Article: Twins July Trade Candidates

[Twodogs]

 

Someone made a great point about Santana yesterday on another thread. We'd love to see the Twins trade for a solid veteran pitcher in the offseason. A guy who can eat innings, pick up wins, stop the bleeding and have an ERA somewhere in the 3.20 range. Isn't that what we have in Santana? Garcia is one thing - he's a rental. But the Twins have Santana under control and we need reliable starting pitching...I can see trading Santana only if the Twins are going "scorched earth" and trading everyone else as well. They'd better get quite a haul if they trade Santana. I'd much prefer the Twins kept him, myself!

Not only that, but if you trade him and get a minor leaguer where there isn't any guarantee then you need to go out and sign a FA to replace him in the rotation, who by the way, will most likely be more expensive than Santana.  

[Mike Sixel]

 

I'm not 100% sold on Garver being ready for that. I know he's a darling of TD but he may have some adjusting to do going up to the bigs. In my mind, if he demands playing time, Danny Valencia is super easy to trade.

 

I also think that with Castro at C and no real DH option, there's plenty of space for Garver to get time without making him a 1B platoon. I worry that if he struggles, we'll see Mauer playing every day and that's not ideal.

 

I can't imagine what Valencia does in the other 100+ games he's not playing at 1B. He's  not good. I'm not super interested in a guy that can only play 1/3 of the games, max, who doesn't catch. He really ties up the 25 man. 

[ThejacKmp]

 

Seth hit this earlier, but why couldn't Garver be a platoon with Mauer while playing catcher or OF on the days Mauer's at 1B?

 

If you're going to have Garver playing against LHP, you want him catching instead of Castro, not playing first in place of Mauer. You still would ideally have a 1B platoon partner. That isn't Garver unless you give up on him catching.

[drjim]

Garver = Granite? No way.

 

Up until last year Granite wasn't on anyone's radar. He was (and basically still is) a light-hitting speedster with a good glove at best. Did he ever crack the TD Top 20 prospects before this season? He's obviously not a bad player, but also has never had the potential of Garver.

 

Garver has been a steady performer since he was drafted, putting up good numbers with the bat, showing well in the AFL (twice), and improving defensively to the point defense-superstar Stuart Turner was made available and lost. Throw in the fact Garver doesn't have a Buxton-type guy blocking his spot on the big league roster, and yeah, the comparison with Granite has no merit.

 

And no one is comparing Garver to Buxton in terms of pure talent or ceiling, but he's much closer to that level of prospect than to what Granite is.

I don't know. Not saying it's flawless, but the recent mlb.com update had Garver at 21 and Granite at 24 in the system.

 

This is overstating what Garver is going to bring.

[ThejacKmp]

 

I can't imagine what Valencia does in the other 100+ games he's not playing at 1B. He's  not good. I'm not super interested in a guy that can only play 1/3 of the games, max, who doesn't catch. He really ties up the 25 man. 

 

First of all, Danny Valencia has played OF in the MLB level and is likely equal to Garver out there. He also can play 3B at least adequately. He's by no means a Vargas or a Byung Ho who can only DH/1B. The other 100 games Valencia is a backup infielder and pinch hitter.

 

Mauer and Castro both being LH really crimps the "Garver for backup 1B" mantra. Garver can't be the platoon for both of them. If Castro were RH, I would agree with you 100%. Garver could catch against righties and play 1B against lefties. But that's not reality. You need someone else because Garver should be catching vs. any LHP. That could be Valencia if Vargas/Byung Ho are not in your plans.

 

You're wrong when you say Danny Valencia isn't good. He isn't a complete player but he does one thing very well that is valuable - mash LHP. Career OPS .872. I think people here are blanching at Valencia because of his name and their prior experience with him.

Also, consider me on team Danny in this interaction. That's pretty crappy of Billy Butler. Also hilarious that guys who knew Butler a long time backed Valencia.

 

[ThejacKmp]

 

I can't imagine what Valencia does in the other 100+ games he's not playing at 1B. He's  not good. I'm not super interested in a guy that can only play 1/3 of the games, max, who doesn't catch. He really ties up the 25 man. 

 

14 pitchers ties up the 25 man. The Twins should have a place for a bat like Valenica/Vargas/Byung Ho.

[ThejacKmp]

 

Garver is the same age as Vargas and is hitting better than Vargas at the same level. Plus, Garver is just crushing lefties (1000 OPS) and is a better fielder.

 

Garver is crushing LHP this year but it's important to note that's only in 60 AB, a very small sample. He didn't have hugely pronounced splits the past few years and hit LHP at a .733 rate and .802 rate. Neither of those are bad but they don't scream "MLB 1B platoon". He may have developed in the past year but it just as easily could be SSS.

Curious what you base the better fielder on? Vargas isn't awful and Garver is relatively new to 1B.
 

[Mike Sixel]

 

14 pitchers ties up the 25 man. The Twins should have a place for a bat like Valenica/Vargas/Byung Ho.

 

we agree on this, btw.

[bighat]

 

The price for a pitcher as you describe wanting would  cost at least three player and probably Berios. Archer hasn't even done  as well as the pitcher you want.

 

The pitcher I was describing was Santana.

[bighat]

 

Or, no one has typed "future All Star", and he's 26 with an OPS of .900 in AAA, right handed, and was a bat first draft pick who they hoped could learn to catch who can offer value as a PH, C, potential platoon partner for Mauer, and if needed, can play in the OF in a situation where for some reason he's needed. 

 

Sorry Mike, I didn't mean to offend - I saw a post here suggesting Garver should be platooning with Mauer at first base in 2019.  To me that sounds like Garver Fever and the only cure is more cowbell!  We know next to nothing about this kid.  All I know is that he's playing well but before this year he's never even been on the radar.  He is indeed 26 and still playing in the minors which tells me something.

 

Seriously, I would love to see the guy get called up and play instead of Giminez. Just trying to put the breaks on the Garver speculation when the dude hasn't even faced a pitch yet.

Edited July 28, 2017 by bighat

[ahart10]

All this talk of Garver playing in the outfield doesn't make sense to me. This team needs a catcher that can hit. I can't recall a catcher moving to the outfield with success.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

All this talk of Garver playing in the outfield doesn't make sense to me. This team needs a catcher that can hit. I can't recall a catcher moving to the outfield with success.

Not that I would compare Garver with these guys, but:

 

Dale Murphy

Raul Ibanez

Jayson Werth

Wil Myers

Josh Willingham

 

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/92665530/many-converted-catchers-find-success-at-new-positions/

[ThejacKmp]

 

Not that I would compare Garver with these guys, but:

 

Dale Murphy

Raul Ibanez

Jayson Werth

Wil Myers

Josh Willingham

 

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/92665530/many-converted-catchers-find-success-at-new-positions/

 

The twins clearly should have moved Willingham back late in his career. It couldn't be worse than watching him play left field.

[ahart10]

Not that I would compare Garver with these guys, but:

 

Dale Murphy

Raul Ibanez

Jayson Werth

Wil Myers

Josh Willingham

 

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/92665530/many-converted-catchers-find-success-at-new-positions/

I'll give you Werth but would squabble over the others.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I'll give you Werth but would squabble over the others.

What do you mean?  Their defense was bad in the outfield?  Dale Murphy was a gold glove CF, and even Ibanez wasn't a liability by defensive metrics until he was 35 years old.  Willingham wasn't a disaster either in his younger days, it was enough for a solid bat to overcome.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Not that I would compare Garver with these guys, but:

 

Dale Murphy

Raul Ibanez

Jayson Werth

Wil Myers

Josh Willingham

 

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/92665530/many-converted-catchers-find-success-at-new-positions/

 

Bryce Harper.

 

and in the infield, Craig Biggio

Edited July 28, 2017 by Mike Sixel

[Shane Wahl]

I would like for the first six of these guys to all go.

[AlwaysinModeration]

I pulled up an old comment I posted this offseason, looking at Santana comps:

 

"Peavy pitched a 101 ERA+ at 33, then pitched two more years, 108 and 74 at age 34 and 35.

 

Guthrie posted a 132 at age 33, then went 102-95-72, done at 36.

 

Lohse posted 133 at age 33, then went 115-107-68, done at 36.

 

Millwood posted 88 at 33, then 127-81-115-90, done at 37.

 

Loiaza posted 108 at 33, then averaged 83 and was done at 36.

 

Doug Davis (106ERA+ age 29-33) posted a 108 ERA+ at age 33, then bombed to 57 over the next two years, done at 35.

 

Steve Traschel posted a 107, then posted 88 and 94 in his age 35 and 36 season, playing sporadically at age 34 and 37, done at 37.

 

Miguel Batista posted a couple of 103/102 seasons as a starter after 33, and became a solid closer for some of those years, lasting until 40.

 

Javier Vasquez posted 81 and 106 in his age 33 and 34 seasons and then retired.

 

Brad Radke, who posted a 110 ERA+ from age 29-33 posted a 104 at age 33, and then was done.

 

Finally, Ervin Santana pitched a 124 ERA at age 33, with a 101 ERA+ from age 29-33 (including years of 74 and 90 in that stretch.). He's headed toward his rapid decline phase, although he might post another 100+ year or maybe two if he is lucky. He also has a history with PEDs, which may have helped him more in the past than going forward. The Twins should trade him for whatever they can get."

 

I stick by that assessment. He's been good this year. He won't be good for long. Trade him now.

[ahart10]

What do you mean? Their defense was bad in the outfield? Dale Murphy was a gold glove CF, and even Ibanez wasn't a liability by defensive metrics until he was 35 years old. Willingham wasn't a disaster either in his younger days, it was enough for a solid bat to overcome.

Just that all but Murphy and Werth were better suited to DH. Biggio yes. But I don't count Harper.

Edited July 28, 2017 by ahart10

[Thrylos]

If the Twins can get the guy that Baseball America called "arguably the most dominant relief prospect in the minors" for John Ryan Murphy,  they should be able to get someone with a heartbeat for Hector Santiago.

 

The Twins should do now, what they should had done last off-season:  Trade Santana, Kintzler, and Dozier, as well as Garcia, for good young controllable pitching. 

Btw, not sure that the Twins were "wise" in not trading Dozier for DeLeon (if that were the trade offered.)  DeLeon has higher probability in contributing for the Twins when their young core will be getting into their prime (2019-2020) than Dozier. 

 

Again, I don't get the lack of love for Rosario vs Buxton.  If Buxton is still that highly regarded within the league, I'd love to see the Twins try to see what they can get for him.  If they can get someone like Starling Marte, who is a gold glove centerfielder who can hit and steal bases now (unlike Buxton) and Felipe Rivero (who is probably the best young bullpen arm in baseball), they would be nuts if they do not do it, because it will improve the team now and in the future.

[gil4]

 

gunnarthor, on 28 Jul 2017 - 09:58 AM, said:

Not sure where to put this but it was on Heyman's twitter timeline

 

https://twitter.com/RobertMurrayFRS/status/890713998190137345 

(Liriano/Twins? I can't get the Twitter link to work)

edit: forgot to quote when I first posted

 

That would be awesome. I still have the jersey in my closet. 

 

​That's probably the only reason it would be awesome. Maybe next year is the year he finally puts it together and wins a Cy Young.  (I've been thinking that for a decade; why stop now?)

 

 

[darin617]

Not sure why people are so insanely high on Mitch Garver. Many hitters can rake in the minors but have a very hard time making the jump to the majors. He could turn out to be great or he could be just the same as Buxton when he came up.

[Danchat]

 

Not sure why people are so insanely high on Mitch Garver. Many hitters can rake in the minors but have a very hard time making the jump to the majors. He could turn out to be great or he could be just the same as Buxton when he came up.

I don't see anyone who is insanely high on Garver. In my opinion, the Twins should call him up to fill in as a bench player who can play at C, 1B, and DH and see if he can hit in the majors. If he can, great, and if he can't, now we know. We're not going to find out by keeping him in AAA.

[Mr. Brooks]

Adding up your odds means that, on average, 3.58 of these players will get traded.

Not impossible, but seems quite unlikely to me.

[Darius]

No mention of Granite? I like the kid but is he traded because he is an odd man out without room for him anywhere? Perhaps left field but that would waste his defensive talents?

We could always play Buxton/Granite in L/R center and play a rover.

[Darius]

If Buxton is still that highly regarded within the league, I'd love to see the Twins try to see what they can get for him. If they can get someone like Starling Marte, who is a gold glove centerfielder who can hit and steal bases now (unlike Buxton) and Felipe Rivero (who is probably the best young bullpen arm in baseball), they would be nuts if they do not do it, because it will improve the team now and in the future.

This is madness.

[wabene]

Trading Santana makes the most sense. Sell high on a pitcher that has been pitching above his career averages, entering his mid 30s. His future production can easily be replaced in FA this winter, and the prospects he could net would be helpful going forward.

The thing I don't understand with this often stated line of thinking is how do people think it is easy to replace this kind of pitcher in free agency? Seems to me of all the past signings he is the only one who panned out. It would have to be a huge haul for me to be on board.

[jorgenswest]

I don't see anyone who is insanely high on Garver. In my opinion, the Twins should call him up to fill in as a bench player who can play at C, 1B, and DH and see if he can hit in the majors. If he can, great, and if he can't, now we know. We're not going to find out by keeping him in AAA.

What did they learn about Parmelee or Danny Santana or Polanco? Did their view change considerably after good numbers at the start of their careers? Should it? They have watched the player for years prior to the partial first season.

 

He could come up and post an OPS of 800 or 600 and that small sample shouldn't change their assessment of his skill at the plate. The big question for Garver is his skill behind the plate, They continue to develop that skill caching every other day in AAA. I am certain behind the scenes he is spending a lot of time watching video and learning how to prep for a game. Should they call him up now or develop that skill for another month and call him up in September? I would like to see him but I am not sure it is best.

[adorduan]

 

If the Twins can get the guy that Baseball America called "arguably the most dominant relief prospect in the minors" for John Ryan Murphy,  they should be able to get someone with a heartbeat for Hector Santiago.

 

The Twins should do now, what they should had done last off-season:  Trade Santana, Kintzler, and Dozier, as well as Garcia, for good young controllable pitching. 

Btw, not sure that the Twins were "wise" in not trading Dozier for DeLeon (if that were the trade offered.)  DeLeon has higher probability in contributing for the Twins when their young core will be getting into their prime (2019-2020) than Dozier. 

 

Again, I don't get the lack of love for Rosario vs Buxton.  If Buxton is still that highly regarded within the league, I'd love to see the Twins try to see what they can get for him.  If they can get someone like Starling Marte, who is a gold glove centerfielder who can hit and steal bases now (unlike Buxton) and Felipe Rivero (who is probably the best young bullpen arm in baseball), they would be nuts if they do not do it, because it will improve the team now and in the future.

You aren't going to get good controllable pitching for those guys. If you could it would have been done already.

[Otto von Ballpark]

The thing I don't understand with this often stated line of thinking is how do people think it is easy to replace this kind of pitcher in free agency? Seems to me of all the past signings he is the only one who panned out. It would have to be a huge haul for me to be on board.

Hughes worked out fine, for almost 2/3 of his original contract. (Don't let the extension fool you into thinking the original contract was bad.)

 

Nolasco didn't quite work out, of course, but even there he has recovered to post a 90 ERA+ and eat 180-200 IP a year over the last half of his contract. That's what Ervin was doing the year before we signed him.

 

I'm not saying trade him for just anything, but Ervin isn't entirely irreplaceable. In fact, I suspect he is replaceable enough that we won't get offered much for him in trade.

Edited July 29, 2017 by spycake