Has the criticism of Kennys Vargas been fair?

[yarnivek1972]

Problem is, he can't hit 30 HRs for the Twins if he plays 3/4 of the season in Rochester, NY. The Twins let other players (Polanco, Buxton) struggle and battle through LONG LONG LOOONNGG slumps, because they think those players have potential. For some reason, the Twins don't think Kennys has potential and thus they send him down every time he whiffs on a slider.

 

Let's pretend the Twins don't have Grossman. Kennys plays 5 games per week all year long at DH and spells Mauer at 1B every once in a while. I think he hits 28-35 HR over the course of the year in that situation.

 

If the Twins eventually move on from Kennys, I think a team like San Diego picks him up, plays him every day at 1B and he hits 32 dongs.

 

I'd certainly rather roll the dice on Vargas playing every day and see what he can do. We know what Grossman gives us and I think we shouldn't feel sheepish about asking for more out of our DH.

With half his games in San Diego, plus another 9 in San Francisco.

 

90 games per year in 2 of the most difficult HR parks in MLB.

[old nurse]

 

.325 is a bad OBP. So again, when has DH ever been a high OBP position?

 

If you are determined to stick with OBP as a measure for good DHs, consider wOBA instead, which is Fangraph's weighted on base average.  Vargas was at .352 last year, which is well above average.

 

But forget about that.  DH is about SLG, ISO, wRC, wRC+, pick your poison.  

Vargas's ISO of .270 last year is literally off the chart. His SLG was .500.  wRC+ was at 120....

Cherrypick the year year out of the career

[biggentleben]

Warning - a bunch of scouting grades are about to commence:

 

I was going to write a piece on Vargas before he got called up, and I decided to scrap it as it was getting too negative. I watched a ton of his plate appearances the last few years at the major league and minor league level and came up with this evaluation:

 

20-45 grade breaking ball (below average): Vargas has good zone and pitch recognition on these and can lay off them, though he doesn't frequently drive them well when he does swing. This level of pitch typically includes breaking pitches that frequently don't find the strike zone, don't have great break, and/or don't have sufficient velocity to be major league viable.

 

45-55 grade breaking ball (around average MLB): Vargas has good pitch and zone recognition on looping curves in this grade level and can lay off of them as needed. He does not drive them well when he swings, however. Spike curves in this range will almost always draw a swing, and Vargas is willing to expand the zone for them, but when he does make contact (which is not a great rate), he crushes them. Sliders at this level come in two varieties - good velo sliders without location and good location/break sliders without great velocity. Vargas has a much better pitch recognition of the latter than the former, but he gets much better results when he actually makes contact with the former (due to the higher velo), so he often swings.

 

60+ breaking ball (plus or better): Really the one pitch at this level that he handles well is a spike curve, but even then, he misses plenty on them. Excellent looping curve simply make Vargas look silly, though they can do that with near anyone. He loves to attempt to golf sweeping sliders from lefties, but I believe I saw one home run in probably 30-ish swings on a plus sweeping slider from a lefty.

 

45-55 fastball (average): Less than a 45 fastball rarely is something you see in the major leagues or even in the upper minors as guys typically have the location or movement to get a notch up enough to get the 45 number. This is where Vargas absolutely feasts. He recognizes pitches well at this level, drives them well, basically everything you want a power hitter to do well with a fastball, he does at this level of a fastball.

 

60-65 fastball (plus): This is where things start to get hairy for Vargas with fastballs. Typically, plus velocity is someone who can touch 97ish from the right side and 95 from the left side. A pure, straight pitch at those velocities, he can still tag, but it's that most pitches that get this level of grade have a bit of wiggle and usually the pitcher to get a grade at this level has good location of the pitch. That is where Vargas struggles. Typically it's not with swing and miss so much as getting less than ideal bat placement on the ball.

 

70+ fastball (plus-plus): Now and then, Vargas will get things going early and get everything in the right spots at the right time to nail a double-plus fastball, but it's rare. I did not see a ball perfectly hit that was in triple digits, but he did knock one out at that velocity (force plus force can still help him) in my viewings. However, if that fastball has more than just 99+ from the right side/97+ from the left side, as in, if it has any movement to it at all, Vargas is SOL'd. This is where he typically gets most of his fastball swing and miss that I saw.

 

Offspeed pitches were near in line with breaking pitches, so I didn't really specifically note them.

 

All in all, Vargas would likely feast once every 7-10 days on a fringy 5th starter type, scatter a few solid hits otherwise throughout the week when he happened to square well, and be a guy who was a fringy power bat with no defensive position (and I did watch a few games at first base - some of the worst first base defense I've seen. I had to go watch a few games of Jonathan Rodriguez to make myself feel better about minor league first base play in the org).

[yarnivek1972]

Warning - a bunch of scouting grades are about to commence:

 

I was going to write a piece on Vargas before he got called up, and I decided to scrap it as it was getting too negative. I watched a ton of his plate appearances the last few years at the major league and minor league level and came up with this evaluation:

 

20-45 grade breaking ball (below average): Vargas has good zone and pitch recognition on these and can lay off them, though he doesn't frequently drive them well when he does swing. This level of pitch typically includes breaking pitches that frequently don't find the strike zone, don't have great break, and/or don't have sufficient velocity to be major league viable.

 

45-55 grade breaking ball (around average MLB): Vargas has good pitch and zone recognition on looping curves in this grade level and can lay off of them as needed. He does not drive them well when he swings, however. Spike curves in this range will almost always draw a swing, and Vargas is willing to expand the zone for them, but when he does make contact (which is not a great rate), he crushes them. Sliders at this level come in two varieties - good velo sliders without location and good location/break sliders without great velocity. Vargas has a much better pitch recognition of the latter than the former, but he gets much better results when he actually makes contact with the former (due to the higher velo), so he often swings.

 

60+ breaking ball (plus or better): Really the one pitch at this level that he handles well is a spike curve, but even then, he misses plenty on them. Excellent looping curve simply make Vargas look silly, though they can do that with near anyone. He loves to attempt to golf sweeping sliders from lefties, but I believe I saw one home run in probably 30-ish swings on a plus sweeping slider from a lefty.

 

45-55 fastball (average): Less than a 45 fastball rarely is something you see in the major leagues or even in the upper minors as guys typically have the location or movement to get a notch up enough to get the 45 number. This is where Vargas absolutely feasts. He recognizes pitches well at this level, drives them well, basically everything you want a power hitter to do well with a fastball, he does at this level of a fastball.

 

60-65 fastball (plus): This is where things start to get hairy for Vargas with fastballs. Typically, plus velocity is someone who can touch 97ish from the right side and 95 from the left side. A pure, straight pitch at those velocities, he can still tag, but it's that most pitches that get this level of grade have a bit of wiggle and usually the pitcher to get a grade at this level has good location of the pitch. That is where Vargas struggles. Typically it's not with swing and miss so much as getting less than ideal bat placement on the ball.

 

70+ fastball (plus-plus): Now and then, Vargas will get things going early and get everything in the right spots at the right time to nail a double-plus fastball, but it's rare. I did not see a ball perfectly hit that was in triple digits, but he did knock one out at that velocity (force plus force can still help him) in my viewings. However, if that fastball has more than just 99+ from the right side/97+ from the left side, as in, if it has any movement to it at all, Vargas is SOL'd. This is where he typically gets most of his fastball swing and miss that I saw.

 

Offspeed pitches were near in line with breaking pitches, so I didn't really specifically note them.

 

All in all, Vargas would likely feast once every 7-10 days on a fringy 5th starter type, scatter a few solid hits otherwise throughout the week when he happened to square well, and be a guy who was a fringy power bat with no defensive position (and I did watch a few games at first base - some of the worst first base defense I've seen. I had to go watch a few games of Jonathan Rodriguez to make myself feel better about minor league first base play in the org).

So, sorta reading between the lines, I interpret this to mean he's a slightly less than average power hitter. Sounds like an accurate assessment of his MLB career to date.

[biggentleben]

 

So, sorta reading between the lines, I interpret this to mean he's a slightly less than average power hitter. Sounds like an accurate assessment of his MLB career to date.

 

Kind of depends on what you believe a power hitter needs to be. Vargas isn't a guy who struggles blindly against anything of any quality that moves and crushes any fastball of any quality. That's what a lot of image of a power guy seems to be - the idea that when you see Aroldis Chapman come on the mound, you want your big, burly power hitter to stare him down is a prevalent one still around the game.

 

It all depends on how you can work your way through the league. Vargas in the early 2000s would have been tremendous. The pitching quality at that time was so much lower at the back ends of rotations, and it would have fit him better to excel at that time. I truly think teams have better pitchers in their 4/5 slots of their rotations throughout the league now than 15 years ago, and that will keep Vargas from likely ever being a guy who can be a league-average hitter, but he will provide exciting moments when he does hit the ball because he has legit power in that swing that is impressive when it's all unleashed.

 

So yes, it's not off in what he's produced so far, but it's how he gets there that is different for a guy of his power and stature than what you'd typically expect.

[Platoon]

I have to agree with Brian. Also a fan of Vargas and believer. Also think he got jerked around in 2016 and wasn't afforded the right opportunity, especially when he was playing well and producing.

The potential is still there. But is it too late now? I'm sure riding the shuttle has to be frustrating for him. But there is just no consistency, this year at least, at either level to truly indicate what's he's capable of or how great of a chance he has "earned".

That being said, boy would I love to see him take off the next 6 weeks.

This, and also This to Brian's. When you get sent down after his July last year, there is no reason not to think how little your performance matters. And in Vargas case I think that is very likely. He has Mauer blocking him, nothing Mauer or Vargas does will change that. Nothing. He has options, and admittedly limited field flexibility. Easy pickings. This year he was a victim of RG playing out of his, well you know, for several months. Grossmans offensive surge proved to be a fluke. As for defense? RG in RF with that arm? Or Vargas at 1B? At best a toss up.

[kab21]

 

Problem is, he can't hit 30 HRs for the Twins if he plays 3/4 of the season in Rochester, NY. The Twins let other players (Polanco, Buxton) struggle and battle through LONG LONG LOOONNGG slumps, because they think those players have potential. For some reason, the Twins don't think Kennys has potential and thus they send him down every time he whiffs on a slider. 

It is kind of difficult to claim that he can hit 30 HR/season if he can't do that at any AA/AAA/MLB level.

 

He has 61 HR's in the last 3 seasons split between AA/AAA/MLB. That is 380 games. This is the issue with claiming that he is a 30 HR in the majors.

 

I have always liked Vargas and I still think he could be a prototypical slugger DH that the Twins always lacked in the 2000's but he is using up his chances by not destroying the ball when sent to the minors. It would be one thing if he had alright-ish MLB numbers (.740 career OPS) but had a .900+ MiLB OPS with 30 HR pace when sent down but he has alright numbers when sent down and his K struggles follow him down.

[DocBauer]

Unfortunately, Vargas has been a victim of having an option year this season when the FO/Molitor have been so aggressive with the flux for the pitching staff. Not complaining of the moves, I've actually applauded being aggressive and using the entire roster, but the end result is Vargas riding the shuttle more than most.

 

It still doesn't take away his inconsistencies at both levels. You'd just think he would mash more at Rochester wouldn't you? I actually think Vargas is OK at 1B. I actually doubt he's a 30HR guy despite his size. But a legit 25HR with 500 AB? Yeah, I think he could do that with regular playing time with an OK BE and low .300 OB.

 

Push is coming to shove on Vargas, however. And I have to agree with an earlier assessment made that the DH doesn't necessarily have to ONE GUY who fills that role. When TK managed, there were times when there was a set DH. But there were a lot of years when guys like Bush and Larkin, amongst others, rotated through DH and the field. With this OF and it's potential, Sano, Polanco and Escobar solid, Dozier, (ignoring he could be gone after 2018), the argument I've made is a 1B to play with Mauer and DH, something we hoped Vargas could be. You can also give guys half days off. I'd really like to come up with a position player and not just a bat only guy.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Did I miss something, why Vargas wasn't starting tonight, with Mauer sitting vs a LHP and Sano and Grossman both injured?

[twinsnorth49]

Vargas is another Chris Parmelee, with slightly more power and worse AAA numbers.