Article: Twins Trade Kintzler To Nationals

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

The problem is the position players developed a lot faster than the front office expected. The pitching now sticks out like a sore thumb, and it was a liability even last year. For a rebuild, ya gotta try to keep the two pipelines reasonably synced or you risk perpetual rebuilds.

The Twins are going to have to open up the pocketbook to address the pitching problem and a lot of us recognized this before the season started. I don't buy the idea that the new front office didn't know this for one second, I think they were caught off-guard by the huge improvement on defense and continued improvement on offense.  They don't need to break the bank, they don't need to overpay, even as little as two average relievers and nothing more would have made a huge difference. I'm betting that if they could do the offseason over again, they would have picked up a couple of arms.

 

I think you're right at least this year, but they would have opened the pocket book last year and gotten very little to show for it.

 

As Brock has noted, that was different for relief pitchers.

[kab21]

 

The problem is the position players developed a lot faster than the front office expected. The pitching now sticks out like a sore thumb, and it was a liability even last year. For a rebuild, ya gotta try to keep the two pipelines reasonably synced or you risk perpetual rebuilds.

The Twins are going to have to open up the pocketbook to address the pitching problem and a lot of us recognized this before the season started. I don't buy the idea that the new front office didn't know this for one second, I think they were caught off-guard by the huge improvement on defense and continued improvement on offense.  They don't need to break the bank, they don't need to overpay, even as little as two average relievers and nothing more would have made a huge difference. I'm betting that if they could do the offseason over again, they would have picked up a couple of arms.

If you are talking about RP'ers then they don't need to break the bank (smaller return on investment though) but if you are talking about SP then yes they need to break the bank (>40M contracts). Gibson and Santiago level SP (not in arbitration) are 10-30M contracts in FA. 

I think we are seeing the Twins sync'ing up the two pipelines by trading off a couple of not very important (impending FA's) players at the deadline.

 

What else would you have suggested? They tried to trade off Dozier but couldn't find a deal worthwhile. Some are blasting the Twins for missing on two top 6 picks so do you think they should have reached in the draft to pick a pitcher that they didn't like that much? What real options existed in a terrible SP FA market? Do you have any real suggestions or just 'they %$^#$^#ed up'?

[Kwak]

 

Tl;dr, the Twins should have signed better relievers. A very accurate and oft pointed out position.

...and then we would have read endless posts about how these guys were blocking the young, power arms from the upper minors.  

[Mike Sixel]

 

...and then we would have read endless posts about how these guys were blocking the young, power arms from the upper minors.  

 

so what? And really, adding 1-2 RP that weren't named Breslow would have been nice. I think almost every poster said add 1-2 legit RPs, even those of us that want young guys to get a chance.

[drivlikejehu]

 

So is the situation the same going into 2018?  2019?  It's forever hopeless?

 

"...not possible" is actually the unrealistic position to take, IMO.  Of course it's possible.  It certainly takes smarts, courage, and decisiveness.  It probably takes money.  There will certainly be some luck involved, with injuries if nothing else.

 

But I'm simply not buying "nothing could have been done."  

 

Then what? What realistic moves could the Twins have made coming off a 103-loss season that would have made the 2017 Twins a true contender, without sacrificing the future?

 

Your post is basically a more general version of the fantasy trade proposals - surely, if they were smart enough, they could have figured something out!

 

It doesn't work that way. There are 29 other teams, most or all of whom are smart. Acquiring a real advantage takes time and investment throughout every aspect of the organization.

 

Falvey can't create surplus value out of thin air. If that's your standard for a front office exec, you are going to be disappointed in every human being on earth that would serve in that role.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Then what? What realistic moves could the Twins have made coming off a 103-loss season that would have made the 2017 Twins a true contender, without sacrificing the future?

 

Your post is basically a more general version of the fantasy trade proposals - surely, if they were smart enough, they could have figured something out!

 

It doesn't work that way. There are 29 other teams, most or all of whom are smart. Acquiring a real advantage takes time and investment throughout every aspect of the organization.

 

Falvey can't create surplus value out of thin air. If that's your standard for a front office exec, you are going to be disappointed in every human being on earth that would serve in that role.

 

add 1 legit SP and 1-2 legit RPs....no one said do the impossible, chief and others are asking why not even do that, to the worst pitching the league? Seriously. He's not saying any such thing you are asking.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

add 1 legit SP and 1-2 legit RPs....no one said do the impossible, chief and others are asking why not even do that, to the worst pitching the league? Seriously. He's not saying any such thing you are asking.

 

Let's start with the lack of legit SPs on the FA market last year...

 

No one is debating the RP side of it. That one miffed a lot of us, but SPs, it's kind of hard to get a legit one when no legit ones exist.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Let's start with the lack of legit SPs on the FA market last year...

 

No one is debating the RP side of it. That one miffed a lot of us, but SPs, it's kind of hard to get a legit one when no legit ones exist.

 

agreed, not easy. And, hard to make trades in their situation. 

 

The list isn't awesome this year either, should they sit out again? Or, should they outbid the big clubs for the 2-3 good ones?

[USAFChief]

 

Then what? What realistic moves could the Twins have made coming off a 103-loss season that would have made the 2017 Twins a true contender, without sacrificing the future?

 

Your post is basically a more general version of the fantasy trade proposals - surely, if they were smart enough, they could have figured something out!

 

It doesn't work that way. There are 29 other teams, most or all of whom are smart. Acquiring a real advantage takes time and investment throughout every aspect of the organization.

 

Falvey can't create surplus value out of thin air. If that's your standard for a front office exec, you are going to be disappointed in every human being on earth that would serve in that role.

Here's a list of completed deals last offseason:  https://www.sbnation.com/mlb/2016/11/3/13470044/mlb-trade-rumors-tracker-2016-2017-offseason

 

Lots of pitchers changed hands.  The Twins are absent from the list, and I find it difficult to believe that's because they couldn't make an effort.  

 

And this list is just trades...it doesn't include FA deals.

 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

Let's start with the lack of legit SPs on the FA market last year...

 

No one is debating the RP side of it. That one miffed a lot of us, but SPs, it's kind of hard to get a legit one when no legit ones exist.

Here are the biggest SP FA contracts from last winter, everybody who got a $8 mil or better guarantee:

 

Rich Hill, 17 GS, 125 ERA+

Ivan Nova, 21 GS, 113 ERA+

Edinson Volquez, 17 GS, 97 ERA+

Jason Hammel, 21 GS, 96 ERA+

Charlie Morton, 15 GS, 105 ERA+

Bartolo Colon

Andrew Cashner, 17 GS, 133 ERA+

R.A. Dickey, 21 GS, 105 ERA+

 

I don't know how we are defining "legit" but the market seemed to correctly peg guys who could help in 2017.

[drivlikejehu]

 

Here's a list of completed deals last offseason:  https://www.sbnation.com/mlb/2016/11/3/13470044/mlb-trade-rumors-tracker-2016-2017-offseason

 

Lots of pitchers changed hands.  The Twins are absent from the list, and I find it difficult to believe that's because they couldn't make an effort.  

 

And this list is just trades...it doesn't include FA deals.

 

That's fine, but those are not clubs coming off a 103-loss season with minimal trade chips. My question is, what realistically could the Twins have done that would have made them a contender in 2017 without weakening them in future seasons?

 

I have yet to see a realistic explanation from anyone on how this was possible. 

[Twins33]

The list isn't awesome this year either, should they sit out again? Or, should they outbid the big clubs for the 2-3 good ones?

I'm in the camp where I think they should have signed 1-2 RP this past year, but was completely fine with them not signing an SP because the list was terrible. The prize last offseason was Rich Hill. I don't even remember who else was available after that because the rest of the list was so bad.

 

While the list this year isn't amazing overall, comparing it to last years list, in my opinion it is amazingly way better. Darvish, Arrieta, Cahill, Garcia, Lynn is better than only 1 decent but old guy last year. And there are a couple who can opt out.

 

They need to sign at least one SP, maybe two. I lean towards one because I want Gonsalves up, but if some serious injury happens again then they may really need that second guy.

[Twins33]

Nova was a guy I wanted, forgot that he was available so add him to Hill for me. But I still think this years list is much better or deeper (or both).

[Otto von Ballpark]

That's fine, but those are not clubs coming off a 103-loss season with minimal trade chips. My question is, what realistically could the Twins have done that would have made them a contender in 2017 without weakening them in future seasons?

 

I have yet to see a realistic explanation from anyone on how this was possible.

Did you see my list of FA SP above?

 

Forecasting contention in the offseason isn't a binary proposition, 0 or 1. There are degrees. There are a variety of moves we could have made to improve our chances for 2017 without sacrificing the future. (And if we failed to contend, they could have potentially improved our future by giving us an asset to flip like Garcia.)

[Riverbrian]

 

I'm not speaking of releasing/replacing Twins players, I'm speaking of the farm system. Garcia cost something. Are we sure the front office was ready and capable of evaluating their farm just one month into their tenure? I'm not sure they were ready at that point.

 

It's one thing to evaluate MLB players. You have loads of data and actual first-hand experience with them. MiLB players are something else entirely. Falvey and Levine would have needed to rely on the internal evaluators already in place. Would you be comfortable doing that, given how the Twins had performed over the previous five years? What if the Cards asked for Thorpe and the internal evaluators signed off on that idea?

 

Exactly

 

The POBO and GM are not sitting with a laptop making moves like we all run a fantasy baseball team. They have a staff of people just like Terry Ryan had a staff of people and to my knowledge that same staff or people is still there. 

 

I've read a lot of comments stating that Falvey/Lavine looks a lot like Terry Ryan so far. Of course they do... they have the same staff of people advising them. 

 

Anybody that walks into a new operation and shuts the support staff out might as well just starting issuing pink slips immediately because either way nothing is going to get done. 

 

I think they blew it with the bullpen free agents this off season and how they approached the bullpen was just like the Twins approached the bullpen every single year so I don't blame Falvey/Lavine yet. 

 

 

Yet is the keyword

 

This off season... if they decide to ignore the bullpen again and they decide to just keep doing what they have always done...Sign a 2nd or t3rd tier guy and call it good.... Then I will blame them because Falvey/Lavine should have made their assessments of the support staff by now. The new game plan and new tools to operate with should be in place by now. The AL Central is going to be weak next year... the Door is open... they better be ready. 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

It's one thing to evaluate MLB players. You have loads of data and actual first-hand experience with them. MiLB players are something else entirely. Falvey and Levine would have needed to rely on the internal evaluators already in place. Would you be comfortable doing that, given how the Twins had performed over the previous five years? What if the Cards asked for Thorpe and the internal evaluators signed off on that idea?

You tell them no? If Rob Antony suggested we try to talk Jason Bartlett out of retirement again, I would hope any executive -- no matter how new to the organization -- would overrule him too.

 

If you can't tell the difference between ceiling and floor (which is the only way to equate Thorpe with the guys the Braves dealt for Garcia), then you probably aren't long for the job anyway.

 

In any case, trading for Garcia was just one example. If they weren't comfortable with that or couldn't come to an agreement with St Louis, there was a whole offseason to negotiate with the FA list I posted above instead.

[Otto von Ballpark]

For that matter, one of our primary starters in spring training (Duffey) has apparently been off-limits for starting during the regular season. Even after the injuries to May, Hughes, and Santiago.

 

Now, whether that is evidence of a SP problem, or a carryover from the RP problem, the effect is pretty much the same. (Although the two look intertwined to me.) The team brought back pretty much all the exact same pitching suspects from 2016, and too few of them had much reason to expect improvement. The situation screamed for some outside help (not unlike the FO situation itself, frankly). And some such help was available at modest cost. Instead we got the bare minimum: a FA catcher and a couple warm bodies for the pen.

 

It was pretty much the pitching staff equivalent of hiring Rob Antony as full-time GM -- it could get better on its own, probably can't get much worse, but really? That's all you got to offer? You don't have any names in your rolodex better than Craig Breslow and Nick Tepesch?

Edited August 1, 2017 by spycake

[drjim]

 

For that matter, one of our primary starters in spring training (Duffey) has apparently been off-limits for starting during the regular season. Even after the injuries to May, Hughes, and Santiago.

Now, whether that is evidence of a SP problem, or a carryover from the RP problem, the effect is pretty much the same. (Although the two look intertwined to me.) The team brought back pretty much all the exact same pitching suspects from 2016, and too few of them had much reason to expect improvement. The situation screamed for some outside help (not unlike the FO situation itself, frankly). And some such help was available at modest cost. Instead we got the bare minimum: a FA catcher and a couple warm bodies for the pen.

It was pretty much the pitching staff equivalent of hiring Rob Antony as full-time GM -- it could get better on its own, probably can't get much worse, but really? That's all you got to offer? You don't have any names in your rolodex better than Craig Breslow and Nick Tepesch?

 

Is Duffey even any good?

[Otto von Ballpark]

Is Duffey even any good?

Well, this FO gave him a bunch of starts in spring training, then apparently made him the centerpiece of our 2017 bullpen plan. Seemed like an overkill investment of evaluation for a 2016 suspect, but you tell me.

[drjim]

 

Well, this FO gave him a bunch of starts in spring training, then apparently made him the centerpiece of our 2017 bullpen plan. Seemed like an overkill investment of evaluation for a 2016 suspect, but you tell me.

 

A handful of spring starts is an overkill investment of evaluation?

 

And he was the 5th/6th reliever (depending on how you rate Breslow) coming out of camp. Seems about right, and I wouldn't be opposed to him having the same role next year out of camp.

[yarnivek1972]

So you think that is a lock.... for a team with no pitching and a -72 run differential with 59 games left?

 

Let's see, to win 74 games this season now, they would have to go 24-35. I have seen swoons by this team way worse than that. During the Dodger series, I kept telling myself it is the Dodgers.... everyone is losing to them and getting swept by them. But them I watched a pouting Dozier strike out 5 times in one game, Sano setting the MLB record for striking out, Taylor imploding..... hell, the whole pitching staff..... and do the same deer in the headlights against Oakland! They duplicated the futility against a last place team!.....

 

.....and a 24-35 record the rest of the season is sure not a lock in my eyes. Trade the whole damn bullpen if they want.......

The Twins won 13 games after August 8 last year.

[Otto von Ballpark]

A handful of spring starts is an overkill investment of evaluation?

 

And he was the 5th/6th reliever (depending on how you rate Breslow) coming out of camp. Seems about right, and I wouldn't be opposed to him having the same role next year out of camp.

Not the handful of spring starts alone -- but BOTH pulling double duty as starter depth and supposedly one of our top relievers. That was the clear early result of the FO's plan, whether they intended it or not.

 

If they weren't committed to him as a starter -- they should have moved him down that chart over the winter. If they weren't committed to him as a reliever -- they should have added something better than Belisle and Breslow. If they weren't committed to him in either role quite yet, they could have added a SP and a RP. Still would have had plenty of opportunity to experiment/evaluate him this season, without handicapping the team.

[Otto von Ballpark]

This isn't to get into a great debate about Duffey specifically, but it is a general illustration of how the widely acknowledged RP problem is related to the SP problem.

 

And moreover, on the frequent defense of "the new FO needed a year to evaluate" -- really? In regards to the MLB roster? Duffey, for example, was not some great unknown. Our new FO wasn't new to the sport of baseball. Not to say cut him, but it should be expected that the new FO could reasonably forecast his future without needing to reserve spots for him on both the SP and RP depth charts that are meaningful to our contention status.

[Dman]

 

This isn't to get into a great debate about Duffey specifically, but it is a general illustration of how the widely acknowledged RP problem is related to the SP problem.

And moreover, on the frequent defense of "the new FO needed a year to evaluate" -- really? In regards to the MLB roster? Duffey, for example, was not some great unknown. Our new FO wasn't new to the sport of baseball. Not to say cut him, but it should be expected that the new FO could reasonably forecast his future without needing to reserve spots for him on both the SP and RP depth charts that are meaningful to our contention status.

Through spring training I thought it was neck and neck between Duffy and Meija for the 5th starter role.  

 

http://twinsdaily.com/_/minnesota-twins-news/minnesota-twins/tyler-duffey-shines-in-spotlight-start-r5440 

 

I think the FO saw Duffy did not have a strong enough third pitch and moved him to the pen.  I guess they could have seen that coming but if he had figured that third pitch out he could have been the 5th starter with Meija as depth.  It just didn't work out.

 

[gil4]

 

Your dating yourseld, old nurse.   I wonder how many people on TD know who Samantha Stevens is??

I was close - I guessed I Dream of Jeannie instead of Bewitched.  Same era, just slightly before my time.  Both went off the air well before we had color TV or more than 3 channels (1 CBS, 2 ABC, until one of the ABC affiliates switched ... to CBS - big help there.)  We did a lot more reading and listening to the radio than watching TV.

[drjim]

This isn't to get into a great debate about Duffey specifically, but it is a general illustration of how the widely acknowledged RP problem is related to the SP problem.

 

And moreover, on the frequent defense of "the new FO needed a year to evaluate" -- really? In regards to the MLB roster? Duffey, for example, was not some great unknown. Our new FO wasn't new to the sport of baseball. Not to say cut him, but it should be expected that the new FO could reasonably forecast his future without needing to reserve spots for him on both the SP and RP depth charts that are meaningful to our contention status.

Guess I don't see the problem with having him work as a starter in camp and then move to the bullpen after evaluation. Seems like a relatively common progression.

[Mr. Brooks]

Read Rand's article in today's paper...especially the comments.

I'd rather dunk my face in a vat of acid.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Guess I don't see the problem with having him work as a starter in camp and then move to the bullpen after evaluation. Seems like a relatively common progression.

You're missing my point, sorry. We ran out of viable starters AND relievers within about a month. With Duffey out of the SP mix after spring training, we only had a 6 deep remotely viable SP depth chart -- and yes, May was hurt, but Hughes ostensibly wasn't, so that's a health wash. And we saw how quickly Duffey became our best pen option, despite a pen at pretty much full health (O'Rourke was out, but I hope to goodness they weren't expecting more from Perk, and don't get met started on relying on Burdi, Chargois, and Jay again).

 

We seem to have under-bought our depth for both SP and RP. To the extent that our offense was pretty well set and had some upside potential, it was pretty odd to do nothing with that pitching staff, even if we weren't going to be aiming for the world series in 2017.

Edited August 1, 2017 by spycake

[drjim]

You're missing my point, sorry. We ran out of viable starters AND relievers within about a month. With Duffey out of the SP mix after spring training, we only had a 6 deep remotely viable SP depth chart -- and yes, May was hurt, but Hughes ostensibly wasn't, so that's a health wash. And we saw how quickly Duffey became our best pen option, despite a pen at pretty much full health (O'Rourke was out, but I hope to goodness they weren't expecting more from Perk, and don't get met started on relying on Burdi, Chargois, and Jay again).

 

We seem to have under-bought our depth for both SP and RP. To the extent that our offense was pretty well set and had some upside potential, it was pretty odd to do nothing with that pitching staff, even if we weren't going to be aiming for the world series in 2017.

We absolutely underbought pitching depth. But it is really hard to add quality minor league depth without subtracting from the major league roster. Or signing major leaguers and pushing down deserving prospects. They did inherit a massive mess.

[Kwak]

 

Did you see my list of FA SP above?

Forecasting contention in the offseason isn't a binary proposition, 0 or 1. There are degrees. There are a variety of moves we could have made to improve our chances for 2017 without sacrificing the future. (And if we failed to contend, they could have potentially improved our future by giving us an asset to flip like Garcia.)

Players also assess the probability that there new team will make the playoffs.  I'm confident that ATL was considered "unlikely" to be a playoff team this season--yet they had to pay ~$12MM to sign Colon.  What if the Twins outbid ATL?  Now what would people say/think?  I'm guessing not many would say:  "no such thing as a bad 1-year contract."