Article: MIN 6, TOR 1: Buxton, Bartolo Get Twins Back to Winning Ways

[Tom Froemming]

Byron Buxton, wow.

 

Buck had three hits -- two of them on bunts -- drove in a pair of runs, stole a base and made what may have been his finest catch. He also made another great grab that brought a smile to Bartolo Colon’s face, as Big Sexy held the Blue Jays to one run over 6.2 innings.Win Expectancy (via Fangraphs)

Download attachment: WinEx825.png

Top 3 Twins per WPA: Colon .219 | Polanco .209 | Buxton .092

 

Buxton helped the Twins bust out of their slump by playing a little small ball. He dropped down a bunt single that scored Brian Dozier from third base to get the Twins on the board in the top of the third. They were looking like piranhas again, as the Twins got three bunt hits on the night and stole three bases.

 

Words can’t really do justice to Buxton’s run-saving catch to end the eighth inning. You’ve got to see it to believe it:

Colon did his whole make-pitching-look-ridiculously-easy thing again. He gave up nine hits and walked a batter over 6.2 innings, didn’t get a single strikeout, but the Blue Jays only managed one run. Toronto was aggressive early, but couldn’t manage much hard contact. Here’s a breakdown of all of Colon’s first pitches:

Download attachment: ColonFirstPitch.png

The Twins only totaled eight hits over their previous two games, so it was nice to see them bust out for 13 hits tonight. Along with Buxton, Joe Mauer and Jorge Polanco also had three hits a piece. In 22 games this month, Polanco has hits in 19 of them and has nine multi-hit games. He had eight total multi-hit games over the previous three months combined.

 

John Curtiss made his major league debut in the bottom of the ninth. He struck out the first batter he faced and tossed a perfect inning. Not a bad way to start your career. Per Baseball Savant, he topped out at 97.3 mph.

 

Postgame With Buxton

Twins W-L Record

Overall: 66-62

Last 10: 7-3

Last 20: 14-6

 

AL Central Standings

Cleveland 71-56

Minnesota 66-62 (-5.5)

Kansas City 64-63 (-7.0)

 

AL Wild Card Standings

WC1: Yankees 68-59 (+2.5)

WC2: Minnesota 66-62

Seattle 66-63 (-0.5)

Angels 65-64 (-1.5)

Kansas City 64-63 (-1.5)

 

Bullpen Usage

Here’s a quick look at the number of pitches thrown by the bullpen over the past five days:

Download attachment: Bullpen825.png

Looking Ahead

SAT: Twins (Dillon Gee) at Toronto (Marco Estrada), 12:07 pm CT

SUN: Twins (Kyle Gibson at Toronto (TBD), 12:07 pm CT

MON: OFF

 

Question of the Day

What do you think of this whole Player’s Weekend thing?

 

Last Three Recaps

CWS 5, MIN 1: Twins Drop Ugly Game, Series to White Sox

CWS 4, MIN 3: Twins Bullpen Blows Lead

MIN 4, CWS 1: Gibson Great, Twins Hit 3 More Homers

 

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[scottz]

I like the players weekend - in particular, I like the nicknames on the backs of the jerseys. It's fun to see names and hear/wonder about backstories for the less obvious ones.

[carlito_b]

Glad to see curtis up.. Of all the bullpen arms in the system he's the one I've been looking forward to most..

[Dantes929]

Nitpicking a bit but Curtis struck out the first batter he faced on 6 pitches.   He hung a slider that he was lucky wasn't hit out and threw two others that were fouled off and then struck him out with a really nasty slider.

Just throwing a little fuel on previous fires.   That was our number three batter that laid down two bunts with guys on base.   I loved it but wonder if there would be criticism if he had made outs doing it instead of being successful.    

Mauer looked sharp and well rested.  Did the day off help?

[Tom Froemming]

 

Nitpicking a bit but Curtis struck out the first batter he faced on 6 pitches.   He hung a slider that he was lucky wasn't hit out and threw two others that were fouled off and then struck him out with a really nasty slider.

Just throwing a little fuel on previous fires.   That was our number three batter that laid down two bunts with guys on base.   I loved it but wonder if there would be criticism if he had made outs doing it instead of being successful.    

Mauer looked sharp and well rested.  Did the day off help?

Thank you, updated. Kinda have too many balls up in the air while the game was finishing up. 

 

I hate bunting, so yeah, I wold have been especially upset if that first one with Dozier on third didn't work out. But I guess maybe I need to re-calibrate my bunting frustrations when it comes to the fastest man in baseball. 

[Doubles]

I like that the players personalities are encouraged to shine through. I don't always appreciate that part of the game, but I am taking the opportunity to do that this weekend.

 

I didn't like the jerseys / uniforms. They looked like something you would pull off the shelf at WalMart. Yuck.

[Dantes929]

 

Thank you, updated. Kinda have too many balls up in the air while the game was finishing up. 

 

I hate bunting, so yeah, I wold have been especially upset if that first one with Dozier on third didn't work out. But I guess maybe I need to re-calibrate my bunting frustrations when it comes to the fastest man in baseball. 

I am pretty luke warm when it comes to sacrifice bunting but I love bunting for hits.  I loved it when Carew did it.  I loved it when Puckett did it.  I loved it when Gomez used to do it.   I love it when Mauer would do it and the infield was back and yes, I especially love it with Buxton.   I enjoy it almost as much as his triples and I think it helped him climb out of his big early season funk.   He is 9 for 19 on bunt attempts.  That is 11% of his hits in 5% of his at bats.    

[Dantes929]

Big Sexy would have been a great name on the back of Colon.   Really wish it would have happened.

[AlwaysinModeration]

Byron Buxton sacrifice bunting is like a semi-bluff in poker. You have outs (um, bad word choice) either way.

[Old Twins Cap]

Buxton needs to develop into an XBH monster, so in theory, bunting is somewhat of a waste in his case.

 

But, what is clear and evident from watching: he has finally calmed down in the box to the point he can bunt successfully.

 

I'll take that steely calm from him all day long.   For years and years I'll take that.

[Blackjack]

So whats the difference if Buxton bunts and then steals second or if he hits a double?

 

If he bunts on a regular basis its going to make the infield play in, helping when he hits away.  I like it.

[amjgt]

Big Sexy would have been a great name on the back of Colon. Really wish it would have happened.

I suspect MLB wouldn't allow it

[Teddy]

 

I suspect MLB wouldn't allow it

 

Just like they didn't allow Berrios to wear La Machina.

[bighat]

 

So whats the difference if Buxton bunts and then steals second or if he hits a double?

 

More fantasy points if he bunts and the gets the SB.

 

In my opinion, that catch wasn't Buxton's "finest catch" but I'm not complaining!

 

Is Buxton the Twins' best player right now?

[USAFChief]

So whats the difference if Buxton bunts and then steals second or if he hits a double?

 

If he bunts on a regular basis its going to make the infield play in, helping when he hits away.  I like it.

Runners moved up, for one thing.

[Dantes929]

 

So whats the difference if Buxton bunts and then steals second or if he hits a double?

 

If he bunts on a regular basis its going to make the infield play in, helping when he hits away.  I like it.

Maybe I should have put it in caps.   Buxton is currently batting .243 with a .305 OBP.     When not bunting he is batting .229 with an OBP of .296.     When bunting HE IS 9 FOR 19!  Works out to an average and OBP of .474.     I know you can't just isolate this stat and project but if you could he should be bunting every single time he gets up.  Also as pointed out above he is getting better at it, he draws infielders in and he creates havoc when he gets on base.  

 I know some envision him as more of a Puckett (who also bunted a lot even in his good power years) but I am thinking more like Ricky Henderson who batted lead off, got on base a lot, stole a ton of bases and still managed  300 home runs.

[Dantes929]

 

Runners moved up, for one thing.

He had two bunt singles yesterday.  One moved Dozier to home and Mauer to third.  The second moved Mauer to second. 

Ok, extra base hits move them up more.   He currently is getting an extra base hit in 6% of his plate appearances.   

Edited August 26, 2017 by Dantes929

[spanman2]

Fantastic article.

[mazeville]

Oh for goodness sakes.

 

Bunting is a GREAT part of Byron Buxton's arsenal and they should be encouraging bunting as much as humanly possible. 

 

Check out this piece on the best bunters of all time. 

 

https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2012/12/10/3748738/best-bunter-all-time-career-bunt-hits-bases-empty-mlb

 

Do you know who is on this list? Mickey Mantle. From the article:

 

 

Even in Mantle's best season, when he hit for an other-worldly 1.164 OPS and a 202 wRC+, he still managed to lay down 11 bunt-hits with the bases empty. Can you imagine the sort of frustration that this would cause opposing pitchers? Here you are facing one of the greatest hitters to ever play the game, a shoe-in Hall of Famer, a perennial MVP candidate consistently threatening to hit 60 HR a season, and he's bunting on you?!!

 

Since July 1, Buxton has been a totally different hitter. He has improved steadily as the year has progressed, and right now he is the team's single best player (Yes, Sano included). 

 

Bunting enables Buxton to weather difficult stretches. But it adds a piece to his game that frustrates the hell out of other teams because they always have to be prepared for the possibility that he will bunt. The fact that he can do that, and hit a few pitches over the fence, makes him a potential superstar.

[Dantes929]

 

More fantasy points if he bunts and the gets the SB.

 

In my opinion, that catch wasn't Buxton's "finest catch" but I'm not complaining!

 

Is Buxton the Twins' best player right now?

Depends on the league.

He hasn't had his finest catch yet.    I wonder if he gets in batters minds.   Like "I don't even want to hit up the middle or the gaps.  What's the point?"

According to WAR he is for the season.   I was going to say Polanco is hard to beat the last two weeks but Buxton's OPS is better in that stretch also.

[Dantes929]

 

Oh for goodness sakes.

 

Bunting is a GREAT part of Byron Buxton's arsenal and they should be encouraging bunting as much as humanly possible. 

 

Check out this piece on the best bunters of all time. 

 

https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2012/12/10/3748738/best-bunter-all-time-career-bunt-hits-bases-empty-mlb

 

Do you know who is on this list? Mickey Mantle. From the article:

 

 

Since July 1, Buxton has been a totally different hitter. He has improved steadily as the year has progressed, and right now he is the team's single best player (Yes, Sano included). 

 

Bunting enables Buxton to weather difficult stretches. But it adds a piece to his game that frustrates the hell out of other teams because they always have to be prepared for the possibility that he will bunt. The fact that he can do that, and hit a few pitches over the fence, makes him a potential superstar.

Wow!  With those kinds of numbers maybe the pitchers were begging Mantle to bunt.   Of course it matters who bats behind you also.   With bases empty and no one out getting Mantle on 1st base with Elston Howard, Yogi Berra and Bill Skowron batting after probably meant good things were going to happen.  

[Tibs]

It would seem like Molitor is more comfortable with using Busenitz now.

[USAFChief]

To be clear, I have no problem with dropping a bunt for a hit on occasion. In fact, I think our LH hitters should do so more often against extreme shifts.

 

But while bunting for a hit has its place, and probably has secondary benefits by forcing infielders to play where they'd rather not, bunts are not automatic, they don't move runners more than one base, and they should be used sparingly.

[bluechipper]

I like the bunt for hits and speed aspect, so last night was a fun game. Very clean game overall.

[Seth Stohs]

Love this tweet from Trevor Hildenberger this morning! 

 

 

[Dantes929]

 

 
But while bunting for a hit has its place, and probably has secondary benefits by forcing infielders to play where they'd rather not, bunts are not automatic, they don't move runners more than one base, and they should be used sparingly.

I will disagree with qualifiers.   For starters hits and especially extra base hits are far less automatic so it is simply a matter of percentages and individual abilities.    At what point is the success rate of bunting better than the benefits of a lower success rate of swinging away?    If Buxton bats 600 times, bunts 100 times and gets a hit 45 of those times it is a great thing to do if he is a .250 hitter otherwise by swinging away with decent power.   If by bunting 150 times he gets 50 hits the incremental success rate of the next 50 is 10 percent and that means he is bunting too much.   Sparingly doesn't enter into it, IMO.    Best analogy I have got is basketball.   If you can shoot 50% from 2 point distance and 40% from 3 point distance then the 3 pointer is a better option.    If you can shoot 30% from 3 point distance then the 2 pointer is the better option.   Of course adjustments are made for the situation and what the defense gives you much like baseball but the team that maximizes the percentages over the course of a game and season has a better likelihood of winning.  Simply put if Buxton can bat .450 by bunting every at bat he should do it    Of course he can't but at what number can he maintain a .450 or even .400 average?  I don't have the answer but whatever it is that should be the number.

[ThejacKmp]

 

Buxton needs to develop into an XBH monster, so in theory, bunting is somewhat of a waste in his case.

 

But, what is clear and evident from watching: he has finally calmed down in the box to the point he can bunt successfully.

 

I'll take that steely calm from him all day long.   For years and years I'll take that.

 

And if he bunts enough, he's going to drag in those corner infielders and get some balls going through down the lines. Those are triples.

[ThejacKmp]

 

Depends on the league.

He hasn't had his finest catch yet.    I wonder if he gets in batters minds.   Like "I don't even want to hit up the middle or the gaps.  What's the point?"

According to WAR he is for the season.   I was going to say Polanco is hard to beat the last two weeks but Buxton's OPS is better in that stretch also.

 

Softball is not the same thing but I've played guys who were so good that you just don't hit it their way. That really messes with your approach at the plate. 

[Dantes929]

 

Softball is not the same thing but I've played guys who were so good that you just don't hit it their way. That really messes with your approach at the plate. 

I remember several years back against the Rays where it seemed like their outfield got a bunch of balls I didn't think they could get to and our outfielders were missing balls they should have caught.   It was literally the difference between sweeping the series and getting swept.    I don't think Buxton gets to one ball a game that other center fielders don't get to but it sure feels like it and it sure makes a difference in the team ERA.   I should add that Rosario vs Dyoung and Kepler vs Willingham makes a pretty big difference as well.

[Deduno Abides]

Anyone who can get on base almost 50% of the time by bunting should keep bunting. Buxton has also hit 5 HRs in August, so it seems that his bunting is not eliminating his power.

 

Speaking of power, how about that Polanco? Loses his consecutive game homer streak with a double off the wall. Molitor is really making a play for an extension through the mental and performance improvements by Polanco and Rosario.