Article: Gleeman & The Geek, Ep 328: Wild Week, Wild Card

[John Bonnes]

Aaron and John talk about the Twins' surge back into contention, including an ugly speed bump Saturday in Detroit, plus the post-Brandon Kintzler bullpen, Eddie Rosario and Miguel Sano trending in opposite directions, Paul Molitor's decision-making, Brian Dozier in the leadoff spot, Royce Lewis' quick promotion, Byron Buxton's last half-season, RXBAR making us feel less out of shape, Bartolo Colon being in command again, and time traveling in the name of romance. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Stitcher or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click this link.http://traffic.libsy...3?dest-id=74590

 

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[PopRiveter]

Happy they moved the spotlight to the question of why Brian Dozier and his power are at leadoff.

 

However, I think they missed the most important point.

 

-yeah, Brain Dozier is overall a power hitter and it would seem wise to maximize his power-except for the fact that he's only a power hitter when the bases are empty.

 

He's hitting 1 home run every 17 PA's (.541 SLG) with the bases empty, but only 1 hr every 47.75 PA's (.363 SLG) with a man on base.

 

Dozier shrinks into a weak hitter when he bats with a baserunner. Something is lacking with his approach.

 

Still a fun discussion to listen to. Even with the scrambled timeline this week

[kellyvance]

Those who say Dozier is only a power hitter with based empty ignore a few facts that suggest otherwise. It is NOT him.  Because he bats leadoff he often finds bases empty. The pitchers throw him an occasional ball up and in when there is nobody on base. With base runners they often pitch him away. So he gets fewer homer potential pitches with runners on base. That's just baseball.  The sample size with him batting 3rd or 4th is too small to draw any conclusions. But in a prolonged role in those slots, with Sano batting behind him, he may very well drive in 100 runs. He drove in 99 last year hitting mainly leadoff. That is outstanding. 

[Mr. Brooks]

  On 8/14/2017 at 6:29 PM, kellyvance said:

Those who say Dozier is only a power hitter with based empty ignore a few facts that suggest otherwise. It is NOT him. Because he bats leadoff he often finds bases empty. The pitchers throw him an occasional ball up and in when there is nobody on base. With base runners they often pitch him away. So he gets fewer homer potential pitches with runners on base. That's just baseball. The sample size with him batting 3rd or 4th is too small to draw any conclusions. But in a prolonged role in those slots, with Sano batting behind him, he may very well drive in 100 runs. He drove in 99 last year hitting mainly leadoff. That is outstanding.

If what you say is true (lack of HR's with men on is due to pitching around him), then his OBP should be higher with men on- it's not.

 

Otherwise you are saying that pitchers just try harder not to make a mistake with men on, and it works.

That doesn't make any sense to me. If it were that easy, they would just try harder all the time.

Do you have any data to support your assertion that this happens league wide, and not just to Dozier?

[kellyvance]

How about I played the game until I was 49? And I still coach at 61.

 

Of course pitchers are more careful with men on base. You don't need data to know that. Just watch some games. Pitchers are much more likely to challenge a hitter with nobody on. In Dozier's case they throw him up and middle or middle in and .....it's gone. They pitch him outside with men on base. 

[Mr. Brooks]

  On 8/15/2017 at 9:00 PM, kellyvance said:

How about I played the game until I was 49? And I still coach at 61.

 

Of course pitchers are more careful with men on base. You don't need data to know that. Just watch some games. Pitchers are much more likely to challenge a hitter with nobody on. In Dozier's case they throw him up and middle or middle in and .....it's gone. They pitch him outside with men on base.

Again, if they are more careful with men on base, then his OBP should be higher. It's not.

 

These guys are playing for very high stakes. If they've found a way to pitch Dozier that works that well, it would behoove them to pitch that way all the time.

 

Of course pitchers TRY to pitch more carefully with men on base.

The problem, as someone with your experience knows, is that baseball is hard, and guys can't always hit their spot at will.

 

Put it this way:

If however they are pitching him lowers his average, OBP, AND slugging, then what is the downside to just pitching him that way all the time?

 

Also, none of that is data, that is all anecdotal.

 

Lastly, all of us here watch and understand baseball. There is no need to be condescending.

[Mr. Brooks]

Here are Mike Trout's splits:

 

Empty: .308/.412/.629

Men on: .392/.542/.784

 

I think someone ought to tell these pitchers to be more careful with men on base!

Oh wait, it's not that easy?

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Hi John - Happy anniversary. Great podcast as always.

 

It might have been easier to follow if the podcast had been edited together in the order it was recorded with the disclaimer at the beginning, sorry we might repeat ourselves on the radio portion.

 

Otherwise, one of my favorite discussions of yours while on the air. I do enjoy a lively debate, sometimes the radio aspect can serve to tone down what would become more spirited debate were there a couple of beers consumed first.

[kellyvance]

 

  On 8/15/2017 at 9:16 PM, Mr. Brooks said:

Again, if they are more careful with men on base, then his OBP should be higher. It's not.

These guys are playing for very high stakes. If they've found a way to pitch Dozier that works that well, it would behoove them to pitch that way all the time.

Of course pitchers TRY to pitch more carefully with men on base.
The problem, as someone with your experience knows, is that baseball is hard, and guys can't always hit their spot at will.

Put it this way:
If however they are pitching him lowers his average, OBP, AND slugging, then what is the downside to just pitching him that way all the time?

Also, none of that is data, that is all anecdotal.

Lastly, all of us here watch and understand baseball. There is no need to be condescending.

Don't mean to be condescending. But OBP doesn't figure into it.  Dozier is not good at hitting outside pitches, so strike outs happen. Just because they pitch to his weakness doesn't mean his OBP should go up. In fact, it is the opposite.  Pitchers are more willing to challenge him with nobody on base is my observation. Should they pitch him outside more often. I think so. I could be wrong, but when I watch the games, Dozier waves at outside pitches. He crushes pitches letter high middle and middle in. 

Edited August 18, 2017 by kellyvance

[PopRiveter]

 

 

  On 8/14/2017 at 6:29 PM, kellyvance said:

Those who say Dozier is only a power hitter with based empty ignore a few facts that suggest otherwise. It is NOT him.  Because he bats leadoff he often finds bases empty. The pitchers throw him an occasional ball up and in when there is nobody on base. With base runners they often pitch him away. So he gets fewer homer potential pitches with runners on base. That's just baseball.  The sample size with him batting 3rd or 4th is too small to draw any conclusions. But in a prolonged role in those slots, with Sano batting behind him, he may very well drive in 100 runs. He drove in 99 last year hitting mainly leadoff. That is outstanding. 

 

Agreed that his leadoff power is outstanding. However, for 2 seasons, he has quite simply failed to translate that to power in situations where men are on base. I think your comment "he gets fewer homer potential pitches with runners on base" is right on, but it's also my point. He can manage to get the cookie he likes to hit but only when no one is on. When somebody is on base, he's now improved to hitting 1 HR per 41 PA. Slugging .388

You assert that "That's baseball," but it is not the case for all power hitters. Many hit their homeruns at the same rate or even a higher rate when there are runners. My whole point is that his power shows up a LOT more when bases are empty, therefore, I no longer see a big need to move him down the order. He still sees a lot of opportunities with men on base, he just is not a power hitter in those situations.

 

[kellyvance]

Yesterday they showed Dozier's hitting results. With men on base he often hits behind the runners to move them over for Joe and Sano. He hits singles and doubles to right field. I think that shows that he makes the best of what he gets and knows RBI guys hit behind him. He adjusts.  As a lead off hitter with bases empty he faces more pitches that are grooved, and I think Dozier looks to hit it out more in those at bats.