Article: Twins July Trade Candidates

[Seth Stohs]

For the past week, Nick and I have taken turns reviewing the players that the Twins could look to acquiring in trades from the various divisions. When that series of articles began, the team was just a ½ game out of first place. As the series came to a conclusion yesterday with a look at the American League East division, the Twins found themselves nearly six games out and four games out of a wild card spot.

 

At this point, the strategy has likely changed. Instead of being buys, the Twins are taking calls from teams to find out which players the Twins might be willing to “sell” by Monday afternoon’s trade deadline.As I’ve done in past years when the trade deadline approached and the Twins were (more clearly) sellers, I reviewed players in the Twins organization who could be dealt for something and gave a percent-likelihood that the player gets traded.

 

WHO IS SAFE (probably)?

 

Before digging into which players have at least some chance of being traded, it’s probably a good idea to consider which players will not be traded, for whatever reason. While the percent-likelihood that they are dealt may not be 0.00%, it is like 0.001% or similar.

• Joe Mauer will not be traded. He has a no-trade clause in his contract, and he became a 10-5 guy a long time ago.
• Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton, Max Kepler - Young, high-ceiling hitters who are yet to reach their primes are immensely valuable. They each will make the league’s minimum at least one more year.
• Jose Berrios, Adalberto Mejia - See the previous list and substitute the word “pitchers” for “hitters.”
• Glen Perkins, Phil Hughes, Ryan O’Rourke, Trevor May - These are 60-day DL guys. While there would be teams interested in Trevor May if he was made available, it would be very unlikely the Twins would trade him when they likely have high hopes for him in 2018, and beyond.
• Bartolo Colon, Hector Santiago - These guys are closer to being DFAd than to being traded.

TRADE CANDIDATES

 

First and foremost, this list is intended for entertainment purposes only. Twins Daily does not recommend or encourage making wagers on trade deadline activities. These percentages are simply educated guesses designed to create discussion.

 

Brandon Kintzler - RHP (75%) - Brought in on a minor league contract following an injury-plagued 2015 season, Kintzler began in Rochester, was called up a month later, was the team’s closer a month or so later, and in 2017, he became an All-Star. He has been remarkably reliable. However, he is at the end of his contract and will be a free agent following the season. His ability to close, or work in tough situations in the seventh or eighth inning could make him valuable to any playoff-contending team. Another All-Star who is an impending free agent at season’s end, Pat Neshek, went to the Rockies for three minor leaguers (none were Top 15 prospect types). Since Kintzler is a little younger, the Twins might be able to get slightly more return for Kintzler.

 

 

Jaime Garcia - LHP (55%) - When the Twins acquired him on Monday, they were buying, just 2.5 games out of first place, and even closer in the wild card. Now the team may be a seller, and he has yet to make his first start for the organization. The Twins gave up 19-year-old Huascar Ynoa for Garcia with a willingness to eat much of Garcia’s remaining contract. The Twins could look to trade Garcia, continue paying him at least some of his remaining money ($4.5 million or so), and get a higher-ranking prospect in return.

 

Ervin Santana - RHP (40%) - Santana may be a bit older, but he’s on a friendly contract for 2018 with an option for 2019. In other words, he’s far from a rental. A team could keep him for nearly 2 ½ years if things go well. Santana was great in April and May. He hasn’t been particularly strong in June and July, but he’s a veteran that most teams would be happy to see starting for them in the playoffs. The Rangers are in about the same situation and they’ve made Yu Darvish available, so the Twins would be wise to at least make Santana available and see what offers role in. He could be a backup plan to Darvish or Sonny Gray for the Yankees and Dodgers, while he makes a ton of sense for the Astros.

 

 

Eduardo Escobar - UT (37.5%) - This name might surprise many reading, but it does make a lot of sense. Escobar is beloved in the clubhouse, but if the Twins were to offer him arbitration this coming offseason, he is likely to make $4 million or more. That’s a lot for a utility guy. Now, if he plays as much and as well as he has in 2017 next year, he’d be more than worth it. But with Dozier, Polanco and maybe Nick Gordon and/or Engelb Vielma in the picture in the middle infield, and Ehire Adrianza fully capable of being a solid utility infielder for $3 million less, dealing Escobar while he’s playing so well may make a lot of sense. They could get a similar haul to what the Giants got for Eduardo Nunez this week.

 

Chris Gimenez - C (35%) - Gimenez clearly has a ton of respect in the game, particularly for his charisma and leadership skills. On field, he hasn’t been particularly good, but teams love adding guys like this down the stretch. The Twins wouldn’t get much, maybe even just some cash and a low level prospect, but I can see teams asking for him. It would allow Mitch Garver to be up for the final two months of the season as well.

 

Matt Belisle - RHP (30%) - Belisle’s overall numbers do not look good because of a handful of really bad outings, but he has been really good the last two months. He’s given up just one earned run in his last 16 outings (18.2 innings). The return won’t be real high, but he can be a solid 5th or 6th bullpen option for a good team.

 

Robbie Grossman - DH (20%) - Grossman was yet another strong minor league deal for Terry Ryan last year. Since joining the Twins, he has been a very productive hitter, primarily for his on-base skills, but he’s provided occasional pop too. He isn’t ideal to have in the outfield defensively, but there could be a team looking for a bench bat who could provide some versatility. He will be arbitration-eligible this offseason, and if he stays with the Twins, it would be an obvious choice to offer it to.

 

 

Kyle Gibson - RHP (17.5%) - The right-hander was the Twins pitcher of the year in 2015, but the last two years have been a struggle for him. He had one of his best starts of the year on Saturday, and by Tuesday, he was sent to Rochester where he pitched well on Thursday night. In his second run at arbitration this offseason, Gibson could make a raise, potentially getting $4.5-5 million. The Twins likely would not pick that up, but Gibson’s got enough pedigree that there could be a team out there that thinks they know how to turn things around for the right-hander. And they may be right. For some reason, he seems like a perfect fit with the Cardinals.

 

 

(One of) ByungHo Park/Kennys Vargas - DH (15%) - While teams likely won’t come to the Twins asking about these AAA (maybe AAAA) DH/1B, the Twins could go to teams looking for a bench bat, backup 1B/DH type in an attempt to drop one of them. Maybe they can find a taker. I thought Tampa made a lot of sense for Park since Logan Morrison and now Lucas Duda both bat left-handed.

 

 

Eddie Rosario - OF (12.5%) - Rosario has arguably been the Twins best hitter the last six weeks, so this would be a case of trying to sell high on Rosario. The decision to make him available would likely be based on the front office’s willingness to believe that Rosario’s improved plate discipline and walk rate over the last couple of months is sustainable.

 

Brian Dozier - 2B (10%) - There will be teams that will inquire about the availability of Dozier. Clearly the Twins were wise to not deal him straight-up for Jose Deleon. However, to this point Dozier has returned to a level at or slightly above his 2014 and 2015 numbers, as opposed to his historic performance in 2016. That’s still a valuable player, but the Twins will (and should) ask for more than teams are likely willing to offer. There are a lot of quality second basemen in baseball, and one of them, Ian Kinsler, is very likely to be traded which means there may not be a lot of teams in need of a second baseman. The Twins will happily keep him unless overwhelmed.

 

Ryan Pressly - RHP (5%) - Teams could or should watch Pressly and see the 96-98 mph fastball, and see that sharp breaking ball, and realize that he’s got some great stuff. Pitching coaches and coordinators likely believe that they can provide said pitcher with that little piece that he’s missing to turn things around. Pressly’s got stuff to be a great late-inning reliever, and he’ll probably get there some day. The Twins would be wise to hang on to him, especially since he can be optioned still this year. No need to sell low.

 

Taylor Rogers - LHP (2.5%) - Although I think Rogers could be part of a strong bullpen for the Twins for years ahead, I am including his name here. When I look at what the Marlins got for reliever David Phelps (who is similar, though right-handed, and older), I’d be incredibly curious what other teams might offer for a left-hander like Rogers who has been great for the Twins until the last few games. Unlikely to be dealt, but if a team is willing to give up three or four minor leaguers for him, I’d be curious.

 

----------------------------------------------------

 

It’s fun to guess what the team will do, but we still don’t know to what level the front office views this team. Sellers? Sellers only if overwhelmed? Buyers for long-term, high-talent assets? A combination of all of the above.

 

There may be some surprises in the list above, and by Monday, there could be other surprises, maybe some minor leaguers. It will be as interesting a trade deadline as we have seen in recent years. There could be five moves, or they could do nothing, and a case could be made for both strategies. At the end of the day, each trade (made or not made) would have to be judged on its own merit.

 

So, what do you think? Do you agree or disagree with the list above or any of the percentages? As a reminder, it’s important to remember that several of these player trades may make more sense in August rather than the July deadline.

 

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[HitInAPinch]

WHO IS SAFE (probably)?  Personally, for me, if I'm serious about building via trades, there is no "safe" list.  A single, talented player can garner more talented players.  

 

Falvey and Levine completed another trade, this one clearing Murphy off the team and picking up a nice AA prospect.  I would expect more of those types of moves.

 

Saw a couple articles about Twins drawing interest in Santana, Garcia, Kintzler, Dozier.  Excellent, although I'd kinda like to see Garcia pitch just one time. Somewhere in those trades, I'd hope there is a closer replacement.  I don't have a lot of faith in Ryan Pressly as a closer.  

 

If someone overwhelms me on Rogers, yeah, I'd trade him.  Heck, face the facts, I'd trade practically anyone.  Mom's not with us anymore, so she's safe...

 

 

 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

Another All-Star who is an impending free agent at season’s end, Pat Neshek, went to the Rockies for three minor leaguers (none were Top 15 prospect types). Since Kintzler is a little younger, the Twins might be able to get slightly more return for Kintzler.

Why would anyone care about age for a 2 month rental? No slight to Kintzler, but Neshek is unquestionably having the better season, a better career (including a previous all star selection), and postseason experience. Kintzler does have more saves but it appears most clubs are interested in adding setup men anyway, not closers.

[bighat]

Someone made a great point about Santana yesterday on another thread. We'd love to see the Twins trade for a solid veteran pitcher in the offseason. A guy who can eat innings, pick up wins, stop the bleeding and have an ERA somewhere in the 3.20 range. Isn't that what we have in Santana? Garcia is one thing - he's a rental. But the Twins have Santana under control and we need reliable starting pitching...I can see trading Santana only if the Twins are going "scorched earth" and trading everyone else as well. They'd better get quite a haul if they trade Santana. I'd much prefer the Twins kept him, myself!

[peterb18]

If the Twins think they will be serious contenders next year then I think Santana will remain on the team. It is too hard to find a front line pitcher like Santana. The Santana situation will tell a lot on how the front office views next season.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

When I look at what the Marlins got for reliever David Phelps (who is similar, though right-handed, and older), I’d be incredibly curious what other teams might offer for a left-hander like Rogers who has been great for the Twins until the last few games. Unlikely to be dealt, but if a team is willing to give up three or four minor leaguers for him, I’d be curious.

How do you get Phelps as "similar" to Rogers, even aside from handedness and age?  Phelps has struck out 30.2% of all batters faced dating back to opening day 2016.  That even includes a stretch of 5 starts last August where he struck out 32.7% of batters, with a 2.22 ERA and 2.94 FIP over 24.1 IP.

 

By comparison, Rogers had a 24.2% K rate last year which has plummeted to 18.9% this year.  Both figures largely propped up by higher rates vs LHB.

 

Rogers has a ton more team control (5 years after this year, vs 1 for Phelps), but they are such different pitchers I don't think Phelps' price in trade has any bearing on that of Rogers right now.  I get that Rogers has been a strong contributor to our 2017 pen, but he would get valued at something closer to a LOOGY on the open market right now.

[JaleelWhite FanClub]

Move Gimenez like yesterday!!!

 

The most important thing I read in the article was that by moving him, we'd give Garver two months in Minnesota. He's earned the promotion and getting the reps now would set him up to start 2018 with the big club.

 

Mauer's done after next year. Castro would have two more years (but nothing says the Twins couldn't move him or shift him to the #2 role). Garver getting time split between C and 1B would be ideal going toward the future.

 

To me, Garver, Gordon, and possibly Wade are the position players to fill in the spots next to Sano, Buxton, Kepler, Polanco (I still believe!) and Rosario (KEEP HIM!).

[gunnarthor]

I think the article is about right. I don't think Garcia, Santana or Dozier is traded but I do think Kintzler and either Grossman or Rosario will be. 

[Teddy]

Even when the Twins were in contention, I was advocating selling. While I'm loving the Twins playing prominent baseball in July, those six weeks in first place didn't look sustainable. However, they have a lot of talent that is nearing readiness for a big-league look, and they have a few guys who it makes sense to trade to fill some holes and set up for a really solid 4-5 year run of championship-level prominence. Ervin and Kintzler are the two names that make the most sense to deal right now. If Polanco was hitting, I'd be in favor of trading Dozier (for the right haul) and moving Polanco to 2B, but right now that doesn't look like a great move, so Dozier should probably stay.

 

Moving Escobar makes a lot of sense, from a sell-high perspective, too. However, I don't think anyone would take a flyer on Gibson, as he's just too erratic for what he's being paid.

[IndyTwinsFan]

 

Why would anyone care about age for a 2 month rental? No slight to Kintzler, but Neshek is unquestionably having the better season, a better career (including a previous all star selection), and postseason experience. Kintzler does have more saves but it appears most clubs are interested in adding setup men anyway, not closers.

While I don't disagree with the assessment, my belief is that most other teams likely view Kintzler as a 7th or 8th inning guy anyway.   I have a hard time envisioning another team looking at him as a legitimate closer candidate for their bullpen at this time.

[LeatherAntenna]

No mention of Granite? I like the kid but is he traded because he is an odd man out without room for him anywhere? Perhaps left field but that would waste his defensive talents?

[ThejacKmp]

 

Someone made a great point about Santana yesterday on another thread. We'd love to see the Twins trade for a solid veteran pitcher in the offseason. A guy who can eat innings, pick up wins, stop the bleeding and have an ERA somewhere in the 3.20 range. Isn't that what we have in Santana? Garcia is one thing - he's a rental. But the Twins have Santana under control and we need reliable starting pitching...I can see trading Santana only if the Twins are going "scorched earth" and trading everyone else as well. They'd better get quite a haul if they trade Santana. I'd much prefer the Twins kept him, myself!

 

I think the point would be that the Twins can get a nice haul of prospects for Santana and then go out and sign a similar guy with the money they would have spent on Santana (it would actually cost them more to get a similar guy because of inflation but that's life). If you can have Santana or similar guy + prospects, you take the latter. Especially if you think that Santana isn't going to be a lock to replicate this season.

[markos]

For me, I have identical trade likelihood for Garcia and Kintzler. If one gets traded, I can't see any reason to hang onto the other.

[ThejacKmp]

 

Mauer's done after next year.

 

If Joe Mauer wants to play past 2018, there will likely be a spot for him. Sano is going to be at 3B for the foreseeable future. Kepler is entrenched in the OF. The Twins don't have a big 1B prospect pushing his way to the minors. Palka has stagnated, Vargas seems like a bench bat and there's no one else exciting in the high minors. The closest is Lewin Diaz, a nice prospect but still a guy in A ball. And that doesn't even take into context that the Twins also have a DH spot with no clear takers.

 

Unless the Twins are going to go spend big at DH/1B in free agency (seems unlikely), Mauer is going to have every chance to be the part of a LH platoon at 1B. Given the draw his name still is, it's hard to see the Twins finding someone better in the short-term market. I can see a 2 year $10-12 million deal with the understanding that Mauer is going to be platooning at 1B/DH. He's well worth that money.

 

P.S. My offseason desire: the Twins sign Danny Valencia to a 1 year deal ($5 mill) and platoon him with Mauer. Dude mashes LH pitching and would be an ideal platoon with Mauer. And if the season doesn't work out, teams are always looking for a bench bat like that for the playoff run.

[hybridbear]

 

The decision to make him available would likely be based on the front office’s willingness to believe that Rosario’s improved plate discipline and walk rate over the last couple of months is sustainable.

Wouldn't the Twins want to keep Rosario if they think his improvements are sustainable & sell if they think it's a mirage? If you don't think he'll sustain this level of hitting you trade him now to a team that thinks he will sustain his level of play. If you think he will sustain his improved level of hitting then you keep him.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Someone made a great point about Santana yesterday on another thread. We'd love to see the Twins trade for a solid veteran pitcher in the offseason. A guy who can eat innings, pick up wins, stop the bleeding and have an ERA somewhere in the 3.20 range. Isn't that what we have in Santana? Garcia is one thing - he's a rental. But the Twins have Santana under control and we need reliable starting pitching...I can see trading Santana only if the Twins are going "scorched earth" and trading everyone else as well. They'd better get quite a haul if they trade Santana. I'd much prefer the Twins kept him, myself!

 

I tend to agree, but i also think he is a guy who could command an impressive return, so they have to have the conversations. And I think there is enough of a pitcher's market right now that someone may offer a huge package. 

[Seth Stohs]

 

How do you get Phelps as "similar" to Rogers, even aside from handedness and age?  Phelps has struck out 30.2% of all batters faced dating back to opening day 2016.  That even includes a stretch of 5 starts last August where he struck out 32.7% of batters, with a 2.22 ERA and 2.94 FIP over 24.1 IP.

 

By comparison, Rogers had a 24.2% K rate last year which has plummeted to 18.9% this year.  Both figures largely propped up by higher rates vs LHB.

 

Rogers has a ton more team control (5 years after this year, vs 1 for Phelps), but they are such different pitchers I don't think Phelps' price in trade has any bearing on that of Rogers right now.  I get that Rogers has been a strong contributor to our 2017 pen, but he would get valued at something closer to a LOOGY on the open market right now.

 

5 years vs 1 year is huge... See what the White Sox got for Adam Eaton... and no, I'm not saying the Twins should expect 3 Top 10 guys from some team for Rogers, but because he's got so much team control, there is a premium. 

[Seth Stohs]

 

While I don't disagree with the assessment, my belief is that most other teams likely view Kintzler as a 7th or 8th inning guy anyway.   I have a hard time envisioning another team looking at him as a legitimate closer candidate for their bullpen at this time.

 

I would agree, but the fact that he can do it may allow a winning team to use him in that situation when their regular closer has worked 2-3 games in a row. But he can also be an 8th inning guy... or a 7th inning guy... or a guy who comes in when you really need a ground ball to get out of an inning.

[Seth Stohs]

 

No mention of Granite? I like the kid but is he traded because he is an odd man out without room for him anywhere? Perhaps left field but that would waste his defensive talents?

 

I don't think he'd have very much trade value, and he's got too much talent to just give away. With that much team control and his age, he could be a 4th OF for the next 4-6 years, and he can start in CF and LF when needed. 

[Seth Stohs]

 

P.S. My offseason desire: the Twins sign Danny Valencia to a 1 year deal ($5 mill) and platoon him with Mauer. Dude mashes LH pitching and would be an ideal platoon with Mauer. And if the season doesn't work out, teams are always looking for a bench bat like that for the playoff run.

 

I can see that... though I'd just go with Garver as the platoon with Mauer at 1B since he'd be $0.5M instead of $5M, and use that extra $4.5M on pitching. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

I can see that... though I'd just go with Garver as the platoon with Mauer at 1B since he'd be $0.5M instead of $5M, and use that extra $4.5M on pitching. 

 

Garver should be up and playing 1B, LF, C, DH, PH right now, I'm with you on that Seth.

 

I think there will be 1-2 trades, mostly likely Gimenez (in August?), Belisle (sneaky good since the start of the year), Garcia. 

[Canizaro's Ghost]

I am glad Rosario has been hitting better lately, but he is a liability in the field. He has become enamored with his own arm strength and routinely seems to cost the Twins runs by throwing to the wrong base or making other mistakes. 

For me, Rosario is a low-ceiling, streaky player. If you can get something of value for him, I personally think they should do it. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

While I don't disagree with the assessment, my belief is that most other teams likely view Kintzler as a 7th or 8th inning guy anyway.   I have a hard time envisioning another team looking at him as a legitimate closer candidate for their bullpen at this time.

Right, that's basically what I meant.  Kintzler's only somewhat meaningful "advantage" over Neshek is saves (or more accurately, closer experience), and that's pretty meaningless in the context of this trade market.  He trails Neshek in virtually every other consideration (current season performance, career performance, peripherals, postseason experience).  It's still possible for him to get a slightly better return, because the market isn't that precise and there are plenty of shifting external factors, but it won't be because Kintzler is 32 and Neshek is 36.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

For me, I have identical trade likelihood for Garcia and Kintzler. If one gets traded, I can't see any reason to hang onto the other.

Only catch would be if they were fairly marginal returns, and they thought keeping them for the final 2 months might help retain them for 2018 if they so desire.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

5 years vs 1 year is huge... See what the White Sox got for Adam Eaton... and no, I'm not saying the Twins should expect 3 Top 10 guys from some team for Rogers, but because he's got so much team control, there is a premium. 

Sure, 5 years is a major difference from 1 year.  But aside from 2017 ERA, they are completely different pitchers, so it's pretty much irrelevant to trying to compare their respective values.

[gunnarthor]

Not sure where to put this but it was on Heyman's twitter timeline

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Not sure where to put this but it was on Heyman's twitter timeline

 

Maybe "connected to" as in "formerly played for".

 

Liriano would seem to be an ideal August waiver trade guy too, I could see the Twins keeping tabs on him in case they work their way back into the race.

[DJL44]

Kintzler's other advantage on Neshek is his $1M discount on remaining salary

[HrbekRules]

Trading Santana makes the most sense.  Sell high on a pitcher that has been pitching above his career averages, entering his mid 30s.  His future production can easily be replaced in FA this winter, and the prospects he could net would be helpful going forward.

 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Kintzler's other advantage on Neshek is his $1M discount on remaining salary

True, although that's pretty negligible.  Any team that cares about that $1 mil isn't going to be giving up more valuable prospects either.