Article: Feeling The Draft: Analyzing Minnesota's Stellar Early Returns

[Steve Lein]

The advancement of recent draftees is what I wanted to see out of the new front office compared to the old. Get them where they should be based on talent and the experience they brought to the table.

 

But I'm also surprised they haven't then applied these principles to the players that were already in the organization from an overall overview perspective.

 

No Romero in AAA, Gonsalves just moved there, Gordon not in AAA, Garver not in majors, etc... those types of things.

 

I wonder if they have a really low opinion of the talent that was in the organization when they got here.

[Mike Sixel]

 

For what it's worth, Kyle Schwarber and Kris Bryant both made it to the Florida State League a couple months after the draft. They had a .950 and 1.100 OPS respectively. For better or worse, that is the benchmark that I'm using to judge whether or not Rooker is on track to be a fast-moving, impact MLB bat.

 

Setting the bar at one of the perennial MVP candidate's levels seems like an awfully high bar to have to clear.....

 

I agree, though, we don't know much about Rooker yet. I'm ok with that, given that he's been a professional baseball player for 10 weeks or so......

[howieramone2]

 

The advancement of recent draftees is what I wanted to see out of the new front office compared to the old. Get them where they should be based on talent and the experience they brought to the table.

 

But I'm also surprised they haven't then applied these principles to the players that were already in the organization from an overall overview perspective.

 

No Romero in AAA, Gonsalves just moved there, Gordon not in AAA, Garver not in majors, etc... those types of things.

 

I wonder if they have a really low opinion of the talent that was in the organization when they got here.

Sano was not a done deal at 3B going into ST. Polanco was not a done deal at SS going into ST. Buxton was not a done deal at CF going into ST and I was fairly certain after 30-45 days in, he was headed to Rochester. Berrios started at Rochester. I would guess the new regime couldn't possibly be happier with the talent TR accumulated. 

 

Let's not forget, we were the 2nd youngest team in baseball, weighted by playing time. Also, I would be surprised if at least one of the national experts, doesn't rate our farm system in the top 10.

Edited August 17, 2017 by howieramone2

[Nick Nelson]

 

But I would bet more on Rooker than Diaz at this point. Diaz brings little but a low k rate. At least Rooker shows some pop and will take a walk.

I don't think anyone can reasonably deny that Rooker has already moved ahead of Diaz in the pipeline. Not really debatable.

 

It's fine that people want to be cautious in drawing conclusions from these small initial samples, but let's stop with the ridiculous minimizing statements. Barnes' peripherals (9.1 K/9, 3.6 BB/9, 1.18 WHIP, 54% GB) are "awful"? What?? No, not by any stretch, regardless of context. Rooker's .802 OPS (which includes a 1.015 OPS in August) in his first taste of High-A "isn't good"? Come on.

 

These guys are hitting the ground running, almost without exception. It's rare you see that so consistently through the top end of any draft class, especially with the Twins the past few years. That's the only point here, no need to bend over backwards to spew negativity on a harmless set of observations.

[markos]

 

Setting the bar at one of the perennial MVP candidate's levels seems like an awfully high bar to have to clear.....

 

I agree, though, we don't know much about Rooker yet. I'm ok with that, given that he's been a professional baseball player for 10 weeks or so......

Sure, that might be unfair. But I'm talking specifically about what I want to see in this relatively small sample that would force me to adjust my priors with Booker. I don't think it is crazy to say that if he ends up with a 1.100 OPS, I will be very excited and I'll adjust my expectations a fair amount. And if he ends up with a .950 OPS, I will be cautiously optimistic and adjust my expectations a little. And if he stays around his current .800-.850, well, meh. That won't really move the needle for me one way or the other relative to my expectations coming out of the draft.

[Taildragger8791]

 

For the folks who want to move Sano off of third I would remind you that he lost about two years of development time to TJ and the misguided outfield experiment. I'm not saying that he is the long term answer at third but I still think he could be. I'm certainly happy to let him develop there until someone forces the issue through their play. In the meantime let him spell Mauer at first to get some reps there as well. Remember, having options across the field isn't a bad thing…now let's hope the front office/manager make the choices that create the best on field product!

 

I'm not hearing any credible assertions that Sano is bad at 3rd at this point, I think most people recognize that he's been surprisingly good at most aspects of the position. What I'm hearing is that some don't believe he'll age gracefully and could eat himself off the hot corner within a few years unless he refocuses his diet and training regime to stay there. His athletcism will wane quicker than a normal 20-something year old, resulting declining defensive value and increasing injury risk. It's just what happens to big guys like that. Thankfully he has the bat to play anywhere and he'd likely still handle 1B for a long time, assuming he can pick it. I'm sure the Twins realize this already.

[gunnarthor]

 

For what it's worth, Kyle Schwarber and Kris Bryant both made it to the Florida State League a couple months after the draft. They had a .950 and 1.100 OPS respectively. For better or worse, that is the benchmark that I'm using to judge whether or not Rooker is on track to be a fast-moving, impact MLB bat.

Bryant was a legit top 3 pick. Schwarber was a top 10ish pick. Rooker was not that type of draft prospect. Look at what other recent college hitters taken around the same pick are doing.

[Danchat]

I'm know I'm changing the subject here, but I just saw Kohl Stewart got promoted to AAA. His stats at AA look pretty bad, so has he been pitching better as of late? 5.1 BB/9 is not what you want to see of a guy at AA...

[Mike Sixel]

 

I'm know I'm changing the subject here, but I just saw Kohl Stewart got promoted to AAA. His stats at AA look pretty bad, so has he been pitching better as of late? 5.1 BB/9 is not what you want to see of a guy at AA...

 

There is a real skill in inducing weak contact. Perhaps that is his skill. We'll find out more in teh next year or two.

[drivlikejehu]

 

It's fine that people want to be cautious in drawing conclusions from these small initial samples, but let's stop with the ridiculous minimizing statements. Barnes' peripherals (9.1 K/9, 3.6 BB/9, 1.18 WHIP, 54% GB) are "awful"? What?? No, not by any stretch, regardless of context. Rooker's .802 OPS (which includes a 1.015 OPS in August) in his first taste of High-A "isn't good"? Come on.

 

These guys are hitting the ground running, almost without exception. It's rare you see that so consistently through the top end of any draft class, especially with the Twins the past few years. That's the only point here, no need to bend over backwards to spew negativity on a harmless set of observations.

 

Barnes had an xFIP of 4.23 in E-town as an experienced, major conference starting pitcher. That's pretty bad. If you look historically at how mid-round college pitchers have done for that club, usually they cut through opposing lineups with little to no resistance.

 

I didn't say it actually mattered, just that if you want to look at tiny sample sizes, at least represent them accurately. 

 

Rooker is certainly ahead of Diaz, but Rooker's strikeout rate is a definite red flag, particularly since it stabilizes more quickly than some other stats do. I don't think its enough data to be meaningful, but again, if you want to roll with tiny sample sizes, it's an issue.

Edited August 17, 2017 by drivlikejehu

[Steve Lein]

 

Sano was not a done deal at 3B going into ST. Polanco was not a done deal at SS going into ST. Buxton was not a done deal at CF going into ST and I was fairly certain after 30-45 days in, he was headed to Rochester. Berrios started at Rochester. I would guess the new regime couldn't possibly be happier with the talent TR accumulated. 

 

Let's not forget, we were the 2nd youngest team in baseball, weighted by playing time. Also, I would be surprised if at least one of the national experts, doesn't rate our farm system in the top 10.

 

I wasn't referring to anyone on the Major League team already.

 

Talking about the talent in the minors.

[Steve Lein]

 

I'm know I'm changing the subject here, but I just saw Kohl Stewart got promoted to AAA. His stats at AA look pretty bad, so has he been pitching better as of late? 5.1 BB/9 is not what you want to see of a guy at AA...

 

Nice. I'm still a Stewart fan. 

 

One thing he does have is the "stuff"...

[TRex]

 

Nice. I'm still a Stewart fan. 

 

One thing he does have is the "stuff"...

Me too!

 

I think all he needs is a zig-zaggedy haircut and some drive to prove the nay-sayers wrong.

 

Maybe he could get some high black socks and call himself 'Dr. Death'... or was that one already taken too?

 

Or maybe he needs to lighten up (Francis), and start someone's shoelaces on fire!

 

Any other good ideas/personas for him?

Edited August 17, 2017 by TRex

[Steve Lein]

 

I'm know I'm changing the subject here, but I just saw Kohl Stewart got promoted to AAA. His stats at AA look pretty bad, so has he been pitching better as of late? 5.1 BB/9 is not what you want to see of a guy at AA...

 

Last 10 starts (which is basically since he came off the DL): 5-2, 3.29 ERA, 54.2 IP, 49 H's, 20 ER's, 22 BB, 41 K's.

 

Take out 2 of his last 3 games and his ERA is 2.06. He's definitely been better. I think we all still want to see more, but there is something there.

[Squirrel]

I wasn't referring to anyone on the Major League team already.

 

Talking about the talent in the minors.

I'm using this post to step in here with a moderator note. Please start another thread, in the ML forum, if you want to have this discussion about Sano. This is not the thread for it. Please keep on topic.

[Taildragger8791]

 

Last 10 starts (which is basically since he came off the DL): 5-2, 3.29 ERA, 54.2 IP, 49 H's, 20 ER's, 22 BB, 41 K's.

 

Take out 2 of his last 3 games and his ERA is 2.06. He's definitely been better. I think we all still want to see more, but there is something there.

 

The BBs are still pretty high, and the overall WHIP is just okay but not that good for a AA prospect. I'm fine with pushing him since the story on him is always that he has "stuff", so maybe a little challenge will help him put it together.

 

I'm not a fan of just popping off random games from within a sample size like that though. It's one thing if there's some other factor involved like it's the first couple games after a promotion/injury, a guy was playing hurt, weather, etc. Otherwise, those games happened. Consistency is a skill too.

[Steve Lein]

 

The BBs are still pretty high, and the overall WHIP is just okay but not that good for a AA prospect. I'm fine with pushing him since the story on him is always that he has "stuff", so maybe a little challenge will help him put it together.

 

I'm not a fan of just popping off random games from within a sample size like that though. It's one thing if there's some other factor involved like it's the first couple games after a promotion/injury, a guy was playing hurt, weather, etc. Otherwise, those games happened. Consistency is a skill too.

 

That's why I included it in the first paragraph.

 

If you wan't to think about it that way, then you also can't ignore what happened in the other 7 games in that stretch, though.

 

Yes, more walks than we'd like, but also 3 or fewer runs in every one of those game, and only 3 once.

 

If you're thinking of it like "he was bad in two of his last three so he shouldn't be promoted," that's like saying Royce Lewis shouldn't have been promoted to CR because he was only hitting .190 in his last 12 games in the Gulf Coast League... (which is a true statement).

 

(I don't think you're thinking of it that way, but Stewart was pretty consistent in that stretch if you ask me)

Edited August 18, 2017 by Steve Lein

[Nick Nelson]

 

Barnes had an xFIP of 4.23 in E-town as an experienced, major conference starting pitcher. That's pretty bad. If you look historically at how mid-round college pitchers have done for that club, usually they cut through opposing lineups with little to no resistance.

 

I didn't say it actually mattered, just that if you want to look at tiny sample sizes, at least represent them accurately. 

He did "cut through opposing lineups with little to no resistance." He allowed three earned runs, 14 hits and 1 HR in 23 innings with 23 K. Then he moved up to Class-A, which plenty of 4th-round picks fail to do in their first year.

 

You're striking an odd balance by saying "this sample is meaningless, but I'm going to apply advanced predictive stats and act like they're the only way to evaluate it"

[drivlikejehu]

 

He did "cut through opposing lineups with little to no resistance." He allowed three earned runs, 14 hits and 1 HR in 23 innings with 23 K. Then he moved up to Class-A, which plenty of 4th-round picks fail to do in their first year.

 

You're striking an odd balance by saying "this sample is meaningless, but I'm going to apply advanced predictive stats and act like they're the only way to evaluate it"

 

It's an indisputable fact that a defense- and HR-independent metric like xFIP is superior for measuring pitching performance in small samples. xFIP isn't "predictive," it regresses BABIP and HR/FB to remove the distorting effects of small sample sizes. 

 

In 2016, Barnes' peripherals would have been among the worst in E-towns rotation. In 2015, he would have been 13th out of 15 on the entire pitching staff (min 20 innings). The reality is that the Twins send a lot of college guys to the Appy League and they usually do a lot better than Barnes did.

 

Because the sample size is small, it doesn't really change anything, particularly since Barnes isn't a serious prospect to begin with. His numbers would be great for MLB, but for an experienced pitcher in that league, they were not impressive.

[gunnarthor]

Even Keith Law has said he wouldn't use FIP for minor leaguers. 

[drivlikejehu]

 

Even Keith Law has said he wouldn't use FIP for minor leaguers. 

 

He wouldn't use ERA either, so that really has no bearing on those of us that aren't pro scouts.

[drock2190]

Anyone see that Kyle Cody is doing quite well for himself?

 

Not sure what draft year but the Twins failed to sign him. He should factor into this discussion.

[howieramone2]

 

Anyone see that Kyle Cody is doing quite well for himself?

 

Not sure what draft year but the Twins failed to sign him. He should factor into this discussion.

I'll factor it in. His after draft physical showed he was injured so they offered less money. If I'm not mistaken they got that pick back the next draft. We drafted Gibson knowing he was injured and that worked out okay. I'm not positive, but I believe Bard was drafted injured also. 

[Taildragger8791]

Brent Rooker at Ft Myers is now sitting at .289/.376/.589 for a .967 OPS and climbing. Scratch off the first 3 games there, call that an adjustment period, and he's stroking .314/.395/.640 for a 1.035 OPS. The strikeouts are still too frequent but the walk rate is reasonable. At the very least they've got something interesting with him.

[AlwaysinModeration]

Correct, high A in Rooker' s case. But, I'll have to agree to disagree with anyone saying he's doing stellar there.

An. 805 OPS from a 22 year old, bat only college draft pick isn't good, IMO.

For what it's like worth, Kyle Schwarber and Kris Bryant both made it to the Florida State League a couple months after the draft. They had a .950 and 1.100 OPS respectively. For better or worse, that is the benchmark that I'm using to judge whether or not Rooker is on track to be a fast-moving, impact MLB bat.

Ten days on, can we now agree (yes, SSS) that Rooker is doing stellar at high A, what with his Schwarber-like numbers there? Edited August 26, 2017 by AlwaysinModeration

[Mr. Brooks]

Ten days on, can we now agree (yes, SSS) that Rooker is doing stellar at high A, what with his Schwarber-like numbers there?

Sure,.967 is much better than .805.

[AlwaysinModeration]

Sometimes I wonder whether the multi-year process of minor leagues is really necessary. It's in the major league club's interest to have a player debut in the majors by 24-25, so they get all of the prime years relatively inexpensively. And players clearly improve as they move up the ranks.

 

But for a player like Rooker, it does make me at least a bit curious to wonder what he would do if he were inserted into the DH position of the Twins line-up. I'm sure he'd strike out a bunch. But isn't it possible he would go all Aaron Judge for 100 at bats in September?

[drjim]

Sometimes I wonder whether the multi-year process of minor leagues is really necessary. It's in the major league club's interest to have a player debut in the majors by 24-25, so they get all of the prime years relatively inexpensively. And players clearly improve as they move up the ranks.

 

But for a player like Rooker, it does make me at least a bit curious to wonder what he would do if he were inserted into the DH position of the Twins line-up. I'm sure he'd strike out a bunch. But isn't it possible he would go all Aaron Judge for 100 at bats in September?

Extremely unlikely he would do that. Even Judge didn't do that his first month. Major league pitchers are really, really good.

 

A big part of the minors is for reps and progression and learning how to make adjustments, but a not insignificant part is learning the grind of playing every day, long road trips and using wood bats. Someone like Rooker might have brief initial success, but he would likely wear down and get exploited when pitchers adjust.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Sometimes I wonder whether the multi-year process of minor leagues is really necessary. It's in the major league club's interest to have a player debut in the majors by 24-25, so they get all of the prime years relatively inexpensively. And players clearly improve as they move up the ranks.

But for a player like Rooker, it does make me at least a bit curious to wonder what he would do if he were inserted into the DH position of the Twins line-up. I'm sure he'd strike out a bunch. But isn't it possible he would go all Aaron Judge for 100 at bats in September?

 

I doubt this as well. Major league contracts have really only exploded in the last 10-15 years or so too. Minor league facilities costs likely grow at a much more stable rate. If it was simply an ROI think, there would be a lot less minor leagues. Given how many examples we see if people failing at various levels, I don't think it's quite that simple as putting a guy on the 25 man and letting him struggle.