Article: Versatile Goodrum Gets September Call

[ThejacKmp]

 

I definitely think people undervalue what Escobar brings to the team. He's shown that when given consistent playing time, he can hit and has some pop. He can play 3 positions pretty well, and he - from all I've seen - is truly a leader in that clubhouse. I don't know if they'll pay him $4 million next year to be a top utility guy, but I definitely think we need to realize that he has some value.

 

Now, Goodrum I think can have a role as a utility guy on rosters. I don't know if he will, but he's got a ton of talent that has just started really coming together the last year. He's got room to continue progressing too. I think his ability to play 7 positions at least adequately is a big deal, especially with more and more teams (including the Twins) often going to 13 pitchers. 

 

His OPS+ is 89. He has some pop but only in the sense that he is a far-below-replacement-level hitter. Escobar's pop is highly overrated because he's streaky.

 

He plays three positions pretty well but the Twins already have a guy (Adrianza) who plays those positions better and who can play a passable outfield. They also have a young guy in Niko who can play the same positions as Escobar, plus OF, and who profiles to be a better hitter (and one who is 25 and thus on the way up, not 29 and on the way down).

 

So it comes down to veteran leadership in the clubhouse. That's fine and all but Escobar shouldn't be playing down the stretch except as a late-inning PR or PH for a catcher. He shouldn't be on any postseason roster (knock on wood) and he definitely shouldn't be in the Twins plans for next year. Somehow I think none of those are going to be true, and that's crappy.

[Thrylos]

Here are some important numbers regarding Goodrum:

 

.333/.388/.464 Goodrum's slash line against LHPs with 1:2 BB:K ratio (138 AB)
.235/.275/.409 Goodrum's line against RHPs with 1:5.5 BB:K ratio (323 AB)

 

Twins 2017 against LHP:

 

Kepler: .131/.202/.172
Vargas: .185/.262/.296 

 

Adrianza: .243/.268/.351 

 

Escobar: .250/.320/.402 
Rosario: .288/.300/.424

 

So Goodrum can slot in at the DH or 1B spot instead of Vargas when a lefty starts and at the OF instead of Kepler, without dealing with situations like having Adrianza (who is not hitting lefties well either) start.  And his versatility can allow him to PH for pretty much anyone necessary if they pop a LHP later in the game, esp. when the Twins are trailing. 

[ThejacKmp]

 

the evidence is the huge, vast, nearly every, player that makes AAA does not turn into a good MLB player. There is no "I think" here, that's just the simple math.

 

Yes. Let's do some more simple math. How many guys who have an OPS+ of 89 over two seasons and 88 for a career have their spot cemented when they're making $2 million? How many of them have people defending them based on their performance? Going from AAA to the MLB level is an adjustment, no doubt. But it's way more likely that that player adjusts than that a 30 year old utility infielder suddenly overcoming a half decade of evidence that he's a subpar player.

 

I can't believe this is even a point of contention. Look at Escobar's numbers. They are terrible. Get someone else in, he can hardly do worse.

[ThejacKmp]

 

Here are some important numbers regarding Goodrum:

 

.333/.388/.464 Goodrum's slash line against LHPs with 1:2 BB:K ratio (138 AB)
.235/.275/.409 Goodrum's line against RHPs with 1:5.5 BB:K ratio (323 AB)

 

Twins 2017 against LHP:

 

Kepler: .131/.202/.172
Vargas: .185/.262/.296 

 

Adrianza: .243/.268/.351 

 

Escobar: .250/.320/.402 
Rosario: .288/.300/.424

 

So Goodrum can slot in at the DH or 1B spot instead of Vargas when a lefty starts and at the OF instead of Kepler, without dealing with situations like having Adrianza (who is not hitting lefties well either) start.  And his versatility can allow him to PH for pretty much anyone necessary if they pop a LHP later in the game, esp. when the Twins are trailing. 

 

That's nice data. This still puts Escobar playing everyday at 3B. That's not ideal, he's not particularly good. I'd rather bet on Goodrum at 3B and keep Kepler in the OF. It's at least better defensively.

[ThejacKmp]

 

Twins 2017 against LHP:

 

Kepler: .131/.202/.172
Vargas: .185/.262/.296 

 

Adrianza: .243/.268/.351 

 

Escobar: .250/.320/.402 
Rosario: .288/.300/.424

 

 

Three righties this weekend against KC. Thank you Jebus. With Sano out, I cringe every time we face a lefty. I'm sick of watching Vargas strike out and Escobar look overmatched.

 

I like giving AB to Kepler - he's going to have to hit LHP at some point or else he's a platoon OF. I have higher hopes for the young man.

[drivlikejehu]

 

Yes. Let's do some more simple math. How many guys who have an OPS+ of 89 over two seasons and 88 for a career have their spot cemented when they're making $2 million? How many of them have people defending them based on their performance? Going from AAA to the MLB level is an adjustment, no doubt. But it's way more likely that that player adjusts than that a 30 year old utility infielder suddenly overcoming a half decade of evidence that he's a subpar player.

 

I can't believe this is even a point of contention. Look at Escobar's numbers. They are terrible. Get someone else in, he can hardly do worse.

 

This is just factually wrong - it's actually very easy to be worse than Escobar. Of batters with 250+ PAs this year, he is 221/278 in RC+, and most of those players are everyday regulars, not utility guys. And when you narrow the focus to infielders, Escobar is around middle of the pack.

 

Goodrum is a league-average hitter in AAA, which projects him to be way below average in the Majors, and his defense is basically an unknown. I mean, he's a utility player in AAA. 

 

Escobar is almost certainly better now and in the near future. How material the difference is . . . that's a different question. 

[yarnivek1972]

 

Here are some important numbers regarding Goodrum:

 

.333/.388/.464 Goodrum's slash line against LHPs with 1:2 BB:K ratio (138 AB)
.235/.275/.409 Goodrum's line against RHPs with 1:5.5 BB:K ratio (323 AB)

 

Twins 2017 against LHP:

 

Kepler: .131/.202/.172
Vargas: .185/.262/.296 

 

Adrianza: .243/.268/.351 

 

Escobar: .250/.320/.402 
Rosario: .288/.300/.424

 

So Goodrum can slot in at the DH or 1B spot instead of Vargas when a lefty starts and at the OF instead of Kepler, without dealing with situations like having Adrianza (who is not hitting lefties well either) start.  And his versatility can allow him to PH for pretty much anyone necessary if they pop a LHP later in the game, esp. when the Twins are trailing. 

Kepler isn't going to improve vs LHP if he doesn't face them.  I'm not willing to define a 24 year old as a platoon player.  

[stringer bell]

This year, Goodrum might be an extra piece who gets some starts against LH pitching. If he shows himself to be satisfactory, I think it means the exit of either Arianza or Escobar, most likely Escobar. The Twins stand to have only one utility infielder next year, if Goodrum were in Rochester with an option. Any injury to a position player other than a catcher and Goodrum could get the call to replace that player.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I disagree. I love Escobar as much as anyone else but we all overstate his awesomeness. We love the guy and remember the big hits but it doesn’t hold up when you look at his stats.

His OPS with the Twins is .692. His OPS+ is 88 during that span. Last year his OPS+ was 67, this year it is all the way up to 89. He has two seasons where he was just above a 100 OPS+ but that was three and four years ago - he’s pretty clearly past his prime as he enters his age 30 season since he’s not even a replacement level player. It is ludicrous that Escobar has been the cleanup hitter for the Twins of late – there should be more outrage about this. He’s Nick Punto-esque with the bat but even Nicky never batted cleanup.

Defensively, he’s nothing special as a SS and is pretty awful in the OF – emergency at best. He’s a fine 2B and 3B but Adrianza is better at all of the positions than Escobar.

We need to look at the minors to compare him to Niko. Escobar’s minor league track record shows a .688 OPS in AAA and .670 in AA. By contrast, Goodrum put up a .763 OPS in AA and .734 in AAA. He played 15 games in CF in AAA and 62 in the OF and thus seems likely to be a better backup OF. He’s also played all over the infield – and again, Adrianza is the first defensive sub in the IF.

Outside of leadership/clubhouse factors (and we all are sick of Gimenez getting the benefit of the doubt for those so that should mean little) there’s almost no reason to play Escobar over Goodrum going forward this year, let alone next year. Escobar is not a good MLB player and he is 29. Goodrum is four years younger, is more versatile in the field and seems likely to hit better based on equivalent track records. Plus he’ll be way cheaper – Escobar is about to get a bump up in arbitration.

I love Escobar but no way should he be on the Twins next year. Goodrum is better in every way. The argument really should be whether the Twins carry a utility guy like Goodrum or a bigger bench bat like Vargas (ugh) or Palka.

Fun fact: Escobar has a career MLB OPS (.690) that is only marginally lower than Goodrum's MiLB OPS (.712).

 

Goodrum is 25 years old and getting a September cup of coffee. Escobar was in the majors at age 22 or 23.

 

Goodrum is not better in every way. Maybe you think the $4.5m-ish saved by replacing Escobar is more valuable than the gap of play between the two players but Goodrum is not the offensive equal of Escobar, much less superior.

[stringer bell]

Niko Goodrum hasn't established himself, that is obvious with only six at-bats. He's gotten his name in BB Reference and earned free health care. If he shows enough the rest of this season, he could push Escobar out the door. First and foremost, he would give the Twins the roster flexibility to carry only one utility infielder. Goodrum would have options and could fill in if any position player other than a catcher were disabled. With Adrianza profiling as more of the traditional utility infielder (good glove, good wheels, switch hitter) and the three starters all being more bat-first players, I think he is a good fit as the primary utility infielder. That pushes Escobar out the door.

 

Niko Goodrum isn't better than Eduardo Escobar and might never be. Esco is a pretty good player, but he's never been able to establish himself as a major league regular in almost six years. However, he has already hit 15 homers in less than 400 plate appearances and figures to be the regular third baseman perhaps for the rest of the season. Goodrum and Escobar are similar in some respects, with more power than traditional utility guys and positional flexibility. Goodrum also would save the Twins $3M, not to be ignored. Finally, Goodrum is a more established outfielder than certainly Escobar and probably Adrianza.

 

The Twins would also have to make the decision that Sanó could play third 140 games. He hasn't been able to in his first 2.5 seasons. If they don't believe Miggy can make it through a whole season at third, they probably will keep Esco as an insurance policy.