Article: MIN 17, KC 0: What Negative Run Differential?

[Tom Froemming]

A big storyline, especially early in the season, was how the Twins had a winning record despite a negative run differential. That carried through the rest of the season, but a big August coupled with a drubbing of the Royals Saturday night has resulted in the Twins getting into the black. After a 17-0 win, they’ve scored 669 runs and allowed 668 on the season.Snapshot (chart via Fangraphs)

Download attachment: Snapshot92.png

I’m sure Paul Molitor and his team heard the terms “Phythagorean win-loss record” and “negative run differential” enough to where those phrases are like nails on a chalkboard now. After tonight’s blowout win, maybe those won’t be such trigger terms for the club.

 

As you could imagine, there were plenty of notable performances. Maybe the most encouraging of which was from Kyle Gibson, who pitched six innings but surely could have gone longer. He limited Kansas City to five singles and tallied five strikeouts while not issuing a single walk. And he did all that on just 81 pitches.

 

Gibby hasn’t allowed four or more runs in seven-straight starts, but he’s been particularly impressive over his last three outings. In that span, he’s given up just three runs over 19.2 innings (1.37 ERA) and has 20 K's against just two walks.

 

Another great sight was Byron Buxton’s return to the starting lineup. He hit a standup triple in his first at-bat back and ended the night 3-for-5 with three runs and two RBI. Joe Mauer was 4-for-4 with a double tonight, raising his average to .303 and his OPS to .801. We haven’t seen Joe hit those benchmarks since 2013. Over the last 22 games, Mauer is hitting .438 (39-for-89).

 

Eduardo Escobar hit a pair of homers, giving him 14 on the season, and a triple. He drove in six runs. Brian Dozier hit his 27th home run of the year. Jorge Polanco had a pair of hits, because multi-hit games are the only kind of games he has now.

 

Another fun thing to see was Niko Goodrum making his major league debut. He entered the game in the sixth inning, played second base and was 0-for-2.

 

Standings

The Yankees also won Saturday, so the Twins are still behind a game for the top wild card spot. The Angels are two back of the Twins, but their Saturday game was still in progress when this published. But Baltimore lost, so they trail Minnesota by 2.5 games. Cleveland won its 10th-straight game, maintaining their eight-game lead in the division.

 

Postgame With Molitor

Bullpen Usage

Here’s a quick look at the number of pitches thrown by the bullpen over the past five days:

Download attachment: Bullpen92.png

Looking Ahead

Sun: Twins (Ervin Santana) vs. Royals (Ian Kennedy), 1:10 pm CT

Mon: Twins (Jose Berrios) at Rays (Alex Cobb), 6:10 pm CT

Tue: Twins (Bartolo Colon) at Rays (Jake Odorizzi), 6:10 pm CT

 

Looking Back

KC 7, MIN 6: Oh, So Close

MIN 5, CHW 4: Twins Win on Walk-Off HBP

MIN 11, CHW 1: Rosario Hits 2 HRs, Buxton Exits With Injury

 

Click here to view the article

[Dantes929]

The run differential reflected the kind of team we were in the first half.   It was overcome by winning our share of close games and when getting beat often getting beat by a wide margin which mostly reflected the lack of depth of our bullpen.    This is a different and better team right now but don't get fooled into thinking this is who we are or that we don't need Sano.   Mauer isn't going to bat .438 and Polanco is going to come back to earth also.     Please lets win tomorrow.   If we lost another one run game we would have lost 2 of three while outscoring them  by 15.  Would that be a record also?  Certainly not the kind I want to see.

[Darius]

That was awesome. Really fun to watch.

 

Get the series win tomorrow, and hopefully get a game in the Yankees and/or Angels.

 

Angels hit a two run shot in the ninth to tie tonight, then won in extras. Tough break.

Edited September 3, 2017 by Darius

[Jham]

We were also leaving the most men on base in the league. If you're good enough to get them on, you should be good enough to get them in. Now we are. I think having several black holes in the line up led to a lot of strands. Now those black holes are carrying the team, or nursing a concussion.

[twinsfanstreif]

So.......can we all like Joe Mauer again?

[Squirrel]

So.......can we all like Joe Mauer again?

Only until we don't.

[ThejacKmp]

 

The run differential reflected the kind of team we were in the first half.   It was overcome by winning our share of close games and when getting beat often getting beat by a wide margin which mostly reflected the lack of depth of our bullpen.    This is a different and better team right now but don't get fooled into thinking this is who we are or that we don't need Sano.   Mauer isn't going to bat .438 and Polanco is going to come back to earth also.     Please lets win tomorrow.   If we lost another one run game we would have lost 2 of three while outscoring them  by 15.  Would that be a record also?  Certainly not the kind I want to see.

 

Chris Giminez hasn't pitched since June. June!

 

This team has only lost by more than four twice since the second game of the second half. That's super fing powerful.

[h2oface]

I heard a rumor that Gibson stopped by and said "Bite Me".

[DocBauer]

Never bought in to the run differential idea. To paraphrase a line from Bull Durham: "we measure everything in baseball." The problem is, despite measuring everything, there are statistics, and there is reality. Pick apart this team all you want to. Bleed dry numbers and observations and holes here and there, beat as many dead carcasses as you will, this is a pretty good baseball team. Sure there is room for improvement from within and out to make it better and more complete. But they have been in the thick of things for most of the season, still are, and have been above .500 for most all season long.

 

You win games...you blow out some games...you get blown up some games. Said it before and will say it again; you lose badly 2 games out of 5 but win the other 3 games, guess What? You are still 3-2.

 

Off my soapbox now. This team is just FUN! There is just no quit in them. They lose the opener to KC in which they could have easily won, and seem to come back the next night, frankly, pissed off and go out and kick some ass. And they've done this before.

 

Just imagine how good they can be with a little more maturation, and just another addition or two.

[DocBauer]

Anyone else read the article in the Pioneer about Buxton and choking up on the bat? Apparently he was messing around in the cage, choked up a bit, and really liked the results. This was just before the break, and he's hit .349 with 9HR since then with a .402 BABIP. He goes on to state he felt like he had better control of his bat and the zone.

[Eephus]

How would you like to be Esco today? He has 2 HRs, a triple and 6 rbi and he gets 5th billing after run differential, Gibson, Mauer and Buxton. 

 

As you say, Tom, plenty of notable performances. These guys are spoiling us. Thanks for the nice recap!

[Circus Boy]

Lately Gibby's cut 2-3 seconds off between pitches, and the faster pace helps him throw more strikes and keeps the defense limber. Me likey.

 

Oh, and the hitting's amazing. It never feels like we're out of any game now. Gotta feel great for these players to come to work every day.

[mikelink45]

This is a team that is playing like our 1965 Twins - not just Killebrew in the lineup, but Hall, Allison, Oliva, Versailles, Mincher, Rollins, and Battey.  Some hits and thunder throughout the line up.  I am excited to see Sano return and I hope he has observed how important it is to make contact and get more than HRs.  This has been a very fun run.

[carlito_b]

Another thing that fits with erasing that run differential in one month is Polancos batting average it went up around 40 or 50 points didn't it? Pretty crazy

[jmlease1]

 

So.......can we all like Joe Mauer again?

 

I never stopped. The transition away from catcher was a little rough, but the drop off was more about the injuries than anything else. I never blamed him for the contract. It's great to see the bat returning to form and coupled with the Gold Glove defense he's giving us it's been a lot of fun to watch.

 

Still not sold on Gibson, but it is good to see him turn in a strong performance against a better team. He's been much better the second half of the season, but he was brutal in the first half. Even now, he's still only had a game score more than 50 in 7 out of 24 starts. That ain't good.

[Dantes929]

 

Never bought in to the run differential idea. To paraphrase a line from Bull Durham: "we measure everything in baseball." The problem is, despite measuring everything, there are statistics, and there is reality. Pick apart this team all you want to. Bleed dry numbers and observations and holes here and there, beat as many dead carcasses as you will, this is a pretty good baseball team. Sure there is room for improvement from within and out to make it better and more complete. But they have been in the thick of things for most of the season, still are, and have been above .500 for most all season long.

You win games...you blow out some games...you get blown up some games. Said it before and will say it again; you lose badly 2 games out of 5 but win the other 3 games, guess What? You are still 3-2.
 

I like it as a general stat and also as a long term one.   In your example, it obviously means nothing but over the course of 162 games those kinds of series tend to even out and when there is the kind of negative differential we had with a winning record it is interesting to try to figure out why.    As TheJackKmp said we have not had the blow out losses in the 2nd half so if our run differential had continued in the deficit column we would not have had the success  in the win column.  Over the long haul you cannot keep running a 60 run deficit.    Many run differentials vs win/loss are pretty close over a full season with the occasional out flier.   Way too lazy but if you ran any teams's  10 year run differential I am guessing it would come out very close.

[Dantes929]

 

I heard a rumor that Gibson stopped by and said "Bite Me".

I heard it was Gibson, Mauer, Dozier, Polanco and Buxton.   Molitor might have been there also.  

[RaymondLuxuryYacht]

 

I never stopped. The transition away from catcher was a little rough, but the drop off was more about the injuries than anything else. I never blamed him for the contract. It's great to see the bat returning to form and coupled with the Gold Glove defense he's giving us it's been a lot of fun to watch.

 

 

 

I read somewhere that the last time he was over 300 was the game he got concussed.

[lukeduke1980]

One thing I've noticed on Joe is he looks like he's running with ease around the bases. His legs must feel good and strong which is important for his hitting base.  

[bird]

I seem to recall the run differential being mentioned most often in conjunction with opinions that the Twins couldn't get back into contention or stay in contention without making significant roster additions. I doubt very many people not employed within the Twins organization thought players on the current roster  might improve enough to turn this team into a different team. It wasn't foreseeable to them or to anyone, but it happened. What an amazing season! And kudos to the field staff for their patience while so many of these players endured very serious and lengthy periods of not just minor performance deficits, but in many cases, really putrid results.

[Brandon]

I wonder if Colon "trusting his stuff" and succeeding is such the example that it is helping the others to do the same and now were seeing them succeed too.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I read somewhere that the last time he was over 300 was the game he got concussed.

He's been over .300 since then but never for long and obviously never this late in the season.