Article: Whiff Of Success: Gibson Making Bats Miss

[Nick Nelson]

 

I am sorry but this article is way over optimistic about Gibson due to his success against two thoroughly mediocre teams. Also included in his 'great' month is a 3.90 ERA and 2 games where he didn't make it through the 5th inning.

I didn't really focus that much on results, and that was intentional. What I'm looking at here is the underlying trends, and what it might mean about Gibson's efforts to get right physically and fine-tune his revamped approach. It's not about the results, it's about his execution, his big increase in whiff rate, his velocity (highest since he was a rookie). 

 

To say, "Gibson hasn't been good over the past two seasons so he's a bad pitcher" is an oversimplification for the reasons laid out.

 

Anyway, at no point did I say that he's locked up a job for next year. Only that he's setting himself up well to do so in September.

[dbminn]

 

4.25 would give him around the 35th lowest ERA in the game.....among qualifiers. That seems a bit lofty to me...

 

You're probably right but it wouldn't be any fun if I predicted 4.75. Also, his combined ERA was about that for his first two full years (4.17). 

[Mike Sixel]

 

You're probably right but it wouldn't be any fun if I predicted 4.75. Also, his combined ERA was about that for his first two full years (4.17). 

 

[Doomtints]

This will make some people scoff, but the entire pitching staff is better since Colon arrived.

[markos]

 

You're probably right but it wouldn't be any fun if I predicted 4.75. Also, his combined ERA was about that for his first two full years (4.17). 

This is where the change in run environment gets kind of screwy. The league-average AL starter ERA in 2014 was 3.82; in 2015 it was 4.02. Now it 4.55. So Gibson's 4.17 from 2014-2015 isn't that different than a 4.75 today.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

This will make some people scoff, but the entire pitching staff is better since Colon arrived.

It's something I've noticed, though I'm reluctant to give Colon credit for the improvement.

 

Then again, I'm not ruling it out entirely, either.

[Mike Sixel]

 

It's something I've noticed, though I'm reluctant to give Colon credit for the improvement.

 

Then again, I'm not ruling it out entirely, either.

 

agreed, sometimes things are coincidence, and sometimes they aren't. But this is likely THE most common fallacy, I'd think....

[old nurse]

 

Both Santana and Berrios qualify under those circumstances.

 

Will either of them beat Kershaw? No, probably not, but that's an unreasonable standard to hold a human being.

 

But both of them can give you a 3 ER, 6 IP game against the best teams.

3 ER in 6 gives you a chance when your hitters come through. That was the problem with the Twins' playoff teams. The starters could get you that level. Your 3-4 starters need to give you that level also. That ability is really hit and miss right now, with the "hit" rate is below the Mendoza line. Santana could beat the Yankees. Before he could pitch again the playoffs might be over.  Hitting seems to be carrying the team right now.  That might not fare so well against a Houston team that appears to have pitchers with good seasons.

[dbminn]

 

This is where the change in run environment gets kind of screwy. The league-average AL starter ERA in 2014 was 3.82; in 2015 it was 4.02. Now it 4.55. So Gibson's 4.17 from 2014-2015 isn't that different than a 4.75 today.

 

All true. Still, I made a prediction and now I have to live with it!

[MN_ExPat]

 

Can we stop framing this as if people are actively rooting for him to fail? I haven't seen anyone hoping for that and it's rudely misrepresentative. I'm sure everyone here would be ecstatic if he leveled off to a reliable #4/#5 starter.

 

What I have seen is a lot of people that have lost trust in him and won't be quick to believe he's not the same Gibson that occassionally puts a couple games together against bad teams only to go off the rails again. He doesn't have any equity built up right now and needs to continue to perform over a longer timespan and against better lineups before he'll start to earn it back.

 

Well, clearly I'm a much better writer in my head than I actually am on paper and my thoughts don't often translate well.  

 

You are correct Sir.   I fully agree that the vast majority of Twins fans, and just about everyone here, truly wants to see him succeed.   As you and others have stated, it probably is mostly frustration at his lack of ability to "get right in the head" and translate all that God given ability into consistent production on the field.  

 

Like others, I've been a huge Gibson fan since the day they drafted him (probably too much so, but a fan nonetheless).   Given that the next wave of pitching talent may not be quite "there" yet, there stands a good chance he comes back for one more year, if the current run extends through the end of the year.

 

But like you and others have said, as much as it pains me to say, we do need to see a larger body of work for my hopes and faith to be fully restored.

Edited August 31, 2017 by MN_ExPat

[kab21]

 

I didn't really focus that much on results, and that was intentional. What I'm looking at here is the underlying trends, and what it might mean about Gibson's efforts to get right physically and fine-tune his revamped approach. It's not about the results, it's about his execution, his big increase in whiff rate, his velocity (highest since he was a rookie). 

 

To say, "Gibson hasn't been good over the past two seasons so he's a bad pitcher" is an oversimplification for the reasons laid out.

 

Anyway, at no point did I say that he's locked up a job for next year. Only that he's setting himself up well to do so in September.

His increase in whiff rate is result based and still very much SSS. Even the swstr% is SSS. He started the season with 3 out of 4 games with similar rates. He had 4 straight games >10% in late May/early June. 

His velocity has held steady between 91 and 92.1 during all 5 of his MLB seasons. I wouldn't put much hope in that improvement.

And if you aren't basing this on results then is it just hoping?

[markos]

 

His increase in whiff rate is result based and still very much SSS. Even the swstr% is SSS. He started the season with 3 out of 4 games with similar rates. He had 4 straight games >10% in late May/early June. 

His velocity has held steady between 91 and 92.1 during all 5 of his MLB seasons. I wouldn't put much hope in that improvement.

And if you aren't basing this on results then is it just hoping?

There is some evidence that he has increased his sinker velocity since he came back in May. Per BrooksBaseball, it appears that he is back to his 2015 velocity:

 

4/15 92.39
5/15 92.42
6/15 92.62
7/15 92.77
8/15 92.28
9/15 91.31

-------
4/16 91.68
6/16 91.44
7/16 91.62
8/16 91.70
9/16 91.00

--------
4/17 91.58
5/17 92.51
6/17 92.18
7/17 92.65
8/17 92.22

[goulik]

Here is my Gibson take:

I've never been a Gibson guy and I really hoped the Twins would trade him to Colorado several years ago when that was a rumor. I did not ever think he was a front line or mid rotation starter. I have hoped to be proven wrong about this for years and I will always root for him to succeed as long as he is on our team. I have greatly enjoyed his recent success and I too hope it is a sign that he has finally gotten over that hump but I am not going to bet on it. It is still just a hope because he has too much history to deserve more than that.

 

Gibson has the natural ability to succeed, but he has not shown me the mental fortitude or the confidence in his stuff that he needs. Even recently, I still see him at times trying to nit pick. If he can learn (which is possible) to be confident, aggressive and resilient as he ages, he could develop into a solid 3 in a rotation. I still hope he does! Frankly we lack depth so I have no problem letting him come back next year and fight for a spot in the rotation but he needs to EARN that spot with the mental side of the game.

[jimbo92107]

As I have officially given up on Gibson for this season, I feel that my observations are reasonably objective. Gibson appears to be throwing a little more downhill than before. More of his pitches appear to be ending up in the bottom half of the zone. His breaking pitches appear to be more accurate and consistent, possibly with more spin. Seems like a lot more swings are whiffing, where in the first half they were fouling balls off. Whatever, I'll take it. Keep doing what you're doing, Mr. Gibson.

[Circus Boy]

 

This will make some people scoff, but the entire pitching staff is better since Colon arrived.

Actually, the whole staff's been better since Belisle became the closer. (ducks)

[yarnivek1972]

 

Yes, it is possible. It is also possible your refrain is getting old. Nick brings up some interesting points in the article worth noting.

Gibson pitched a 3.90 ERA in 5 August starts. Getting 12.5% swinging strikes is a big deal - and it has helped him get out of some innings that he has otherwise been unable to escape.

If he really redid his motion, that is a big deal, and it makes sense that it would take a long time to solidify. Gibson also confirmed that he moved to a different spot on the rubber, giving himself a better angle.

Gibson has certainly been teetering for awhile. But maybe he isn't quite ready to get off the merry-go-round yet.

 

 

The refrain is old because it is an old problem.  Gibson hasn't resembled a competent MLB pitcher for any extended period since July 2015 (ERA well north of 5 in that stretch).  Two good starts against two of the worst offenses in the AL doesn't change that IMO.  btw, his next two starts are against the Royals.  They currently are ranked 13th in the AL in OPS and runs scored. After that, he would likely face the Padres, the WORST run scoring team in MLB and second worst in terms of OPS.  So, the odds would seem to favor him having continued success.  Let's maybe see if Gibson can perform against the Yankees, Tigers and Indians before mentioning him in the same breath as Strasburg and Grienke.

 

With regards to Nick's comment that he "didn't focus that much on results", I guess that is your perrogative.  But MLB is a results oriented business.  One either performs, or one doesn't play.  Especially a guy with a non-guaranteed contract, like Gibson.

[ashbury]

This will make some people scoff

Not at this website, we don't.

 

http://dxuoddg10rgxw.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/17023346/scoff.jpg

[h2oface]

It is amazing how many good teams, and great pitchers, can loose to bad teams. Including these Twins (if they qualify). I remember the recent 5 game series at Chicago. A team will always need victories against poor teams. A win is a win is a win. Until the playoffs. I can't negate a good performance because it may come against bad teams and offenses. I can't and won't. It's also amazing how many great offenses can perform horribly against a great pitcher having a great day. Or if you are the Twins' offense, it seems, it can even happen against a bad pitcher having a great day. 

 

"I became a good pitcher when I stopped trying to make them miss the ball and started trying to make them hit it."    -Sandy Koufax

 

It is interesting, even in other sports, that some great players don't seem to do so well against teams with winning records.... take a look at these quarterbacks that most would have liked to have on their team.....

 

Aaron Rodgers 21-29
Drew Brees 20-48

Matt Ryan 17-22
Matthew Stafford 5-46 (new highest paid NFL player in history)

Tom Brady 50-33  (well, he is Tom Brady...)

Russell Wilson 19-12

 

Gibson changed everything about his delivery. That is a brave move. It may be gelling. I don't sell out on Polanco. I am not selling out on Gibson, yet, not with what he has done and is trying to do, for the long term. We need victories against all teams to get to the playoffs. If we get there..... we need a ton of luck, no matter who pitches.

[adorduan]

 

The refrain is old because it is an old problem.  Gibson hasn't resembled a competent MLB pitcher for any extended period since July 2015 (ERA well north of 5 in that stretch).  Two good starts against two of the worst offenses in the AL doesn't change that IMO.  btw, his next two starts are against the Royals.  They currently are ranked 13th in the AL in OPS and runs scored. After that, he would likely face the Padres, the WORST run scoring team in MLB and second worst in terms of OPS.  So, the odds would seem to favor him having continued success.  Let's maybe see if Gibson can perform against the Yankees, Tigers and Indians before mentioning him in the same breath as Strasburg and Grienke.

 

With regards to Nick's comment that he "didn't focus that much on results", I guess that is your perrogative.  But MLB is a results oriented business.  One either performs, or one doesn't play.  Especially a guy with a non-guaranteed contract, like Gibson.

Who exactly is doing that? I must have missed it.

[yarnivek1972]

Who exactly is doing that? I must have missed it.

Apparently you did because it is in the initial post.

[DocBauer]

It is amazing how many good teams, and great pitchers, can loose to bad teams. Including these Twins (if they qualify). I remember the recent 5 game series at Chicago. A team will always need victories against poor teams. A win is a win is a win. Until the playoffs. I can't negate a good performance because it may come against bad teams and offenses. I can't and won't. It's also amazing how many great offenses can perform horribly against a great pitcher having a great day. Or if you are the Twins' offense, it seems, it can even happen against a bad pitcher having a great day. 

 

"I became a good pitcher when I stopped trying to make them miss the ball and started trying to make them hit it."    -Sandy Koufax

 

It is interesting, even in other sports, that some great players don't seem to do so well against teams with winning records.... take a look at these quarterbacks that most would have liked to have on their team.....

 

Aaron Rodgers 21-29

Drew Brees 20-48

Matt Ryan 17-22

Matthew Stafford 5-46 (new highest paid NFL player in history)

Tom Brady 50-33  (well, he is Tom Brady...)

Russell Wilson 19-12

 

Gibson changed everything about his delivery. That is a brave move. It may be gelling. I don't sell out on Polanco. I am not selling out on Gibson, yet, not with what he has done and is trying to do, for the long term. We need victories against all teams to get to the playoffs. If we get there..... we need a ton of luck, no matter who pitches.

Brilliant! And I mean it. Everyone, go back and read this Again!

 

I mean, a lot of the beauty of sports is perspective. Use the analogy above and think about HOF QB Tarkenton. He "lost" 3 Super Bowls. But he absolutely re-wrote the passing records in a generation of a 14 game season predicated on the running game and stout defenses that could practically mug receivers. But Favre broke all of his records in a 16 game season format in a pass happy league, with MAJOR changes in pass interference and contact/holding rules with the most PA attempts in the history of the league.

 

Perception. Perception.

 

But back to the topic, who the hell IS Gibson? From day 1 we thought we got a steal! He practically skyrocketed through the minors, and our imaginations, as to who he might become. And there were demands he come up early, after to TJ and recovery. And surprise, surprise, he stunk when he did. (Stunk? Stank? Whatever). Then, he looked pretty good. Then he looked even better! And we dared to be tantalized with hope! And then he stunk/stanked again!

 

A few of us dared to believe and told everyone else to do the same. We said, this guy has the makings of a solid, quality SP yet. Others, outside of TD said the same thing. He worked hard to get healthy after 2016, change his conditioning, his approach, his delivery, and be teased us in ST. And then the season began and he stunk. He was sent to the minors and probably brought back too soon.

 

But something began to happen. He had a bad game against Seattle where he had a lead and continued to pitch poorly. Molitor went to the mound and publicly, though "nicely" chewed his butt. He didn't pitch great, but he pitched better. He followed it up shortly after with his best performance of the year to date before being sent down again to create roster flexibility.

 

Once back again, he threw way, way too many pitches, and left after 4 or so innings, but with low scores and his team in the game. He even got his fair share of SO. And then suddenly, he still got the SO, but was pitching 6-7 innings. And we are baffled. Who is this Gibson guy?

 

I'm still not sure why he was pulled tonight, Saturday, after 6 blank innings thrown and only 81 pitches thrown. But he is on a roll. And I have to confess to you as a past Gibson apologist, who was ready to DFA him a few weeks ago, I'm suddenly scared to let him walk. Is it really possible that a change in mechanics, a move to the other side of the rubber, experience, even a public ass chewing by Molitor, has lead him to a "bloom" point in his career?

[Major League Ready]

 

I'm still not sure why he was pulled tonight, Saturday, after 6 blank innings thrown and only 81 pitches thrown. But he is on a roll. And I have to confess to you as a past Gibson apologist, who was ready to DFA him a few weeks ago, I'm suddenly scared to let him walk. Is it really possible that a change in mechanics, a move to the other side of the rubber, experience, even a public ass chewing by Molitor, has lead him to a "bloom" point in his career?

 

To give some innings to the guys that were called up.   The six innings were plenty in terms of continuing to reinforce the changes he has made in a game situation..  At 17-0, why not save his arm for the playoff run.

Edited September 3, 2017 by Major Leauge Ready

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

To give some innings to the guys that were called up.   The six innings were plenty in terms of continuing to reinforce the changes he has made in a game situation..  At 17-0, why not save his arm for the playoff run.

Yeah, there was really no reason to keep him out there with an expanded roster. Kyle threw a good game, let the bullpen finish it out.

[drjim]

Now seems more likely than not he's back next year, right?

[Squirrel]

Now seems more likely than not he's back next year, right?

I'm excited about thinking of the possibility that Gibson has really turned a corner. I was hopeful after seeing him in ST this year. I mean, if this is who he has become for real, who needs a trade?

 

But ...

 

I think I'll wait to see what he does through the end of the season. But I'll be keeping my fingers crossed. Tonight's game was one to put us all in a good mood.

[drjim]

I'm excited about thinking of the possibility that Gibson has really turned a corner. I was hopeful after seeing him in ST this year. I mean, if this is who he has become for real, who needs a trade?

 

But ...

 

I think I'll wait to see what he does through the end of the season. But I'll be keeping my fingers crossed. Tonight's game was one to put us all in a good mood.

I agree that it's not a done deal. Just offering a status check.

[Darius]

Gibson is not getting nearly enough credit for how he's the turned things around this year. He said been pretty good for a while now.

 

It was like Buxton's BA. It was so bad to begin with that it's hard to make the numbers look good again. Looking at the overall numbers for them gives you the impression that they've been bad to mediocre all year. In reality, Gibson and Buxton are two of the key guys who drug this team back from the dead. The guy should be praised right now, not reviled.

Edited September 3, 2017 by Darius

[Linus]

I would be curious to know if the mechanical changes he made in the spring are still being used. He looks the same to me although he has been healthy all year. Seems like he is just throwing more strikes.

[Jham]

Control is streaky. Feel comes and goes. Gee is dealing with that right now. This is why i was skeptical of duffey's initial success throwing half curves. Gibson's fastball runs so much he has to have good feel to locate it. And his slider alternately bounces, sails, and rolls off the table top. He is what he is. Frustratingly inconsistent. But streaky and sneaky good.

 

I would expect his feel to improve with experience and better emotional control. But I suspect his stuff will begin declining in the next few years too.

[Mr. Brooks]

I admit, I've been very down on Gibson for a couple years now, even after 2015 when others we're convinced he'd turned a corner then.

But, if he is the rare guy that finds something new at age 30, then obviously that's great for all involved.

And, I'll be happy to eat crow if he has figured it out.