Article: Feeling The Draft: Analyzing Minnesota's Stellar Early Returns

[drivlikejehu]

 

That's not completely true. They have predictive value for players who do well and are younger than the league average. The prep players doing well in the rookie leagues should be very encouraging, given that the league average age is around 20.

 

I said 'GCL stats have almost no predictive value' which absolutely is true. They have a very, very tiny amount, but it's irrelevant for all intents and purposes and the season isn't even over. 

 

More to the point, nothing has happened statistically that changes any assessments made at the time of the draft. Sure, Lewis did pretty well in the GCL, but he was the first overall pick. He already had a high projection. 

 

The overall gist of the OP was misleading because it praises the draft on the basis of information that has almost no predictive value. If people want to be excited about certain things, more power to them, but it's far too early for even preliminary draft follow-up assessments.

[Old Twins Cap]

 

No. No no no.

 

The best strategy is to keep him at third and let him develop there. He is still young. He has had only one real season playing at third. His bat is much more valuable at third than it is at first. There is zero -- ZERO -- reasons to move him off of that position.

 

I can think of 275 reasons to move him off third base.

 

Hey look, he pulls a muscle on a play like he made last night, he's out for a month.

 

Go find me another 275 lb third sacker, ever, in the history of MLB. 

 

Long run, you protect a guy that drives in runs by playing him at a position he can make plays and not get hurt.

 

Hopefully he can pick it at 1B, but that's his future.  100% guarantee on that.

[KirbyDaisy]

 

Royce Lewis. 3rd base. You can all say he is the best athlete on the field. But who is he going to replace?

If he's good enough he can replace anyone.

 

[jokin]

 

On Rooker:

 

His presence looms large since the Twins have an upcoming vacancy at first base, and had no particularly attractive long-term solution before Rooker joined the organization.

 

Um, Miguel Sano, dollars to donuts, is a 1B for 29 teams in MLB.  He is 6'4", 275 lbs and likes to snack.

 

Twins best start looking for third sacker, preferably one that doesn't strike out so much.

Uhh, you aren't watching many Twins games, are you? Sano has been excellent at 3B, even with his post-All Star struggles at the plate.

Sure, he will end up at 1B eventually. But he's been, and will continue to be, an asset at 3B for the next few years.

[91TwinsFan]

I'd argue it's a loss for us to forfeit Sano's arm by having him play 1b.  This isn't little league where everyone on the team bats right handed and the first baseman literally only makes plays on balls thrown to him from the left side of the infield.  Players at first have to make many of the same plays, as far as range goes on ground balls, as they do at third and more (holding runners, erasing bad throws from other infielders, more complicated footwork).  By moving him across the diamond you take away his biggest asset on defense, his arm.  I can live with the DH argument, but the 1B doesn't make sense to me in the near future.

[mazeville]

 

I can think of 275 reasons to move him off third base.

 

Hey look, he pulls a muscle on a play like he made last night, he's out for a month.

 

Go find me another 275 lb third sacker, ever, in the history of MLB. 

 

Long run, you protect a guy that drives in runs by playing him at a position he can make plays and not get hurt.

 

Hopefully he can pick it at 1B, but that's his future.  100% guarantee on that.

 

Nope. 

 

Aaron Judge weighs 280-plus and he plays RIGHT FIELD. 

 

Sano is doing fine at third. He will continue to do fine at third and, I imagine, he'll get better at it. It's not as if he's running up and down a basketball court and leaping for rebounds. It's not as if he's manning center field and running into walls. Dude plays third base. 

 

[ThejacKmp]

 

Fixed it for you.

 

Yeah? Who are the cheap DHs who were signed the last two years? Back it up before you "fix" my post.

 

Sano is likely better than any of the sad sacks . If the Twins aren't going to have Miguel Sano play 3B (and again, I think he should be at 3B for the next 3-5 years), there's no reason to put him at 1B where he isn't particularly adept. He can DH at that point. The Twins don't have anyone coming up with no position.

[Geneb]

It's great the guys are doing well but it should be tempered with caution. In Rooker's case a good college hitter should hit rookie-low a pitching. Anybody with a plus-curve will have success in rookie-low a ball. As both pitchers and hitters get used to wooden bats which requires pitching inside. Those who can throw curves for strikes have a significant advantage. In low a ball pitchers are wild and the defense doesn't always catch the ball. Consequently individual stats are mostly meaningless as a predictor of Major League success.

[Squirrel]

It's great the guys are doing well but it should be tempered with caution. In Rooker's case a good college hitter should hit rookie-low a pitching. Anybody with a plus-curve will have success in rookie-low a ball. As both pitchers and hitters get used to wooden bats which requires pitching inside. Those who can throw curves for strikes have a significant advantage. In low a ball pitchers are wild and the defense doesn't always catch the ball. Consequently individual stats are mostly meaningless as a predictor of Major League success.

Rooker is in high-A, though.

[Taildragger8791]

 

Lewin Diaz would beg to disagree with this.  I would suspect that the Twins see Rooker more like an OF (and his usage shows this) than a 1B, which is ok, because there is not a glut of OF power in the organiziation as well.  Good problem to have, but it is not like there were not other first basemen in the organization.  Vargas should probably added to that list.

 

Lewin Diaz has a long ways to go before pencilling him in at 1B for the Twins. He's still all projection and hasn't really shown he'll fulfill that yet. The batting average and strikeout rate are okay, but he isn't taking walks or hitting for much power. He's not "flashing" yet like you'd expect for a future power hitter. I'm not concerned, but I'm not reserving any spots ahead of him in the pipeline either.

[Mr. Brooks]

Rooker is in high-A, though.

Correct, high A in Rooker' s case. But, I'll have to agree to disagree with anyone saying he's doing stellar there.

An. 805 OPS from a 22 year old, bat only college draft pick isn't good, IMO.

[Mr. Brooks]

Lewin Diaz has a long ways to go before pencilling him in at 1B for the Twins. He's still all projection and hasn't really shown he'll fulfill that yet. The batting average and strikeout rate are okay, but he isn't taking walks or hitting for much power. He's not "flashing" yet like you'd expect for a future power hitter. I'm not concerned, but I'm not reserving any spots ahead of him in the pipeline either.

And Rooker has? Because that's what Thrylos was responding to.

[Taildragger8791]

 

And Rooker has? Because that's what Thrylos was responding to.

 

For his first taste of professional baseball and wooden bats, yeah. He's flashed legit power and the ability to draw walks. The strikeout rate is high but not unreasonably so (yet). I'd like to see more doubles and consistency but he literally just left metal bats and college dorms behind 2 months ago.

 

The sample size is so small too. Take out his first few games at A ball, call it an adjustment period. Since then he's hitting .265/.365/.518 (.883 OPS) with only a .314 BABIP. He's proven to make adjustments quickly. No, I'm not saving a spot for him in MLB yet or declaring him a can't-miss prospect. But he's definitley showing an ability to progress up the system quickly.

[IndianaTwin]

I'd like to see Sano at 3B as long as possible, but whether he stays or moves from 3B really comes down to the alternatives.

• If the available 1B is the second coming of a pre-concussion Morneau and the best 3B option is Nick Punto (and remember that Punto turns 40 this fall), it makes sense to leave Sano at 3B.
• If there's a new Gary Gaetti at 3B and Craig Kusick Jr. is the 1B option, you move Sano.

We can't predict either with precision for 2019, let alone 3-5 years or more from now. Either way, as my momma used to say, we'll cross that bridge when we get to it. 

[Mr. Brooks]

For his first taste of professional baseball and wooden bats, yeah. He's flashed legit power and the ability to draw walks. The strikeout rate is high but not unreasonably so (yet). I'd like to see more doubles and consistency but he literally just left metal bats and college dorms behind 2 months ago.

 

The sample size is so small too. Take out his first few games at A ball, call it an adjustment period. Since then he's hitting .265/.365/.518 (.883 OPS) with only a .314 BABIP. He's proven to make adjustments quickly. No, I'm not saving a spot for him in MLB yet or declaring him a can't-miss prospect. But he's definitley showing an ability to progress up the system quickly.

We'll have to agree to disagree.

Rooker hasn't shown enough yet to be called the long term answer at first base, not even close.

[Taildragger8791]

 

We'll have to agree to disagree.
Rooker hasn't shown enough yet to be called the long term answer at first base, not even close.

 

I didn't say he had. I said he's flashed a powerful bat and the potential to be advanced quickly. Nothing remarkable, yet no real red flags yet either. He's basically meeting expectations. That isn't enough to make a strong assessment one or or the other, which is fine because he's only two months into his career. I don't think we'll know what he is until he's had a little more time to make adjustments and then get tested against upper minors talent.

[drjim]

And Rooker has? Because that's what Thrylos was responding to.

Can we compromise and say neither had really flashed much and should not be penciled in for anything at this point.

 

But I would bet more on Rooker than Diaz at this point. Diaz brings little but a low k rate. At least Rooker shows some pop and will take a walk.

[old nurse]

 

Correct, high A in Rooker' s case. But, I'll have to agree to disagree with anyone saying he's doing stellar there.
An. 805 OPS from a 22 year old, bat only college draft pick isn't good, IMO.

In a league that the hitters average less than .700 ops, 805 is good. If qualified, it would be the 25th best. In all of A+ ball there are 120 out of the 792 with an ab younger than 22. 180 22 years old.  Rooker is not old for the league.

[Mr. Brooks]

I didn't say he had. I said he's flashed a powerful bat and the potential to be advanced quickly. Nothing remarkable, yet no real red flags yet either. He's basically meeting expectations. That isn't enough to make a strong assessment one or or the other, which is fine because he's only two months into his career. I don't think we'll know what he is until he's had a little more time to make adjustments and then get tested against upper minors talent.

I know YOU didn't, but the OP that Thrylos responded to did. That was what I was trying to point out before.

[Mr. Brooks]

Can we compromise and say neither had really flashed much and should not be penciled in for anything at this point.

 

But I would bet more on Rooker than Diaz at this point. Diaz brings little but a low k rate. At least Rooker shows some pop and will take a walk.

That's not a compromise, that's my view as well, Rooker is just as big of unknown at this point as Diaz is.

[Mr. Brooks]

In a league that the hitters average less than .700 ops, 805 is good. If qualified, it would be the 25th best. In all of A+ ball there are 120 out of the 792 with an ab younger than 22. 180 22 years old. Rooker is not old for the league.

You are including a whole mix of guys with those numbers.

Many of those have defensive value.

Many of those were 18 year old draft picks or 16 year old FA's at one time.

Most of those weren't top 40 picks.

And very few, if any, were one of the best hitters in the SEC.

 

But, of course, when i said agree to disagree, it was because I knew many would disagree.

 

And, I'm far from saying he's been bad. He hasn't. But I don't consider his numbers at A+ to qualify as "stellar" either.

[Mr. Brooks]

Also, if you are including every player at a level, an actual prospect is never going to be "old" for their level, never.

You have a bunch of career minor leaguers skewing that average age.

22 is not young for Ft Myers for an actual prospect.

That's not necessarily Rookers fault, he was older even for a college pick, I don't think he should be higher right now.

But, that said, he had another full year of seeing advanced SEC pitching. And that's a developmental advantage, so it's part of the context just the same.

[jokin]

 

I can think of 275 reasons to move him off third base.

 

Hey look, he pulls a muscle on a play like he made last night, he's out for a month.

 

Go find me another 275 lb third sacker, ever, in the history of MLB. 

 

Long run, you protect a guy that drives in runs by playing him at a position he can make plays and not get hurt.

 

Hopefully he can pick it at 1B, but that's his future.  100% guarantee on that.

 

He hasn't gotten hurt at 3B yet, right? His defensive play, even during his recent hitting slump,suggest that this issue can wait until he's in his later 20s. Molly pointed out today that he's doing great at the position and said it's widely acknowledged that Sano has a 7-8 arm, which is elite. Why not use that arm at 3B and get another big bopper at 1B until Sano makes the move sometime after 2020?

[jokin]

 

Great early returns...

 

Rooker's already in Ft. Myers, way ahead of a 'normal' draft curve.

Charlie Barnes, Bryan Sammons and Jordan Gore are already up in Cedar Rapids and doing well.

And Lewis being in Cedar Rapids is  quite unusual... It's exciting to see. 

Definitely an exciting difference in selection approach and developmental philosophy from the past regime. It feels like we're finally and inexorably beginning to catch up to the other enlightened rocket scientist baseball executives.

[Old Twins Cap]

 

He hasn't gotten hurt at 3B yet, right? His defensive play, even during his recent hitting slump,suggest that this issue can wait until he's in his later 20s. Molly pointed out today that he's doing great at the position and said it's widely acknowledged that Sano has a 7-8 arm, which is elite. Why not use that arm at 3B and get another big bopper at 1B until Sano makes the move sometime after 2020?

 

And the answer is:  Because Sano is a cornerstone piece to the offense, you do not expose him to injury on defense.

 

Sano looks good now at 3B, though apparently the metrics see him as average, but over time, with a better defender at third, the rationale for playing him there erodes, and then, just disappears -- decline, lack of mobility, injury risk.

 

It's going to happen quicker than TD posters realize, maybe as soon as contract extension.

 

You don't put $20M on a spot that pre-disposes his bat to being out of the lineup.

[wagwan]

Rooker has 29 strikeouts in 98 at bats with the Miracle. He is almost 23. Maybe he will be the answer but let's wait a bit before we change this pick from an under slot reach to a can't miss Twins 1B

[The Wise One]

The top 10 that are not injured from last year and the year before seem to be progressing through the minors. A cursory glance says no duds.  Stellar returns, too? Nope. Not until they hit the bigs or are traded for something worthwhile.

[twinstalker]

 

Seriously? 

 

I get so tired of this sentiment. Sano may not be Brooks Robinson. But he made a spectacular play last night, and he's made significant improvements in his defense versus last year. He works hard at it, and wants to be a good player. As he showed last night, and on many other occasions, he can make seriously good plays over there. Give him time.

 

He's only 24 years old. This is his first full season in the majors playing third base. He can definitely. And his best value is as a third baseman, period. 

 

That's also the best option for the Twins, who can get a number of people to play first base -- you know, like the aforementioned Rooker, or Alex Kiriloff. I doubt anybody in the minors in the Twins' system, not Nick Gordon, not Wander Javier, not Royce Lewis, has the hitting potential that Sano has and is showing. 

 

People shouldn't be so quick to put Sano at first base or designated hitter. 

Unfortunately, Sano's desires to be a good 3B probably won't outweigh his appetite for, well, food.  Other than his obvious affection for food, his mentality won't play a part in his move.  Being 24 is why he can play 3B now.  When he's 27 and the desire to be the best fielder he can be has waned, he'll be only a 1B.  Everyone sees that, and I don't think it's really going to matter when, post-Mauer.  

 

In 2019 Mauer might well be gone (I think there's a good chance he stays cheaply to be part-time on a Twins winner).  Dozier will be gone.  Gordon will be up and will have struggled.  Polanco will be here.  Sano playing 1B most of the time probably depends on whether Rooker, Lewis, or some wild card forces playing time.  Whatever happens, I don't see this as being too crowded. 

[Penthang]

For the folks who want to move Sano off of third I would remind you that he lost about two years of development time to TJ and the misguided outfield experiment. I'm not saying that he is the long term answer at third but I still think he could be. I'm certainly happy to let him develop there until someone forces the issue through their play. In the meantime let him spell Mauer at first to get some reps there as well. Remember, having options across the field isn't a bad thing…now let's hope the front office/manager make the choices that create the best on field product!

[markos]

 

In a league that the hitters average less than .700 ops, 805 is good. If qualified, it would be the 25th best. In all of A+ ball there are 120 out of the 792 with an ab younger than 22. 180 22 years old.  Rooker is not old for the league.

For what it's worth, Kyle Schwarber and Kris Bryant both made it to the Florida State League a couple months after the draft. They had a .950 and 1.100 OPS respectively. For better or worse, that is the benchmark that I'm using to judge whether or not Rooker is on track to be a fast-moving, impact MLB bat.