Article: MIN 11, MIL 4: Twins Slug 5 Home Runs

[drjim]

 

Give it a rest already. You don't like that the Twins "sold". We get it. Do you need to bring it up in every single thread?

Move on.

 

I support bringing it up in every relevant thread.

[drjim]

 

I don't think Garver gets the call until Gimenez is traded this month and I don't know if they even trade him if we are still in the race. 

 

This is correct. And they aren't going to break in a minor league catcher when there really is no need.

 

There is a little too much optimism regarding Garver both offensively, but especially defensively.

[ashbury]

I support bringing it up in every relevant thread.

The TD Comment Policy does mention this as an example of trolling:

• inserting a pet idea into thread after thread

I'd ask that you dial it back a little.

 

[drjim]

 

The TD Comment Policy does mention this as an example of trolling:

• inserting a pet idea into thread after thread

I'd ask that you dial it back a little.

 

Fair enough. I was thinking a tight definition of "relevant". But I suspect the feelings of most are now well known.

[ThejacKmp]

 

Kintzler himself is not irreplaceable, but they are still short in the pen. Trading away one of the more effective arms isn't going to help with that situation.

 

Would be something if they turned around and added another arm or two.

 

Their improvement in the pen should come from within. They traded Kintzler for value and now they have room to try younger guys during a pennant race. Pretty great.

[ThejacKmp]

 

Looks like our old friend Kennys Vargas is the callup to replace Mejia on the active roster.  That means Gee is the starter Sunday. He's the best choice based on performance and I think he deserves the start. He's only 31, not that old for a pitcher, and could be a rotation piece as a 5/6/7 starter next year.  Looks like Tim Melville may be the same. Now is the time to find out on both guys.

 

I'm not quite sure why Vargas instead of Garver who is hitting much better, but it looks like Garver will not get a look until September. Probably about maintaining options. I think Vargas is gone after this year, at least to another organization.  It might be to Korea or Japan since he is out of options unless a bad team wants to give him an extended run. 

 

Not necessarily. The Twins could be bringing Vargas up for three days and then bringing up someone else (Jorge, Sledgers, Melville) on Saturday while sending Vargas back down. They'd lose the ability to bring Vargas back up for 10 days (unless someone goes on the DL) but that wouldn't seem like something that would hinder them.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Their improvement in the pen should come from within. They traded Kintzler for value and now they have room to try younger guys during a pennant race. Pretty great.

While getting anything back for Kintzler seems better than getting nothing for him after the season, it should be noted that Watson isn't a great prospect, and some have already predicted he will wind up in the pen himself.  It's quite possible that Kintzler will provide more MLB value in the next two months than Tyler Watson will accumulate in his MLB career.

[Mike Sixel]

 

While getting anything back for Kintzler seems better than getting nothing for him after the season, it should be noted that Watson isn't a great prospect, and some have already predicted he will wind up in the pen himself.  It's quite possible that Kintzler will provide more MLB value in the next two months than Tyler Watson will accumulate in his MLB career.

 

of course it's possible. It's also possible any value the Twins got from Kintzler this year doesn't matter to making the playoffs or not (likely, even), and possible Watson provides some when it is needed in the future (not super likely), but he has 4-6 years to try.

[ThejacKmp]

 

While getting anything back for Kintzler seems better than getting nothing for him after the season, it should be noted that Watson isn't a great prospect, and some have already predicted he will wind up in the pen himself.  It's quite possible that Kintzler will provide more MLB value in the next two months than Tyler Watson will accumulate in his MLB career.

 

Also possible that Watson becomes a three time Cy Young winner.

 

My original point would be that Kintzler wasn't going to be the piece that put the Twins over the top. The Twins didn't give up when they traded Kintzler, they just said, "If we do this, it will be on young arms." That's a pretty decent idea in my book. Watson is another prospect lottery ticket.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

of course it's possible. It's also possible any value the Twins got from Kintzler this year doesn't matter to making the playoffs or not (likely, even), and possible Watson provides some when it is needed in the future (not super likely), but he has 4-6 years to try.

 

 

Also possible that Watson becomes a three time Cy Young winner.

 

My original point would be that Kintzler wasn't going to be the piece that put the Twins over the top. The Twins didn't give up when they traded Kintzler, they just said, "If we do this, it will be on young arms." That's a pretty decent idea in my book. Watson is another prospect lottery ticket.

 

By "possible" I wasn't just inventing fairy tales.  KATOH projects Watson at 2.6 WAR for his career, and that could be giving him the benefit of the doubt (his stats seem better regarded than his scouting?).

 

Kintzler had 1.3 WAR for 2017 when we traded him.  A reasonable projection might have been 0.7-0.8 WAR for the rest of the season.  In a pennant race, that could be huge -- and yes, it could be the difference in making the playoffs or not.

 

Imagine if the 2015 Twins had "traded" Perkins at the deadline (instead of losing him to injury).  That could have easily been another ~1 WAR difference, and while we finished 3 games out, we were only 1 game out entering our final series, and we punted our last game after elimination.  (And our bullpen took the loss in our elimination game too.)  That 1 WAR could have re-made that entire stretch run.

 

Also, trading Kintzler wasn't required to give young arms a look.  And while I am not opposed to contributions from young players at any time, a good FO should be able to evaluate young players without using a pennant race to do so.  And arguably the Twins FO has already done that -- if the FO believed in these young guys, they would have been up already, no?  Kintzler was not blocking anyone.

 

No one player is usually "the piece that is going to put a team over the top" but that doesn't mean it necessarily makes sense to trade those players for lotto tickets.  It can be defensible, but it's hardly a slam dunk.  I think the 2017 Twins are an edge case -- yeah, we're not in a great position, but Kintzler wasn't bringing back some special return either.

Edited August 9, 2017 by spycake

[ThejacKmp]

 

Imagine if the 2015 Twins had "traded" Perkins at the deadline (instead of losing him to injury).  That could have easily been another ~1 WAR difference, and while we finished 3 games out, we were only 1 game out entering our final series, and we punted our last game after elimination.  (And our bullpen took the loss in our elimination game too.)  That 1 WAR could have re-made that entire stretch run.

 

Also, trading Kintzler wasn't required to give young arms a look.  And while I am not opposed to contributions from young players at any time, a good FO should be able to evaluate young players without using a pennant race to do so.  And arguably the Twins FO has already done that -- if the FO believed in these young guys, they would have been up already, no?  Kintzler was not blocking anyone.

 

No one player is usually "the piece that is going to put a team over the top" but that doesn't mean it necessarily makes sense to trade those players for lotto tickets.  It can be defensible, but it's hardly a slam dunk.  I think the 2017 Twins are an edge case -- yeah, we're not in a great position, but Kintzler wasn't bringing back some special return either.

 

I understand your example here but man, that's not great evidence. One of the great "what ifs" is what might have happened if the Twins had sold high on Perkins. He would've been an elite bullpen arm at the deadline and could have really jumpstarted the Twins rebuilding. Instead they got nothing. To me, that's an example of why you trade Kintzler - the guy is unlikely to be the difference between winning and losing and you can get something for him. His is less in his value vs. his impending free agency but the principle is the same.

 

I like Tyler Watson more than most (20 year olds striking out more than a batter per inning in A ball will always pique my interest) but I get he's a lottery ticket. To me it's also about how you value Kintzler. He's not 2015 Perkins or 2005 Nathan, he's a guy with a nice season and a half but who you wouldn't be surprised to see regress some given his stuff. For that reason, I think it's a fine trade that allowed the Twins to get some interesting young guys without torpedoing this season.

[jimbo92107]

"Rosario had a three-homer game this June, but tonight was the first two-homer game of his career."

 

Dang it, he's getting worse!

 

;-)

[DJSim22]

A game and a half back with four teams to climb over.  The second part is not being mentioned and is far more difficult. 

[DJSim22]

 

This is correct. And they aren't going to break in a minor league catcher when there really is no need.

 

There is a little too much optimism regarding Garver both offensively, but especially defensively.

 

Completely agree, but yet we have to read the same old Garver stuff every other thread. 

 

Twins, please call him up in Sept. so we can have a different conversation!

Edited August 10, 2017 by DJSim22

[USAFChief]

Give it a rest already. You don't like that the Twins "sold". We get it. Do you need to bring it up in every single thread?

 

Move on.

I didn't "bring it up."

 

I responded to another poster. In a relevant way, in a relevant thread.

 

For the first time, BTW.