Article: Twins Need Sagging Bats To Rev It Up

[Nick Nelson]

Minnesota's decline from early surprise to deadline seller, which began in earnest back in June but culminated last week, can be traced to many causes. Pitching is, of course, tops among them – the Twins rank near the bottom of the league in run prevention, again.

 

But we knew all along that making a go of it this year would require the lineup to perform at a high level and make up for a mediocre-at-best staff. And the way the hitters have failed to rise to that challenge is far more disappointing (and concerning) in my mind.Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have put their plans to replenish the pitching pipeline into action, adding several young arms in recent weeks, but the Twins system now leans lopsidedly in that direction. That's because the top talents have, by and large, already graduated.

 

Nick Gordon (AA) is now the only position player prospect among our preseason Top 10 who is currently above A-ball.

 

Mitch Garver (AAA), Daniel Palka (AAA), Zack Granite (MLB) and LaMonte Wade (AA) were in the Top 20, but none project as star hitters or even necessarily as big-league starters.

 

The Twins are going to need to rely primarily on the core currently in place to carry them forward. It's a young group – youngest in the American League, in fact – so growing pains are expected, but you would hope they'd collectively be gelling right now.

 

They're not. An offense that seemed dynamic on paper, and often looked the part early on, has been woefully unexplosive for several weeks. The Twins haven't scored more than six runs in a game since July 7th, and that doesn't really fly in today's MLB, especially when your pitching staff is crummy.

 

Eddie Rosario is having a nice year, but he is essentially the only member of Minnesota's offensive core riding any kind of momentum into the final two months. We talked last week about the struggles Miguel Sano, Max Kepler and Joe Mauer have been going through lately. Brian Dozier has taken a step back from his prodigious 2016. Jorge Polanco has been a disaster at the plate for most of the season. Byron Buxton certainly hasn't turned any kind of corner as we had hoped.

 

Almost everywhere you look, Twins hitters are failing to take the kinds of steps forward this club desperately needs them to. That isn't good, because the rebuild currently taking place is completely reliant on these players. Even if things come together exceptionally well on the pitching side and Minnesota moves from the bottom of the pack to the middle next year, a powerful offense needs to be the differentiator in making them a true contender.

 

Lately, that unit has been anything but. So from my view, the lineup's ability to get on track and finish strong will be the decisive factor in determining how confident Twins fans can feel in the club to make a legitimate run in 2018.

 

While there's reason for confidence regarding the organization's pitching pipeline, and the front office's ability to keep supplementing it, there's not much they can realistically do on the offensive side. The building blocks are already in place. Will they provide enough support?

 

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[Winston Smith]

Players aren't getting any better so likely a big turnover in the coaching staff this winter.

[frightwig]

Twins monthly wRC+ split

 

April 90

May 107

June 85

July 97

 

In the last month, most of the hitters have been good-to-OK; Polanco, Granite, and Gimenez are the only ones who have played poorly. But Buxton was the only one who hit like a Star (166 wRC+), and he only played 10 games (35 PA). Vargas seemed to be heating up with a 134 wRC+ in 9 games (38 PA), but they sent him down on 7/17.

 

In May, the month when the offense looked pretty good, they had several guys going then, as well, and Mauer was the one really tearing it up. Of course it helped that he wasn't hurt or demoted in mid-month.

 

Right now, the Twins lineup seems to have several regulars who are fine, respectable, average-ish players, and Sano may be better than that (his 2.3 fWAR is tied for 10th-MLB at 3B; the difference between that and 15th is just 0.3 fWAR), but nobody who can sustain an elite level of play for very long.

 

Maybe another year or two of development will change that, but I dunno. After next year, they'll probably need replacements for Dozier and/or Mauer, right? And I'm not sure that anyone in the org is a lock to improve on either of them (yes, even Mauer). Maybe Falvine will have to spend some money or make a clever trade to get a legit star on this team.

[Monkeypaws]

What are the flaws in Garver's game that suggest he projects as a backup?

[Rosterman]

Mauer batting cleanup.

 

Let's put together a lineup and stay with it.

 

Is Buxton or Granite leadoff material?

 

Where to bat Sano.

 

The Twins seriously lack a designated hitter (let's try Escobar or Rosario in that spot - only kidding)

 

Two hitting coaches and Vavra. Pickler doing what he does. Molitor one of baseball's best. You can call on Oliva and Carew.

 

What is not working here.

[Brandon]

I think getting Buxton to a .750 or so OPS will make a big difference and we do seem to be short a hitter like a .270 with 25+ HR DH. Kepler could improve a little and i think that would be enough for our line up.

[Tommygun921]

By the end of the year if guess the Twins will have had about 150 different lineups. Need some consistency. And like mentioned above. They have multiple hitting/ex hitting coaches on the staff. Over the past, I don't know how many years, I can't remember seeing many players​ make significant improvement. Only Berrios comes to mind. Could be scary if the hitters don't have a turn around to match up with what COULD​ be better pitching on the way.

[JaleelWhite FanClub]

 

What are the flaws in Garver's game that suggest he projects as a backup?

 

I'm confused by this as well. This is the third or fourth article over the last week or so that has really downplayed Garver's potential. And the reader reaction has followed suit.

 

As I recall, Garver's been looked at as the hopeful heir apparent to the Twins starting catcher spot for a few seasons now. His stats this year at AAA, I would think, would do nothing but excite a ton of people and prove all the hype he's received previously.

 

But for some reason everyone is all-of-a-sudden saying "Meh, he's probably just a backup or platoon candidate with the Twins." Especially with the lack of high position player prospects, Garver should come with a ton of hype.

 

I don't get it. Someone help me understand.

[Tomj14]

 

What are the flaws in Garver's game that suggest he projects as a backup?

My guess is that he will be 27 prior to the start of next season and his career minor league OPS is .782 and only 2 of his 6 minor league years he has shown any power.

His minor league stats (at the same age) look pretty similar to Chris Giménez.

 

Now I have hope he will have a better career, but...

[Nick Nelson]

 

What are the flaws in Garver's game that suggest he projects as a backup?

I didn't say that. Only that we can't confidently pencil him in as a future MLB starter. 

I'm certainly on board with calling him up and beginning to make that determination now though. What's the hold-up?

[SF Twins Fan]

The spots in the lineup the Twins need more production from are CF, SS, C and DH. If you remove the first 15 games of the season for Buxton where he had 4 hits in 49 at bats he's has a .250 BA, .328 OBP, .356 SLG and a .683 OPS. If he can increase his overall numbers to get his OPS to .750 I think everyone would be happy with that production based on the elite defense he provides.

 

SS has been a real disappointment this year. Polanco looked great the first month or two but has drastically fallen down. If Gordon is still in the organization next season he might be able to come up mid way through the season.  

 

As a few other's pointed out above Garver could have a big impact on this lineup as he's an ideal platoon with Castro. I'm hoping Gimenez is moved in the next week to two weeks and Garver is given plenty of playing time for the last six weeks of the season.

 

DH is the one position I'd like to see the Twins spend money on in the offseason. Get someone who has a high OBP and is going to hit 25 + homeruns.

 

A bench next season of Granite, Garver, Escobar and another FA could be a strong bench.

Edited August 2, 2017 by SF Twins Fan

[Doomtints]

Seems the familiar end-of-season blues is hitting the Twins again.

 

We can hope they snap out of it and don't completely throw in the towel as the season winds down. Both teams ahead of them are on losing streaks. If the players are upset, there is time and space enough to prove their masters were wrong. The division is by no means decided. At the very least, the players can make things interesting.

Edited August 2, 2017 by Doomtints

[Loosey]

 

By the end of the year if guess the Twins will have had about 150 different lineups. Need some consistency. And like mentioned above. They have multiple hitting/ex hitting coaches on the staff. Over the past, I don't know how many years, I can't remember seeing many players​ make significant improvement. Only Berrios comes to mind. Could be scary if the hitters don't have a turn around to match up with what COULD​ be better pitching on the way.

I wonder if having some many hitting coaches on staff is causing the problem.  Coach A says, do this. Coach B, says do that. Coach C says, do what Coach A told you but change this part to that.  At some point they need to let these young guys play baseball and be comfortable.

[Tommygun921]

Twins definitely need someone to fill the DH role who is more of a DH. I like Grossman but he doesn't provide enough power to justify being a DH. More consistent production from C, CF and SS would go along ways. Hitting like pitching is contagious. Easy for a whole team to follow suit when players are struggling​.

[Tommygun921]

I certainly agree, Loosey. Have seen a few players leave MN only to have success when yhe new coaching staff just let's them play ball. I believe it was JJ Hardy who when hr went to the O's was spraying the ball around during batting practice and the coaching staff told him to basically " just hit the dang thing."

[Mike Sixel]

i still don't understand why Garver is in AAA, and not MN right now.

 

edit: well, SD right now

Edited August 2, 2017 by Mike Sixel

[bluechipper]

 

Twins definitely need someone to fill the DH role who is more of a DH. I like Grossman but he doesn't provide enough power to justify being a DH. More consistent production from C, CF and SS would go along ways. Hitting like pitching is contagious. Easy for a whole team to follow suit when players are struggling​.

JD Martinez for 4 years $80M is my ideal player to fill the DH spot next year. The offense has been a real disappointment this year, and a power threat needs to be added.

[Willihammer]

Yeah the offense is still a ways off. By OPS, our best regular (Sano) would be

 

-best on BOS

-2nd best on KC

-3rd best on: NYY, CLE, MIL, ARI

-4th best on LAD, WAS, HOU, TBR

 

Realistically the Twins need to find ~2 more bats who produce at a ~.900 OPS level, without sacrificing too much defensively.

[gunnarthor]

Part of the problem is Kepler and Buxton haven't really turned into dangerous hitters yet. I like both of them a lot but Kepler only has a 96 OPS+. For a corner OF, that's pretty bad. Buxton's struggles have been talked about enough.

 

I would like to see the Twins get a big bat in FA although I don't think the FO automatically will. But bats like Carlos Santana, JD Martinez, Eric Hosmer, Logan Morrison (finally having his big year) would be available and perhaps affordable.

[Tomj14]

 

i still don't understand why Garver is in AAA, and not MN right now.

 

edit: well, SD right now

I agree he should be but my guess is because Polanco is out of options.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I agree he should be but my guess is because Polanco is out of options.

 

So go with less RPs, and shuttle them back and forth between AAA then.....

 

Realistically? Grossman is not part of a winning roster. I'd consider DFAing him right now. He can't play defense, and his OPS is driven too much by the walk and single to be truly valuable from a DH/bad corner OF.

 

Get rid of the chaffe....

[diehardtwinsfan]

I have to wonder if the FO will give Park another shot. He's been pretty hot in Rochester of late and given Vargas's lack of production, that might not be an option to try out for the remainder of the season given that he's healthy.

[nicksaviking]

I'm going to predict that Falvey will try to sign Carlos Santana to play DH next year. He's a former player of Falvey's, has the veteran leadership the front office craves and takes professional at bats. It's hard to slump when you take 90+ walks each year.

[Willihammer]

From where I'm sitting, the league has figured out Kepler. He's a very good fastball hitter but can't hit a breaking ball to save his life, just like Buxton (although he can't hit fastballs either). Ditto Sano. If these are going to be "core" players for the next 5 years, they need to figure that out. Maybe they need to replace Rowson.

 

Its pretty clear through 69 PAs that Granite's a Revere type 4th outfielder. No XBH power at all,

 

Vargas turned 27 yesterday. The guy has the most awkward over-his-front-foot downward tomahawk swing I think I've ever seen from a MLB player. Cut him.

 

Park is a bust.

 

Castro's shouldn't be hitting any higher than 9.

 

Grossman doesn't have enough power or defense to start regularly. Man without a position, but maybe enough to stick around as a 5th OFer.

 

Polanco & Adrianza- someone please tell the Twins that all switch hitting middle infielder with a last name that ends in a vowel aren't automatically MLB calibre players. No punch at all.

 

Escobar- seems to have proven himself average across the board. Good enough for now.

 

Gimenez- no

Edited August 2, 2017 by Willihammer

[gunnarthor]

 

I'm going to predict that next year Falvey will try to sign Carlos Santana to play DH next year. He's a former player of Falvey, has the veteran leadership the front office craves and takes professional at bats. It's hard to slump when you take 90+ walks each year.

Yeah he makes sense but remember that Levine is our GM so maybe he takes another run at Napoli.

[Vanimal46]

 

I'm going to predict that Falvey will try to sign Carlos Santana to play DH next year. He's a former player of Falvey, has the veteran leadership the front office craves and takes professional at bats. It's hard to slump when you take 90+ walks each year.

 

Sounds like a good fit to me. 

[Vanimal46]

 

Yeah he makes sense but remember that Levine is our GM so maybe he takes another run at Napoli.

 

Let's hope not. Just judging his stat line, the decline is happening quickly. 

[gunnarthor]

 

Let's hope not. Just judging his stat line, the decline is happening quickly. 

it was sarcasm.

[Vanimal46]

 

it was sarcasm.

 

Whoops! The radar wasn't up... It's been a weird morning. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

From where I'm sitting, the league has figured out Kepler. He's a very good fastball hitter but can't hit a breaking ball to save his life, just like Buxton (although he can't hit fastballs either). Ditto Sano. If these are going to be "core" players for the next 5 years, they need to figure that out. Maybe they need to replace Rowson.

 

Its pretty clear through 69 PAs that Granite's a Revere type 4th outfielder. No XBH power at all,

 

Vargas turned 27 yesterday. The guy has the most awkward over-his-front-foot downward tomahawk swing I think I've ever seen from a MLB player. Cut him.

 

Park is a bust.

 

Castro's shouldn't be hitting any higher than 9.

 

Grossman doesn't have enough power or defense to start regularly. Man without a position, but maybe enough to stick around as a 5th OFer.

 

Polanco & Adrianza- someone please tell the Twins that all switch hitting middle infielder with a last name that ends in a vowel aren't automatically MLB calibre players. No punch at all.

 

Escobar- seems to have proven himself average across the board. Good enough for now.

 

Gimenez- no

long live Joe Mauer!