Article: Bullpen Ramblings

[Han Joelo]

Was just reading about how Chapman is "struggling" for the Yankees.  I think you keep mining for Kintzlers, maybe step up a notch and look at this year's version of Greg Holland, but stay away from big contracts for aging relievers.

 

If you want the best relievers, seems like you have to develop them--or pay the price in prospects to get them in their primes.

[h2oface]

 

I think the "stat guys" were saying that it was hard to predict which RPs would be good, and that they were expensive because of that, relative to expected outcomes, not that RPs were not worth signing if you could figure out which ones would be good. 

 

Maybe...... and I could be misremembering, but I remember that they were not worth signing specifically because you can't be sure which ones would be good, so don't do it at all, and use the grow your own method.

Edited August 15, 2017 by h2oface

[Willihammer]

The Twins could certainly go out right now and add a reliever or two in a trade.

 

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Well no, they can't evidently.

[Dantes929]

 

concur.

 

The argument "don't sign these guys because they might not be good, or might get injured.  Let's instead hope these other guys become good, and don't get injured" doesn't make much sense to me.

I really have no problem with that but at some point internal options have to step up especially if you have been drafting for the intent purposes of having a great relief corps.    Quite possibly May, Burdi and Chargois were 3 of the top 5 guys we were counting on in the pen.    What team wouldn't be hurt pretty severely to have their top 3 relievers out before the season even started?   I only say possibly because there was a chance May was going to start.   You can only plan so far.    If KC's elite 3 relievers had season ending injuries before the season started would it have been fair for the fans to say "hey, they should have had 3 more elite relievers in reserve"   Where would the early decade Twins have been if Rincon and Hawkins had gotten hurt?    Later Twins if Crain and Guerrier got injured a week into the season?

I am fine with investing in quality relievers.   I just don't like the argument that relying on internal options for next year is identical to relying on internal options in other years.   Different levels of talent and stages in development make that point very weak, imo.   

[USAFChief]

 

I really have no problem with that but at some point internal options have to step up especially if you have been drafting for the intent purposes of having a great relief corps.    Quite possibly May, Burdi and Chargois were 3 of the top 5 guys we were counting on in the pen.    What team wouldn't be hurt pretty severely to have their top 3 relievers out before the season even started?   I only say possibly because there was a chance May was going to start.   You can only plan so far.    If KC's elite 3 relievers had season ending injuries before the season started would it have been fair for the fans to say "hey, they should have had 3 more elite relievers in reserve"   Where would the early decade Twins have been if Rincon and Hawkins had gotten hurt?    Later Twins if Crain and Guerrier got injured a week into the season?

I am fine with investing in quality relievers.   I just don't like the argument that relying on internal options for next year is identical to relying on internal options in other years.   Different levels of talent and stages in development make that point very weak, imo.   

But that's my point...When May, Burdi, and Chargois are "3 of the top 5" you're in trouble before the season even starts.

 

May had trouble the previous season, and it borders on malpractice to count on two guys with both little-to-no MLB experience and injury histories.

 

I've been hearing about how Burdi et al are the bullpen fix since the day they were drafted.  Build a pen, and let minor leaguers like that force their way in, or at worst, be among those considered for the inevitable injuries and/or ineffectiveness in the big league pen.

 

Nobody ever suffered from having too many good options.

[Dantes929]

 

But that's my point...When May, Burdi, and Chargois are "3 of the top 5" you're in trouble before the season even starts.

 

May had trouble the previous season, and it borders on malpractice to count on two guys with both little-to-no MLB experience and injury histories.

 

I've been hearing about how Burdi et al are the bullpen fix since the day they were drafted.  Build a pen, and let minor leaguers like that force their way in, or at worst, be among those considered for the inevitable injuries and/or ineffectiveness in the big league pen.

 

Nobody ever suffered from having too many good options.

Again, no problem with the last sentence.   Burdi was drafted in 2014 and et al were drafted then or near then so anyone saying they were the bullpen fix for 2014, 2015 or even 2016 were unrealistic.    Just like Buxton and Sano injuries have made us wait an extra year but they may still be the fix for 2018 or 2019.   I haven't seen them pitch so I really don't know.   Maybe we really do need to get a lot of outside help.    I just never liked the argument referred to in my other post.    Fans before the season were saying how can a team do basically nothing and expect not to lose 103 games again.    Well, we let talent develop and we would now have to go 0-46 to lose 103. 

[Seth Stohs]

 

Well no, they can't evidently.

 

Huh? Did I forget to add the "if they want" qualifier?

[Otto von Ballpark]

Huh? Did I forget to add the "if they want" qualifier?

Waivers? I guess they might be able to get another team's Belisle...

[bighat]

 

It's admirable of Perkins to get this far after a serious injury... But honestly, I don't know if I want to see him in a Twins uniform. Especially if they're playing meaningful games in September. 

 

Could not agree more, Van. Watching Perkins waltz into the bullpen wearing his "free pass" hometown boy Gopher t-shirt under his uniform? No thank you. It's sort of like the Phillies and Ryan Howard. He did some good things for this team, but when a guy's out of gas you gotta DFA him and just let someone else take a flyer if they want. He's toast and this Twins fans does not want to see him in a MN uniform ever again. Perkins hasn't pitched for over a year and the last time he did he was getting plastered and was a huge contributor to the collapse in the early days of a dreadful 2016. This team needs to bury the ghost and move on with what got them here. I think Perkins returning would have a negative effect on the clubhouse and the way the team feels - kinda like when that hated co-worker returns from a long vacation in the office.

[DocBauer]

I agree with so much here, both sides of the aisle even, and could post quite a few quotes. Of course, that would prove monotonous as hell.

 

The Twins have drafted quite a few power arms the past few years. Some for the pen, some with the idea of starting before moving back to the pen. Ryan very clearly made a mistake in expecting too much too soon from these guys. The lack of major activity by the new FO this past off season was limited time and familiarity with the club, prospects, and possible expectations in what is/was an evaluation year. But even with some very disappointing injuries holding some guys back, others have stepped to the forefront: Reed, Curtiss, Busentiz, etc.

 

Duffey shows promise; great start, slippage, and now pitching well again. Early returns on Hildenberger and Busentiz are encouraging. Pressly has shown positively before this season and has great stuff. It looks like he's been turning it around after discovery he was trying "too hard" and overthrowing. (Something I've been saying for over a month now).

 

Relief pitchers, their stats, their season's, streaks within their season's, can often prove volatile. We know this. Still, there is NOTHING wrong with this team signing a quality, proven RP. Further, there is NOTHING wrong with signing a second, maybe even a third arm coming off injury, or a poor season bounce back, or even a failed SP that is open to converting. But you also can't ignore the arms currently on roster, and close, as well as the interns injury options that should be back at some point in 2018.

 

In other words, do both! Sign the big arm. Take a flier or maybe two, one from the port side. But for a club over the initial rebuilding hump, DO NOT ignore what you have on hand to audition, develop and build with.

[DocBauer]

Side note: Good for Perkins to work this hard in his attempt. I think he's toast. And no matter what, his option will not be picked up. But what if he actually shows a little Something? We talk about a FA or two, a flier here and there, if he actually shows something, how about a 1 year prove it deal with some incentives to see if he can team with Rogers to form an effective LH duo?

[yarnivek1972]

Side note: Good for Perkins to work this hard in his attempt. I think he's toast. And no matter what, his option will not be picked up. But what if he actually shows a little Something? We talk about a FA or two, a flier here and there, if he actually shows something, how about a 1 year prove it deal with some incentives to see if he can team with Rogers to form an effective LH duo?

Something wrong with Boshers filling that role possibly with O'Rourke as plan B or maybe Nik Turley? Boshers has been extremely effective vs LHB.

[DocBauer]

Something wrong with Boshers filling that role possibly with O'Rourke as plan B or maybe Nik Turley? Boshers has been extremely effective vs LHB.

Nope. Like most of what Boshers has done, really intrigued by the potential of Turley, but control still may be an issue. Was hopeful for Melotakis and Jay, but injury has slowed both. And there are some guys like Rosario and others that could come up. But right now, 2018-19, if Perkins actually shows something, I'd have to consider him on a 1 year.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

True. But at the time wasn't Nolasco the highest priced FA signed to date by the Twins?

thats still a low bar

[yarnivek1972]

If Perkins does come back, it sounds like Santiago could be removed from the 40 man by being placed on the 60 day DL. It wouldn't be an automatic season ender. Santiago has already been out 45 days.

[howieramone2]

 

Waivers? I guess they might be able to get another team's Belisle...

If they pitch like Belisle has in the past 2 months, it's a great move. 

[Loosey]

 

It's admirable of Perkins to get this far after a serious injury... But honestly, I don't know if I want to see him in a Twins uniform. Especially if they're playing meaningful games in September. 

I doubt he gets into any game that is not decided.  I assume he is mop up man.

[Vanimal46]

 

I doubt he gets into any game that is not decided.  I assume he is mop up man.

 

I would hope so too. But he's never been a multi-inning mop up man. I guess he'd fill the role that Breslow had? 

[Willihammer]

 

Huh? Did I forget to add the "if they want" qualifier?

Levine practically apologized for being unable to complete a trade in the Strib last week.

 

The Twins “have placed a lot of [waiver] claims on players we think can help our team,” Levine said, but have not been able to negotiate a trade. “It’s not for lack of effort on our part,” he added. “We’ve already pivoted once in this process, and I think we demonstrated a willingness to respond to the way the team is performing. … We have the support of ownership to do it, and we’re going to continue to be creative and aggressive the rest of the season to help our team.”

 

Sounds like they want to add a player(s). I assume bullpen, but we can't say for sure I guess. In any case, its another reason to over-prepare before the season starts, because you can't necessarily swing a trade later, especially in August.

[USAFChief]

 

I doubt he gets into any game that is not decided.  I assume he is mop up man.

Great, so our 8 man pen is effectively 7.  

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Sounds like they want to add a player(s). I assume bullpen, but we can't say for sure I guess. In any case, its another reason to over-prepare before the season starts, because you can't necessarily swing a trade later, especially in August.

That was one of the things that bugged me in the Gleeman - Levine interview:

 

 

One of the things that hurt us this year, and this just speaks to having areas of the game and how you really just can't count on human beings, especially men—I mean, we're very unpredictable—is that we had a bunch of guys—Tyler Jay, J.T. Chargois, Nick Burdi, Jake Reed, Ryan O'Rourke, Trevor May—all of them got hurt. And those are six guys right there that, if I had to guess, come August 1, how many of them would be on our major-league staff of 12 guys? I would have probably told you five.

 

Counting on 5 of those 6 to be healthy and effective in MLB in 2017 never seemed realistic.

[Vanimal46]

 

That was one of the things that bugged me in the Gleeman - Levine interview:

 

 

Counting on 5 of those 6 to be healthy and effective in MLB in 2017 never seemed realistic.

 

Agreed. Trevor May, and maybe Chargois since he had a cup of joe last year I could see. The rest were still unproven, raw, or in the case of O'Rourke, AAAA material. 

[h2oface]

I cringe at the thought of wasting innings on Perkins this year. Especially now. NO NO NO. Time for retirement. Only if and when the Twins are eliminated should he get the mound for old times' sake.

Edited August 16, 2017 by h2oface

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Agreed. Trevor May, and maybe Chargois since he had a cup of joe last year I could see. The rest were still unproven, raw, or in the case of O'Rourke, AAAA material. 

Even May was hurt and ineffective for much of 2016, and Chargois missed two whole seasons and only had a month of effective MLB pitching on his resume.

 

And like I always say, you don't have to cut them. You can certainly hope they contribute. But planning on 5 of 6?  That's not bad luck, that's bad planning.

[Rosterman]

Yes YES so many talnted arms, and from the unexpected.

 

But, man, talk about having all your TOP prospects go down at once. What a bullpen that would make, if healthy.

'

Think the Twins are sitting pretty well. They do have to move on from the also rans, even in invites to spring training. The prospects should be equal to the Tonkins, Wimmers, Boshers, Presslys and Duffeys.

 

A whole new look for Twins pitching.

 

Now who is the rotation, what with May on rehab and Hughes probably gone. Berrios, Santana and whom?

[yarnivek1972]

Agreed. Trevor May, and maybe Chargois since he had a cup of joe last year I could see. The rest were still unproven, raw, or in the case of O'Rourke, AAAA material.

O'Rourke was one of the most effective loogys in MLB last year. LHB were 2 for 26 against him last year.