Article: Rule 5 Addition Discussion

[Pitz]

I may be wrong about this because I don't fully understand the rule 5 eligibility parameters, but doesn't Diaz have another year before he needs to be added?

 

According to his MiLB page, he signed in November of 2013, so wouldn't that put him in the same boat as Palacios and Arraez?

 

If he is eligible this year, I would tend to agree with others who have pointed out that it seems unlikely that a team would give a 25-man spot to a guy who hasn't played above low A. 

 

Edit: I also see an article from Ben Badler dated July 2, 2013 saying that the Twins signed Lewin Diaz. So, that should help muddy the water. 

 

I was wondering if/how much these stipulations effect international signings. Seems that teams would want to wait until later to sign the players - so they could agree to terms but wait until the fall to officially sign. On the other hand, I suppose players/agents could push to sign earlier to try to get on the 40-man earlier. 

[Tibs]

Considering the Twins haven't developed a good SP for themselves outside of Jose Berrios in years, there is absolutely no way I don't protect Thorpe, Slegers, and Stewart. Say what you want about Stewart, but he has yet to fail a level and is a former #4 overall pick. There is no way someone wouldn't take a chance on him.

 

I'm not sure how I feel about adding Lewin Diaz this early. It looks like a Jorge Polanco situation where at least his first two option years will be used in the low minors or AA. That sucks for Polanco because he doesn't have the opportunity to go back down to AAA to get some work in when he clearly needs it. If the FO thinks Diaz absolutely gets taken, then I'm fine with him being protected.

[Dman]

If I was San Diego or some other team that is a likely loser next year I would love to grab another teams top ten prospect in the rule 5 draft.  Super easy way to gain a young controllable player for nothing.  Who cares if Diaz takes up a bench spot all year they are a losing team anyway.  When the Twins were super bad I would have hoped they would do something like that.

[drivlikejehu]

Diaz isn't good enough for a team to stash him like that.

[Pitz]

 

If I was San Diego or some other team that is a likely loser next year I would love to grab another teams top ten prospect in the rule 5 draft.  Super easy way to gain a young controllable player for nothing.  Who cares if Diaz takes up a bench spot all year they are a losing team anyway.  When the Twins were super bad I would have hoped they would do something like that.

Not necessarily disagreeing with you, but consideration also has to be given to how it would impact the player's development. Roster constraints also impact the decisions the team has to make about other players as well. 

[Steve Lein]

Diaz is in the same situation Kepler was a few years ago. (I even asked BA about him back then) Kepler was [added but I don't know why] anyone would add a low-A 1B/DH to their major league roster at this point. 

 

Not even sure Diaz would be in my top 10 right now and Kepler definitely was.

 

Edit: Kepler actually was put on the 40-man that year, but my point still stands.

[Vanimal46]

 

For spots opening, with the 60-day DL guys included, and Recker excluded, we have 41 rostered guys right now.

5 pending FA:
Belisle
Colon
Gee
Perkins
Santiago

4 possible nontenders in arbitration:
Gibson
Pressly
Gimenez
Grossman

9 potential cuts (not all of these guys will be cut, of course, but some among this group will be):
Boshers
Busenitz
Chargois
Hildenberger
O'Rourke
Randy Rosario
Turley
Palka
Vargas

And of course Hughes as a big wild card.

Then you need to factor in any MLB FA they might sign this winter. Probably at least 3.

 

Thanks for putting this together spy! Based off your list, I would let all 5 pending FA's walk. On the arbitration list, I would give Pressly one more chance (on a very short leash) and tender Grossman. There's still a need for a high on-base guy in the lineup and he fills that need at a fairly cheap rate. 

 

On the potential cuts list, I would bring up Turley for the bullpen right now so they can decide between him and Boshers for next season. Chargois is my dark horse DFA... 3 seasons lost to arm injuries. Enough is enough. I wouldn't have any issue letting O'Rourke, Palka, and Vargas go either. 

[Dman]

 

Diaz isn't good enough for a team to stash him like that.

I totally get that he would be in way, way over his head but how much do rule 5 guys play anyway?  We limped along with Haley most of this year and he barely played.  If you are a rebuilding team I don't know why you wouldn't consider it.

 

I will say most of the position players taken have been above A ball and SS, CF or Catchers.  I guess there must be more that goes into it than just grabbing a good prospect.

[Vanimal46]

 

I totally get that he would be in way, way over his head but how much do rule 5 guys play anyway?  We limped along with Haley most of this year and he barely played.  If you are a rebuilding team I don't know why you wouldn't consider it.

 

I will say most of the position players taken have been above A ball and SS, CF or Catchers.  I guess there must be more that goes into it than just grabbing a good prospect.

 

Even if you're a terrible team, you'd still want your Rule 5 pick to have some sort of positional flexibility or play a premium position like SS, CF, or C. I don't know if you would want an over his head 1B only on roster all season long. That's a tough pill to swallow even for a 90+ loss team. 

Edited August 1, 2017 by Vanimal46

[Mike Sixel]

Every year people say the decisions will be hard, and every year almost no one of meaning is taken. Since MLB changed the rules, almost no one of value has been taken across all of MLB in rule V.

 

that said:

100% Thorpe and Stewart are protected. 100%. Thorpe and Stewart might be ready to be a MLB starter next year at some point.

Edited August 1, 2017 by Mike Sixel

[jorgenswest]

I don't think there will be any tough decisions. The Twins have plenty of space to clear on the 40. They won't lose anyone with upside.

[Vanimal46]

 

I don't think there will be any tough decisions. The Twins have plenty of space to clear on the 40. They won't lose anyone with upside.

 

This is rational and I agree 100%. But we've been here long enough to know there will be threads created over the winter raising pitchforks for losing (insert player name here) to the Rule 5 draft. 

[twinssouth]

I'll take a shot at this. I see as many as 9 taken off the 40 man (seems we have a lot of guys on DL with highly questionable futures, I.e. Hughes, Perkins and guys that aren't contributing).

 

My givens are:

Gonsalves

Littrell

Curtiss

Reed

Thorpe

 

On the fence with Bard and Stewart. I'd call up Bard and see what he can do and then decide. As for Stewart, oh boy. Look at his last start; he goes 6 innings on 93 pitches but 60% were strikes but he still manages to walk 4 batters. Yet, he didn't get bombed, as he gave up 7 hits but still managed 6 SO's and ultimately got the win. The kid must have some Irish in him because he does seem lucky when he pitches. So as one fellow Irishman to another, I guess I'd keep him.

 

The rest, tough calls , good players but I'd leave spots open for trades and FA's. As for Burdi, I see his situation play out like Z Jones (another fireballer) where Brewers took him and returned him to the Twins this past Spring.

 

As always, great job Seth.

[Oldgoat_MN]

Great lists Seth. Thanks for this thread.

 

I would absolutely leave Diaz unprotected and add Thorpe to the 1st tier. He will only be 22 next year. Gotta believe he would get taken. I suspect he would do better for a team in the mop up roll than Haley did for us this year.

 

I, too, would let the five pending FA that spycake identified walk (Belisle, Colon, Gee, Perkins, Santiago).

I will also have a breakdown if they tender a contract to Gimenez. With Garver posting an OPS of >.850 in AAA they need to bring him up.

[Steve Lein]

Guys I would add (in no particular order):

 

1. Gonsalves
2. Rodriguez
3. Littell
4. Reed
5. Curtiss
6. Thorpe
7. Stewart

 

Not sure all of them will be, but I suspect the Twins are gonna lose a guy or two any way it shakes out.

[Rosterman]

Good list. I don't really see anyone holding down a major league job in a lot of the players you mentioned (like Thorpe or Kohl Stewart).

 

Mason already went thru waivers and could've been claimed by any team with a 40-man spot. But somehow he made in thru. Go figure?

 

If anything, I would use the current open spots to look at players on the fringe, like Baxendale, Hurlbut, Slegers and what they do in their brief looksees would determine if they stay or go. Are they also six year minor league free agents that might jsts walk anyways?

 

The Twins have to be really careful adding folks like Diaz, too far away...yet can they be lost in the minor league portion of the draft?

 

Looking at this season, we already have Vielma, Romero, Jorge taking up space and not really ready for the majors, and we can argue if they will be major league ready before any of the added candidates from this off-season.

 

The Twins could have up to 14 roster spots available between now and the beginning of spring training, if they really wanted to be hard-lined. 

 

And the newcomers will get some consideration, although what is the potential for any of them staying on a major league roster (unless a Wild Card like the Padres come into play and grab three rokkies to keep on the roster and in their system). That is where you have to think long and hard about Littell and Moya, for example.

 

But you realize how few candidates the Twins have for 40-man spots in the offensive part of the roster. Very few.

 

And looks like we may be saying goodbye to high draft picks Levi Michael and Travis Harrison.

 

And, hey, weren't we talking that our bullpen, by now, would be people like Reed, Burdi, Cederoth, Bard, Zach Jones, Chargois, Melotakis. As early as this season? How the world of prospects can change........

[Steve Lein]

 

The Twins have to be really careful adding folks like Diaz, too far away...yet can they be lost in the minor league portion of the draft?

 

Check out the link in my post above about Kepler. This is explained in depth there.

 

If Diaz isn't on the 40-man he assuredly will be on the Triple-A reserve roster, meaning he can't be selected in minor league phase.

 

Lots of A-ball top prospects are on the Triple-A reserve roster for this reason (which is a 38-man list). Also, just as an FYI, the reserve rosters are not published to the public.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Burdi is a tough one. Could he be added and then put on the 60 day DL?

Also is it possible that the Braves rejected him in part thinking he might be a potential rule 5 pickup thereby essentially adding another player to the trade? A very long shot I know.

60 day DL is only in season. So you would lose his spot all off season. He's a 2019 guy at best, I'd try to sneak him through the rule 5 draft.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

For spots opening, with the 60-day DL guys included, and Recker excluded, we have 41 rostered guys right now.

 

5 pending FA:

Belisle

Colon

Gee

Perkins

Santiago

 

4 possible nontenders in arbitration:

Gibson

Pressly

Gimenez

Grossman

 

9 potential cuts (not all of these guys will be cut, of course, but some among this group will be):

Boshers

Busenitz

Chargois

Hildenberger

O'Rourke

Randy Rosario

Turley

Palka

Vargas

 

And of course Hughes as a big wild card.

 

Then you need to factor in any MLB FA they might sign this winter. Probably at least 3.

do you really think it's possible Pohlad eats 26 mil for Hughes?

 

I wouldn't have considered it, except they took on the dead contract for Garcia.

 

Man that's an expensive oopsie/extension

[bluechipper]

Kohl Stewart should be a given. He's got a 2.99 career ERA, and even in his bad current year, he's got a 3.86 ERA in AA as a 22 year old. With his stuff and previous prospect status, he would almost surely get taken.

[Otto von Ballpark]

If there is a roster crunch, I wouldn't lose a lot of sleep keeping Burdi unprotected. 2 major injuries and a couple minor ones before he even reaches the majors. Just don't see him as much of a long term asset.

Agreed, although look at it this way: how would you feel if the Twins grabbed a Burdi from someone else in Rule 5? But I agree with the others too, that there shouldn't be much of a meaningful crunch.

[drjim]

Agreed, although look at it this way: how would you feel if the Twins grabbed a Burdi from someone else in Rule 5? But I agree with the others too, that there shouldn't be much of a meaningful crunch.

My opinion of reliever prospects has shifted quite a bit.

 

I'd be fine with the flyer, like I am with any rule 5 guy, but would have minimal expectation with a guy with that injury history.

[Taildragger8791]

 

do you really think it's possible Pohlad eats 26 mil for Hughes?

I wouldn't have considered it, except they took on the dead contract for Garcia.

Man that's an expensive oopsie/extension

 

He's eating that money either way. The only decision now is whether he wants to further sandbag his team with an ineffective player eating up a roster spot, and add on the potential expense of losing a future cheap young player.

[Old Twins Cap]

Always fun to speculate but as in years' past, the Twins scrap pile is not where good teams go to become more competitive.

 

We may love our guys, but other teams don't.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

 

He's eating that money either way. The only decision now is whether he wants to further sandbag his team with an ineffective player eating up a roster spot, and add on the potential expense of losing a future cheap young player.

agreed, but I have doubts that Pohlad could be convinced of that argument. Cutting him means there's no chance of recuperating any of that value. Maybe the odds are low, but not impossible

[jun]

I think Dereck Rodriguez, Kohl Stewart, Mason Melotakis will not be added to the 40-man roster, David Hurlbut though should be added due to his performance in AAA.

[Thrylos]

This is about 3.5 months premature     Lots of transactions until then and I suspect that some of the names in the list will not be with the Twins. 

 

BA called Gabriel Moya "arguably the most dominant reliever in the minors".  To me he is automatic.   Reed is kinda of a borderline guy.  I'd put him behind Burdi and Bard at this point.  And behind Curtiss and Moya.   The previous administration loved him, but the decision makers will be different by then.

Have to factor the upcoming changes in the FO, as well.   That's why I am thinking that it is way too early to even think about this.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

 

This is about 3.5 months premature     Lots of transactions until then and I suspect that some of the names in the list will not be with the Twins. 

 

BA called Gabriel Moya "arguably the most dominant reliever in the minors".  To me he is automatic.   Reed is kinda of a borderline guy.  I'd put him behind Burdi and Bard at this point.  And behind Curtiss and Moya.   The previous administration loved him, but the decision makers will be different by then.

Have to factor the upcoming changes in the FO, as well.   That's why I am thinking that it is way too early to even think about this.

predicting more of the old regime leaving?

[zenser]

Burdi was lights out before his injury and was probably nearing a promotion.  I think he gets added.  I know it would be risky exposing him and I would hate to lose him for nothing.

[snap4birds]

 

agreed, but I have doubts that Pohlad could be convinced of that argument. Cutting him means there's no chance of recuperating any of that value. Maybe the odds are low, but not impossible

Wasn't there a story confirming that they have insurance on Hughes?  Wouldn't Pohlad be saving money if he retired due to injury?  I'd kind of think this is the most likely scenario at this point.....