Article: Twins Need Sagging Bats To Rev It Up

[USAFChief]

long live Joe Mauer!

And his six XBHs per month!

[Mike Sixel]

 

From where I'm sitting, the league has figured out Kepler. He's a very good fastball hitter but can't hit a breaking ball to save his life, just like Buxton (although he can't hit fastballs either). Ditto Sano. If these are going to be "core" players for the next 5 years, they need to figure that out. Maybe they need to replace Rowson.

 

Its pretty clear through 69 PAs that Granite's a Revere type 4th outfielder. No XBH power at all,

 

Vargas turned 27 yesterday. The guy has the most awkward over-his-front-foot downward tomahawk swing I think I've ever seen from a MLB player. Cut him.

 

Park is a bust.

 

Castro's shouldn't be hitting any higher than 9.

 

Grossman doesn't have enough power or defense to start regularly. Man without a position, but maybe enough to stick around as a 5th OFer.

 

Polanco & Adrianza- someone please tell the Twins that all switch hitting middle infielder with a last name that ends in a vowel aren't automatically MLB calibre players. No punch at all.

 

Escobar- seems to have proven himself average across the board. Good enough for now.

 

Gimenez- no

 

Agree on most of this. Seriously, start cutting guys now. Grossman is not part of a winning future. Gimenez is not part of any future. Either call Vargas up, and let him play every day, or move on. Park is only signed for 1 more year past this year, so who cares if he gets hot or not in AAA. Granite is a fine 4th OF, since he can play defense, though I think we are judging his offense a bit fast.

[Willihammer]

Mauer's fine. He'll make contact with an off speed pitch on occasion and isn't the automatic rally killer like half the lineup right now. Obviously would like Vargas or Park to take the job from him but they simply haven't.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Agree on most of this. Seriously, start cutting guys now. Grossman is not part of a winning future. Gimenez is not part of any future. Either call Vargas up, and let him play every day, or move on. Park is only signed for 1 more year past this year, so who cares if he gets hot or not in AAA. Granite is a fine 4th OF, since he can play defense, though I think we are judging his offense a bit fast.

 

to be clear, I'm not saying cut Vargas from AAA....but if you won't try him out seriously this year, when will you?

[Taildragger8791]

1B and DH should be the easiest places to find upgrades in free agency this year. They need more XBHs and run production out of those spots, because we aren't going to get it from up the middle players on this squad (Dozier's solo homers excluded) and Rosario/Kepler aren't exactly destroyers of baseballs either.

 

I don't know what this means for Mauer, and he hasn't been bad by any means, but there is so much more opportunity for offense out of the position he occupies. A 60-RBI first baseman, even with gold glove defense, just leaves too much on the table.

[james2334]

I know Joe Mauer gets blamed for everything from global warming to the Kennedy assassination, but a sub .800 OPS for a first basemen just doesn't cut it. You have a DH that doesn't hit homeruns and a second basemen that wets himself every time someone is on base. That leaves it up to Sano to produce more runs. Teams know this and pitch him accordingly forcing someone else to beat them. Other than Rosario no one has really stepped up. They need to go out and get a big bat in the off season to hit behind Sano. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

1B and DH should be the easiest places to find upgrades in free agency this year. They need more XBHs and run production out of those spots, because we aren't going to get it from up the middle players on this squad (Dozier's solo homers excluded) and Rosario/Kepler aren't exactly destroyers of baseballs either.

 

I don't know what this means for Mauer, and he hasn't been bad by any means, but there is so much more opportunity for offense out of the position he occupies. A 60-RBI first baseman, even with gold glove defense, just leaves too much on the table.

 

they tried to sign a DH this off season, and failed. Why do we feel this will be "easy" to do this off season?

[Doomtints]

 

From where I'm sitting, the league has figured out Kepler. He's a very good fastball hitter but can't hit a breaking ball to save his life, just like Buxton (although he can't hit fastballs either). Ditto Sano. If these are going to be "core" players for the next 5 years, they need to figure that out. Maybe they need to replace Rowson.

 

Its pretty clear through 69 PAs that Granite's a Revere type 4th outfielder. No XBH power at all,

 

Vargas turned 27 yesterday. The guy has the most awkward over-his-front-foot downward tomahawk swing I think I've ever seen from a MLB player. Cut him.

 

Park is a bust.

 

Castro's shouldn't be hitting any higher than 9.

 

Grossman doesn't have enough power or defense to start regularly. Man without a position, but maybe enough to stick around as a 5th OFer.

 

Polanco & Adrianza- someone please tell the Twins that all switch hitting middle infielder with a last name that ends in a vowel aren't automatically MLB calibre players. No punch at all.

 

Escobar- seems to have proven himself average across the board. Good enough for now.

 

Gimenez- no

 

Yes. There's nothing for it but to light half of the position players on fire and ignore the pitching for another year.  

Edited August 2, 2017 by Doomtints

[Taildragger8791]

 

they tried to sign a DH this off season, and failed. Why do we feel this will be "easy" to do this off season?

 

I didn't say 'easy', just 'easiest'. We're not replacing any of the young outfielders. SS, 2B, and 3B are going to be held for players currently on the roster or in the minors. Catcher is what it is. 1B and DH are the only spots that aren't locked down by produtive veterans or young talent. Those are also the spots where more affordable offense-first players can be readily hidden. Whether or not the stars line up to make it happen...who knows.

[Willihammer]

 

Yes. There's nothing for it but to light half of the position players on fire and ignore the pitching for another year.  

Ignore the pitching, yes. That's exactly what I said.

 

This is a thread about hitting.

 

Don't troll.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I didn't say 'easy', just 'easiest'. We're not replacing any of the young outfielders. SS, 2B, and 3B are going to be held for players currently on the roster or in the minors. Catcher is what it is. 1B and DH are the only spots that aren't locked down by produtive veterans or young talent. Those are also the spots where more affordable offense-first players can be readily hidden. Whether or not the stars line up to make it happen...who knows.

 

got it. great points!

[Blackjack]

 

 

 

I don't know what this means for Mauer, and he hasn't been bad by any means, but there is so much more opportunity for offense out of the position he occupies. A 60-RBI first baseman, even with gold glove defense, just leaves too much on the table.

Joe Hometown Hero Mauer is going to be here next year unless he goes below the Mendoza line. Bet on it. What will be interesting to see is what happens when his contract is done.

 

Will he hang it up?? Or will he see the young, hopefully winning core and sign another two year contract for say $5 million a year, in hopes of finally getting to the World Series??  Will Falvine sign him for that if Joe is willing?

 

It should be interesting.

[Willihammer]

I do agree the Twins should look to upgrade at first base but Sano probably is that guy after 2018.

 

Personally I'd love to see them make a run at Moustakas this winter.

-He's young and still seems to be getting better.

-He'd be an upgrade defensively.

-After Sano, 3B is a black hole

 

For 2018 they could roll with Sano at DH half the time and subbing at 1B or 3B the other half to juggle Mauer/Sano/Moustakas.

 

And I would test the trade market for Buxton. CF is a black hole offensively. If they could get pitching in trade for Buxton then backfill CF with Cain or another vet I think that might be a good route.

Edited August 2, 2017 by Willihammer

[SF Twins Fan]

 

I do agree the Twins should look to upgrade at first base but Sano probably is that guy after 2018.

 

Personally I'd love to see them make a run at Moustakas this winter.

-He's young and still seems to be getting better.

-He'd be an upgrade defensively.

-After Sano, 3B is a black hole

 

For 2018 they could roll with Sano at DH half the time and subbing at 1B or 3B the other half to juggle Mauer/Sano/Moustakas.

 

And I would test the trade market for Buxton. CF is a black hole offensively. If they could get pitching in trade for Buxton then backfill CF with Cain or another vet I think that might be a good route.

 

 

I'd rather them spend the money it's going to take to get Moustakas on pitching.  There is no way the FO is going to go get a top quality pitcher plus spending 15 to 20 million a season on a position player. I also don't understand trading Buxton either.  Watching Granite out in CF the last two weeks makes it clear how much Buxton does on defense and no other player in the MLB comes close.  Lorenzo Cain is going to be 32 at the start of next season.  Do you really want to sign him to a 3 to 5 year deal on the decline of his career?

[DocBauer]

Via trade or FA, I'd really like to see a solid, quality 1B brought in to platoon with Mauer, DH most other days, and be the full time successor come 2019.

 

FWIW...IMO...a 60 RBI 1B like Mauer, with gold glove defense, is fine when positioned in the lineup properly. At least, if your OF and 2B provide the power and power potential available.

[nicksaviking]

 

I do agree the Twins should look to upgrade at first base but Sano probably is that guy after 2018.

 

Personally I'd love to see them make a run at Moustakas this winter.

-He's young and still seems to be getting better.

-He'd be an upgrade defensively.

-After Sano, 3B is a black hole

 

For 2018 they could roll with Sano at DH half the time and subbing at 1B or 3B the other half to juggle Mauer/Sano/Moustakas.

 

And I would test the trade market for Buxton. CF is a black hole offensively. If they could get pitching in trade for Buxton then backfill CF with Cain or another vet I think that might be a good route.

 

I like the thought, and I like the defense, but I don't think I like the player. He has a career .303 OBP which is only slightly better than his .305 this year in his career year. I'd think he's going to get paid really well for a guy who is really bad at getting on base.

[Winston Smith]

I think the secret plan is to sign Harper when he comes on the market.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I'm going to predict that Falvey will try to sign Carlos Santana to play DH next year. He's a former player of Falvey's, has the veteran leadership the front office craves and takes professional at bats. It's hard to slump when you take 90+ walks each year.

Today from MLBTR:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/08/8-impending-free-agent-hitters-with-slipping-stock.html

 

 

 

Carlos Santana, 1B, Indians | Salary: $12MM

After scuffling during the first few months of the season, the switch-hitting Santana has raked over the past several weeks and boosted his line to a respectable .249/.350/.442 in 443 PAs. One problem for his earning power, however, is that fellow soon-to-be free agent first basemen Eric Hosmer, Logan Morrison, Yonder Alonso and Lucas Duda have each enjoyed markedly better years than Santana. As such, those players could negatively affect Santana’s market as he seeks a multiyear contract in the offseason. A lack of demand for defensively limited sluggers might also prove to be a hindrance for him and others, as it was for Santana-esque players last winter. So, while Santana has been good and durable since he debuted in 2010, the 31-year-old may be in for a letdown when he gets to free agency.

 

[Willihammer]

 

I'd rather them spend the money it's going to take to get Moustakas on pitching.  There is no way the FO is going to go get a top quality pitcher plus spending 15 to 20 million a season on a position player. I also don't understand trading Buxton either.  Watching Granite out in CF the last two weeks makes it clear how much Buxton does on defense and no other player in the MLB comes close.  Lorenzo Cain is going to be 32 at the start of next season.  Do you really want to sign him to a 3 to 5 year deal on the decline of his career?

Fair. Both players certainly have warts.

How would you upgrade the hitting?

[Bill Brown69]

 

I know Joe Mauer gets blamed for everything from global warming to the Kennedy assassination, but a sub .800 OPS for a first basemen just doesn't cut it. You have a DH that doesn't hit homeruns and a second basemen that wets himself every time someone is on base. That leaves it up to Sano to produce more runs. Teams know this and pitch him accordingly forcing someone else to beat them. Other than Rosario no one has really stepped up. They need to go out and get a big bat in the off season to hit behind Sano. 

 

I said at the start of the year Mauer should bat behind Sano. Pitch around Sano with even 1 on and then Mauer draws a walk and bases loaded.

 

We just need THAT guy behind Mauer!!!!

[bluechipper]

Just looked at MLBTR's free agent power rankings from last month, and they have JD Martinez at #2 and even mentioned the possibility of a 6 year deal. I doubt that with the way teams are going away from those long deals.

 

Unfortunately, I'm guessing the likelihood of the Twins signing one of the top free agents is pretty low.

[Doomtints]

 

Twins monthly wRC+ split

 

April 90

May 107

June 85

July 97

 

In the last month, most of the hitters have been good-to-OK; Polanco, Granite, and Gimenez are the only ones who have played poorly. But Buxton was the only one who hit like a Star (166 wRC+), and he only played 10 games (35 PA). Vargas seemed to be heating up with a 134 wRC+ in 9 games (38 PA), but they sent him down on 7/17.

 

In May, the month when the offense looked pretty good, they had several guys going then, as well, and Mauer was the one really tearing it up. Of course it helped that he wasn't hurt or demoted in mid-month.

 

Right now, the Twins lineup seems to have several regulars who are fine, respectable, average-ish players, and Sano may be better than that (his 2.3 fWAR is tied for 10th-MLB at 3B; the difference between that and 15th is just 0.3 fWAR), but nobody who can sustain an elite level of play for very long.

 

Maybe another year or two of development will change that, but I dunno. After next year, they'll probably need replacements for Dozier and/or Mauer, right? And I'm not sure that anyone in the org is a lock to improve on either of them (yes, even Mauer). Maybe Falvine will have to spend some money or make a clever trade to get a legit star on this team.

 

Good analysis, and deservedly biting when it comes to the handling of Vargas.

 

There is zero reason to panic based on these numbers and write-up. Sure, adding an all-star bat or two would help, but that's always true.

 

The only thing I would say is that the Twins hitting is OK, but the run scoring isn't good enough. Panicking over the latter would break the former, however. The core of this team is still very young. The runs will come.

Edited August 2, 2017 by Doomtints

[Taildragger8791]

 

FWIW...IMO...a 60 RBI 1B like Mauer, with gold glove defense, is fine when positioned in the lineup properly. At least, if your OF and 2B provide the power and power potential available.

 

Unfortunately, our OF doesn't provide much power or have the potential for it. The most you can reasonably ask for is 15-20 HRs each from these guys, maybe a few more down the road in peak years. Dozier has power but it's way too inconsistent and mostly shows up in empty base situations (only driven in 2 runs besides himself on homeruns, both times it was Chris Gimenez oddly enough). He's stated he doesn't want to hit middle of the order so he's not really compensating for Mauer's and our DH's below average production.

 

If this team is going to take a step forward offensively next year they'll have to address 1B/DH, reducing Mauer's playing time significantly. He'll make a fine parttime player, backup, and bench bat while he rides out the final year of his contract.

[yarnivek1972]

Via trade or FA, I'd really like to see a solid, quality 1B brought in to platoon with Mauer, DH most other days, and be the full time successor come 2019.

 

FWIW...IMO...a 60 RBI 1B like Mauer, with gold glove defense, is fine when positioned in the lineup properly. At least, if your OF and 2B provide the power and power potential available.

Really? I must have missed the World Series the Twins were in with Doug Mientkiewicz at first. You need power and run production from positions that should provide it. Getting it elsewhere also is what seperates good teams from elite teams. Edited August 2, 2017 by yarnivek1972

[KirbyDaisy]

"From where I'm sitting, the league has figured out Kepler. He's a very good fastball hitter but can't hit a breaking ball to save his life, just like Buxton (although he can't hit fastballs either). Ditto Sano. If these are going to be "core" players for the next 5 years, they need to figure that out. Maybe they need to replace Rowson."

 

Remember Torri Hunter had the same problem but the twins stuck with him and he became very good.  Sano, Kepler and Buxton are young.  Let's be patient.

[nicksaviking]

 

Today from MLBTR:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/08/8-impending-free-agent-hitters-with-slipping-stock.html

 

Carlos Santana, 1B, Indians | Salary: $12MM
After scuffling during the first few months of the season, the switch-hitting Santana has raked over the past several weeks and boosted his line to a respectable .249/.350/.442 in 443 PAs. One problem for his earning power, however, is that fellow soon-to-be free agent first basemen Eric Hosmer, Logan Morrison, Yonder Alonso and Lucas Duda have each enjoyed markedly better years than Santana. As such, those players could negatively affect Santana’s market as he seeks a multiyear contract in the offseason. A lack of demand for defensively limited sluggers might also prove to be a hindrance for him and others, as it was for Santana-esque players last winter. So, while Santana has been good and durable since he debuted in 2010, the 31-year-old may be in for a letdown when he gets to free agency.

 

What do you mean negatively affect his market, that sounds positive to me!

 

Oh, from Santana's perspective, yeah sucks for him.

[SF Twins Fan]

 

Fair. Both players certainly have warts.

How would you upgrade the hitting?

 

I don't think anything needs to happen in CF.  Buxton has less than 700 PA in the MLB and other than the first 15 games of the season is doing fine.  He needs to get his SLG % into the .400's, which in turn will increase his OPS into the mid .700s  Carlos Santana to me would be the best option.  He's going to get a decent contract, probably 3 years at $8 - $10 million per, is a switch hitter and can play some 1st base in a pinch.  But what about Seth Smith?  He's a lefty but has put up solid numbers and would be a cheaper option, which would allow the FO to spend more money on the pitching staff.

 

There are a lot of left handed RF / 1B / DH but I'd assume they will all get $15 million plus a season. Those players include Hosmer, Mouse, JD, Alonso, Morrison and Bruce

[Winston Smith]

 

"From where I'm sitting, the league has figured out Kepler. He's a very good fastball hitter but can't hit a breaking ball to save his life, just like Buxton (although he can't hit fastballs either). Ditto Sano. If these are going to be "core" players for the next 5 years, they need to figure that out. Maybe they need to replace Rowson."

 

Have you tried sitting someplace else?

[Mike Sixel]

The Twins have room for 30MM more in spending, and mauer comes off the books in a year......there should be no budget constraints.

 

Also, Santiago is likely gone. Also, Gimenez can be replaced with Garver. Also, Belisle and Breslow with rookies. Also Gibson with a rookie. 

 

So, ya, if they want a SP and a DH, there is plenty of room....plenty.

[Willihammer]

 

I don't think anything needs to happen in CF.  Buxton has less than 700 PA in the MLB and other than the first 15 games of the season is doing fine.  He needs to get his SLG % into the .400's, which in turn will increase his OPS into the mid .700s  Carlos Santana to me would be the best option.  He's going to get a decent contract, probably 3 years at $8 - $10 million per, is a switch hitter and can play some 1st base in a pinch.  But what about Seth Smith?  He's a lefty but has put up solid numbers and would be a cheaper option, which would allow the FO to spend more money on the pitching staff.

 

There are a lot of left handed RF / 1B / DH but I'd assume they will all get $15 million plus a season. Those players include Hosmer, Mouse, JD, Alonso, Morrison and Bruce

Santana makes some sense. Would he be much of an upgrade over Grossman tho?

Smith being a lefty corner OF would make Rosario or Kepler redundant. What do you do with them?