carew, and it's not close, IMO. Followed by Killibrew. Then a huge gap. 

 

****I'm looking at full careers, not just as Twins.

 

******None of that takes away from Mauer as one of the great players in their history, btw....as for his defense, I think we read a lot about his inability to get the low strike relative to some other catchers. 

Edited September 8, 2017 by Mike Sixel

[jkcarew]

 

Joe Mauer was pretty universally considered one of the top defensive catchers in the game, as evidenced by three gold gloves. Obviously our "modern" concept of catching and statistics is hard to apply but I think we can say that he was decidedly more than "probably above average." He was an elite defensive catcher, one of the best in the league. The stats we do have back that up - he threw out 33% of base stealers in his career including three seasons above 43%.

I'll agree with this assessment.  The problem is that he didn't catch a ton, even during the years you site.  Even in contemporary terms.  During Joe's 10 seasons of catching, A.J. Pierzynski for instance, caught about 350 games more than Joe.  You cite 8 seasons of elite rate stats elsewhere in your post, but Joe only had 6 seasons where he caught even half of the Twins games...and that's counting one where he caught about 90.  To have the full 'extra' value of providing the averages he provided (both offensively and defensively) from the catcher position...you have to actually be playing the position in games.  And it doesn't matter why you weren't playing or why your peak included a relatively small number of games.  Just ask Tony Oliva.

 

But that is really a Cooperstown discussion (or will be in the not to distant future), so I'm off topic in that regard.  With regard to all-time great Twins, he's top 5 in my mind.  And you can make a reasonable argument that 2009 was the greatest season ever by a Twin.  (FWIW, I saw Killebrew's 1969 and Carew's 1977.  Sigh.)

[ThejacKmp]

 

I'll agree with this assessment.  The problem is that he didn't catch a ton, even during the years you site.  Even in contemporary terms.  During Joe's 10 seasons of catching, A.J. Pierzynski for instance, caught about 350 games more than Joe.  You cite 8 seasons of elite rate stats elsewhere in your post, but Joe only had 6 seasons where he caught even half of the Twins games...and that's counting one where he caught about 90.  To have the full 'extra' value of providing the averages he provided (both offensively and defensively) from the catcher position...you have to actually be playing the position in games.  And it doesn't matter why you weren't playing or why your peak included a relatively small number of games.  Just ask Tony Oliva.

 

But that is really a Cooperstown discussion (or will be in the not to distant future), so I'm off topic in that regard.  With regard to all-time great Twins, he's top 5 in my mind.  And you can make a reasonable argument that 2009 was the greatest season ever by a Twin.  (FWIW, I saw Killebrew's 1969 and Carew's 1977.  Sigh.)

 

Interesting about him DHing so much. Partly because it doesn't jive with my memory of those years. Partly because it kind of makes sense - the Twins never had a good DH during that period so it would figure that there was less opportunity cost in DHing Joe more often. Benching Jason Tyner is not benching David Ortiz. If the Twins had a better DH, they might have had Joe catch more.

[ThejacKmp]

 

I like the stats, and ignoring baserunning to determine best Twin ever.....

 

It's Carew, and it's not close, IMO. Followed by Killibrew. Then a huge gap. 

 

****I'm looking at full careers, not just as Twins.

 

******None of that takes away from Mauer as one of the great players in their history, btw....as for his defense, I think we read a lot about his inability to get the low strike relative to some other catchers. 

 

Then where is David Ortiz? Or Jim Thome? Or Paul Molitor? You have to look at Twins career. It's the only way to judge greatest player. Killebrew > Carew because he was here for his full prime. Mauer may catch Carew someday even though Carew will likely always be a better overall player unless you really value a decade of catching.

[ThejacKmp]

WAA will more accurately reflect a player's entire career, both peak and decline years. Let's take a look:

 

Carew (in a Twins uniform):  39.9

Killebrew (in a Senators/Twins uniform):  28.1

Mauer:  27.6

Puckett:  25.5

Oliva:  20.1

 

You are right about one player being head and shoulders above the others, but you are wrong about which one.  It's OK, this is a common mistake.  People have figured out that players who have incredibly long careers have inflated WARs along with other stats.  Use WAA to determine the truly elite players.

 

If Mauer's WAA had not been flat for the past 3 years, he would be well into the 30s by now and be a HOF lock.  Even now, HOF is not out of the question.

 

Now I don't know WAA at all so you can correct me if I'm wrong. But . . .

 

Since Carew didn't have his down years as a Twin, wouldn't he have an artificially higher WAA than Killebrew, Oliva, Mauer? If we removed the last three years of Mauer because he was playing in Japan, he'd be higher. Same thing if Killebrew missed the down period of his career.

 

WAA doesn't seem to be the best determiner here. Perhaps WAA from the prime and then we take into consideration any other time some other way? I dunno, it's hard since Carew left for Cali.

[jkcarew]

 

I like the stats, and ignoring baserunning to determine best Twin ever.....

 

It's Carew, and it's not close, IMO. Followed by Killibrew. Then a huge gap. 

 

****I'm looking at full careers, not just as Twins.

As you might guess by my moniker,  I LIKE this!  I love expressing my opinion that Carew was better than Killebrew.  I usually don't stick around long to argue it, though.  .  Anyway, they were so different in style...couldn't get more different.  And yet had a ton of respect for each other.

[Doomtints]

 

Now I don't know WAA at all so you can correct me if I'm wrong. But . . .

 

Since Carew didn't have his down years as a Twin, wouldn't he have an artificially higher WAA than Killebrew, Oliva, Mauer? If we removed the last three years of Mauer because he was playing in Japan, he'd be higher. Same thing if Killebrew missed the down period of his career.

 

WAA doesn't seem to be the best determiner here. Perhaps WAA from the prime and then we take into consideration any other time some other way? I dunno, it's hard since Carew left for Cali.

 

I did not include Carew's WAA outside of the Twins organization because it is even higher and I figured it would not be fair to the other players.  Carew's Career WAA is 46. Carew's "decline" -- where he kept playing in spite of being a below average player -- was to the tune of -1.8 WAA and lasted a mere season and a half.

Edited September 8, 2017 by Doomtints

[Mike Sixel]

 

Then where is David Ortiz? Or Jim Thome? Or Paul Molitor? You have to look at Twins career. It's the only way to judge greatest player. Killebrew > Carew because he was here for his full prime. Mauer may catch Carew someday even though Carew will likely always be a better overall player unless you really value a decade of catching.

 

David Ortiz played 1 year here, as did Thome? But I get your general point....

 

 

[jkcarew]

 

Interesting about him DHing so much. Partly because it doesn't jive with my memory of those years. Partly because it kind of makes sense - the Twins never had a good DH during that period so it would figure that there was less opportunity cost in DHing Joe more often. Benching Jason Tyner is not benching David Ortiz. If the Twins had a better DH, they might have had Joe catch more.

Not really DH'ing THAT much...just not playing.  Injuries and days off.  Again, when we get to the HOF arguments...it won't matter why...the questing will simply be "will evaluators consider his career to have been a catching career?".  But every year like this year that 'slows the bleeding' on his career averages, (while giving the totals a bit of a boost, as well)...can't hurt.

[ThejacKmp]

 

I did not include Carew's WAA outside of the Twins organization because it is even higher and I figured it would not be fair to the other players.  Carew's Career WAA is 46. Carew's "decline" -- where he kept playing in spite of being a below average player -- was to the tune of -1.8 WAA and lasted a mere season and a half.

 

Yeah, not saying your stats were manipulative. Carew had a remarkably late and minor decline.

 

But thoughts as to my points about Killebrew and Mauer being better off if they spent their last few years in Japan? When we're talking greatest Twins should we penalize guys for sticking around to the end? That hardly seems fair, especially since it's not like Mauer or Killebrew's down season coincided with up periods for the Twins where they blocked more deserving players.

 

I think it's more that WAA is a bad stat to use on its own for this.

[ThejacKmp]

 

Not really DH'ing THAT much...just not playing.  Injuries and days off.  Again, when we get to the HOF arguments...it won't matter why...the questing will simply be "will evaluators consider his career to have been a catching career?".  But every year like this year that 'slows the bleeding' on his career averages, (while giving the totals a bit of a boost, as well)...can't hurt.

 

I mean, I looked and he was DHing a decent amount of the time, playing 1B a bit too when Morneau was down.