Article: DOA At The Deadline

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

exactly

If even one of Jay or Stewart is pitching like Gonsalves right now, the Twins' drafts look a whole lot better. I've been following the draft for a long time and I know not to expect every first round pick to pan out... But the Twins haven't had a single first pick play anywhere close to their ceiling yet. The only guy who looks like he might do that is Gordon and he's still probably 12 months away from Minnesota.

 

Obviously, Buxton might turn into that guy at some point but thus far, he's been a big disappointment.

[kab21]

 

Seriously, it feels like you're trolling me right now. I'm just going to copy and paste the second paragraph from two posts ago:

 

"I'm not even saying the Twins have drafted badly, as they've acquired some nice pieces further down the draft board but their first round picks have been mostly underwhelming, which is a problem when you're picking at the top of the draft on a regular basis."

You changed the goalposts after your first comment. This isn't trolling. This is being consistent.

 

I go back further than that where you corrected someone that said 'their drafting has been very good'. 

 

No, the Twins drafting has been very good. Not acceptable as you stated. If you want to continue to disregard anyone not drafted in the top 5 then I will continue to disagree with you.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

You changed the goalposts after your first comment. This isn't trolling. This is being consistent.

 

I go back further than that where you corrected someone that said 'their drafting has been very good'. 

 

No, the Twins drafting has been very good. Not acceptable as you stated. If you want to continue to disregard anyone not drafted in the top 5 then I will continue to disagree with you.

How on earth am I moving the goalposts? I'll boil it down as simply as I can:

 

The Twins have drafted badly at the top of drafts. If I'm being generous, they've drafted below average at the top of the draft. Inversely, the Twins have drafted very well further down the board.

 

When I combine those two elements, I see an acceptable, if underwhelming, draft methodology.

 

If the Twins drafted so well, how did they manage to assemble a mid-pack farm system after picking second, fourth, fifth, and sixth in consecutive seasons? The only every day regulars/starting pitchers to graduate thus far have been Buxton (a disappointment) and Berrios (a very good starter). The rest of the pack has been pretty meh, if not outright disappointments. Outside of Gordon, they don't even have a top prospect from the first round of any of those drafts.

[kab21]

 

How on earth am I moving the goalposts? I'll boil it down as simply as I can:

 

The Twins have drafted badly at the top of drafts. If I'm being generous, they've drafted below average at the top of the draft. Inversely, the Twins have drafted very well further down the board.

 

When I combine those two elements, I see an acceptable, if underwhelming, draft methodology.

 

If the Twins drafted so well, how did they manage to assemble a mid-pack farm system after picking second, fourth, fifth, and sixth in consecutive seasons? The only every day regulars/starting pitchers to graduate thus far have been Buxton (a disappointment) and Berrios (a very good starter). The rest of the pack has been pretty meh, if not outright disappointments. Outside of Gordon, they don't even have a top prospect from the first round of any of those drafts.

You moved the goalposts (or criteria more accurately) by leaving out non top 5 draft picks.

 

The fact is that most of the Twins lineup was drafted or sign as int'l FA's. That is impressive for most teams. A guy like Rosario misses your credit by a year. Buxton might be a disappointment but he is 23 and likely to win a Gold Glove (deservedly). Berrios is definitely better than average. And there are plenty of other players with potential in those drafts and more recent ones. I think you have judged draft success too harshly. Just my opinion I guess. Perhaps they should have been perfect in their selections.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

You moved the goalposts (or criteria more accurately) by leaving out non top 5 draft picks.

 

The fact is that most of the Twins lineup was drafted or sign as int'l FA's. That is impressive for most teams. A guy like Rosario misses your credit by a year. Buxton might be a disappointment but he is 23 and likely to win a Gold Glove (deservedly). Berrios is definitely better than average. And there are plenty of other players with potential in those drafts and more recent ones. I think you have judged draft success too harshly. Just my opinion I guess. Perhaps they should have been perfect in their selections.

And you were doing so well until the bolded.

 

I have said multiple times I do not expect perfection. But what I do expect is for the team to not miss on two consecutive top six picks, which is an entirely reasonable stance to have.

[kab21]

 

And you were doing so well until the bolded.

 

I have said multiple times I do not expect perfection. But what I do expect is for the team to not miss on two consecutive top six picks, which is an entirely reasonable stance to have.

Stewart and Jay weren't consecutive picks so... They have hit on several picks (not all in the top 6) in that timespan and the early returns for the most recent picks looks very promising.

 

In fact there is a decent chance that they average one average or better player during that timespan. That is very good imo.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Stewart and Jay weren't consecutive picks so... They have hit on several picks (not all in the top 6) in that timespan and the early returns for the most recent picks looks very promising.

 

In fact there is a decent chance that they average one average or better player during that timespan. That is very good imo.

That's fair, which is why I called their drafts acceptable (good catch on Stewart and Jay, I always try to lump them together but Gordon was between them).

 

But I have issues with a team that drafts two pitchers near the top of the draft and bombs on both of them. I don't think that's an unreasonable stance to take. If even one of them looked to become a league average starter, my opinion changes drastically.

 

You can miss at the top of the draft. You can't miss more than once. I don't expect every player to become a star but at least half of them need to contribute. And it's not as if the rest of the draft has cranked out superstars to make up that deficit. The Twins got Berrios - 2012 was an excellent draft overall - but it's not as if Gonsalves is expected to step up and be a left-handed version of Jose. He's likely back of the rotation material. Very valuable in the 3rd or 4th round, whenever the Twins got him, but not exactly a replacement for missing on both Jay and Stewart.

[kab21]

 

That's fair, which is why I called their drafts acceptable (good catch on Stewart and Jay, I always try to lump them together but Gordon was between them).

 

But I have issues with a team that drafts two pitchers near the top of the draft and bombs on both of them. I don't think that's an unreasonable stance to take. If even one of them looked to become a league average starter, my opinion changes drastically.

 

You can miss at the top of the draft. You can't miss more than once. I don't expect every player to become a star but at least half of them need to contribute. And it's not as if the rest of the draft has cranked out superstars to make up that deficit. The Twins got Berrios - 2012 was an excellent draft overall - but it's not as if Gonsalves is expected to step up and be a left-handed version of Jose. He's likely back of the rotation material. Very valuable in the 3rd or 4th round, whenever the Twins got him, but not exactly a replacement for missing on both Jay and Stewart.

This article shows that picks 1-5 have an acceptable (1.5-2.5 WAR player) or superior player outcome 40% of the time. Your expectation that the Twins shouldn't have missed on two pitching picks (likely a lower chance of success than pitchers) seems unrealistic according to odds since the Twins have most likely hit on Buxton and Gordon as acceptable players.

 

Are you saying that the Twins should be at the 75% level of top 6 picks? And that is neglecting Berrios, Gonsalves, Kirilloff (who knows his outcome) or Lewis (the hype train is starting to roll).

http://www.fangraphs.com/community/success-rate-of-mlb-first-round-draft-picks-by-slot/